USA Soccer

What Gooch did in the Premiership, stalling at Newcastle, so might Freddy Adu do in the MLS. He moved from DC United, a stellar franchise with an excellent coaching staff, to Real Salt Lake before the beginning of this season.

Here's a depressing exchange from Steven Goff's blog (Washington Post soccer writer):

Q. Do you think Adu has the potential to develop into a starter on an elite club?
A: By elite, do you mean Premiership, La Liga, etc.? No.

Pressed further, Goff finishes a little more optimistically: "At the moment, Freddy is a good, but not great, MLS player. Good MLS players don't become starters in Europe's top leagues. Maybe he'll show something this year, but right now, he is not a top-flight Euro player."

But still. This feels like a dangerous moment for the future of USA soccer. A month ago, Marvell Wynne, the USA's 20-year-old answer to Ashley Cole, was sold by the NY/NJ Metrostars (or Red Bull, or something). Normally, that wouldn't mean much. The Metrostars have been an awful franchise. But, they just brought on Bruce Arena. And if Arena cannot make Wynne work, I fear no MLS coach can.

All that said, I think the crashing constellations of American football are buffered by some good news. Josi Altidore, also of the Metrostars/Red Bull (or whatever), has looked good in the two games I have seen him. If anything, he reminds me of Schevy -- a goal scorer who seems slow, and never particularly dangerous, and who seems to succeed almost in spite of himself.

Also, the quality of the MLS in general is surprising. I've been taping Thursday night games on ESPN2, and while there are undoubtedly stretches of brutal soccer, there are also moments of absolute class. So, you know, keep your head up, America.

Gooch Gone

Wow. Here's a blistering critique from YanksAbroad.com of everyone involved in the Oguchi Onyewu move to Newcastle which, as Chris predicted, was a failure for Gooch.

Meanwhile Jay Demerit was relegated with Watford. Bobby Convey missed the last portion of the year at Reading due to injury.

The three Americans at Fulham are still sraping to avoid relegation (I think they will). Incredibly, the defender Carlos Bocanegra is their second leading scorer after Brian McBride. Clint Dempsey is getting a run every once in a while. Everyone says he needed to get fit for the English schedule, which is reverse to the American season. Hopefully next year he'll play a bit more. He's only 24. He could really help them out if he gets rolling.

Late 90s Mets "Stuff" Anecdotes

ESPN The Magazine's Tom Farrey posted a nice little article with some stuff-related anecdotes from Brian McRae, Turk Wendell (Apparently that nut was clean. My dad got me a Wendell t-shirt. Now I can wear that proudly in public.), and Steve Phillips. As we get further from the 90s, more guys are going to come forward with similar anecdotes about that era.

I like the word anecdote, especially after reading its definitions from answers.com.

Mets Clubhouse, Steroids, and "Northern District of California"

The list of Kirk Radomski's clients has not been released, and is not being reported. But, The Smoking Gun has a copy of his plea agreement with the feds, and it contains a piece of information that I 100 percent guarantee that every journalist in the country is trying to track down:

From pages 3 and 4 of the plea agreement:

"Over the course of time that I was distributing anabolic steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs, I regularly received payment in the form of personal checks for these drugs from the players and associates to whom I sold. I deposited these checks into my personal bank account at North Fork Bank and paid my home mortgage from this account. In particular, on January 24, 2005, I deposited a check for $2,000 that was payment for anabolic steroids into my personal bank account at North Fork Bank. I agree and admit that this check constituted payment for a shipment of anabolic steroids I sent to an address in the Northern District of California, and that the check itself was sent to me from an address in the Northern District of California."

Is that Bonds? Is that Victor Conte? Why is that piece of information -- which is the only information that would tie to anybody specific -- not being reported?

Interesting.

Notent Notables

OK, I'm back after my hiatus. To be fair, I was in Bulgaria for 8 days in the last month working at an orphanage with high schoolers. I have a great life.

• A Mets employee pleaded guilty to distributing stuff*. My immediate reaction: at least 50% of Mets between 1995 and 2005 were using stuff. My second reaction: oh well... Go Mets!
• The 1st leg of the Man U-AC Milan Champions league game was the best match I've seen since I moved to London. Both teams passed great and both had control of different stages. Milan took the 2-1 lead by supplementing their typical Italian League skill on the ball with some excellent passes. Man U won by taking over the midfield in English League fashion. Is Christiano Ronaldo the best player in the world? I'll buy it. Is Kaka hot both as a player and as a male? Sure. Is Rooney, with 6 goals in his last 5 matches including one of the biggest of his career, back? I hope so.
• Unless you're Kate Schardein, I was listening to Maximo Park before you. Add them to the short list of bands I liked before they were really big (Gym Class Heroes is the only other one I can think of). The latest band that Kate, my British band insider, introduced me to is Young Knives. They're good too.
  
• I hate the Bloody Sock story. If you think there was anything except blood on the sock, you're a deluded Yankees fan still bitter about being on the wrong end of the biggest choke in the history of sports. That's not my opinion, that's a fact.
• I missed two of my favorite English sporting events while I was in Bulgaria. The Oxford-Cambridge boat race has been gripping stuff in recent years because both teams are so elite that they're always close at the end. And the Grand National horse race is to the American Triple Crown what the gladiator fights in the Roman Coliseum are to modern day boxing.
• Also missed the Masters, but wasn't shocked that Zach Johnson won. I hate it when a guy who everyone who follows golf knows is good but just isn't a star wins his first major and the media feels obligated to write the standard Cinderella Story piece. At the very least, this guy is going to be David Toms: perennially towards the top of the money list and competing for majors every once in a while.
• Speaking of golf, here's a little prediction that I feel strongly about: at the end of his career, Geoff Ogilvy is going to be more popular than Greg Norman ever was. Sometime in the last year I read a little column on espn.com saying that the media love Ogilvy because he gives a great quote and always puts tons of thought into his answers. Since then, almost every golf story I read has an Ogilvy quote in it. Apparently, he's a really bright guy, he's incredibly candid, he's Australian and he's wicked good at golf: everything a golf reporter could want! I think I've finally found one guy I might root for over Tiger.
• Here's to David Halberstam. Amazing life.
• Finally, just in case you're curious, and because its fun to think someone might be interested, I'll leave you with my 2007 Keeper Fantasy Baseball League Roster. * denotes my 4 keepers coming into the season. Three things to note: 1) My other possible choices for keepers were John Lackey, Jermaine Dye, and Francisco Rodriguez...nothing too great. 2.) I'm in first place right now, insanely. 3.) In addition to standard 5x5 stats, we also count Ks and Errors for batters and L's and Complete Games for Pitchers. I highly recommend that format, although the CGs are a bit of a wildcard.

Listed in the order I acquired them...
2B - Chase Utley*
SS - Derek Jeter*
C - Brian McCann*
SP - Scott Kazmir
OF - Bobby Abreu
RP - Joe Nathan
SP - Cole Hamels
OF - Alex Rios
DL - Jason Schmidt
1B - Todd Helton
OF - Magglio Ordonez
RP - Francisco Cordero
P - Chris Capuano
Util - Jeff Francouer
P - Jason Isringhausen
Bench - Moises Alou
Bench - Daniel Cabrera
----All Below were acquired after the draft off the free agent wire----
P - Al Reyes
Bench - Ian Snell
3B - Morgan Ensberg
Bench - Bronson Arroyo
Bench - Rocco Baldelli

It's a very typical team for me. Somehow I always end up with the batters who get tons of RBIs but not a lot of HRs. And I tend to prioritize Ks over Ws for pitching. Capuano, for instance, has been on my team for three years without me having to keep him. I also drafted hoping to get some guys who turn into keepers. I could see Hamels, Rios, Snell, or even Francouer making that leap this year.



*Stuff, you'll recall, is what I've decided The Sports Sauna will call performance enhancing drugs.

Bobby V ain't got nothing on Jose M

Great story. Very encouraging.

It's absurd that Chelsea ever seriously considered firing Jose. What does the man need to do?

Required Reading

To the right, you'll notice a new section of the Sports Sauna's sidebar. I think everyone who consumes ESPN should read the Ombudsman's monthly columns. It will make you smarter consumers. Plus, the two main writers of the Sports Sauna are graduates of the greatest school of communications in the world. The critical lens that the Ombudsman looks at ESPN with is the sort of lens that we subconsciously or consciously and more or less view sports coverage with all the time. I'd even say that the Ombudsman is MORE required than the Sports Guy.

But the Sports Guy is up there too.

Chris, any other suggestions for required reading?

Huggins to WVA

Looks like Bob Huggins is moving to West Virginia. If I'm Kansas State I'm pretty displeased with that. They really were giving him a second chance after he was booted out of Cincinnatti.

From the Syracuse perspective, I'd rather face Huggins over Beilein. Huggins might be a good recruiter, but Beilein is a better coach. He's going to bring Michigan back to prominence.

Mets, 2007

I've found myself not buying the pre-season hype of the Mets the past few years. Last year everyone thought they'd be World Series contenders. I thought they'd struggle to make the playoffs. I was wrong.

This year, everyone thinks their starting pitching is a problem. I say it's not that bad, and the bullpen will cover for it anyway. So far, I'm right.

You must have starting pitching. I agree with that. But the Chien-Ming Wang corollary states that mediocre pitchers can have good records if a team has a great bullpen and a fantastic offense. So the Mets went out in the offseason and bolstered their offense. They're going to make the playoffs, and they're going to do it for much less money then if they had signed Barry Zito. And they'll get Pedro back for the post-season.

Besides, these guys are not that bad. Here's how I project them, based on their 06 numbers:

Glavine: 30 starts, 14-7, 190 innings, 4.00 ERA
El Duque: 20 starts, 9-5, 120 innings, 4.05 ERA
Maine: 32 starts, 15-5, 200 innings, 3.60 ERA
Perez: Who knows? Could be 8 starts, 2-5, 40 innings, 6.15 ERA
For the sake of argument, let's give him Trash-Trachsel's numbers from last year...
30 starts, 15-8, 165 innings, 4.97 ERA
Pelfrey: Another question mark, for different reasons. 32 starts, 10-8, 170 innings, 4.90 ERA

Let's say Pedro comes back at the beginning of August and is used carefully:
Pedro: 9 starts, 5-2, 60 innings, 3.95 ERA

That's 153 starts, leaving 9 more starts. Clearly, way too optimistic. Plus according to those numbers our starters would give us a record of: 93-35. OK, that's insane. Individually, I think those numbers are good guesses, but some of those guys will get injuries. My point is, last year our starters (games started) were: Glavine (32), Trash-Trachsel (30), Pedro (23), El Duque (20), Maine (15), Alay Soler (8), Perez (7), Bannister (6), and five other guys had 21 starts including Jose Lima who lost all four of his starts.

Last year our starters went 65-49. This year, Pedro is hurt and Trash-Trachsel is gone, but Maine is ready to pitch all year and we've got some depth with Aaron Sele (somewhere Chris just guffawed), Dave Williams, and prospect Philip Humber. Last year's record was compiled with an extremely tumultuous starting rotation. Plus, Jose Lima will not pitch for the Mets this season. So let's say this year the starters will go 65-45.

If anything, the bullpen is better this year. The Mets still have Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez. They added young stud and member of Asterix the Gaul's village Ambiorix Burgos (only my brother is laughing right now, unless the Sports Sauna is bigger in France then I thought), as well as Scott Shoeneweis. In his first 16 games ever in the NL last year with Cincy, Scotty the Shoe threw 14.1 innings and amassed these stats: 11K, 1.19 WHIP, 2-0, 3 SV, 1 HLD, 1 ER = 0.63 ERA. At 33, the Shoe is moving from "prime" to "crafty veteran."

Ambiorix the Gaul is only 22 and pitched on the worst team (KC) in the best division in baseball last year (AL Central). He had a rough time as KC's closer, blowing an insane 12 saves. Even with all the struggles last year, he's held righties to a .234 average in 2 seasons. The guy has great stuff, and could mature into a closer some day. Right now, he doesn't even have to be the 3rd best pitcher in the bullpen.

Here's the bottom line:
1.) The starters will perform as good as the starters performed last year.
2.) The relievers will perform BETTER.

Therefore, the Mets will have a record of 100-62 to win the division. After last year's near miss, they'll break into the World Series this year, where they will lose to the Minnesota Twins. Luckily, Pedro will be so well rested that he'll pitch all 35 games NEXT year, go 25-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 300K in 280 innings and lead the Mets to the World Championship, thus justifying Omar Minaya's decision to hand him that extra year.

King Felix

Ai ai ai!!! Felix is in the house! Ai!

Youngest Opening Day starter since Doc Gooden. First Opening Day starter to strike out at least 12 batters without surrending a run since 1967. Ai!

"I told the team, 'Give me one run, we win,'" he said before the game.

I'm ridiculously pumped.

The Greatest Basketball Coach in the World

Old readers of Random Thoughts might remember my recurring column last year, NCAA survivor. In it, I proposed that the national champion could be selected before the tournament from a pool of teams narrowed down over the course of a season. As it turned out, I blew it by missing Florida on my list.

This year, however, if I had picked that column back up, I think we can all agree that I would have had Florida, UCLA, Ohio State, and Georgetown in the pool. It was a perfect season for the NCAA survivor idea. Oh well...

Marge: I cannot believe this! I'm trying to give our daughter a head start in life, and you aren't helping a bit!
Homer: Marge, name one successful person in life who ever lived without air conditioning.
Marge: Balzac!
Homer: No need for potty mouth just because you can't think of one.
Marge: But Balzac-
Homer [interrupting]: "If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts..." Wait, how does the rest of that go?

The other thing you might recall from last season was my intense insistence on the case for Thad Matta as the greatest coach in college basketball. If you also read The Sports Guy you'll know that Bill Simmons has been critical of Thad Matta this season. I'm not exactly clear on what his specific grievances are, but I believe he feels Thad is under-utilizing Greg Oden, or something, and that he's a poor clock manager. Allow me to counter-argue:

1. Thad Matta is a great recruiter. The Freshmen class he has on the Ohio State team might be the greatest foursome ever landed. You've heard of Greg Oden. You now know that Mike Conley Jr. might be even better than Oden. You've caught glimpses of David Lighty's abilities. And Daequan Cook is also a Freshman. What's most amazing is that he recruited these guys last year, while Ohio State was still uncertain whether the NCAA would grant it post-season elligibility after they had been busted for violations under Jim O'Brien.
2. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 1. In his final season at Xavier, before he got the Ohio State job, Matta took his unranked team into a game against the undefeated, #1 team in the country and won (St. Joseph's). The next season, Matta took his unranked team into a game against the undefeated, #1 team in the country and won (Illinois).
3. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 2. It's one thing to get players pumped up for big games. It's another to keep them playing hard all season long. At three different schools over the last seven years, Matta has won at least 24 games every season except one, with Ohio State in his first season, when the Buckeyes were on probation and inelligible for the post-season.
4. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 3. Some anecdotes: Greg Oden wasn't really showing a heck of a lot in this tournament...until with ten minutes remaining in the Memphis game Matta peered down the bench at Oden (sitting with three fouls) and made eye-contact. Oden nodded, and Matta sent him into the game with the instructions: "Play real hard and don't foul anybody." Another good story: Matta gave all his players Final Four pamphlets at the beginning of this season.
   
5. Thad Matta gets the most out of his players. Clearly, Ohio State has some outstanding talent on its team this year, but its not uncommon for a loaded team to have difficulties with chemistry. Matta successfully integrated five new players onto a team that went 26-6 and earned a 2-seed in the tournament last year. He handled the tension between the highly-touted freshmen and the important veterans, like senior Ron Lewis who hit the big three to send the Xavier game into overtime. Plus, he integrated Greg Oden into the mix after the season had already started. And they've only lost three games.
6. Thad Matta is a Good Game Coach. Admittedly, I don't really have a lot to argue here, other than, again, his W-L records have been pretty amazing, and he's playing in the national championship tomorrow. He's 12-5 in the tournament, with a number of upset victories counting in that win total. He was upset last year, yes. That loss was against 7-seed Georgetown, an excellent team in retrospect. Matta avenged that loss yesterday.
   

Who knows? Maybe Simmons is right. Maybe Matta will choke somehow tomorrow night. It still won't change those first five points above, and I'll still believe we're watching the emergence of the next great college basketball coach.