Good news!

Boy did I hit the coffee this morning at work!

***

Just noticed Chad Ford's Stock Watch, and Donte Greene is nowhere to be found. As much as I'd like to see him get some credit, you know he's awesome, I know he's awesome... that's enough for now. The more underrated he is, the better. I'm still saying 50/50 he leaves after this year, which is pretty good these days.

Another note: Paul Harris was quoted in the Post-Standard as saying Donte Greene has been saying that he'll say. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

But please enjoy this year! Onuaku is going to be a star by the end of the season. Our offense has remained superb post-Devo. We've got nothing to worry about with the schedule strength. Overall, I think, if not now, then by the end of the year Syracuse will be one of those high upside teams that nobody wants to play. That's a pretty fun role.

Pre-Season Bracket

OK, I've finally finished my projected bracket based on my Ultimate NCAA Rankings. Before I unveil that, let me also give you my conference rankings, based on the average rank of teams in each conference, which is provided in parenthesis:

1. Pac-10 (53)
2. SEC (71)
3. Big 12 (87)
4. Big East (88)
5. Big 10 (91)
6. ACC (107)
7. Mountain West (109
8. MVC (143)
9. WCC (151)
10. Big West (157)
11. Horizon (160)
12. A-10 (162)
13. SoCon (165)
14. Colonial (168)
15. MAC (174)
16. Patriot (175)
17. C-USA (177)
18. WAC (179)
19. Big South (194)
20. OVC (196)
21. MAAC (199)
22. Big Sky (205)
23. Ivy (212)
24. America East (218)
25. Atlantic Sun (219)
26. Southland (219)
27. Sun Belt (224)
28. MEAC (231)
29. NEC (236)
30. Summit (246)
31. SWAC (254)


Couple notes... while the Pac-10 has the highest average rank, I still think the Big East is the best conference. The top ten teams in the Big East have an average rank of 31! I do, however, think the ACC is down this year.

OK, onto the Bracket. I'm not going to muck about with all the technicalities, like avoiding conference match ups. I'm just going to slot everyone in through an S-curve based on my top 65, with every projected conference champ getting a bid. Conference champs are in bold.

EAST
1. Georgetown
16a. Sacred Heart
16b. IUPUI
8. Southern Illinois
9. Utah State
5. Kentucky
12. Wyoming
4. Ohio State
13. UW-Milwaukee
6. USC
11. Temple
3. Washington State
14. Tennessee Tech
7. Notre Dame
10. Texas A&M
2. Tennessee
15. ETSU

MIDWEST
1. UNC
16. Hampton
8. Davidson
9. Arkansas
5. Butler
12. Texas Tech
4. Syracuse
13. Miami (OH)
6. Duke
11. Saint Louis
3. Louisville
14. Lehigh
7. Mississippi State
10. Xavier
2. Michigan State
15. McNeese State

SOUTH
1. Memphis
16. Miss. Valley State
8. Oregon
9. Kansas State
5. Virginia
12. Dayton
4. Texas
13. Minnesota
6. Kent State
11. Arizona State
3. Vanderbilt
14. Montana
7. Connecticut
10. Wisconsin
2. UCLA
15. Winthrop

WEST
1. Kansas
16. Vermont
8. VCU
9. Marquette
5. Purdue
12. Providence
4. Pittsburgh
13. UC-Irvine
6. Missouri
11. Saint Mary's
3. Gonzaga
14. Siena
7. Califronia
10. Western Kentucky
2. Indiana
15. Penn

Remember, these are based on my pre-season rankings, so obviously I wouldn't give Syracuse a 4-seed right now. Of course, that's not to say they couldn't still finish hot and do it after all. The other thing is that I've got at-large teams getting 13-seeds, which almost never happens. Usually, the conference tourney upsets result in conference champs taking up all the seeds from the 16s into the 12s. Anyway, we'll take a look back at this at the end of the season. For now, I'll leave you, Lunardi-style, with the last 8 teams left out of my bracket, and the breakdown of the multi-bid conferences.

Last 8 Out
George Mason
Maryland
Missouri State
UC Irvine
UNLV
Georgia
Tulsa
UC Santa Barbara

Conference Bids
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Big 10 - 6
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 5
A-10 - 4
ACC - 3
WCC - 2
Horizon - 2
MAC - 2

Rhode Island

Apparently the A-10 might be good this year. On a night when Dayton upset Louisville, Syracuse was hit with its second straight home loss to an A-10 team with Rhode Island pulling one out in the dome (UMass was the other).

We've entered the part of the schedule where five straight games are on Time Warner sports, so I probably won't be able to watch them. I'll refer you to the Post-Standard's always excellent SU coverage, led by Mike Waters. Their front page blurb got the story right, explaining how SU had a decent lead with a couple minutes to go but went cold from the field. The lesson for the boys: finishing games. We are running out of time to keep learning these lessons.

The other reason we lost was rebounding, and the reason for the bad rebounding was Paul Harris had his worst rebounding game in memory, pulling down only two.

SU-Virginia

This is a rambling post, but I have a lot of thoughts about SU, as usual. Thanks for listening. You'll be rewarded at the end.

It's funny. Two years ago, I could probably write a whole column about how big a win this was tonight for Syracuse. After last year's NCAA selection committee (which, by the by, had no representatives from the Big East) ignored SU's great finish in the Big East and left them out of the field, everyone here in Syracuse knew going in that SU had a lot to gain from a win tonight. As Bud Poliquin put it on the radio today, this was a great "scalp" for our resume. Even though the Orange are led by Freshmen, you can bet that the holdovers made it clear to everyone that this game was important.

Just for fun, let's take a look at the official Sports Sauna pre-season rankings of the teams SU has played so far this year, as well as their current records:
Siena (3-3) - 61 - W
Saint Joseph's (4-3) - 206 - W
Fordham (4-4) - 143 - W
Ohio State (4-3) - 16 - L
Washington (4-3) - 86 - W
UMass (5-2) - 215 - L
Tulane (4-3) - 198 - W
Virginia (6-2) - 19 - W

That's a pretty respectable stretch of early season games. All winning records. And note that Ohio State's only losses have been to Texas A&M, Butler, and UNC (speaking of a tough early schedule).

In fact, I believe that schedule is a bit too tough for a team made up of mainly freshmen. I think 9 years out of 10, or even 999 years out of 1000, a team with Syracuse's 2006-07 resume gets into the tournament. Given the choice, I would have preferred to be 7-1 right now with lesser teams replacing UMass and Virginia rather than 5-3 with the scheduled loss at Virginia. Then the non-conference schedule would basically be a pre-season for the Big East, where we'd find out what kind of team we really are anyway. As it turned out, we won the game tonight, which completely makes up for those two losses anyway. I'm not sure if I'm making any sense, so I'll just say that I'd rather be a 7-1 team with a few wins over Siena-like teams then risk losing a handful of games with a young team that needs time to get ready for our brutal Big East schedule. Of course, it appears we're not going to lose a handful of games after all, and now we enter a stretch of games that should put us on a nice roll heading into the Big East season:

Rhode Island (9-1) - 262
East Tennessee State (4-3) - 81
Colgate (6-3) - 237
Cornell (4-2) - 180
Northeastern (3-4) - 254

OK, so Rhode Island has already beaten two Big East teams this year (at South Florida, Providence). I think they'll wilt in the dome. ETSU is off to a slow start. And Cornell has beaten Siena, but lost to Colgate in their quest to prove me wrong and steal the wide open Ivy League. A loss in any of these games would be a setback. Look for the Orange to be on a nice winning streak entering the New Year. Almost as if Boeheim planned it that way...

* * *

As for the game itself, it was very encouraging on a few levels, the most obvious being that we beat a team of Virginia's caliber on the road. Virginia fans will say that Sean Singletary's illness was the difference, and I am sympathetic. They were a totally different team without him on the floor. I've never been so impressed by a supposed scoring machine who only had 10 points on 3 of 14 shooting. They guy is a leader, and UVA will go as far as he takes them.

At the same time, I do think the game revealed SU to be the better team. The Virginia crowd was great, and the players really fed off the emotion of that building. It's easy to see why that place is such a home court advantage, even through the TV set. But the young Freshmen, who until now had played only in the dome and the home away from the dome (MSG), battled through. Other than the start of the game, they didn't have any incredibly hot stretches to keep the crowd out of it. They just took care of business.

When your best rebounder is your small forward, you're either a very good rebounding team or a very bad rebounding team. SU is a very good rebounding team. That's an unbelievable luxury to have, and a nice safety net for a young team.

Looking ahead to this game, I wondered if the Orange might be better off starting the game right off with man-to-man defense, just to try to keep Virginia from getting hot right away from three-point range. Of course, Boeheim is a man of routine. He always starts in zone. And of course, it worked. In fact, other then when one of the best PG's in the country wasn't hyperventilating, the zone was the best it's looked all year.

Eric Devendorf is going to go down as the least-liked excellent player the Orange have ever had. Orange fans, search your feelings. You know it to be true. You're not that crazy about him handling the ball, right? You're not comfortable when he drives the lane, are you? And you'd much rather Greene, Flynn, or even Harris shoot the three, yeah? Well guess what. Devo is our most consistent player. He's a lock for 15-20 points a game. And I will bet you that doesn't change when the Big East starts. He'll even go for 30 one night and single-handedly win it for us. And yet, even I still won't really like him that much.


OK, I've vented. Your reward: here is a video we made this fall about the Arras's annual football match against my cousins.

Notent Notables

• I'm still shocked that England failed to qualify for Euro 2008. It wasn't until they drew the groups for the finals the other day that it hit me the three lions wouldn't be participating. I haven't seen a game since I left, and I'm still upset. I can't imagine what the nation is going through. If I were Steve McClaren, I'd go hide in Florida somewhere for the rest of my days. Good heavens, what a disaster.

• I think we can all agree that the NFL is the biggest sport in America. But that doesn't mean it necessarily has to stay that way. Thinking the NFL will always be king is like thinking the US economy will always stay strong or that America will always be the strongest nation in the world. Baseball used to be the biggest sport in the country. In the 80s, as I understand it, the NBA was bigger. Personally, even though I followed Michael Jordan religiously and liked college football more than the NFL when I was a kid, I've always admitted the NFL was on top. But now I'm sensing a change. I'm finally seeing Chris's point, that the parity in the NFL might have gone too far. Sunday Ticket isn't quite as appealing as it was 5 years ago because the number of worthwhile teams has dropped. I still like tuning in when all the games are ending, in case it gets exciting, but most of the afternoon the games don't have my attention. Don't get me wrong, I think the playoffs are going to be amazing this year. But I think the overall quality of the product has slipped...

• ...while the NBA is looking better. I think the number of worthwhile teams is growing this year. I also think that with the Big Three in Boston and Dwight Howard's emergence as an all-time superstar in Orlando, the East has legitimate contenders this year. In fact, I think more teams can realistically win the NBA championship than the Super Bowl. Count 'em yourself. The NBA is coming back, folks. I'm intrigued.

• College Football will always have its base with the Solid South, but the lack of a tournament is really killing it. This season has been the most exciting one that I can ever remember. It is true that the significance of the upsets would have been lessened slightly by a post-season playoff. But ask yourself this: how many of the huge upset games have been "appointment viewing" for the casual college football fan? For me, the only appointment viewing games have been the Ohio State-Michigan game, and the Missouri-Kansas game, both of which would have been on my list of games to watch even if there was a playoff system. (Think of it this way: if #1 plays #2 in college basketball during the regular season, are you going to watch?) My point is the exciting storyline of the season isn't making me actually sit down and watch more games. And I'm not really interested in any bowl game other than the national title. But an 8-team playoff, that included the 6 major conference winners plus two at-large teams...I'd watch every game that stayed close, and I'm sure other casual college football fans like me would, too.

• I have Jim Valvano's ESPY speech on our downstairs TiVo tagged with "Save until I delete" status. If you're in town and need a pick-me-up, feel free to drop by.

• On SU's loss to UMass. That was a wildly entertaining game. Well into the 2nd half I was still watching with glee. But about halfway through the 2nd half (which was, I realized later, when Donte Greene cooled off), I got one of those bad feelings that you get when you really know your team is going to lose. You know what I mean? Sometimes it can work in the opposite direction, and you'll just know your team is going to pull it out. The problem, I decided, was that we weren't playing Big East basketball, or Syracuse basketball for that matter. Syracuse basketball wins with defense. As spectacular an offensive team as we are this year, our defense needs to be a lot better. We're not going to win too many games in the Big East playing shootout basketball. I didn't see the Tulane game, but it sounded like we took a step in the right direction. I think we're going to learn a lot more about this team on Wednesday, in Virginia.
  

The Greatest Basketball Coach in the World

Old readers of Random Thoughts might remember my recurring column last year, NCAA survivor. In it, I proposed that the national champion could be selected before the tournament from a pool of teams narrowed down over the course of a season. As it turned out, I blew it by missing Florida on my list.

This year, however, if I had picked that column back up, I think we can all agree that I would have had Florida, UCLA, Ohio State, and Georgetown in the pool. It was a perfect season for the NCAA survivor idea. Oh well...

Marge: I cannot believe this! I'm trying to give our daughter a head start in life, and you aren't helping a bit!
Homer: Marge, name one successful person in life who ever lived without air conditioning.
Marge: Balzac!
Homer: No need for potty mouth just because you can't think of one.
Marge: But Balzac-
Homer [interrupting]: "If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts..." Wait, how does the rest of that go?

The other thing you might recall from last season was my intense insistence on the case for Thad Matta as the greatest coach in college basketball. If you also read The Sports Guy you'll know that Bill Simmons has been critical of Thad Matta this season. I'm not exactly clear on what his specific grievances are, but I believe he feels Thad is under-utilizing Greg Oden, or something, and that he's a poor clock manager. Allow me to counter-argue:

1. Thad Matta is a great recruiter. The Freshmen class he has on the Ohio State team might be the greatest foursome ever landed. You've heard of Greg Oden. You now know that Mike Conley Jr. might be even better than Oden. You've caught glimpses of David Lighty's abilities. And Daequan Cook is also a Freshman. What's most amazing is that he recruited these guys last year, while Ohio State was still uncertain whether the NCAA would grant it post-season elligibility after they had been busted for violations under Jim O'Brien.
2. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 1. In his final season at Xavier, before he got the Ohio State job, Matta took his unranked team into a game against the undefeated, #1 team in the country and won (St. Joseph's). The next season, Matta took his unranked team into a game against the undefeated, #1 team in the country and won (Illinois).
3. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 2. It's one thing to get players pumped up for big games. It's another to keep them playing hard all season long. At three different schools over the last seven years, Matta has won at least 24 games every season except one, with Ohio State in his first season, when the Buckeyes were on probation and inelligible for the post-season.
4. Thad Matta is an unbelievably fantastic motivator, Part 3. Some anecdotes: Greg Oden wasn't really showing a heck of a lot in this tournament...until with ten minutes remaining in the Memphis game Matta peered down the bench at Oden (sitting with three fouls) and made eye-contact. Oden nodded, and Matta sent him into the game with the instructions: "Play real hard and don't foul anybody." Another good story: Matta gave all his players Final Four pamphlets at the beginning of this season.
   
5. Thad Matta gets the most out of his players. Clearly, Ohio State has some outstanding talent on its team this year, but its not uncommon for a loaded team to have difficulties with chemistry. Matta successfully integrated five new players onto a team that went 26-6 and earned a 2-seed in the tournament last year. He handled the tension between the highly-touted freshmen and the important veterans, like senior Ron Lewis who hit the big three to send the Xavier game into overtime. Plus, he integrated Greg Oden into the mix after the season had already started. And they've only lost three games.
6. Thad Matta is a Good Game Coach. Admittedly, I don't really have a lot to argue here, other than, again, his W-L records have been pretty amazing, and he's playing in the national championship tomorrow. He's 12-5 in the tournament, with a number of upset victories counting in that win total. He was upset last year, yes. That loss was against 7-seed Georgetown, an excellent team in retrospect. Matta avenged that loss yesterday.
   

Who knows? Maybe Simmons is right. Maybe Matta will choke somehow tomorrow night. It still won't change those first five points above, and I'll still believe we're watching the emergence of the next great college basketball coach.

Half-time: SU v. ND

Halftime of the Notre Dame game and you know what? For the first time all season long, I'm content with this team.

First of all, up by three against the #16 team in the country in the post-season...AND our best scorer has one point. Anyone would take that.

But it's more than just this game that I'm content about. I went to one game while I was home over Christmas, against lowly St. Bonaventure (no offense Brian). We beat them, but the way that we beat them was just SO unconvincing. Even in victory, we were not a good team.

It took us a while: even a month ago I was still feeling crummy about this team. But since then, Jimmy's got them into shape. The only thing I feel is completely wrong with this team is an injury: Roberts's knee. Here's what's right:

Watkins: right now he's got 6 points and 4 boards, and he's playing great defense. At the end of his career, we have to be pretty pleased with what he's given Syracuse. The best Orange center since Etan Thomas.

Roberts: How much will we miss his energy on the court? The enduring image in my mind will be him pointing in one direction while the ref points in the other. I feel like that happens every other game. Right now he's gutting out 6 points and 10(!) boards.

Rautins: See Fyall yesterday. But also see that pass he whipped inside to one of the big guys in this game? (Jay Bilas compared it to Moses Malone.) And see that full-court pass he made to Watkins to punish Notre Dame for their botched fast break? Apparently, those are the types of plays his dad made. We appreciate his three point shooting now, but we're only starting to appreciate his all-around play. Exciting!

Devendorf: Finally, FINALLY settling down at the point. Right now I love the way he's prioritizing his game: 1st get teammates involved, 2nd drive to the hoop, 3rd shoot the three. Perfect, Eric. PERFECT. Keep it right there. That's FINE.

Harris: Leading Syracuse with 9 points right now. Early in the season he gave us a few tastes of his brilliance, but that was against lesser opponents. Now we're getting those same tastes against quality teams. I'm excited. Even if it does mean people will do a double-take when I introduce myself around Syracuse from now on.

Wright: At the very least, he's looked good against Notre Dame. Arguably the biggest play of the first half was Russell Carter's 3rd foul, caused by Wright's speed and aggressiveness on the break. That's the intelligent use of speed we need to see more of from him, in the 1+ year he has left.

Nichols: To be fair to Fyall, who is picking the last bit of meat off the crow on his plate right now, no one really saw this season coming from Nichols. And coming into the year, Roberts was supposed to be the go to guy. And maybe that's the reason why it took so long for this team to click. But they're clicking now.

And I'm content. Even if we lose this game to the Irish and get bounced in the first round of the NCAA, at least we'll go down playing our very best. It's nice to feel good about the Orange.

Big East draw

Interesting draw for the Orange in the Big East tournament.

First they'll face UConn. The Hukies season is probably my favorite storyline of the 2006-07 season. They're absolutely atrocious: 6-10 in the Big East after a putrid non-conference schedule. Those are the kind of seasons Jim Boeheim never has. The only thing that could make me happier is (as always) if during a game, while he was jumping up and down and screaming at the refs, a laptop fell out of Jim Calhoun's sports coat. I imagine Calhoun freezing as the game comes to halt and the arena goes dead quiet...then erupting into confused chaos as Calhoun flees the stadium.

Still, there are a couple other teams I would rather be playing. I can bash Calhoun until his last illegally recruited blue chipper gets arrested, but that won't change the fact that he plans a good game whenever he faces Syracuse. Luckily, the only team that the Huskies beat this season that finished above them in the standings was Syracuse exactly one month ago. And that was when the Huskies were still on the bubble. Remember: these guys were favored to win the NCAAs a year ago, but bombed out against George Mason largely because of poor chemistry. Somehow I don't think their motivation will be enough to beat Syracuse.

And let me just say here that I think the Orange are playing their best basketball all season. I even think they outplayed Villanova, only losing because of Villanova's ridiculous free throw shooting (and ridiculously high amount of FTs taken). How good are we playing? Sweet sixteen good, I'd say. They just have to TCB* against UConn.

If they do, they'll face Notre Dame. This season's blowout notwithstanding, Syracuse has owned the Irish in recent years. Plus, rule #2 of conference college basketball applies:
1.) It's nearly impossible to beat a team three times in a season, no matter how bad they are and how bad you are.
2.) If you embarass a solid team in the first meeting, expect to get your comeuppance in the second.

Homer: Oh, Lisa, you saved me! And after all the bad things I said about you.
Lisa: What bad things? Why?
Homer: Oh, Lisa, the important thing is I didn't get my comeuppance, and I never will.
Lisa: (notices the restauranteurs massing) Uh...Dad?
Homer: I know honey. The important thing is...run!
(fade to credits)
Homer: Oooh. Finally getting my comeuppance.

If they dispatch the Irish, Syracuse will likely get Georgetown. Of course, I recently discussed my favorable attitudes towards the Orange's chances against the Hoyas in this space.

After that is the finals. It would be remarkable, but if Syracuse does get that far, win or lose, they'll be considered one of the hottest teams in the country going into the tournament. Many will point to last year's early exit as evidence for suspecting another first round loss for the Orange. But last year Syracuse's most important player was injured. Terrance Roberts might have to have his leg amputated if he plays four straight days, but Syracuse has already learned how to win without him. So I pooh-pooh anyone who suggests the Orange might be better if they don't play four games in a row. The most important thing is to get as high a seed as possible, and the farther Syracuse goes, the better. I like their chances to go far.

Prediction: I can't ignore my own rationale. Syracuse loses by 11 to Pittsburgh in the finals.



*Take care of business.