Indiana Basketball

Pat Forde had this explanation today how far Indiana Basketball has fallen. I'm not going to disagree with the argument that the high schools shouldn't have gone from one class to four clases and four tournaments. That's a bummer. But the rest of the article is kind of overblown. It seems like he's making too much of recent events with the Pacers, and too much of only 3 years of results in Indiana.

For the Pacers, clearly Artest has been a debacle. But they're still making the playoffs every year. Ron is gone, and they're moving on.

I really disagree with his college basketball points. Judging a state by a three-year trend is like judging a conference by a 3-year trend. There is just too much turnover in players to make a call.

The first "yeah, but..." that jumped into my head was the quality of the mid-major programs in Indiana. You will probably recognize these names as being solid basketball schools: Butler, Indiana St, Valparaiso, Ball State, Evansville. And don't forget the delightfully-named IUPUI. Yes, as Pat Forde points out, those guys have not done as well in even making the tournament in the past 3 years, but only four years ago Butler made the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed. Most mid-major programs do go through a cycle. What makes mid-majors so dangerous these days? Experience, relative to the major programs that only get one or two years out of their best players. These Indiana mid-majors are waiting for another magical senior class to cycle through. Look for them in the next couple years.

Pat's right that Notre Dame, Purdue, and Indiana have fallen way off from past glory. But Notre Dame is a football school first. Digger Phelps led them in the glory years of Irish hoops, but they're only going to challenge for a national title every few decades. Purdue looked ugly as Gene Keady passed his prime before passing the reins. I think both of schools will come back around soon enough. But the big question here is IU, and I'm expecting big things from the Hoosiers.

I think with the right coach, they should be as good as Kansas. And I think Kelvin Sampson might be the right coach. He took a football school in a football state and made it into a national title threat. I think he'll do more with a basketball school in a basketball state (a la Kansas).

So don't listen to Pat. Indiana basketball is going to be fine.

Jim Boeheim is old

World War II was still raging when James Arthur Boeheim was born on November 17, 1944. But looking at him, if you didn't know any better, you might believe it if someone told you he was in his forties. Especially if he was standing next to Dick Vitale's secret celebrity crush, Mrs. Julie Boeheim.

But today I heard my favorite Mayor of Bracketville on the Dan Patrick Show, sharing his wealth of knowledge on the college basketball scene. Without the face to go with it, I finally started to hear his age. Coach Boeheim is 61-years-old.

Of course, when Jimmy was born, Joe Paterno was already playing football at Brown University. So I guess the old SU golf team coach has a few more miles to go.

Officially a New Era

Some amazing facts:

This is the first time since the tournament went to 64 teams that no 1-seed has advanced to the final four, and the second time in history.

This is the first time since the tournament went to 64 teams that a non-big-time program (you know what I'm talking about) made the final four.

This is the first time George Mason has won a single game in the NCAA tournament.

This is the second time in history a double-digit team (LSU, as an 11, in 1986) has made the final four.


* * *

All year long, I've been trying to whittle down the field to a small group from which the champion would come. I got it down to 8 teams. All of those teams have been eliminated. If I was allowed to add teams on the same guidelines as I had coming in armed with my knowledge of college basketball right now, the only one I'd add would be UCLA. But clearly, any of these teams could win two games at this point. So my survivor theory is out the window.

For a few years, that pool of potential champions coming into the tournament has been growing. This year, even if George Mason doesn't win, the idea that any team from 1 to 50 could win the whole thing has gone from moderately far-fetched to entirely plausible.

Isn't that awesome?

The New Era Continues to Dawn

So I've got tickets to the national semifinals next Saturday in Indy. Fyall and I are driving out to see them with my dad. Of course, I should have known that all the teams I like who had a shot at making it that far would immediately lose. Duke dropped a deuce. Gonzaga gagged. (Any team except UConn) lost to Uconn. Oh well. Maybe George Mason will win! Seriously though, at least I can still pull for the delightful Wildcats.

But those questions will be answered tomorrow. Let's talk about today. LSU? Impressive. First they shut down JJ Redick. Then they outlast the talented, underachieving Longhorns to ensure that none of us have to hear the Texas fight song for another five months. Gotta hand it to them.

UCLA? Should've lost to Gonzaga. But they stifled Memphis tonight. If we learned anything about the Bruins, it's that Ben Howland is a great defensive coach.

The biggest news was my best bracket went down the tubes. I had Texas, Memphis (winning it all), UConn, and Villanova in the final four in one of only two pools I entered that wasn't a national Internet competition. Just for fun, if you catch my drift. But oh well. There is clearly no skill involved in picking these brackets. I'm just going to stick to my yearly golf pool from now on.

Back to the issue at hand. Did the cream rise to the top? Maybe, in UCLA's case. I certainly didn't buy into them coming in. But a bunch of people did pick them to Indy, and they'll be heavy favorites on Saturday.

But LSU? Are they really better than Duke? Texas? West Virginia? Couple shots here or there and any of those three could be headed to Indy.

What's my point? As usual, I don't have one. It's March. It's Madness. Whaddya gonna do??

I would like to announce that I'll be rooting for LSU on Saturday, based on the underdog factor. And if the Gators win tomorrow, it will be for me the least likable Final Four I've ever witnessed. But I'll still use my ticket.

Friday Night's Games

Vintage "survive and advance" tonight. It wasn't pretty for Villanova or UConn, but it was victory for both. I was really looking forward to a UConn-less tournament for most of the night, too. Oh well. That's a personal bias I have to deal with. For now, I'll look ahead to round 4 and predict the rest of the games.

I keep picking against Texas and they keep winning. So you know what? I'm going to pick them this time. Aldridge finally impressed me, and the rest of the matchups are a wash. Glen Davis isn't THAT good, yet.
Texas over LSU


Which team has looked the best thus far? Why, it's John Calipari's talented Tigers! UCLA were outplayed last night, and are outmatched here.
Memphis over UCLA


Huskie-haters...wouldn't it be great if UConn played against George Mason like they played against Albany? What if George Mason's easy win over Wichita State actually meant something to us? What if you replaced "7-seed Wichita State" with "7-seed Georgetown?" Now does George Mason have your attention? I guarantee you they don't have the Huskies' attention. And they're going to make UConn pay, and pull off one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history. They'll jump all over UConn's lackluster early effort, then hang-on down the stretch to win by 1 or 2.
George Mason over UConn
(Now would be a good time to note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only.)


I didn't actually watch the Villanova game tonight, so take the following with a grain of salt. Villanova is still my pick to win the championship at this point. I think they dispatch the Gators in a close game, then beat UConn (see how I'm covering myself there?) by around 10. In the finals, they get Memphis and beat them in a struggle. Why? I just like their make-up.
Villanova over Florida

The Ship Goes Down with Morrison

Gonzaga just can't break through to the next level, can they? They always lose one or two games short of really making a statement, and they always lose in the most painful way possible.

But the reasons are also the same. In the later stages of NCAA games, when things are tightening up, the Bulldogs really start to panic. And as they panic, they lean heavily on their star player. Morrison. Turiaf. Dickau. All have been called upon to carry the team across the final few minutes. All have failed.

Morrison had two chances to push the lead back to 7 in the final minute and a half, then one more chance to make it a two-possession lead. He missed all three. He didn't look for teammates, and his teammates didn't expect the ball.

I remember Turiaf missing late shots the past couple of years, and Dickau trying and failing to do it all four years ago. The reason Gonzaga has become great has been the variety of players they've had, not these solo acts. Why didn't Morrison get the ball to Batista on the weak side when he drew triple teams?

Ultimately, the blame falls on Mark Few, who lost control of his team down the stretch, and not for the first time.

Of course, Few is the key to this run of success. And he'll keep them competitive next year, though they might dip back to a 9-seed or lower until some new star rises to bring them back into the NCAA's elite.

To be sure, I'd say that the most talented team in the game was Gonzaga, not UCLA. And that itself is progress for the tiny school in Spokane. But at the end of the year, its how far you advance in the tournament that determines your legacy. The Bulldogs played to their seed, but they didn't play to their potential. Someday I hope they do.

Round 3: Thursday's Late Games

Howdy, howdy, howdy! For the record, I'm rooting for West Virginia, because I think Texas is terrible, and Gonzaga, because I want them to finally establish themselves as a mid-major power.

10:07 So far this game has been hideous, which plays into West Virginia's hands. They eventually hit their threes. Almost without fail. As a side plot, we're going to figure out whether LaMarcus Aldridge deserves to be drafted number one. I went to that Duke-Texas game in December, and Aldridge did not impress me.

10:12 You'd think that Texas could just out-athletic WVU. But here's the thing; West Virginia is basically a super-mid-major. Right now West Virginia is 3/8 from 3-point range. They're down 9-10 with 12 minutes to go in the first half. Coach Beilein understands that, given his team's shooting percentage, if they just keep shooting threes, they'll stay in the game. It's the ultimate Live-by-the-Three strategy. And it works. It's not going to win them a championship, unless Gansey gets back to that form he had in the middle of the Big East conference season. But it can take them a little farther.

10:21 Game tied at 15. West Virginia has is 5/12 on threes. Crazy!

10:28 Texas is suddenly up 23-15, but West Virginia is currently cold. I'm tellin' ya, they'll get it going again before halftime.

10:36 Aldridge has hit a couple mid-range jumpers. Fairly impressive. Not, STUNNING though. Definitely a pro.

10:41 Texas is up by 10 and currently out-athletic-ing WVU. This just in: I know nothing.

10:45 39-27 Texas. West Virginia scored last...their first 2 of the half. No sign from West Virginia of the Mountaineers getting back into this. But who knows... Gonzaga is up by double-digits too. Looks like a lame 2nd act...or is it???

10:47 We just realized the red-headed kid who has the first job out of his group of friends in the Verizon commercial is named Schmitty. That lead to a spirited discussion about the name Schmitty. Our old mailman was named Schmitty. He was a good mailman, needless to say.

11:32 Well, I was distracted for a while, but things have tightened up, so I'm back. West Virginia is down 2 with a little over 10 minutes to go. The Zags are holding off a UCLA surge, still up by 11 with 17 to go. Heard a couple of interesting nuggets on ESPNradio. The first was a comment that there isn't much too LaMarcus Aldridge, which I completely agree with. He's lanky and long and can shoot. He doesn't have amazing moves. He hasn't shown spectacular dribbling or rebounding. But he looks solid, and in this day and age, a sure-fire solid NBA player with some upside might be worth a high pick.

The other tidbit I grabbed was that John Calipari isn't going to show his team much film - only about five minutes - of whoever their opponent ends up being for their Saturday game. He's going to tell them to "just go out and ball." I think that's kinda cool. Coaching is a funny job. Sometimes it works brilliantly. Other times it backfires. At the end of the day, players win games. Rarely is the coach the crucial difference in the game. We all know this. Um. So I don't really have a point, other than I like Calipari a little more because his strategy seems unique. That's it.

11:46 OK, this game just got real fun. Aldridge is really starting to look good, but West Virginia is holding their own despite being mis-matched. Texas is up by 4 now, under 4 to play. I'm excited for a good finish.

11:58 Pittsnogle is bleeding all over the place, and they just let him check back in. It's March Madness, baby! But with 27 seconds to go, the Mountaineers are down 5.

12:07 Yoiks! What a finish! Texas wins it after trading threes with WVU in the final 6 seconds. Ahhhh...March. Gonzaga looks like they're keeping UCLA at arms length, so I'm going to sign off here. If UCLA comes back, I'll give you my thoughts tomorrow. Or not. It's my blog, sucka.

Round 3: Running Diary - 1st pair of games

I'm sitting in front of the TV, and in front of my computer, and I'm having thoughts I want to share. It's the start of the 2nd half already, but I may as well running diary-it-up.

8:24 Duke trailing by 4. Redick just missed an open short jumper then turned it over next possession. Of course, anyone who read my Gerry v. JJ post knows that Redick has never had a really great performance in the NCAAs. Wouldn't it be a great game if they were facing off right now? I mean, even from a neutral perspective?

8:28 15 minutes to go in the game, Duke down by 6, and Redick is getting mad. When Gerry gets mad, it generally means points. I'm not familiar enough with Redick to know what happens to him. OK, I'll never mention the Pride of Scranton again. I liked Hak way more anyway.

8:32 OK, since the half began, I've seen 1-2 travels and at least 2 fouls not called on Duke, and 1 or 2 fouls called on LSU that were suspect. I'd say that the refs were calling it for Duke, but I know the head official, Tim Higgins, because he's a Big East ref and I can honestly say that he's just bad. His crew will make 10 atrocious calls a game, but they'll generally even out, and he'll be voted best official by the Big East coaches.

8:36 What I'm seeing is Redick being shut down by good man-to-man defense. First time all year, I think. Duke still down only 5, though.

8:44 LSU still can't pull away...and DeMarcus Nelson hits a three to cut it to 2 with 11 minutes to go. You have to wonder how much better Duke would be if DeMarcus had played the whole season. Duke run coming??

8:46 Duke now leads 42-40 after gorgeous back-to-back alley-oops to Josh McRoberts. 7-0 run. And let me tell you, Dick Enberg is really excited. Good ol' Dick...still hasn't been overcome by the Pat Summeral factor* just yet.

9:02 I just spent 15 minutes trying to remember Jim McKay's name. Meanwhile, neither team has taken controll of this game. It's going to be a great finish. 47-47 with 5:35 to go. JJ has only 6 points of 2-13 shooting. And they IDed Garrett Temple as the defender who's been guarding him.

9:07 A minute ago, Jay Bilas said, "The offensive rebound has been LSU's best offense." The Tigers just grabbed another one and drew a shooting foul at the final TV-timeout. It's not just Glen Davis doing to damage. Mitchell has 9 boards and Thomas has 14. Sheldon Williams is overwhelmed, giant forehead and all.

9:17 1:32 to go, LSU by one with the ball. I'm not feeling it for Duke. Redick needs to step up and show some sparkle he hasn't shown all game. That's right. Sparkle.

9:23 Duke falls into a coma on defense, then Greg Paulus takes a crumby lay-up against a couple of the best shotblockers in the tourney. Needless to say, LSU is shooting foulshots up by 3.

9:25 Sheldon Williams's college career is about to come to an end because he couldn't box out Glen Davis.

9:26 Sheldon Williams's college career is about to come to an end because he couldn't box out Glen Davis twice in a row, the 2nd time coming with Davis shooting and no other Tigers in the paint.

9:27 Goodbye Duke. Funny thing is, I'm not even that bummed. They didn't deserve to win. 62-54.

9:30 Meanwhile, Bradley is down 74-58. Too bad. But they had an impressive run. Unless Bradley comes back, I'll pick it up back here for the late pairs of games.


*Pat Summeral factor: when an announcer gets so old, his senility is uncomfortable (or wickedly hilarious, if you're an insensitive jerk like me). See also: Ralph Kiner, Ken Venturi, Daniel Shore, Jim McKay. Keith Jackson can't see and is far from sharp, but he's still somehow graceful, and has avoided the Pat Summeral factor.

In Case You Missed It...

This afternoon, ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, The Sports Guy, the man with my dream job, hit the 2-hour mark for an online chat.

Now I'm not a huge ESPN.com chat guy. The only other "person" I've ever watched in the chat room is Hec and Vic, on Sunday morning, when I'm looking for some last minute advice for my fantasy football teams. But I have to say, about 45 minutes in, I realized this was something special.

As one of the chatters pointed out (and everyone was aware of what was going on the whole time), usually guys only get to like 7 minutes in an hour. But the Sports Guy was cranking them out so fast, you were assured of something new every time you hit the refresh. It was unreal.

Bottom line is this is one of the hardest working columnists in sports, and yet he gets a ridiculous amount of flack for not pounding out enough material. What's up with that? And this was another running topic in the chat room. Who are these people that log on to SG World, don't see a new column, and it gets them so enraged that they'll send hate mail about it? I'll know the Sports Sauna has made it when people get mad at me for NOT getting a regular dose of sharp analysis that makes them feel like they're beating themselves with a birch branch.

Oh, and I asked one question of the Sports Guy, but he didn't answer it. So I sent him an envelope full of anthrax. (That was a joke, Mr. Cheney.) I asked him to comment on an interesting fact that Gammons reported the other day, and Fyall pased on to me; turns out that the MLBer who visits Cooperstown most frequently is Ichiro! Isn't that sweet? Yet another reason (along with stadium and Edgar Martinez) why it's cool to be a Mariners fan.

WBC: Thumbs Up!

I just caught the last game of the World Baseball Classic and I'd be remiss if I didn't give The Sports Sauna's official vote of confidence. I didn't watch as much of it as I wanted, but I preferred this to spring training for sure, and even found it a little more compelling than your average regular season game. It meant a ton to all the players, and that was clear to the viewer.

I also realized that I knew only two players tonight (Ichiro and Otsuka), but that wasn't even a turn off. Part of it was Ichiro alone made Japan fascinating, but mostly it was the storylines of the two teams.

You had Cuba, finally proving that it could play with anyone else in the world. And you had Japan, managed by the great Sadaharu Oh, playing their unique style and finally establishing that brand at the top of the world.

If they can find a better time or schedule to do it so that more stars would participate, that's great. But as long as just as many participate as this time around, I think the WBC will be successful. Actually, my biggest issue was that it was going against March basketball. If I really get into the Classic three years from now, it could really get me in trouble at the office. Assuming I have a job by then...

NCAA: Huskie Hatin'

"I wish one of our players had half the heart of Gerry McNamara."
-A UConn fan to Fyall at the Big East Tournament

"They might be the least likable...to a basketball purist, they might be the least likable champion ever."
-ESPN's Doug Gottlieb on the Dan Patrick Show this afternoon


It's really becoming a popular line in NCAA commentary: UConn has the most talent in the tournament, but they don't have the heart to get it done.

On Friday, they were down - way down - to 16-seed Albany before a late, late surge put them over the top.

On Sunday, they were way up on Kentucky before a late surge by the Wildcats almost caught them.

Exhibit A in the argument is Rudy Gay, who many feel might have the most talent of any college player, but jut doesn't seem to give enough effort most of the time.

Marcus Williams is vital to the team, but should he even be on the team after being caught stealing laptops and trying to sell them on the Internet before the season? His less-talented accomplice was given the boot.

Josh Boone has really developed in his three years on the Huskies. But he's not a guy they'll look for down the stretch to close out games.

Rashad Anderson is a real danger, but he had zero points in the first round game!

Would it really be a shock to see them lose to Washington next week? Those Huskies survived a great battle with Illinois, coming from 11 down to grab the victory. If UConn does go down, it will be because they don't have a leader like Brandon Roy.

But here's the thing. UConn has lost 3 games this year. The first was at the beginning of conference play at Marquette, when the Golden Eagles asserted themselves and kicked off a surprisingly successful season. The second was at Villanova, a loss that UConn later avenged at home to the Wildcats. And the third was to Gerry McNamara in the Big East tournament.

UConn is now 29-3 and in the Sweet Sixteen. Pretty good for a team with no heart. Now, with the easiest road to the Final Four of any 1-seed ahead of them, it will be a major shock if the Huskies don't get to Indianapolis. And I think they'll do it. Once there, the road is harder. And we'll see how UConn fares in what will certainly be close games, possibly including a third meeting with Villanova.

Of course, heart or no heart, I have to admit that I always hate the Huskies and would love to see them go down to George Mason. And I'm quite pleased to have Doug Gottlieb on my side for that one.

Stolen Article: Jay Bilas

I found myself nodding my head to some comments Jay Bilas made today. Since it's an insider article, I thought I'd illegally excerpt it here and see if ESPN.com sues, which would probably be the highlight of my life.

- - -
Excerpted from "Looking Ahead: UConn's Road Looks Best"
By Jay Bilas
March 20, 2006
Re-printed here without the knowledge of ESPN.com or Mr. Bilas...

Deserving of the NCAA or not? That's not the issue.Too many people are evaluating these NCAA Tournament results in a vacuum, and trying to justify inclusion or exclusion by virtue of this weekend only. Sadly, that is not the way college basketball works; it never has been and ever will be. Remember, there have been upsets in years past, and there have been bigger upsets in years prior to this one.

Has the Missouri Valley Conference justified its four bids? Were the Big East and the Big Ten overrated? Did Air Force, UAB and Utah State confirm they should not have been included in the field of 65?

The answers are no, no and no.

If the Missouri Valley Conference had lost all four of its first-round games, the league still would have had four teams deserving of inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. Selection as an at-large team is about the regular season, not the results of the NCAA Tournament. Actually, you could make a great case for the MVC having deserved five or six teams into the field based upon what those individual teams did during the season. Creighton and Missouri State each had the resumes of NCAA teams, and both could have won early round games.

The fact that Seton Hall, Marquette and Syracuse lost in the first round does not diminish the strength of the Big East, which proved to be the best conference in the country. Seton Hall lost to the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference, Wichita State. The Hall was an inconsistent team all season long, so a major downer was not a shocker. Marquette lost to a very good Alabama team, and Syracuse lost to a solid Texas A&M squad that could have easily been in the Sweet 16.

On the flip side, UAB, Air Force and Utah State are all good teams capable of winning the games in which they played and perhaps beyond. They just didn't on those particular days in those particular games. That's all.

This tournament is about matchups and single-game scenarios. It is a completely new season, and everyone is 0-0. The lower seeds are dangerous because they are good and play without fear of losing, and the higher seeds are much younger and more inexperienced. There is nothing to lose for the lower seeds, only gravy. The high-seeded big shots can sometimes play tight because there is a heavy weight of expectations, and if the big shot loses, it knows it will never hear the end of it. It is easy to tell someone to play to win, and not to fear losing, but you can see how some of these inexperienced younger players are playing tight, while some lower-seeded seniors are playing freely. You see a lack of aggressiveness on the part of the higher seeds, while the lower seeds play with great freedom. Navigating this tournament is a mental challenge, perhaps more so than a physical one.

A lot of these games were pinpointed as upset specials, with the potential for a lower seed triumphing. A lot of games have come down to a single play to determine the outcome. Nobody ever said these teams couldn't play. What we did say was that the resumes of certain at-large teams did not measure up to some of the teams left out. That's all. Would anyone really suggest that Northwestern State would beat Iowa in a five-game series? Do you really believe that George Mason is better than North Carolina? Is Bradley better than Kansas? Was Bucknell better than Kansas last year? If so, did the committee completely gag on the seeding of the tournament? Of course not. Would anyone dare say Hofstra could not have won an early round game in the NCAA tournament? Of course they could have. Heck, many teams in the NIT are capable of winning an NCAA Tournament game on a given night. That is not the point, and it never has been. When you get down to the end of the line in the selection process, the teams all look the same, and all of those teams have proven they can lose. The measure is how many good teams were on your schedule, and how did you do against those good teams. A team that has more wins against quality competition than the next team should have a leg up in the selection process, unless you truly believe the team with the lesser resume is truly the better team. Once the tournament begins, any good team can win on a given night. That has been proven.

- - -

Well said, Jay. And after another great first weekend, you have to once again tip your caps to the NCAA for even having a 65-team tournament for basketball, and getting the vast majority of the field right.

What a weekend!

The first weekend is over, and it was bloodier than a video game. Ain't it great?

First off, mega props to Mr. Anonymous from Waukesha, WI for having the guts to come right out and challenge me on my UW-Milwaukee pick. You get the first ever Official Sports Sauna Towel Award for Achievement in a Tiny Blog. Actually, I'm trying to bribe my way to a ticket to UW-Milwaukee game. Last season I went to a couple U of Buffalo games, so I know how fun it is to cheer for a good mid-major team. Was Waukesha rocking when Oklahoma tumbled or was it too busy enjoying Carroll College's first ever trip to the NCAA Division III tournament?

My brackets are in pretty bad shape, as usual. I would say the biggest surprise was the UNC loss. Clearly, Roy Williams, like Jim Boeheim, is a great coach who occasionally fails to have his team mentally prepared for the NCAAs. Oddly enough, however, they do this in completely opposite fashions. Jim Boeheim is incredibly laissez-faire, business as usual about the tournament. The man knows more about the college basketball scene than any other coach, so you can be sure he has the team prepared strategically. But emotionally, its up to the leaders on the team and perhaps the assistant coaches to provide the motivation. This strategy was DIRECTLY responsible for SU's victory over Roy Williams's Jayhawks in 2003. My friends who went down to the game saw the Orange running amuck on Bourbon Street the night before. Then they came into the first half completely loose and built up a lead that would prove to be insurmountable.

Meanwhile, Roy had his Jayhawks wound up so tight they couldn't even hit free throws. I know that before he lost his title, Roy would talk all season about how much he wanted to win a title. Much more than other coaches. But Kansas just kept getting upset. Well, Roy pulled it off last year, despite my skepticism. But now he loses again to a team he shouldn't lose to, with a team that has a lot of talent. I dunno what to think. His best coaching job ever, but it ends with another choke.

Speaking of best coaching jobs ever, Thad Matta and the Buckeyes went down as well. But don't give me that "the Big Ten was overrated" crap. You can't judge a conference by the NCAAs. Last year, two Big Ten sent two teams to the final four, after a sub-par regular season and everyone said they were underrated. I think you judge a conference by its overall head-to-head record with other conferences. A lazy way to do that is to just look at conference RPI, which is a measurement based on who you play and how you do. So I think the Big East and the Big Ten were the best two conferences this year. Individually, all of the Big Ten teams and many of the Big East teams did pretty lousy in the tournament this year. I guess the only lesson is not to pick your brackets by conference.

I'm down to 5 teams left from my original pool of 8 that I thought the eventual champion would come from. Duke, Memphis, Gonzaga, UConn, Villanova. I still believe it. I can't believe Texas will hold on much longer. I'm excited about the Gonzaga-UCLA matchup...if any team snuck up on me this year its the Bruins, but I'm still not convinced they're championship-caliber. And I think Villanova and Uconn are on a collision course.

So let's make some more picks, shall we? Call it a 2nd chance bracket offering. Here's your Elite Eight results:

Atlanta
Duke over West Virginia

Oakland
Memphis over UCLA

Washington DC
UConn over Wichita St.

Minneapolis
Villanova over Georgetown

And the Championship game
Villanova over Duke

That's right. I just like the feeling I'm getting from Nova these days. I think the Ray Allan eye thing really brought a close team even closer. They have the heart to beat UConn and the talent to beat Duke. Plus, I can root for them because they're not the Hoyas or the Huskies. And Nova student Jamey was always my favorite of my little brother's friends.

NCAA: Round 2 Predictions

16 games. I tell you who's gonna win 'em. NOW.

Starting in Atlanta, the upper left-hand corner of my bracket...

Duke
LSU
West Virginia
NC St

Comments: Herb Sendek knocked off a 2-seed in the 2nd round last year. He'll do it again tomorrow against the poopy-colored Longhorns.

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Now the city by the bay. No, the other city. Oakland.

Memphis
Bradley
Gonzaga
UCLA

Comments: I liked what I saw from Bradley. They reminded me of past Cinderellas who stuck around a couple rounds. Lot's of moxy. You can't teach moxy. You're born with it. I should know. (Is it spelled moxie or moxy?)

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The biggest city in the District of Columbia...Washington.

UConn

(Interlude: They just showed a bunch of highlights from the last 25 years of NCAA. It included one of the most underrated plays in sports history: Hak Warrick's block against Kansas to preserve the lead in the finals. It also included Julie Boeheim. I have nothing more to add about that.)

Illinois
UNC
Wichita St.

Comments: Washington-Illinois is a toss-up. But both are better teams than Tennessee, who loses to another great MVC team.

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St.Paul's wishes it was hosting an NCAA region, but instead it's Minneapolis.

Villanova
Boston College
UW-Milwaukee
Ohio State

Comments: Every year a team beats Florida in the first 2 rounds. This year, it's UW-Milwaukee. Some things never change.

Day 2: The Dawn of a New Era

A few final thoughts as the day winds down...

-This is a new era of the NCAAs, when no seed has an easy game. Even the 1-seeds had to battle in the first round. One big reason for that this year was the lack of upsets in the small conference tournaments. Think about it this way. If Northwestern State had been upset in its conference tournament, that team probably would have gotten a 16-seed. Then Albany would have been a 15 seed and the strongest 15-seed, Winthrop probably, would have been a 14. But what if Winthrop was also upset? That team also gets a 16-seed, pushing another 16 seed up to 15, and a 15 up to 14. See how that works? Upsets in small conferences thin out the field, giving weaker teams stronger fields. One more reason to keep an eye on those early conference tournaments in the future. If all the 1-seeds are winning, watch out for more upsets in the tournament.

But really, the bigger reason is parity. Mid-majors keep their players for four years, while majors see their players flee to the NBA early. The playing field is more level. And March is more Mad.

-If Texas survives against Penn (they're up 7 late as I type this), I don't think they'll go much further. Penn really exploited Texas's biggest weakness: a lack of a true point guard. A more talented, athletic team that puts a lot of pressure on the ball will knock off the Longhorns. Too bad UAB is on the wrong side of the bracket.

-In this last round of games, all of the lower seeds were leading at halftime. In the four games at the Palace of Auburn Hills, all of the lower seeds led at halftime. I love it!

-Good job by the committee in giving Bradley a bid. This team can really play. The difference between how close they've played Kansas (currently beating the Jayhawks by 4 with 2 minutes to go) and how close Murray State has played UNC (Tar Heels about to win) is that Bradley looked tough, while Murray State looked pesky. Lots of good basketball in The Valley.

One thing that has killed Kansas all day long as been a fundamental move we all can copy on the playground: the ball fake. Kansas has been fooled by fake passes and pump fakes all over the place. It's like they don't ball fake in the Big 12 or something. Even just looking off the defense has opened up holes. And Bradley has all but sealed it...

-I've never seen a team as good at dunking on the fly as UAB. They're all so tiny, but give them an inch and they'll slam it. They're just so comfortable on the run. Fun to watch when they're clicking.

-One trend I'd like to stop before it starts...I can already see next year the experts telling everyone to bet against the major conference tournament champions because so many of them lost this year. Syracuse is one thing; Gerry killed himself to win the Big East. But otherwise, I think it's just a fluke. It's not like the dates have changed this year. Nothing like this has happened before. I'd call it an anomaly.

-In case you were wondering, 8 double-digit seeds won in the first round. The last time that many upsets occurred was 2001, when 9 double-digit seeds won in the 1st round. That year things settled down in the 2nd round. 12-seed Gonaga was the only one of those 9 teams to make the Sweet Sixteen, and they did it by beating the 13-seed, Indiana St. All four 1-seeds made the Elite Eight and 1-seed Duke played 2-seed Arizona in the finals.

But I think more of the little guys will stick around this year. Here's who I'll be looking at in round 2:

-UW-Milwaukee: Looking for their 2nd straight Sweet Sixteen
-Bradley: Impressive team playing hot and cold Pitt
-NC State: I'll betcha there aren't four 2-seeds still alive in the Sweet Sixteen. Texas didn't fare well the last time they played a team from Tobacco Road.


And then there were 32...

Day 2: Running Diary - 2:30 games

3:30pm
Woo-hoo! I'm at my parents' house, so I've got access to all four games right now. Northern Iowa leads Georgetown by 4 at the half. Could have been more, but Georgetown seemed to get itself together at the end of the half.

So. Illinois trails WVU by 6 halfway through the 1st. This is a tough draw for the Mountaineers. The Salukis are always in the tourney, and have 3 wins in the last 4 years.

Oral Roberts sticking with Memphis 10 minutes in. Mouthy Bobs trail by 6.

Villanova can't get the offense going in their game. 10-6 Wildcats with 7 minutes to go in the first. Remember: my theory is that the first 16-seed to win an NCAA game will come out of the play-in game and utilize that momentum. That's Monmouth this year.


3:44
Well, as soon as I switched to the Nova game, the Cats ran off a 10-2 run to take a 12-point lead, and I'm not seeing much from Monmouth. Oh well.


3:48
The Mouthy Bobs, on the other hand, just took the lead by 1 against Memphis. I've been saying "nay" all week to the folks who thought Memphis was a weak 1-seed, but this nay-sayer might have to rethink his nay-ing.


3:50
Some guy named Larry Owens just made a ridiculus lay up off a terrible ally-oop pass. With 5:19 to go, ORU leads Memphis 33-30 and the crowd is loving it. Apparently, a lot of the lame duck Arkansas fans are sticking around for this one. It's Madness!


3:59
One game is at halftime. The others are on commercial. Life sucks.


4:05
Northern Iowa has a 6'8" guy guarding 7' Roy Hibbert, who has 15 points now, but is being out-muscled for rebounds.

Gus Johnson is calling this game. I know that Bill Simmons thinks Gus yells way too much, but I like his style in March. A back-and-forth game like this deserves a yell every time a shot goes up. And then when he somehow kicks it up an extra notch in the final minute, well, that gets me on my feet. Quite frankly, he's my favorite play-by-play guy in CBS's arsenal of announcers.


4:33
OK. I'll admit it. I found the Sports Guy's newest column and got sucked into that. Meanwhile, Georgetown is up 5 with 1:45 to go. Might be pulling away here. No other game has a single digit margin. Could be a dud round of games.


4:36
Northern Iowa...down by four and fouling with 20 seconds to go. Stick a fork in em. I guess my next best option is the Mouthy Bobs, within 10 with 14 minutes to go.


4:49
My mom just called from New Jersey and I had the most intelligent sports conversation I've ever had with her. She asked me how the SU game ended last night because she had fallen asleep, then said it was tough that Syracuse had to play again so soon after the four games in a row last week and wasn't surprised that Gerry couldn't go. That's the way things are in Syracuse during the Glory Years of Orange Basketball; even my mom is on top of things.


4:52
The Mouthy Bobs and Monmouth are taking turns cutting their deficits to 9, but they can't get any closer. Clearly, 16-seeds are closer to 1-seeds than ever before. But neither of these guys is going to pull it off. Still one last hope in Albany, the best (by RPI) 16-seed ever.


4:57
Randy Foye hits a nice little runner after Monmouth cuts the lead to 7. You know what? Add Villanova to the list of teams not getting enough hype at this point to cut down the nets. What's not to like about these guys? Not as much talent as UConn, but more heart. No single player as good as Redick, but so much harder to game plan for than Duke.


5:01
West Virginia crushed the Salukis. 18 points is an impressive margin in a 6-11 game. I like my "Last Second Bracket" pick of West Virginia to make the final four. They can definitely beat Texas.


5:21
And both top seeds advance. That'll do 'er for me. 40 Teams still alive...

Day 2: Running diary - Noon games

OK. I'm in front of the TV at 1:00pm. Four games on. Davidson is leading OSU at half by 4. NW St is within 2 in the 1st against Iowa. Bucknell and Arkansas are tied. Arizona is beating Wisconsin 35-18 with 7 minutes to play in the first. Life is good.

1:04
Bucknell-Arkansas is on CBS here. No complaints. But I want to see what NW St is doing against Iowa, a game that is tied. I can't get the free video feed to work on Sportsline.com. Lame. XMIevents.com would do better. I'm going to head over to my parents house in a bit. Big screen TV. HD. March Madness package. Bingo.


1:08
Part of me thought that last year's win was a fluke for Bucknell, and that a 9-seed for a Patriot League team was ridiculous. But these guys are playing like they belong. They're not intimidated by Arkansas or the loud Arkansas fans that have made the drive to Dallas. I think their tough non-conference schedule and the success they've had in it as well as last year's experience have really helped them.

I think one great way to spot an upset is if the smaller school has played against a couple major conference teams and hung with them; they don't even need to have pulled out a win. These schools always hang in their first round games. NW St. is another one team that fits in this category. Some others to watch later on...

-Kent St. played Rutgers, S. Illinois and Syracuse fairly tough this year.
-Murray St. lost to Cincy by 4, Tennessee by 11, and S. Illinois by 4.
-Penn lost by 13 at Duke and 7 to Nova.

I think those teams will hang around a bit in their games, if not pull off a shocker.


1:26
They switched to the Davidson-OSU game. Davidson leads 33-29. There's a lot at stake here. If Ohio State loses, everyone who picked them far because of all my Thad Matta talk will hate me forever. I'll lose all credibility and be mocked by my friends.

But why should that be? Here's the thing: they call it March Madness for a reason, and this is the deepest field in NCAA history. Good teams are going to get upset. Good coaches are going to go home early. And it's going to happen more and more often as college basketball tends towards parity. Rare is a final four lacking a team or two that could've gone home much earlier had a shot been made or missed.

Let's remember how OSU got here. Thad had to convince the 6th best team in the Big 10 last year that they were better than everyone said they were. He had to convince him that they had something to play for, despite the possibility that they could be banned from the NCAAs this year. And he had to convince him not to pay attention to the hype that next year's team is getting. He did all that. And now his team is supposed to believe him when he says Davidson might give them a fight? If he loses now, is he a bad coach?

OK. I've covered my back. But it might not have been necessary. The Buckeyes have opened up a 6 point lead.


2:13
I'm making some weird Betty Crocker concoction that you add water to and microwave and it becomes cake. I'll let you know how it turns out.

Ohio State pulls it out by 8. Nice effort by Davidson. Iowa had pushed their lead into double digits but NW St has cut it to 9 with under seven minutes to play. Arizona is leading by more than anyone.

But this Bucknell game is pretty entertaining. Arkansas has more talent, but Bucknell has shot its way to a nine point lead.


2:20
Not sure who this color commentator is, but he made a comment I haven't heard before.

"In the end game, you need guards more than you need big men."

Makes sense. Whether you're ahead and being pressed or behind and need good quick decisions leading to good shots, the guards are key down the stretch. I guess that's why an outstanding point guard is a prerequisite to winning a title.


2:29
Crap! NW St pulled it to 3 points with under 2 minutes to play and I'm nowhere near a March Madness satellite package. Hopefully CBS will Q/V it for me. Except Bucknell's lead has shrunk to 2 points. Best scenario is the Iowa game goes to OT so I can see the end of that too.


2:30
Bucknell's best player is named Betancourt. The Cuban baseball team has a player named Betancourt. See what I'm getting at?

Bucknell is not located in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania but in Havana, Cuba.


2:32
YES! CBS Q/V's it to NW St, who cuts it to 1 as I watch! Go...um...NW St's mascot!


2:33
Nice! Back to Bucknell after an Iowa timeout! I love March!


2:35
Bucknell and Arkansas tied with 1:15 to go.

NW St down 2 with the ball and 14 seconds to go.

And CBS is all over it. Well done, people!


2:37
Northwestern St. wins on a buzzer-beater from the corner!!!! AHHHHHHH!!!!


2:38
Back to the Bucknell game. Bisons up 2, shooting free throws with 30 seconds to play.

Arizona's win just went final too. Turns out Wisconsin thought the season ended in January. Morons.


2:39
You have to wonder if Iowa's lost just cost Steve Alford the Indiana job. If Indiana wants to hire a coach from within the Big 10, they won't be able to interview him and take their time with the process. They'll have to go right in and remove him like a bandaid. One motion: RIGHT OFF!!


2:40
Bucknell missed both free throws, then Arkansas panicked too much on offense and didn't get a good look.

Now Abe Badmus steps to the line for Bucknell. Bucknell is so deep, they're pulling players out of the 18th century.

I just want to reiterate that Abe Badmus is shooting free throws. Abe Badmus...shooting his 2nd free throw to make it a 4-point game. Got it! Good ol' Abe!

And Bucknell wins! Well done! Jolly good!

So Ohio State, Arizona, Bucknell, and the Northwestern State...umm...players advance!

* * *

-I love... seeds. I love... regions.
-Paul, are you just looking at things in the NCAA and saying that you love them?
-I love bracket.
-Do you really love the bracket or are you just saying it because you saw it?
-I love bracket! I love bracket.

Day 1: Would you rather...?

Two questions.

1. Is there any doubt that a healthy Gerry McNamara would have given the Orange that extra little push to get over the hump when the lads pulled it to within 4 late in the 2nd? Even if he was only healthy for the final six minutes?

2. Would you rather Jim had rested Gerry in Georgetown game, thus throwing away a shot at the Big East championship just so the Orange could go into the tournament rested and healthy? SU probably would have gotten an 8, 9, or 10 seed.

If you're doing a movie about Gerry McNamara, the climax is the Big East championship. Then in the week before the game, we see Gerry hobbling around in immense pain, trying to hide it, trying to suck it up one more time, only to fall disasterously short. Or maybe right after the joy of the Big East championship, they show a still shot of Gerry with the text, "One week later, exhausted and beat up, McNamara played a painful 23 minutes and didn't score a field goal for the only time in his career. The Orange lost 66-58."

For one week, Syracuse was the biggest story in College Basketball. Tonight they paid the price for that.

- - -

I thought Texas A&M was extremely well-coached. Billy Gillespie is going to do good things down there.

- - -

Big East went 0-3 today. But tomorrow the big guns roll out. Pitt might be just as tired as Syracuse was, but if West Virginia and Georgetown can get past their WVC opponents, either could make a little run. And we all know UConn and Villanova can both go all the way.

- - -

Watching Southern hang around with Duke, it struck me how much the talent in college basketball has dipped. Duke used to crush their first round opponent. They're still considered one of the two or three best teams in the NCAA, but they just don't have quite as much talent.

In fact, nobody ran away with their game from the get-go today. The most dominating performance might have been Wichita St against Seton Hall! I'm thinking we'll see a 4 or 3 or even a 2 go down tomorrow. Maybe more than one.

Teams that should be ready for a fight:
4. Kansas (v. Bradley of the MVC)
1. UConn (Albany has highest RPI for a 16-seed in history)
2. Ohio St (Davidson's played a couple major teams)
3. Iowa (Northwestern state has too)

Day 1: Tide Rolls On

Late in my bracket-filling-out, I started to believe in Marquette, possibly through to the sweet 16. Clearly, I'm an idiot. Mike Gottfried might be a good March coach. Well, unless he has a good team. Look at these recent results for Alabama:

2006: advance to 2nd round as a 10-seed
2005: lost in 1st round to UW-Milwaukee as 5-seed
2004: advance to Elite Eight as an 8-seed
2003: lost in 1st round as 10-seed
2002: lost in 2nd round to Kent St as 2-seed

- - -

Winthrop joins Pacific as nearly-Cinderellas. From what I caught, sounded like Winthrop played just as tough as last year against Gonzaga. Congrats on a good season, and count me as one who'll keep an eye on that program in future tournaments.

- - -

Isn't it kind of bittersweet when a team pulls an upset over a mid-major? Like Montana knocking off Nevada. It's just not quite as fun as if they had beaten Washington or Pittsburgh or some other Big East team.

Same sort of thing if a major team pulls an upset as a low seed. Like if Texas A&M wins, at least from the perspective of non-SU fans, won't that be a lot less fun than Vermont's win last year?

If major Xavier beats mid-major Gonzaga, I'm going to puke.

Day 1: Mike Webb!!!

How about little Mikey Webb of Pacific? Back-to-back fast break pull-up threes to stake Pacific out to a 6 point lead in OT against BC! Pacific 2:46 away from their third straight 1st round win.

Earlier, UW-Milwaukee won their 2nd straight 1st round game. And Wichita St. knocked off Seton Hall. Is this the year the mid-majors take over?

NCAA: Final Thoughts

Last minute tips while browsing team schedules...

-Florida hasn't really played ANYONE outside of the SEC. Their best non-conference wins? Wake Forest and Syracuse, which ended up not being as good as they seemed at the time. The only reason they held off South Carolina was they lost to the Gamecocks twice in conference play, and just ask UConn how hard it is to beat a team three times in a year. They didn't beat Tennessee in two tries. Why is everyone in love with these guys?

-UCLA's best win by seed is Nevada. They lost twice to Washington. They lost at Memphis and at home to West Virginia on the Day the Big East Roared. That's a 2-seed and Final Four threat?

NCAA: 65 Teams That You've Seen Before

After 10 years of following the NCAAs, things are starting to look familiar. I'm seeing teams that I've seen before, and I'm not talking about the names on the front of the uniform. In fact, I think I can compare every team in the field to a team from the past.

16-seeds
Hampton is Alabama A&M 05
Lost the play-in game. They weren't let back into the tournament. Those are the rules.

Southern is Alabama St. 04
Thumped by Duke in the 1st round.

Oral Roberts is Fairleigh Dickinson 05
You feel kinda weird saying their name. And they got blown out in round one.

Monmouth is Delaware St. 05
Hung with the 1-seed (Duke) for a while.

Albany is Vermont 03
We all wanted them to hang with the 1-seed. But they didn't.

15-seeds
Winthrop is Hampton 01
Knocked off a 2-seed in the first round.

Davidson is SE Louisiana 05
Expectations met with a loss.

Belmont is Wagner 03
Never heard of them before. Haven't heard from them since.

Penn is Valparaiso 04
Recognizable name led some to pick them. Didn't translate to a W.

14-seeds
Northwestern St. is Niagara 05
Couple murmurs of an upset possibility, but it didn't happen.

Xavier is BYU(12-seed) 03
We haven't seen a team from a near-major conference seeded this low in a long time. That BYU lost in the 1st round.

Murray St. is Murray St. 02
No one picks the Racers, but they're occaisionally a tough out.

South Alabama is Bucknell 05
Snuck up on a highly regarded 3-seed.

13-seeds
Iona is Vermont 05
Lots of seniors led to a Day of Destiny.

Bradley is Indiana St. 01
MVC team proved to be a legitimate danger.

Air Force is UTEP 04
Suspect at-large went nowhere.

Pacific is W. Kentucky 03
They had been in the tourney three years in a row and put up a good fight. (But W. Kentucky hadn't won a game two straight years.)

12-seeds
Texas A&M is BYU 04
Big football school's basketball team fell just short against Syracuse.

Kent State is Butler 03
Fear mid-majors from mid-west.

Utah State is Wisc.-Milwaukee 05
Frequent tourney participant, occaisional Cinderella.

Montana is Weber St 03
How do these random Big Sky teams get such high seeds every once in a while?

11-seeds
S. Illinois is S. Illinois 02
Fear the Saluki.

San Diego St. is Georgia St. 01
A mid-major 11-seed with a coach who had success at a major program. Lefty Driesel won a game this year.

George Mason is Wyoming 02
Wyoming is an 11-seed?! And they're playing good tournament team?! They'll never win! (They did.)

Wisc.-Milwaukee is (12-seed)Wisc. Milwaukee 05
I know I've used them already, but this one is literally true. UW-Mil won last year with great rebounding. They return 7 seniors this year.

10-seeds
NC State is (9-seed)Nevada 05
A year after making a run, this Wolf Pack didn't.

Alabama is Iowa 05
Solid but not great major team was better the following year.

Seton Hall is NC St 05
NC St. had less than 20 wins, but made the Sweet 16.

Northern Iowa is Creighton 05
MVC tourney regulars were very good, but faced an even better team from the Big East.

9-seeds
UNC-Wilmington is (13-seed) UNC-Wilmington 02
Seahawks won one.

Bucknell is (6-seed) Gonzaga 02
Zags finally got a high seed then got upset the first time they could be. I think Bucknell is overrated at a 9-seed.

UAB is UAB 04
Knocked off Kentucky then lost.

Wisconsin is Pitt 05
9-seed from strong conference didn't finish season well and lost in the first round.

8-seeds
George Washington is College of Charleston 99
2-loss Charleston underappreciated with an 8-seed but couldn't beat the 9.

Arkansas is LSU 03
Hadn't heard much from these occaisional SEC powers. Didn't dance long.

Kentucky is (9-seed)Arizona 04
Elite teams on an off-year don't fare well in the 8-9 games.

Arizona is (9-seed)Arizona 04
Elite teams on an off-year don't fare well in the 8-9 games.

7-seeds
California is West Virginia 05
Watch out for those 7-seeds with star power. This Leon Powe guy is apparently pretty good.

Marquette is Charlotte 05
They both end in -tte. Charlotte didn't win a game.

Wichita St. is So. Illinois 05
MVC's highest seed won only one game.

Georgetown is (13-seed) Princeton 96
Back-door cuts! Yay!

6-seeds
West Virginia is Utah 05
Tall white center with an outside shot led the Utes to the Sweet 16.

Indiana is (5-seed) Iowa 99
Coached by lame-duck (and the program's all-time leader in career wins) Tom Davis, the Hawkeyes made the Sweet-16. Sometimes players rally around their leader, even if it's too late.

Michigan State is Missouri 03
The year after a shock run isn't always as good, especially when the regular season was a little disappointing.

Oklahoma is Texas Tech 05
A good coach could squeeze an extra win out of a fairly ordinary-looking 6-seed.

5-seeds
Syracuse is (7-seed) West Virginia 05
Many thought the Mountaineers couldn't keep the momentum going either after their Big East finals appearance.

Pittsburgh is Georgia Tech 05
The Yellow Jackets had a nice, experienced backcourt but couldn't do more than one win.

Washington is Florida 04
Florida was a 5-seed a year after getting a very high seed. Lost in the first round to a mid-major tourney regular.

Nevada is (2-seed) Gonzaga 04
Zags couldn't turn their highest seed ever into more than one win.

4-seeds
LSU is Syracuse 05
Talented team with an inside force who will be playing in the pros someday. Could go a long way, if they don't look past their first round game.

Kansas is Kansas 04
The last time they were a 4-seed the Jayhawks went to the Elite Eight.

Illinois is (7-seed) Indiana 03
The year after being National Runners-up, Indiana only won one game.

Boston College is Boston College 04
Lot's of returners from the team that got the same seed and only won one game.

3-seeds
Iowa is Oklahoma 05
Solid team without stars went two and done.

Gonzaga is Gonzaga 05
Same team plus Ronny Turiaf onle won one game. Is Adam Morrison that much better this year?

North Carolina is Syracuse 03
Best player was a brilliant Freshman forward. Team improved with a new player taking over at point guard halfway through the season. Coach had been there before. Couple perimeter threats. National Champions.

Florida is Florida 01
Billy Donovan is a great recruiter and a terrible tournament coach. From 2001 on, he has not made the sweet sixteen and he's been upset in the first round every even-numbered year.

2-seeds
Texas is UConn 05
Talented, but lacking in chemistry, the Huskies lost in the 2nd round.

UCLA is Oregon 02
Backcourt-heavy Pac-10 team went to the Elite Eight. Not sure UCLA is quite as good, though.

Tennessee is Florida 03
The last time a team with 7 losses from the SEC got a 2-seed, they lost in the 2nd round.

Ohio State is Kentucky 98
The last time a coach won a national championship in his first year with a program. Ohio State is less-talented. But Thad Matta is the greatest coach in college basketball history.

1-seeds
Memphis is St. Joeseph's 04
Everyone picked St. Joe's to lose in the 2nd round, but they turned out to be as strong as their record suggested, falling just short of the final four.

Duke is Maryland 02
Maryland's best player was a guard. Its second best player was a big man. If I had to be honest, though, it's tough to find a champion that won with basically one amazing guard, one dominant center, and a bunch of scrappers. We'll see.

Villanova is Texas 03
Texas was the 2nd best team in the Big 12 and had one great guard the year they made the final four. Villanova has many great guards.

UConn is UNC 05
The Tar Heels were the most talented team in the country with future pros all over the court. They lost a couple games here and there throughout the season but got it done in the tournament.


See? We've done this before. Anyway, here's my picks:

Duke, Gonzaga, UConn, Ohio State
UConn over Duke in the final

Now let the Madness begin. Again!

Gerry v. JJ: End Game

In 2002, two of the greatest three-point shooters of all time began their college careers at my two favorite college basketball programs: JJ Redick at Duke and Gerry McNamara at Syracuse. For four years, as they both wrote uniquely remarkable legacies, I couldn't help but compare them every step of the way. With a possible sweet sixteen cataclysmic confrontation awaiting, I thought it was time to explain where they stand.

Like Finny and Gene, Patton and Rommel, Disraeli and Gladstone, the best way to understand either JJ or Gerry is to understand the counterpart. As an added bonus, I think this comparison will help explain the whole "Gerry is overrated" thing.

Let's break it down by year.

2002-03
---------Pts ---Ast ---Stl ---3PM ---3P% ---FG%
Gerry --13.3 --4.4 ---2.2 ---85 -----.357 ----.401
JJ ------15.0 --2.0 ---1.2 ---95 -----.399 ----.413

Gerry: When Billy Edelin is suspended for the beginning of the season, Boeheim is forced to put Gerry into the starting lineup to begin the season. Gerry hit 4 threes in the opener and scored 14 points. The perfect complement to Melo and Hak all season, Gerry hits 6 threes in the 1st half of SU's only National Championship.

JJ: Starts the season coming off the bench. Scores 14 points with 3 threes in 19 minutes in the opener. Doesn't play less than 24 minutes for the rest of the season and ends the year in the starting lineup. 2nd lowest point output of the season (5) comes in the Devil's loss to eventual runner-ups Kansas in the NCAAs.

Edge: Gerry - SU needed a stopgap PG. Gerry responded by dishing out 4.4 assists per game, something Redick has never come close to. For that reason, the Orange wouldn't have won the title with Redick instead of Gerry. It's not like you can ask for more than those 6 threes in the first half. The significant edge in steals is nice too.

2003-04
---------Pts ---Ast ---Stl ---3PM ---3P% ---FG%
Gerry --17.2 ---3.8 ---1.7 ---105 ---.389 ----.385
JJ ------15.9 ---1.6 ---0.7 ---102 ---.395 ----.423

Gerry: Year 1 of 2 for the "Hak and Mac Show." Gerry beats Georgetown on the road late in the season with a three at the buzzer. With a thin bench, Hak and Mac take SU into the Sweet Sixteen where they are upset by Alabama. Gerry scores 43 points in the first round against BYU.

JJ: Redick leads a roster full of NBA players (Deng, Duhon, Ewing) in points and minutes. JJ is steady in the NCAAs, but not spectacular. The Blue Devils lose a classic to UConn in the Final Four.

Edge: Gerry - By this point, we've noticed that JJ is a pretty freakin awesome 3-point shooter. But we still see Gerry through the scope of the title last year, and some late game heroics this year. JJ has zero games over 30 points. Gerry has two, one in the tourney. And like last year, his edge in assists and steals really stand out. But the real kicker here is a memory I have of a conversation with my SU buddy, PhilGeorge, about who was better. For the sake of the debate, I argued a bit for JJ, but only half-heartedly. Gerry was clearly better.

2004-05
-----------Pts ---Ast ---Stl ---3PM ---3P% ---FG%
Gerry ----15.8 --4.9 ---1.9 ---107 --- .340 ---.370
JJ --------21.8 --2.6 ---1.1 ----121 ---.403 ---.408

Gerry: Gerry is again 2nd fiddle as Hak wins Big East Player of the Year. But Gerry's scoring average dips, as the sophomore class starts to contribute on the offensive side. His 3P% dips lower than either of his first two seasons and his FG% continues to drop. He does not score more than 30 in a single game this season. Scores only 11 points against Vermont in the first round loss.

JJ: This is the year JJ made the leap from very good to great. His 3P% is significantly better than Gerry's now. And he continues to shoot well in general; he has started to master the drive off the shot fake, which opponents must respect. JJ has 3 30+ point games this year. Interestingly, JJ only averages 12 points in the NCAAs. He has never really had a great game in the NCAAs.

Edge: JJ - Simply, JJ made a leap while Gerry stayed about the same, even declined in some ways. JJ is proving he can be a number 1 scoring option. Gerry...not so much.

2005-06
---------Pts ---Ast ---Stl ---3PM ---3P% ---FG%
Gerry --16.4 --6.0 ---1.9 ---103 ----.340 ---.357
JJ ------27.4 --2.6 ---1.4 ---120 ----.412 ---.477

Gerry: For one season, Gerry must be the #1 option for the Orange. But his scoring barely changes. Only his assists improve noticeably. However, he reminds everyone of his knack for clutch play by hitting late threes in four straight games to lead Syracuse from the bubble to a Big East Championship and a 5-seed in the NCAAs. Interestingly for our comparison, he did not score more than 17 points in any of those games.

JJ: Redick, meanwhile, is clearly one of the top two players in the nation with a remarkable 27.4 scoring average and brilliant shooting percentages. His FG% is particularly impressive for a gunner, and betrays a great inadequacy of Gerry's. JJ, version 2K6, is the ultimate college shooting guard. He scores over 30 14 times, including 5-straight in ACC play and 3 games over 40. Perhaps his best game comes in the Meadowlands against 2nd ranked Texas. JJ hits a personal best 9 3-pointers and finishes with 41 points in a rout, witnessed by yours truly.

Edge: JJ - Frankly, Gerry does not have the talent to match the heights reached by JJ this season. Playing again and again against the toughest defenders at the college level, Redick could not be stopped. He scored less than 20 only 6 times, four of those in the first month of the season. Before the Big East tournament, Gerry's season was fairly disappointing. His heroics must be taken into consideration, but Syracuse would have been a better team with JJ this season.

2006 NCAAs - We can only dream of a matchup for the ages in the Sweet 16. Perhaps they'd bring out the best in each other.

Summary
There is one chapter still to be written, but there are some conclusions to be made. JJ is and always was a better pure shooter. And in his Junior year, Redick made The Leap that Gerry never matched. Redick became a #1 threat for top-ranked team. Syracuse was less successful when Gerry inherited the #1 mantle.

McNamara was moved from his natural position as shooting guard to the point at the start of his career and proved to be a fine passer. Had he played with the cast Redick did, would Gerry have scored significantly more points? Doubtful. Remember: Redick didn't have a true point guard his third year, the year he made The Leap.

JJ is a better player, plain and simple. Statistically, he has had a better career. Talent-wise, Gerry is a notch below. Anyone who places him alongside Redick in terms of pure talent is, pardon my language, overrating him. But I think that's where a lot of people outside of Syracuse were putting him. Gerry's face was always on ESPN.com's ads for ESPN Full Court, right next to JJ's. The Big East is carried by ESPN and Syracuse played a lot of nationally televised games in Gerry's career. Plus, those 6 threes in the NCAA final were unforgettable. Gerry got more than his share of hype. Hyped players are often overrated by those who do not know them.

But Syracuse fans and savvy basketball fans know that Gerry is no JJ. We never expected him to roll off 30 point games. We knew what we were getting from Gerry. A bunch of threes, great hustle, and always a chance down the stretch. We didn't overrate him, but we almost forgot what made him great.

Gerry has a championship that he earned as much as anyone on that 2003 team did. JJ has yet to play in a championship. Gerry has a richer history of clutch play than JJ does. JJ has not been great in the NCAAs.

10 years from now, what will we remember? Gerry's role in the 2003 title. Occasionally, someone will roll a clip of "McNamara's Tournament" as the Big East Championship has been dubbed. For JJ, we have four years of buckets of threes, highlights of that beautiful stroke coming from the black-haired, black-sneakered gunner.

History will remember JJ as the better player. But history loves champions, and unless JJ wins a title this year with Duke, Gerry will always have the slight edge in terms of greatness because of 2003.

The Glory Years of SU Hoops

I realized it in 2004, when I was reading about another stellar recruiting class brought in by Jim Boeheim. These are the glory years of Syracuse Basketball. And I've been spreading that message to every SU student and fan I meet, trying to keep a city that thinks the world is ending every time we lose from missing out on an era.

Who knows how long this will last? Boeheim is showing no sign of slowing down, but the man is in his 60s. He's also brilliantly consistent, no matter how strong or weak the conference gets. So if the Glory Years end on his watch, we might not notice it until a few years pass and recruiting and the program dips.

Winning the championship triggered this era, notching us up a level in prestige, and thus recruiting. The next year we made the sweet sixteen, with the marquee game being Gerry's 43-point performance in the first round.

Many called last year a failure. The Orange were the victims of the second worst first round upset in the tournament. But Hak won Big East player of the year honors and lead us to our first Big East Championship in 11 years. Yes, we fell well short of our potential in the NCAAs. But winning the Big East is a great achievement. I'd compare it to winning the Premiership but getting bounced in the first round of the Champions League. Looking back, it was a great year - an outstanding year, really. (Not to mention that Vermont was a team of destiny last year and would've beaten just about anyone that night.)

This year is almost the opposite of last year. We dubbed it a failure at the end of the regular season, writing off Gerry McNamara's Band. But the Glory Years of SU Hoops are, happily, far from over. Another Big East Title, one of the greatest ever. And a chance to do some damage in the bracket. We're playing with a free pass, now. Who knows what else this installment of the Glory Years will bring?

And next year...if you haven't heard of Paul Harris, well, remember his name. He's the most highly touted Freshman we've got since a kid named Carmelo Anthony came to town.

SU Hoops: Savoring the Glory

I just had to excerpt this data from my favorite college basketball column, Joe Lunardi's Bracketology:

Syracuse

5-seed

RPI: 17 SOS: 1(!)

"Arguably the greatest major conference tournament run in history."

Good Wins
RPI 1-25: N-Connecticut, N-Pittsburgh
RPI 26-50: @Cincinnati, West Virginia, N-Cincinnati, N-Georgetown


I feel like I'm at McDonald's. I'm lovin' it.

College Basketball: Big East is Supreme

Caught the last 10 minutes of the BC-UNC game today. You know how the Eagles won? Physical play. Nothing easy in the paint for Hansbrough and Co. Every foul was a good, hard foul.

In short, they won playing Big East basketball.

SU Hoops: Big East Finalists?!?

Can anyone explain how we won the game yesterday? I can't piece it together. In the first half, we were getting shredded. Georgetown looked like...

Wow. I just realized what happened. Georgetown pulled a Princeton.

Flashback to the late 90s. I'm watching an NIT game between Princeton and some random mediocre college program. For some reason, I want to say Xavier. Anyway, the Tigers absolutely dominate the first half. They go up by 10 or 15 points in the exact same way Georgetown did yesterday: pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, touch-pass, pass, pass, pass, extra pass, extra pass, wide open look, count-it. The halftime score was something like 30-15. Of course, I'm loving it. We all love to root for that kind of basketball. That's why Pete Carril is in the hall of fame with only one NCAA tournament win. (Actually, I think it's more than that. He's in because he designed a system that worked.) Last night, an average fan who had no allegiances to SU or Georgetown would have rooted for Georgetown in the first half. They were magnificent.

Back to the NIT game. So I'm going nuts because Princeton is dominating. Then the second half starts and it all falls apart. They can't stop Xavier on defense and they can't score on offense. The former is caused by Xavier's superior talent and athleticism finally exerting itself. The latter is caused partially by Xavier finally figuring out what Princeton is doing, and partially by Princeton trying to slow things down. In the end, Princeton lost by around 10.

That's the flaw with the Princeton offense. Once it stops working, it's hard to get it going again. It took SU a little longer last night, but eventually the zone started to close down the middle. And at the end of the game Georgetown hadn't scored a field goal in five minutes. Gerry got hot and we closed the gap. Now we're playing for a back-to-back Conference Tourney title.

And that's the explanation.

SU Hoops: Quick Thoughts

I have 10 minutes to impart wisdom on my faithful reader(s)...

-I have no problem with Gerry yelling at Josh Wright after the Soph missed that good look with 32 seconds left. Honestly, I would have done the same thing in his position. MJ would have done the same thing. The fact that he was diplomatic after the fact only helps his case.

-A few people around here are worried about the point guard position next year. I'm not. Gerry wasn't even ever a true point guard. Yesterday he was magnificent passing, but he was doing a lot of that from the shooting guard position, with Devo starting the offense. And we all saw Josh Wright run a few plays in crunch time with success. Both of those guys are better off the dribble than Gerry as underclassmen. And Josh especially has a pass-first mentality. I think he'll blossom nicely with more playing time, and we're OK with Devo if he doesn't. Eric averaged 2.3 assists this year, which will go up when Gerry leaves. G-Mac never averaged more than 5 before this season.

-You know a team is tough when Fyall and I can't piece together a theory on how to break em down. That was unsolved riddle for us at the Fort after the first two UConn games. Luckily Jimmy is smarter than us. Offensively, we ran a very patient spread offense that stretched UConn's man-to-man, opening up space for driving and/or passing. That's how we killed them in the points-in-the-paint category. I still think UConn has the best man-to-man in the country. Boeheim just cracked it. Defensively, we've just finally gotten better. The zone did what it's supposed to do: it forced UConn to rely on the three, especially in the first half. Boone and Gay didn't hurt us inside.

NCAA Survivor...from my other blog

Lot's of teams could win the title this year. These are the ones I still believe in...

NCAA Survivor

P.S. SU Hoops

Everything has changed. Nichols, Roberts, and even Louie played great today. For one game at least, expectations have been met. We're right there with UConn. NOW we deserve to dance. And NOW we might just make some noise!

But first, we have some business in Manhattan...

Stabbed in the Back

Roger McDowell is the new Braves pitching coach?? I feel so betrayed! Unless Minaya hired him as a double-agent...

SU Hoops: In or Out?

On February 15, the Syracuse Orange got crushed by the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Carrier Dome. From that point until now (with a short change of heart after the West Virginia game) I've held the belief that SU doesn't deserve to get in the field. I'm not talking about earning a spot with their numbers (record, RPI, SOS, last 10, etc.). I'm talking about playing like one of the 35-40 best teams in the country. We may have beat Cincinnati yesterday, and we probably outplayed them for most of the game, but that was an ugly game. We're still not playing great basketball, and we're not playing to our potential.

It makes me sad, really, because there are guys on the team that are playing well. Guys that deserve to go. In fact, let me tap those guys right now:

Senior
Yes - Gerry McNamara: No-brainer. We all know his story. Gerry isn't a superstar. He was better as a #2 guy. He's a streaky shooter. But he's clutch. He plays hard. He deserves to dance.

Juniors
Yes- Matt Gorman: Red-shirted last year so he'll be back next year. And hooray for that! I've actually gone on the record as saying he should start over Roberts next year. I'd like to formally rescind that now, but his effort off the bench is fantastic.
Yes- Darryl Watkins: His offense has improved a little, but his defense has improved a lot.

No- Demetris Nichols: Started great, but when we needed him, he's fallen short. Lacks confidence in his shot.
No- Terrance Roberts: He has the talent to average a double-double. He hasn't done that.
No- Louie McCroskey: Great rebounder, defender. Possibly the last person on the team I want to have the ball in his hands on offense. Train-wreck.
t
Sophomore
Yes- Josh Wright: Maybe I just had lower expectations for him, or I'm blinded by his speed. I'm just pleased with where his game is at this point.

Freshmen
Yes- Eric Devendorf: After Gerry, he's been the most consistent player for us. Still making bad decisions, but he's going to be very good for us. One of the best guards ever, I suspect.
Yes- Arinze Onuaku: Didn't expect much. Got a lot. Like Gorman for Roberts, he'll do a good job of pushing Watkins next year, and will step right into the starting spot two years from now.


Have you ever started writing something then been surprised at how it came out? I thought there were more to blame than those three juniors. But I'm sticking with those answers. I talked a lot about not meeting expectations. I really think we had the talent to be better this year. Didn't you? I consider myself a bit of a Big East expert. Looking only at the Big East standings, and without going into an explanation, let me list the teams by talent this year(Big East standing in parenthesis):

UConn (1)
Villanova (2)
Syracuse (9)
West Virginia (3)
Pittsburgh (4)
Louisville (11)
Cincinnati (8)
Notre Dame (12)
Rutgers (10)
Marquette (6)
Georgetown (5)
Seton Hall (7)
Providence (14)
DePaul (13)
St. John's (15)
South Florida (16)

I'm clearly biased for Syracuse. And I haven't seen Marquette, Providence, or South Florida play. But this whole thing is pretty subjective, so take it as you will. I think JT Jr. did a great job with Georgetown this year (even though I tapped them as the surprise team back in January). Notre Dame lost a ton of close games. And Louisville collapsed after losing Padgett.


Conclusion
We're clearly not playing to expectations, even at this point in the season. A win against UConn today would be the only thing that could change that. We need to win today to deserve get in.

But...I really want all those guys listed above to go to the tournament. Especially Gerry, one last time. So here's my argument for us making the NCAAs if we lose to UConn...
-20 wins off the 6th hardest schedule in the country deserves to play.
-20 wins for a major conference team deserves to play

The committee always rewards tough schedules. Deserve it or not, I think we're in.

Kirby Puckett

Wow. Kirby Puckett died today. To put his role in my life into perspecive, I've got a couple of posters of individual players on my wall. Kirby's poster is the biggest. It's the only one not taken out of a magazine or calender. It was a Christmas or a birthday gift way back when. I didn't have posters for a long time in my youth. I wanted one for my wall. I asked for a Kirby poster.

I was always a Mets fan, but for a long time, the Mets didn't have a single player that captured my imagination. So after Howard Johnson retired, Kirby became my favorite athlete. He was short and plump, but fast. He played center field improbably well. He hit for average and power.

But the best thing about him was that he was a good guy. Possibly the best guy in the game. He took less money to play in Minnesota forever. He was a great teammate. He was a winner. He was an overachiever. He played his heart out. He was a spectacular philanthropist.

Turned out he was far from perfect. I guess his dark side really took over after glaucoma forced him from the game - and our lives - far too soon. All sorts of dirty stories came out about him. Honestly, I'll never be more crushed to find out someone isn't all they seemed to be.

But whatya gonna do? Does the good stuff negate the bad stuff? No. Does the bad stuff negate the good stuff? No. Both sides were Kirby. And the baseball player was real.

Kirby Puckett single-handedly won Game 6 in 1991 to keep the Twins alive. How many baseball players have won a World Series game by themselves? That's awesome. That's his finest hour. That's Puck.

NFL: Unreported Steroid Scandal

With all the talk about steroids in baseball, I've often found myself wondering why football has avoided scandal. Back in middle school and high school health class, the anecdotes about teenagers using steroids always involved football players. Retired pro bowl tight end Bill Romanowski has admitted to using steroids and human growth hormone. And that's about it.

It just seems naive to me to think that the NFL is that much cleaner than baseball. If anything, I'd expect steroid use to be more rampant in pro football. Anyway, I just want to toss that thought out there so I'll look like a genius when NFL steroid stories finally start to break in the next couple years.

I'll leave you with two photos of former Dallas Cowboy Dat Nguyen, one in college and one in the pros. The 31-year-old just announced his retirement after being slowed by a neck injury last year. Is the swollen head an optical illusion caused by his receding hairline or a side-effect of steroid usage?

College Basketball: The Dismality of SU Hoops

In the wake of the worst SU hoops loss I've ever seen, here's two e-mails between my cousin and me...

Hi Paul. I needed to fill you in on attending SU play DePaul last night. The place was going bonkers, especially the 2nd half. They hadn't seen anything like that ever. Leslie and I left with 9:30 to play, they were down 27 at the time. It only got worse. I don't want to see SU in the NIT although that's more likely now - - last night on national TV didn't help their chances while on the bubble. What are your thoughts? Hope all is well buddy.

-Mark

----------------

Hey Mark,

I'm not as interested in our chances of going to the tournament as I am in whether our quality of play is tournament caliber, and with brief exceptions, it just hasn't been. What's the point of going to the tournament if we're not going to make any noise? I thought we had bottomed out in Cincy and turned a corner in our win over Louisville at the dome, but I was pretty dismayed when we didn't assert ourselves in the win-able Georgetown game and not really surprised with our flat play against DePaul (though shocked by the score).

For two months, I've waited for us to turn a corner. Unless something changes against Villanova and into the Big East tournament, there is no point to a Syracuse NCAA trip. If we back in as an 11 or 12 seed, our prestige might make some less-observant analysts tab us as a sweet 16 darkhorse, but we know better.

Some of the reasons behind our lackluster season include:
-Gerry is a clutch shooter, and a dangerous complementary player to a Hak or Melo, but not a number 1 guy.
-Roberts was not as good as we hoped.
-Our brutal schedule, notably the UConn-Nova-Pitt gauntlet, deflated our spirits and stunted our growth.
-We didn't improve over the course of the season. Roberts, Nichols, and Watkins never got to a consistency.

I'm going to the Villanova game on Sunday. I just heard it's sold out, and Scranton is sending 64 buses. Maybe the crowd and the emotion of the day will finally give us a spark. But even if we somehow win, if we don't get on a little roll in the Big East tournament, I don't think we'll do anything in the NCAAs.

Those are my thoughts.

International Soccer: Friendlies

Well, we've got a long way to go if the US is going to make a statement in three months. We threw out almost our A-team and only beat Poland 1-0 with a Dempsey header off a goalie miscue. Really, Poland looked much more organized and cohesive than we did. But on the flip side, I think it was clear that we were the more talented team, which in itself is a major step forward for American soccer. We've even got a couple young stars who are going to shape the identity of World Cup squads for the next decade.

At the outset, the commentators said that the one guy Poland was really afraid of was DeMarcus Beasley. Landon Donovan gets all the pub, and Claudio Reyna has been the soul of the team for a long time, but Beasley is our spark. He's our poor man's version of Arjen Robben, our Cristiano Ronaldo, making things happen on the wings with speed and talent. Unlike Donovan, he's been playing against the world's best players for a couple years now with PSV. He made that team with his play four years ago in Korea. We should expect even more this year.

Oguchi Onyewu is a freak. Soccer players just aren't built like that. Power foward? Sure. Tight end? Absolutely. But soccer defender? Wow. He got better throughout qualifying, too. He's also honing his craft in the low countries, and we're gonna love him in June.


Meanwhile, England continues to be maddening. They look so good on paper, but can only barely pull out a win against Uruguay in England? On the bright side, I finally came around to Joe Cole as a force equal to Lampard and Gerrard in the midfield. Seriously, when healthy, is there a better front six in the world? Rooney and Owen, Cole, Lampard, Gerrard, and Beckham. They're still my biased pick to win it all.


Germany and France both lost to Italy and Slovakia respectively. I was sour on both of them before and I'm a little more sour now.

People like Germany because it's in Germany, but I think that homefield advantage in the World Cup is going to start to fade as more and more countries start to contend for the championship. The U.S. isn't the only country improving in International soccer.

The real shocker for me was Sweden's 3-0 defeat to Ireland. I was impressed with Sweden in the 2002 European Championships, and had been expecting them to make a little noise in Germany.