Day 1: "Jogging" Commentary

It's not a running commentary. It's a jogging commentary. I'll scatter my updates throughout the day, listed from newest at the top to oldest at the bottom. As games finish, look for more posts. If the games are duds, my posts will be slim to West Virginia (that is, nil). The only way to tell if I've posted again - refresh your browser!

Off we go with the greatest weekend in sports!

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11:57 - For not the first time, the late games didn't live up to the early games. I have no theories why that happens. Do you?

A few final thoughts...

• It's an annual tradition - doubting Pittsburgh after their first round game. OK, so they ended up pummeling UNC-Asheville. Still, they just never seem to have the offensive juice. That's not how they're built. They're brilliant defensively, and they'll out-Butler Butler on Saturday. But Wisconsin and Kansas State (starting to lose a lead against Utah St) look dangerous.
• BYU is in trouble against the Zags. The Cougars' lack of balance will be their undoing.
• Connecticut looked great in their first round game, but so did Cincinnati. Don't pencil UConn for a deep run quite yet. Anything can happen when teams from the same conference match-up.
• I promise you: Kentucky will dispatch West Virginia, avenging their loss in the Carrier Dome from last year's regional finals.
• Going into tomorrow, the biggest potential upset is Akron over Notre Dame. Akron won't be afraid, and Notre Dame isn't exactly an overwhelming force as a 2-seed. Most likely 3-seed to lose - while I think Indiana St is a solid team, I do believe Syracuse is a bad match-up for them. I'll say St. Peter's over Purdue. And I think Oakland will beat the 4-seed Longhorns if Texas isn't on its game.
  

8:58 - We really need Wofford or Belmont to tighten one of these games up, other wise this is our first dud pack of games. At least Verne and Raft are making the BYU-Wofford game mildly entertaining.

6:46 pm - Outstanding first eight games. There was a quality game going being played constantly. The best part? We still have 3/4 of the first round left! Barring a surprisingly close Florida game, we're taking a little break here in the Sauna for St. Patrick's Day dinner.

6:32 pm - My dad asked if Richmond is from the same conference as Xavier. I always mix-up the A-10 and Conference USA, but...yes. Yes they do. It's very possible Temple and Xavier, like Richmond, are under-seeded. Gulp.

6:26 pm - Two straight bailout fouls on fairly clean-looking blocks by Darrius Garrett in the middle of that Richmond defense. But Richmond hits another sweet mid-range shot to push the lead to three with with 18 seconds to play. Ssssssspiders!

6:12 pm - Richmond-Vandy is a classic first round game. It's not like Vandy is playing poorly. They're just up against a mid-major with decent talent that has been able to get it's offensive game plan to work. Two contrasting styles, two even teams. Close as we approach the five-minute mark.

Even better, we've got the decades-old Lundquist-Raferty bromance in full bloom. Raferty works great with everyone, but Lundquist's love for Bill makes this duo extra-special.

5:40 pm - I could watch a loop of Goodman's three followed by Mike Marra getting stuffed for hours and hours. That was awesome. When they show that shot years from now, they'll also probably show the stuff because of how it precedes the celebration. Hee hee hee!

This intense hatred of Louisville is new for me. It comes out of the combination of last year and this year's disappointing losses to the Cardinals in the regular season. Honestly, I think my hatred of Louisville is second only to UConn right now.

5:12 pm - Mmm. Close for the Tigers. I thought they had one chance for a run-out on that in-bounds play. Now switching over to Richmond-Vandy, which is a smooth transition because the Spiders run the Princeton offense!

5:05 pm - If you had told me Princeton would be 3 for 14 from three, I would have bet the farm, literally, that they'd be getting blown out and they would NOT be tied with 34 seconds to go. Unreal.

3:57 pm - Break out your Morehead St gear and wear it with pride; there's nothing funny about the name today! Kyle Kuric won't haunt my dreams until 2012! Goodman's game winner was Kemba-esque. And Kenneth Faried...17 boards...one absurd dunk. These Eagles can play!

3:06 pm - Just broke out the green (win) and pink (lose) highlighters. Through two games, out of eight brackets, only one is still perfect!! Worse, it's my "contrarian" bracket, which I filled out last and went against the consensus of my other brackets. On the bright side, all the more reason to ignore my brackets and just root for upsets!

The contrarian bracket is always a nice way to whip out one last quick bracket on Thursday morning. Instead of agonizing over those 8-9 games, you just pick the team you've picked less in all of your other brackets combined. It was extra fun to fill it out in Starbucks; rifling through a small stack of brackets for 15 minutes definitely made me look like a gambling addict. If you're wondering, that bracket has UNC, UConn, and BYU in the final four with Kansas winning it all.

2:50 pm - As Butler ran that last, thrilling possession (GREAT play by Smith to keep that rebound alive for the legendary Matt Howard) there were three games ongoing: two ties (Morehead St!) and one 2-point game. Maaaaarrrrrch Madness!

2:36 pm - The 10-0 run to finish the 1st half and the 3-straight Pepper steals as Clemson was scraping back down the stretch sealed it for West Virginia. For what it's worth, I think Clemson did look a bit tired at points. Oh well. Big East fans who root for their own conference can be happy, I guess. Me, I like to laugh at Bob Huggins. It'll have to wait a round I guess.

1:34 pm - Speaking of commercials...um, assuming you're reading this bottom to top...I like to use that line from the skinny jeans-Bud Light commercials - "Score still 21-32?" "Yeah...like your pants size!" - whenever someone asks to confirm the score of any game. "Score still 42-40 West Virginia?" Yeah...like your pants size!" Zing! Gotcha dad!

Also, I hate those Bud Light commercials, and more generally the trend in commercials centering on people being jerks to each other. Why do those hot bartenders have to hate on those poor guys?!? They're just trying to express themselves as individuals!

1:30pm - Ha! I love that Toyota commercial with the kid shooting on the garage hoop! His game is just like my game; he looks like he can do everything but get the ball in the net. Also, I drive an '09 Camry! Meanwhile, West Virginia just took its first lead of the game and for some reason my dad is pulling for the Mountaineers! It's a bad situation.

12:32 pm - I'm not saying it's likely, but there is about a 10-15% chance Bobby Huggins misunderstood the play-in games and game-planned for VCU. Of course, the more likely explanation for West Virginia's early struggles is that they are terrible.

10:32 am - It's tough to stay on top of all of the relevant college basketball news in the three and a half days between Bracket Day and Day 1. You probably know about Kyrie Irving and Chris Wright coming back. You know that Brandon Davies and DJ Kennedy are out for the tournament. Here a couple more notent notables, just in case you waited until the last possible minute to fill out your bracket:

• K-State's Beard is sick!
• Purdue's 6th man Kelsey Barlow was suspended for the remainder of the season Tuesday. And I was just about to fill out bracket with the Boilermakers winning it all! There goes my dark horse...
• Clemson had a quick turnaround after their "First Four" game. Oh man! That crap West Virginia team might scrape through to the weekend?
  

10:07 am - As someone who's run a few pools in his day (none since I work for Syracuse...don't worry Nancy!), I know how nice it is when people take the time to write out the full names of teams rather than take the short cut with potentially confusing acronyms or abbreviations. There's nothing more confusing and less elegant then seeing a bracket have KU beating UL and Pur en route to the Final Four. There are exceptions to the rule, however. Feel free to shorten "State" to "St" for example. If a team is listed on your bracket by its acronym, feel free to use it throughout. UAB, LIU, UNLV, USC, VCU, BYU and of course UCLA. Also, the following abbreviations are perfectly acceptable: UNC, Tenn (who can remember how many S's there are in Tennesssseee?), Cincy, UConn, SD St, Vandy, ODU, and Pitt. That is all.

9:10 am - I'm giddy! Polishing off a bunch of brackets at Starbucks. While you're waiting for the games to start, I thought this was pretty hilarious, other than the Orange metaphor. (Also, if you think it's crazy that Villanova finished 5-15...you're right. They finished with 5 wins in their final 15 games, or 5-10.)

2:00 am - Last night's post, ranking the teams from 1 to 64. If you liked my Big East tournament predictions, you'll love these picks! (Geheyeheyeheyehey... [Grabbing collar])

Ranking: From 1 to 64!

The beauty of the bracket is that anything can happen. Anything. Eventually, a 16-seed will beat a 1-seed. Someday, a double-digit seed will win the title. It could happen.

Who will win it all? Here's how likely I think it is for each team to win, from most-likely (Kansas) to least-likely (UTSA).

1. Kansas - They're deep. They're talented. They're well-coached. And of all the top seeds, my gut says this is the team to beat.
2. Duke - Kyrie Irving is ridiculously good. If Coach K (the greatest coach in the game) can integrate him back into the team, look out. Nolan Smith and a healthy Kyrie Irving is the best back-court in the tournament hands down.
3. Ohio St - Jared Sullinger is great, but can he lead the Buckeyes out of that brutal East?
4. Pittsburgh - I don't think they win the title, but this should be the year Pittsburgh makes its first Final Four. (Note: Honestly, I hate to do it, but I've got all four 1-seeds in my Bracket of Integrity's [BoI] Final Four.)
5. Purdue - I don't love the 2-seeds. I do love Purdue's two see-niors! (See what I did there?) JaJuan Johnson gives them 20.5 ppg inside, with E'Twaun Moore adding a healthy 18.3 ppg from the 2-guard. I also think Matt Painter is an elite coach right now. This is my 2011 dark-horse.
6. Connecticut - They are streaky. They are young. They are susceptible to bad stretches of play. On the other hand...Kemba.
7. Syracuse - I've said all year that this team wasn't really a title contender. However, I think the Cleveland pod followed by the East final in Newark really helps the Orange. Put yourself in Ohio State or North Carolina's shoes; do you want to play Syracuse in Newark? And if they can make it that far...why not?
8. Wisconsin - Another Big 10 team with two upperclassmen scoring 18.0+ ppg, a great defense, and a great coach. (Note: That's right, I'm putting a 4-seed above all the 2-seeds. Lots of talent on the 4-line this year. You know what? I'll do it again!)
9. Kentucky - They're not as heralded or even as talented as last year, but Freshmen Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones really came on as the Wildcats won 8 of their last 9. Call me crazy, but I could see Calipari's first title sneaking up on us. Speaking of crazy, it's insane that Florida got a 2-seed after Kentucky demolished them in the SEC championship.
10. Notre Dame - Okay. I'll put a 2-seed on the board. I'm as skeptical as you are that this team could win it all. Still, in a supposedly wide-open bracket, maybe...
11. North Carolina - I had written off the Tar Heels long ago this year, but the weak ACC allowed them to pull it together. Harrison Barnes looks great. Still, I think people are giving them too much credit based on the name.
12. Louisville - I can't think rationally about Kyle Kuric.
13. Texas - T is for "talent."
14. Xavier - I just blew your mind. If the legends are true, Tu Holloway could blow all of our minds if the Musketeers can battle their way through a tough draw.
15. San Diego St. - It's a nice story, but I don't buy it.
16. Florida - Whatever.
17. Kansas State - I'm actually picking them to lose to Utah State in my BoI, but if the beard gets going, look out.
18. Georgetown - Another team that could crash out early or make a run. Chris Wright is back, though, so perhaps the Hoyas can right the ship and then some. Austin Freeman is very, very good.
19. BYU - Fine. I'll put the Cougars here. Yes, I love the Jimmer. I just think the loss of Brandon Davies is going to kill their chances for a title.
20. Vanderbilt - John Jenkins. Sophomore. Scores from everywhere. (Note: I feel like there is a big gap from 20 to 21.)
21. Washington - The East, man. I'm tellin' ya.
22. Arizona - Great big man, but great big men can't do it alone in the tourney.
23. Michigan St - When in doubt, take Izzo with talent.
24. Temple - Bill Cosby went here.
25. UCLA - Off-year for the Bruins, but I love their coach.
26. Butler - I feel like last year's experience is more of a curse than a blessing for this year, but the Bulldogs are still tough without Gordon Hayward.
27. St. John's - This is about right for a team that I've been arguing has peaked.
28. Penn State - I like teams with guards who can score, like Talor Battle.
29. Utah St - They deserved much better than a 12-seed, but the committee always hates the Aggies.
30. Gonzaga - Word on the street is they'll be better next year, but senior Steven Gray might have a few things to say to the street before he's done.
31. Texas A&M - Not the best Aggies in the tournament.
32. Richmond - Gotta love the Princeton offense.
33. Memphis - Hey! Memphis is in this tournament!
34. Oakland - Cinderella, meet Keith Benson.
35. Old Dominion - For some reason, I like to call Old Dominion "Old Dirty Bastard" in my head.
36. Florida St - Whatever.
37. Cincinnati - Eh.
38. Georgia - Bah.
39. Illinois - Hm.
40. George Mason - Ah!
41. UNLV - So.
42. Clemson - They really stuck it to my "UAB is going to play the 'nobody believes in us' card and win two games" theory.
43. Belmont - Beware.
44. Marquette - I would like these guys more to do some damage in a weaker bracket.
45. VCU - Not bad. Actually, I would have them a few notches lower but I forgot about them and didn't feel like changing a bunch of numbers.
46. Villanova - Disastrous.
47. Missouri - Also not playing great.
48. Michigan - I didn't watch the Fab 5. Heard it was good, though.
49. Tennessee - Never pick a team whose coach is being investigate by the NCAA and whose AD just said he might not be back next year.
50. West Virginia - Ha ha ha HA HA HA! Classic Huggins!
51. Indiana St - Yes, I do believe Syracuse got the toughest 14-seed. Always fear the Missouri Valley Conference. This could be Vermont all over again.
52. Morehead St - There's a small but real chance Louisville sucks. I just can't tell. Kyle Kuric haunts my dreams.
53. Akron - Look out Notre Dame! They play good basketball in the Mid-America Conference.
54. Princeton - Won't happen this year.
55. Wofford - BYU's first round game will be closer than you think. (Yes, I know it's called the second round now. I refuse to follow that crap. Just like when they started naming the regions after the city where they were being held rather than the directional name. No thanks.)
56. Saint Peter's - Possible.
57. Long Island - You think...nah!
58. Bucknell - Nah.
59. Northern Colorado - Well, one team from Colorado is dancing.
60. UC Santa Barbara - Nope.
61. Boston U - I asked Boston grad and friend of the Sauna Andrew if the Terriers had a chance. He said they had a chance to have the first lead of the game. Well then...
62. Hampton - Hampton beats Duke...would make an amazing headline, wouldn't it?
63. UNC-Asheville - No.
64. UT-San Antonio - I have nothing else to say.

Happy March Madness! Go Orange!

Alternate NCAA Gambling: The Individual Points Game

It's that time of year again. Time for me to watch jealously as my brother Dan competes in his delightful individual players scoring pool. Here are the rules:

1. Five participants draft 11 INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS.
2. Total points scored by your team of players over the course of the tournament wins.
3. In the 11th round, everyone has to draft one player from a double-digit seeded team
   

There's different strategies here. Some like to pound the best per-game scorers. Others like to ride the high seeds, hoping for more games. This year the play-in games added an interesting twist to the "double-digit" pick, since theoretically a double-digit seed has about 50/50 odds of getting a second game.

Round 1

Nolan Smith	Duke	Jon
Jimmer Fredette	BYU	Aaron
Ben Hansbrough	Notre Dame	Ryan
Jared Sullinger	Ohio St	Dan
Marcus Morris	Kansas	Jamie

The Ben Hansbrough pick is a head-scratcher, but otherwise you have to go best 1-seed players here. I think the Jimmer pick is dicey this year. BYU won't sneak up on anyone, although their path to the regional finals isn't too tough.

Round 2

Kyle Singler	Duke	Jamie
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	Dan
Kris Joseph	Syracuse	Ryan
Kemba Walker	UConn	Aaron
Markieff Morris	Kansas	Jon

Ryan continues to pick drunkenly. With none of the 1-seed scorers, Aaron is gambling on a wide-open tournament.

Round 3

Harrison Barnes	UNC	Jon
Jujuan Johnson	Purdue	Aaron
Brandon Knight	Kentucky	Ryan
Kawhi Leonard	SD State	Dan
Bradley Wanamaker	Pitt	Jamie

Jamie is trying to grab 1-seed guys, but Wanamaker is a stretch here.

Round 4

Tim Abromaitis	Notre Dame	Jamie
William Buford	Ohio St	Dan
E'Twaun Moore	Purdue	Ryan
Jordan Hamilton	Texas	Aaron
Jon Diebler	Ohio St	Jon

Dan puts all his eggs in the Buckeye basket with Sullinger-Buford.

Round 5

Erving Walker	Florida	Jon
David Lighty	Ohio St	Aaron
Jon Leuer	Wisconsin	Ryan
Tyrel Reed	Kansas	Dan
Tyler Zeller	UNC	Jamie

Aaron grabs his first 1-seed player - the fourth Ohio State player taken.

Round 6

Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	Jamie
Kenny Boynton	Florida	Dan
Jacob Pullen	Kansas St	Ryan
Terrence Jones	Kentucky	Aaron
Gilbert Brown	Pittsburgh	Jon

By this point the strategies are clear. Dan and Jon are going with the top seeds. Aaron is going with the top scorers. Jamie is finding a balance. Ryan is apparently insane. (That said...fear the beard.)

Round 7

Carleton Scott	Notre Dame	Jon
Tyshawn Taylor	Kansas	Aaron
Malcolm Thomas	SD State	Ryan
Preston Knowles	Louisville	Dan
Scoop Jardine	Syracuse	Jamie

Jon is digging deep into the 1- and 2-seed rosters. He's yet to take a player from a lower-seeded team. Unless they get bonus points for threes inside of 20 seconds left, the Scoop pick is a bit optimistic from Villanova grad Jamie.

Round 8

Jeremy Lamb	Uconn	Jamie
Rick Jackson	Syracuse	Dan
Dwight Hardy	St. John's	Ryan
Brandon Triche	Syracuse	Aaron
Derrick Williams	Arizona	Jon

All the relevant Orange players are gone now. Jon breaks with his strategy to take Williams off 5-seed Arizona.

Round 9

Seth Curry	Duke	Jon
Kalin Lucas	Michigan St	Aaron
Mason Plumlee	Duke	Ryan
Jackson Emery	BYU	Dan
Tristan Thompson	Texas	Jamie

Duke ties Ohio State for most players chosen. Will Kyrie Irving play? He could cut into Seth Curry's minutes, and steal points from other Blue Devils. Aaron gambles on a Tom Izzo run from a 10-seed. Dan grabs the other Cougar in the tournament. Interestingly, no one took Brandon Davies, who leads BYU in scoring.

Round 10

Kyle Kuric	Louisville	Jamie
Alex Oriakhi	UConn	Dan
John Henson	UNC	Ryan
John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	Aaron
Tu Holloway	Xavier	Jon

Jenkins (19.5 ppg) and Holloway (20.2 ppg) are potential stars in this tournament. It would have been a shame if no one had rolled the dice with them.

Round 11

Marcus Denmon	Missouri	Jon
Taylor Battle	Penn State	Aaron
Justin Harper	Richmond	Ryan
Jamarr Sanders	UAB	Dan
Demontez Stitt	Clemson	Jamie

Everyone has to take a double-digit seed here. Dan and Jamie are in direct competition in Tuesday night's play-in game. I would have also considered Nikola Vucevic, playing for USC in the other play-in game Wednesday. Of the other three, Harper scores 17.9 per game for Richmond; they're a 12-seed but I think their Princeton-style offense could be dangerous.

How I Would Fix the NCAA Selection Process

Pre S. - If you believe Lunardi, Orange fans should root for Florida over Kentucky to help Syracuse's chances at a 3-seed. You could also make an argument to put SU ahead of UNC if the Tar Heels lose to Duke.

Also, everyone should always root against Kentucky and UNC because they're evil.

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On Sunday, March 11, 2007 most Syracuse fans watched the selection show waiting to see what seed Syracuse would get. The Orange were 21-8 with a 10-6 record in the Big East. No 10-win Big East team had ever missed the NCAAs. SU had finished the season 5-1, and had just beat UConn in their opening Big East tournament game in what many perceived to be a "play-in" game to make the NCAAs. A tourney birth seemed certain. It wasn't. Syracuse was left off the bracket.

For the first time in over 15 years, I didn't fill out a single bracket that year. In fact, according to The Sports Sauna's official history the 2007 tournament didn't happen. (Much like Syracuse mysteriously never played Seton Hall this year, according to Sauna archives.)

I also cooked up a neat conspiracy theory, suggesting Arkansas had more friends on the selection committee than Syracuse did, which helped them get the last bid into the field.

Now, I'm kinda like John Locke before his dad stole his kidney; I'm a pretty trusting person. I don't believe that there are secret plots and backroom deals to get certain teams in and give certain teams better seeds. I trust that when a team from a committee member's conference comes up for discussion, they really do leave the room. However, I think to suggest the process is foolproof and above reproach is naive. You can't expect committee members to be emotionless, and to not be moved, one way or the other, even on a subconscious level by their fellow committee members' loyalties, especially when you sequester these people together for a full weekend. It's human nature. Furthermore, you can't expect committee members to follow every team all year round, and to be informed enough heading into their duties to grasp the basketball landscape.

Four years later I still hate the selection process. Here are five things I'd do to improve it, partly to protect against something like the 2007 debacle, and partly get more mid-majors into the tournament:

• Put journalists on the committee - You can see the current committee roster right here. Right now the committee is made up of 8 athletic directors from Ohio State, Xavier, Wake Forest, UConn, Texas-San Antonio, Utah State, California, and Southern Methodist. Two conference commissioners, from the Big Sky and the Big 12, round out the group of ten. I would rotate four media members, one from each of the four "regions," onto the committee every year. Call me crazy, but I think college basketball journalists know more about the college basketball season than ADs and Conference Commissioners. Okay, so it's a dicey area as far as ethics goes to have journalists shape the tournament they will be covering. But aren't journalists already shaping college sports through the weekly polls in both basketball and football?
  

• Put a "Bracketologist" on the committee - It doesn't have to be Joe Lunardi. It could be...one of the other guys. Joey Joe-Joe Junior Lunardi Shabadoo, of collegebrackets.org. The thing I love about Lunardi is not that he projects so many teams correctly when the brackets come out. It's that he lays out all the information in a way that is easy to follow throughout the season, and makes sense as he puts his final bracket together at this time of year. It is rational and transparent. And again, I guarantee you he's spent exponentially more time thinking about the bracket than the selection committee.

• Increase the value of the Polls and the RPI - Here's where I want to help the little guys. Remember when Utah State was left out of the 2004 tournament despite a 25-2 record and being ranked at the time? (Neither did I until I read it on wikipedia.) Why not put in a rule that says if you get 10 votes or more in the AP or Coaches poll, you're in the tournament? We'd have to figure out a way to have those polls updated after the last games on selection Sunday, but 35 teams in the most recent polls got 10 votes or more. Most of those teams are already locks. St. Mary's would be breathing easy (11 votes in the coaches) and deservedly so. They're a good team.

As for the RPI, a quick comparison between the top 30 and Lunardi's latest bracket tells me all 30 are locks for this tournament. Once you get to number 31, UAB, you start to hit the bubble teams. A 30 RPI or better should be safe. (Note: it hasn't always been, especially if you're a mid-major. See: Missouri State.) You don't even have to set a specific cut point for mandatory entry into the field. If the committee is given specific instructions to weight the RPI and the polls heavily - more heavily than they have in the past - teams like UAB, Harvard (37), and Penn State (39) will make the field.

• Weight a Team's Regular Season In-Conference Result - I would love it if regular season conference champs AND conference tournament champs got automatic bids, but there is no way the major conferences would let that happen without the field expanding to 96. Plus, there would be an incentive for small conferences to convince their regular season champs to throw conference tournament games. It's problematic. But the committee should still consider a regular season conference championship when it is weighing a bubble team.
  

• Tell the committee to select "the 37 teams who had the best season" - Right now the instructions ask the committee merely to select "the 37 best teams." You'll hear Jay Bilas repeat that line tonight on ESPN's selection show as he supports the major conference teams that got in over mid-major teams. (I really hate Bilas at this time of year...except 2007, when he was SU's biggest supporter. On a related note, I hate Doug Gottlieb all times of the year.) To an extent, I do think the committee measures teams based on what they accomplished during the season. Otherwise there would be even fewer mid-major at-large bids. Still, you're more likely to see an underachieving talent-loaded major team than an overachieving mid-major get a higher seed than they probably should.

Cheering for the Autumnal Colors

If Syracuse shoots well, Butler won't be able to keep up with them. After that, Kansas St is not a bad match-up without A-O. Their strength is their guards. Of course, THEY would be delighted at SU not having A-O. A big reason they lost 3 games to Kansas was Cole Aldrich's defense inside. But Kansas State isn't used to the zone. And no one is used to Wes Johnson leaving his man and coming across the lane to try deflecting shots around the hoop. Does anyone do that better? I'm not sure if he's doing it more or I'm noticing it more, but I saw it a bunch of times against Gonzaga, even though he only ended with one block.

But back to Butler... well-coached... low-scoring games... tend to exert their will in the 2nd half... they're not a mid-major Pitt, are they? Ultimately, though, I'm less nervous about this game than the Gonzaga game. The Zags might even have more talent than the Bulldogs.

I, alas, will not get to see much of the Syracuse-Butler game. I'll be in the dome watching the East Regional semifinals which, for some brilliant reason, were scheduled to overlap SU's games. And since the NCAA refuses to allow the dome to show the games on a large public screen, the best I can hope for is peering into a private box to catch the action. If you have my cell number, please text me updates! But here's my rationale: the worst case scenario is that Syracuse loses tonight. If I don't see that happen, it will be less depressing then if I did. If they win, I'll be able to watch them Saturday, although it will once again have to be somewhere around the dome.

Meanwhile, the Cornell-Kentucky game is getting just as much hype as the Syracuse game here in town. Last night I crashed a Cornell rally and shook hands with Ryan Wittman, Jeff Foote, and Coach Donahue. It was very exciting. Wittman is taller than me, Foote is much taller, but Donahue is shooter. Other than that, I didn't learn much. I think Cornell might be better than Northern Iowa (Dr. Paul, Cornell class of '04, thinks the Big Red are definitely superior). Say what you will about John Calipari, he's a good game coach and the Wildcats won't be surprised. Still, I really believe the Big Red can hang in this thing. Obviously, if they keep shooting like they have, there is no reason they can't. As an upstate New York team, Cornell is legally required to throw a zone out there on occasion, so watch out for how John Wall and Co. deal with that.

The Kansas-Cornell game when the Big Red played the Jayhawks tough is revealing. Wittman hit 5 threes, and Foote was able to get 12 points against Cole Aldrich even without Aldrich getting into foul trouble. Sherron Collins went nuts for 33 points, saving Kansas that night. John Wall is not quite as explosive, so I think it comes down to whether the big forwards for Kentucky, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson, get it going. Foote is a nice player, but he won't be able to handle both of them without a great game plan from Donahue.

Go Orange. Go Big Red.

Day 3: What do we know?

How great are brackets? I (heart) brackets! Today, for a couple hours, we were all Panthers!! A few hours earlier, we got to be Gaels!! I love it! But, most importantly, what did we learn? (And what are we still wondering about?)

• We learned mid-major teams shoot threes like babies poop. It doesn't matter when or where; if they feel like it, they'll do it. (Hope these YouTube clips still work when you click them... They're delightful.)
  

Example #1 - St. Mary's's...'s...'s Mickey McConnell, with 17 seconds on the shot clock, steps back and launches a rainbow off the glass and in! I loved Verne and Raferty...
Verne: "WooooOOOOOW" (as the shot goes up, clearly thinking it was WAY off)
Verne: "OH NO! OH NO!" (If he was 50 years younger, he'd have added "he di'nt!")
Raf: "A HAIL MARY... FOR ST. MARY'S!! GOODNESS! A KISS TO BE REMEMBERED... POTENTIALLY!"
Love it! Love it! Love it!

Example #2 - St. Mary'ss'...s'...s' Matthew Dellavedova falls down (not on purpose...or WAS it?) then rolls back up and CANS IT!
Raf: "A little MAGIC! ...The GLOBIES are in town!!"

Example #3 - Northern Iowa's Ali Farokhmanesh. Will we ever forget that name? In NO strategy book is that a smart shot. That's the beauty of it. Even better, the Great Ali had missed all seven of his shots in the second half, six of them threes. "I was going to see if I could drive it, but then he backed off so far I thought I might as well shoot this one." Of course. Why wouldn't you?

• We know, as my brother pointed out, that the only thing standing between Bill Self and a Roy Williams-before-UNC-like reputation for choking more than winning in the Big Dance is a Memphis collapse. To put it another way, Kansas are a Memphis collapse away from a 32-year championship drought and a dark cloud-reputation as the tournament's biggest underachievers.

• We know Cole Aldrich is a stud, and was just starting to destroy the Panthers when he hurt his ankle. Plus, he's a monster on defense (although I don't think he would've blocked the Farokhmanesh). It seemed to me that Kansas wasn't being stubborn enough about getting Cole the ball, even after he started making those hook shots. It was like Kansas had so much talent that they felt they had to balance the scoring. Or perhaps they were so rushed to close the gap back down that they didn't take their time and get the big guy the ball. Ultimately, the blame for that falls on Self and Sherron Collins.
  

• We know Kansas State has great guards, and Jacob Pullen is deadly when he's hot. But can they beat a good team without getting front-court scoring? Can they beat a good team if The Beard is cold?

• We know Baylor's starting lineup is filled with studs. They proved it through the first 3 halves they played in this tournament. But if Old Dominion can make a game of it and outscore Baylor in the second half, does Baylor belong with the Elites? Lucky them, they now head to Houston.

• We know Butler is a great second half team, but so is Syracuse. Can the Bulldogs keep the score close enough in the first half of that potential match-up to be within striking distance of the Orange and keep their run going?

• Speaking of Butler, we know their coach Brad Stevens is excellent. I thought he did a great job with his substitution patterns down the stretch. Plus, Butler didn't panic going small with Matt Howard on the bench with four fouls, and Stevens knew right when it was time to get Howard back in. They may start slow, but the Bulldogs know how to finish games.
  

• We know Kentucky is red hot. Will they get a quality opponent before the Final Four?

• We know Tennessee looked good against teams with medium talent, but it's hard to imagine them beating Ohio State.

• We know Gonzaga has NBA-caliber talent in freshman forward Elias Harris and senior guard Matt Bouldin. We know Gonzaga is always a solid rebounding team (38.2 RPG ties them with Syracuse for 50th in the nation). We know Uncle Aku is sitting this one out. And we know Syracuse has to do the following to win:

-Keep Ricky out of foul trouble. The less time DaShonte Riley HAS to play, the better for Syracuse.
-Make it a high scoring game. Gonzaga likes to free-wheel too, so this could be a very entertaining game. Still, as we know, a fast-paced game is good for the Orange.
-Harass Bouldin on the perimeter. A few Zags can shoot the three, including forwards Harris and Bol Kong, but Bouldin makes this team click. He's their Sherron Collins.
-Take care of business. Survive and advance. Do work.

Day 2: What haven't we not learned?

Dear NCAA selection committee,

Thank you for seeding a very solid Vermont team, led by Marqus Blakely who could start for most of the teams in the tournament, at 16 against the Orange. Also, thank you for randomly giving Gonzaga a low 8-seed to meet SU in the second round. You guys are brilliant, and clearly weren't drunk when you seeded this tournament.

Sincerely,

Sarcastic in Syracuse

On to a brand new blog gimmick, "what haven't we not learned?"

• We haven't not learned that Cornell is good, and Wisconsin is bad. To paraphrase the late, great Patrick Swayze in Point Break, I want Cornell to play in the dome next week so bad it's like acid [he might have said ass, there] in your mouth.

• We haven't not learned that the declarations of the Big East's demise were premature.

• Also, we haven't not learned that the 1s and 2 seeds (except Villanova), are really, really good. Don't be surprised if the tourney is chalky, like Pepto Bismol, from here on out.

• We definitely haven't not learned that Xavier's Jordan Crawford is a stud. I think they pit Dump on Sunday. Wait. Scratch that. Reverse it. I think they dump Pitt on Sunday.
  

• New Mexico State didn't not NOT learn how to close a game. Yikes! I've never seen a team play the final two minutes with all five players running around with both hands around their necks. Too bad. Oh yeah, we didn't not know this before, but I wasn't not reminded that Izzo never fails to win in the first round.

• Finally, we haven't not learned not to take great days like Thursday for granted. It was a remarkable day for the tournament. We're halfway through, by number of games. But the quality of play just gets better from her, and there's still FIVE rounds left!
  

Day 1: What have we learned?

With two games still in action, what have we learned today?

• I don't buy the whole "The Big East was overrated" conclusion. This kind of thing happens to one or more conferences in the first round every year. Last year, for example, four ACC teams lost in the first round - a 4-seed, a 5-seed, and two 7-seeds. The ACC won the whole thing with North Carolina. However, I will buy, "the committee overrated some Big East teams."

• We did learn that Villanova is still playing poorly. Saint Mary's is going to give them a heckuva game! Heckuva!

• We learned that the MAC (Ohio) is dangerous. Well, at least Georgetown learned that. I already knew, I was just reminded of it. If there is a good side to the 96-team proposal under consideration, its that conferences like the MAC, the MVC (Northern Iowa), and the WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary's) will get multiple bids.

• We learned Marquette is mediocre, and Quincy Poindexter is more than just a sweet name.

• We learned Notre Dame was a crummy team that got hot, and should not have gotten a 6-seed.

• We learned Butler is legit. From an SU perspective, I fear them at least as much I fear Pitt or Kansas State, partly because the farther we go the more I'll believe we're playing well.

• We also learned Baylor is very dangerous, with a variety of weapons. From a Duke perspective, I fear them much more than I did yesterday. That will be an epic regional final.

• We learned, actually I noticed...um...BYU is one win away from getting to play in Salt Lake City! Jimmer-ny Fredette!!
  

• Finally, and most importantly, we learned we were right. This year really is watered down. This tournament is wide open. Anything is fair game. Northern Iowa knocking off Kansas? Cornell to the elite eight? Butler to the final four? A 1-seed going down? (AAAHHH! NOOOOOO!!!)
  

Predictions for tomorrow... (I know, these are useless with brackets already turned in. Oh well!)

• Big East goes 4-0.
• I like the 12-seeds more than ever... New Mexico State, Cornell, Utah State.
  
• Gonzaga wins big, and SU fans shudder collectively.
• A 1-seed could fall... Wait! No! I take it back! Aaaahhhh!!! Nooooo!!!
  
• Xavier wins big.
• There is always one blowout upset win in the first round... and it may have already happened with Ohio. But if it is going to happen again, I think it'll be...Siena.
• Memphis edges Mississippi in the NIT.

Happy March Madness!

Fun and Tourney Games

Note: I messed up my "Secret Mid-Major/Celebrity Crush" analogy two posts ago, so I fixed it waaaaaay at the bottom. OK...on to the blog.

First, a reminder on the illegality of gambling:

"Danny is an employee of the club. He can't work AND play, especially in something as illegal as this!"
-Judge Smails

Bracket pools are great, because anyone who understands the concept of "seeding" can participate competitively. But I've come across several other cool games you can play amongst a small group.

One game I used to play requires a foursome. Everyone drafts one 1-seed, one 2-seed, etc., with each participant alternating first pick. At the end, each person has a list of 16 teams to root for. Set up a scoring system - we gave 1 point for each win. The most points wins.

Here's another one. Since high school, my brother has been a part of an annual competition that requires a bit more research. Here are the rules:

1. Five participants draft 10 INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS.
2. Total points scored by your team of players over the course of the tournament wins.
3. Everyone has to draft one player from a team seeded 12 or worse.

To win, you have to balance picking top scorers with picking guys on teams that will go deep into the tournament.

My brother called me up for some advice on picking his team. Unfortunately, I've never been lucky enough to be a part of this delectable competition, so I'm no expert on the strategy. However, I do know a tiny bit about the college basketball landscape. So, to help Dan out, and to give Sports Sauna readers some "players to watch," here is a prediction for the top 50 TOTAL scorers for the 2010 tournament.

A few notes...

• Among the 5o players mentioned below are all of the top scorers coming into the tournament who play for teams that could realistically win at least a game, so this list doubles as a nice "players to watch" cheat sheet for the casual fan. No, I refuse to put Vermont's Marqus Blakely on this list.
  
• Seed, team, and points per game are noted.
• I was going to do this as a mock draft, but I decided that was too complicated so I've just rated them in order of players I would target if I was in Dan's league. Still, to make this an interesting read, I've broken it down into 10 groups of five and added informative and mildly entertaining comments after each bunch.

1. Sherron Collins - 1-Kansas - 15.6
2. John Wall - 1-Kentucky - 16.9
3. Jon Scheyer - 1-Duke - 18.6
4. Evan Turner - 2-Ohio St - 20.3
5. Wes Johnson - 1-Syracuse - 16.0

To win Dan's game, you have to go with the best odds of playing the most games, so the best player on the best team has to be number one, followed by the best player on the best team on the opposite side of the bracket. Scheyer edges Turner only because Ohio State has to get through Kansas to play more than four games. Rounding out the top scorers from the 1-seeds is Wes, who finally looked healthy in his last game.

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6. Jacob Pullen - 2-Kansas St - 18.9
7. Da'Sean Butler - 2-West Virginia - 17.4
8. Scottie Reynolds - 2-Villanova - 18.5
9. Kyle Singler - 1-Duke - 17.6
10. DeMarcus Cousins - 1-Kentucky - 15.3

The rest of the best scorers from the 2-seeds are listed here, with Pullen's beard giving him the edge. It's hard to believe, but Kyle Singler has quietly become underrated over the last part of the season.

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11. Nolan Smith - 1-Duke - 17.3
12. Patrick Patterson - 1-Kentucky - 14.7
13. Xavier Henry - 1-Kansas - 13.6
14. LaceDarius Dunn - 3-Baylor - 19.4
15. Cole Aldrich - 1-Kansas - 11.2

Gotta keep picking the 1-seeds. It's so easy to look past Baylor. I mean, it's freakin' Baylor! But that South bracket is so weak... Also, without checking, I'm pretty sure LaceDarius is pronounced exactly like it looks.

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16. Denis Clemente - 2-Kansas St - 16.2
17. Marcus Morris - 1-Kansas - 12.3
18. William Buford - 2-Ohio St -14.5
19. Greivis Vasquez - 4-Maryland - 19.5
20. Andy Rautins - 1-Syracuse - 11.7

Greivis Vasquez may sound like a Hispanic character from Harry Potter, but he's actually a killer scorer from Venezuela. Meanwhile, if Syracuse goes on a run, that means Andy is hot. (No, not THAT kind of hot!)

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21. Kris Joseph - 1-Syracuse - 11.3
22. Austin Freeman - 3-Georgetown - 16.7
23. Darington Hobson - 3-New Mexico - 16.2
24. Greg Monroe - 3-Georgetown - 16.1
25. Ashton Gibbs - 3-Pittsburgh - 15.8

On the other hand, maybe KJ will key an SU run. Ostensibly he has the most to gain from the A-O injury, but on the other hand he was already averaging 27 minutes, third most on the team. If Georgetown was the 3-seed in any other bracket, I'd like their chances of making the final four a lot more. And no, Darington Hobson isn't a stud from a Jane Austen novel... he's a stud for New Mexico.

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26. Tweety Carter - 3-Baylor - 15.7
27. Corey Fischer - 2-Villanova - 13.7
28. Kevin Jones - 2-West Virginia - 13.5
29. Chris Wright - 3-Georgetown - 14.8
30. Rick Jackson - 1-Syracuse - 10.0

On the third hand, maybe Ricky will go nuts during an SU run. Maybe HE has the most to gain from A-O's injury. He was brilliant during the Georgetown-Providence-Villanova high point of the season.

WAIT.

Hold everything.

Baylor has players named LaceDarius and Tweety?!? With 70s ABA names like those, they're making a run in this tournament. In fact, check out the other guys I just found on their roster...
(WARNING: excessive use of parentheses ahead!!)
(Note: I did little to no research on these guys, other than looking at the roster)
Ekpe Udoh (Nigerian center (even though he was born in OK))
Quincy Acy (perfect name for a glue guy)
Josh Lomers (backup white center (if Lomers is black, I'm going to be really disappointed))
A.J. Walton (token son of Bill Walton (if A.J. isn't related to Bill Walton, I'm going to be really disappointed))
Nolan Dennis (token guy with two first names a la Kris Joseph and Xavier Henry)
Dragan Sekelja (token Croatian center who they realized was a stiff AFTER they gave him a scholarship (Baylor should go see...How to Tame Your DRAGAN!!!))
AND the bench warming, walk-on odd couple... Oscar and Mr. Crump!

Wow. Needless to say, I am now rooting for Baylor.

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31. Luke Harangody - 6-Notre Dame - 22.4
32. Kalin Lucas - 5-Michigan St - 14.9
33. Eric Bledsoe - 1-Kentucky - 10.8
34. Donald Sloan - 5-Texas A&M - 18.2
35. Gordon Hayward - 5-Butler - 15.4

Notre Dame sure looked good down the stretch. They were all over the place this season. I could see them getting knocked off by Old Dominion. I could see them in the Final Four. Kalin Lucas could benefit from playing for the best tournament coach... maybe ever?? Tom Izzo has made the Sweet 16 eight times, and the final four five times. Hayward, just a sophomore, is going to win a handful of tourney games before his college career is done.

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36. Jimmer Fredette - 7-BYU - 21.7
37. Jordan Crawford - 6-Xavier - 19.7
38. Lazar Hayward - 6-Marquette - 18.1
39. Kevin Anderson - 7-Richmond - 17.8
40. Quincy Poindexter - 11-Washington - 19.8

Jimmer (let's all agree to call him by his sweet first name) scored 49 against Arizona and 45 against TCU this season. Lazar (let's all agree to call him by his sweet first name) has helped the Golden Eagles go 3-1 in OT games this season. And Quincy Poindexter (let's all agree to call him by his sweet full name) may play in the CRAP-10, but that doesn't mean Washington can't play to its potential and reach the Sweet 16 out of a weak pod.

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41. Xavier Silas - 9-Northern Iowa - 19.7
42. Ryan Wittman - 12-Cornell - 17.5
43. Jerome Randle - 8-California - 18.7
44. Tre'Von Willis - 8-UNLV - 17.3
45. Damion James - 8-Texas - 18.0

Northern Iowa is my super-duper, "Merlin approved," (I think Davs, who gets that joke, is the only one still reading a this point. Hi Davs! Miss you!) dark horse. The Missouri Valley Conference plays some good basketball, and NIU is good enough to play Kansas close on a neutral court. Cornell is Jay Bilas's super-duper, "Merlin approved," dark horse, and Wittman is their best player. By the way, anybody remember the origin of the term "dark horse?" I think I've read stories that say it comes from horse racing. Still, is anyone else afraid it has some horrible racial connotation? I mean, would you be comfortable saying, "Barack Obama was a dark horse Presidential candidate?" Me neither. Oh, you said "Yes I would be comfortable." Sorry, I mis-heard you.

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46. Jahmar Young - 12-New Mexico St - 20.5
47. Jonathan Gibson - 12-New Mexico St - 17.5
48. Randy Culpepper - 12-UTEP - 18.0
49. Aubrey Coleman - 13-Houston - 25.6
50. Anthony Johnson - 14-Montana - 19.6

Sweet sassy molassy, New Mexico State has TWO guys who score 17+ points per game? AND they've got the infamous 12-seed? Okay, I'm picking them to win a game in the rest of my brackets.


Finally, I totally screwed up the "Secret Mid-Major/Celebrity Crush" analogy I made on Sunday's post. Western Kentucky won a game in the tournament last year, and made the Sweet 16 the year before! Denise Richards peaked in 1999 as Christmas Jones in The World is Not Enough, unless you count her 2003 cameo in Love Actually. So here is my revised list...

Gonzaga is OBVIOUSLY Mila Kunis
The Zags made their first remarkable tournament run in the 1998-99 season...the same season That 70s Show came on the air! Since then, just when you think they're going away, Gonzaga and Family Guy come back stronger than ever. Gonzaga's and Mila's profiles have consistently risen, to the point where the Zags are perennially in the top-25 and Mila is getting the big bucks to play opposite Denzel Washington.

Butler is kinda Isla Fischer
The Bulldogs ALMOST broke out in a memorable first round game against the tournament's runner-up, Florida in 2000 while Isla was trying to break out on some random Australian TV shows and movies. Then in 2003 and 2007, Butler crashed the Sweet 16. In between, in 2005, Isla hit the big time in Wedding Crashers. Since then, both have risen towards elite status.

Western Kentucky is definitely Marisa Tomei
Their best moments are surprisingly few and far between over a long period...
1993: The Hilltoppers made the Sweet 16 the same month that Marisa won Best Supporting Actress for My Cousin Vinny.
1995: The Hilltoppers play to their 8-seed, winning only one game, then start regularly missing the tournament. Marisa is parlaying her Oscar into a string of forgettable films.
2001-03: Starts off promising for both, but in 3 tourney bids, WKU wins 0 games. In the Bedroom came out in 2001, and Marisa was brilliant in it, getting her second Oscar nomination, but she followed it up with... nothing much.
2008-09: Back to the Sweet 16 for the Hilltoppers in 2008, and another tourney win in 09. Back to the Oscars in 09 for Marisa with The Wrestler from 2008.

Eleven Teams I'd Rather Face than Vermont

If we all talk about it then it won't happen, right?

When Syracuse takes the court Friday night, it will be the 104th time a 1-seed has played a 16-seed. The 1-seed has never lost that match-up.

Going into 1991, no 2-seed had ever lost in the first round. Then the Richmond Spiders knocked off the Orange. Happily, I don't remember that event.

Someday, it will happen. A 1-seed will lose in the first round. Could it be the Orange?

It's preposterous, of course. Syracuse is really, really good. They won the toughest conference in the country. They've got a hall of fame coach. They've got a future NBA starter, maybe two depending on if Kris Joseph has made your head explode yet. They play great defense. They're ridiculously balanced on offense.

Finally, and most importantly, they're playing in Buffalo. Normally, the underdog gets the crowd behind them if they keep the game close. But in Buffalo Syracuse fans should dominate. Come on Buffalo! Be loud!

There is the injury to dear old Uncle Aku. That is a serious problem, and the second biggest reason I'm worried about this game.

The biggest reason is the opponent. Vermont. March 18, 2005. Sorrentine. Coppenrath. THAT game I do remember, though I didn't watch it. I was sitting in a back hallway of the Albany Pepsi Center (now the Times Union Center), monitoring the computers for the XMIevents.com webcast of the ECAC men's hockey semifinals. Cornell was playing against...yup...Vermont. They kept announcing the score over the loudspeaker, and the Vermont fans would cheer. It was the only thing they could cheer about, with their team ultimately losing 3-0. Even though it might have affected the bandwidth over which we were streaming live video, I pulled up ESPN.com's text play-by-play. When the game went into overtime, I was sure SU was going to pull it out. Didn't happen. The Catamounts outscored the Orange 9-6. Going in, I was so certain SU was going to win that game, and I was going to have several more chances to watch Hak, my all-time favorite Orangeman. Instead, he finished his college career while I was sitting alone in the bowels of the Pepsi Center, refreshing the web page in disbelief.

So what about the 2010 Catamounts? Coppenrath is gone. Sorrentine is gone. Their coach, Tom Brennan, is working for ESPN. How good could they be? Well, Lunardi had them as a 15-seed, not a 16. Plus, they've got a really nice player in Marqus Blakely, a senior, who is the kind of guy that could give us all nightmares for the rest of our lives. He averages 17 points, 9 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. The only thing he doesn't do is shoot the three. Okay, so the zone should take care of him, right? But what if it doesn't?

Blakely shot 297 free throws this season, or 8.7 per game. For comparison, KJ got to the line 107 times this season, the most on the Orange at 3.3 times per game. What if Blakely gets Ricky in foul trouble? What if DaShonte Riley has to play major minutes? What if HE gets in foul trouble?

Vermont isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but anyone can get hot. Their best shooter is another senior named Maurice Joseph. Born in Montreal, Joseph played two seasons at Michigan State before transferring to Vermont. He also happens to be KJ's older brother. Perfect. What if KJ has a psychological block? What if Maurice goes off playing against his little bro?

Okay, I'm sorry. I'm driving you, me, and the people who occasionally post spam ads on this blog crazy. Still, I'd rather face another team. Like who? Like these chumps and chumpettes...

1. Ark-Pine Bluff: Started the season 0-11.
2. East Tennessee State: They play a zone. How cute!
3. Lehigh: The Patriot League champs...pleeease...
4. Winthrop: Knocked off Notre Dame in the first round in 2007. This year, they couldn't hold Clemson to less than 100 points.
5. Robert Morris: Coaches philosophy - "To be honest with you, I have no idea what we do sometimes on offense. My whole thing is defend."
6. UC-Santa Barbara: Saint Barbara is a women's college basketball fan.
7. Morgan State: Literally, no inside game.
8. North Texas: You know what's weird? The team's mascot is the Mean Green, and "Mean" Joe Greene is an alumus!
9. Oakland: A rematch against a team we beat by 32? Yes please!
10. Sam Houston St: They love to run, which would play right into SU's Onuaku-less hands.
11. Texas: What? I'm serious! Bring 'em on!

Notent Notables - I (heart) brackets

I love Championship weekend. I had basketball on all weekend in background while I was grading midterms. I paid attention for the last few minutes of every close game. This evening, I thoroughly enjoyed the selection show for the first time since before the conspiracy of 2007. (Even last year, there was that tiny kernel of doubt...ugh. Scarred for life.) Now, I'm ready to bathe in the brackets. Here are my thoughts on SU, favorites, dark-horses, Cinderellas, Thad Matta, the Butler Bulldogs, and everything else I love about March.

(Note: I originally posted this Sunday night, then did some editing Monday afternoon.)

• The Duke-over-Syracuse controversy is only annoying to me in the post-2007 world. The other issue I have with the bracket is the Mississippi State snub. Ultimately, I have three problems with the way the committee chooses team. First of all, I don't like the make-up of the committee. I mean, look at these characters. "The dance of the living dead!" as the late, great Rodney Dangerfield/Al Czervik would put it. You're telling me athletic directors and conference commissioners, who have to manage rowing teams and volleyball tournaments, know more about college basketball than you or me? Let's get some coaches, or at least ex-coaches who know the intricacies of the game in there. Let's get some journalists into the room, who have less to gain or lose from the selection process.

• Another major problem with the selection process is consistency. The members of the committee serve five year terms, so the group is always made up mostly of holdovers. Still, they've made a lot of head scratching moves. Last year, Saint Mary's was the most infamous snub, missing apparently because their WCC schedule was too weak. This year, Utah State and UTEP edged out Illinois, Virginia Tech, and Mississippi State. Back in 2004, OK State won the Big 12 championship on selection Sunday, finishing with a 27-3 record while Duke lost the ACC championship to Maryland and finished 27-5. When Duke got the fourth 1-seed over OK-State, everyone wondered if the committee had even bothered to consider the Big 12 championship.

Apparently, Duke got the edge over Syracuse for the shorter trip to Houston (and the weakest bracket) because they won the ACC tournament while SU was bounced in the first round and its starting center has a day-to-day knee injury. Duke's 3 conference tourney wins came over powerhouses like Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech. Tech is the only tourney team of the bunch, and got a lower seed then all three of the teams that gave SU its four losses on the season: Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Georgetown. The conference tournament counts!

Meanwhile, Mississippi State lost in overtime of its conference tournament to the second best team on the committee's board, Kentucky. That game only went into overtime when Kentucky tied the game with a fraction of a second to go. It beat two tournament teams along the way: 10-seed Florida and 4-seed Vanderbilt. The conference tournament doesn't count! (Certainly, a team's actual on-the-court performance in its most recent games isn't considered. Why would it be? Well, it is for some, but not for others.)

Whatever. We'll forget about those crappy teams that missed the tournament soon. Still, the committee could be better. Here's my idea:

What if Joe Lunardi and four other Bracketologists put the bracket together? And what if the bracket Lunardi posted every week wasn't just his best guess, it was the official tournament bracket? And what if Lunardi and Co. released updated brackets daily every day of Championship Week? CBS would lose out on the ratings of the selection show, but college basketball's regular season would gain attention as the casual fan gained an appreciation for way regular season games affect the post-season. You know how college football fans claim they have the best regular season of any sport because it feels like every week matters? It'd be closer to that, only with a tournament at the end that fairly determines a champion. What's the problem?

• Okay, that was a long Notable...I'll make them shorter. My other suggestion for the committee: consider head-to-head results. I know its imperfect because so few teams play head-to-head. Still, I would have been furious if West Virginia had edged Syracuse for a 1-seed because the Orange beat the Mountaineers in the regular season. If teams are really close on the committee's board, head-to-head can factor in, with the most recent meeting breaking any ties.
  

• But enough complaining. It's time for my first prediction: Evan Turner will make the #1 draft pick a heavy debate between him and John Wall by the end of the tournament.

• I know I was down on West Virginia before. I changed my mind. Don't get me wrong, Huggins is still a weak game coach. Da'Sean Butler makes up for it though. I should've learned this before he took over the Garden this weak. Against Syracuse, he realized in the second half, "Geez, my coach's offensive planning doesn't make any sense. I better take this game over or we're going to lose!" Butler shot poorly in that game, but he contributed across the box score and hit some key shots down the stretch. Now he's playing better than ever. I think they get to the Elite Eight at least.

• Look out Villanova. They're playing poorly; clearly they're the weakest 2-seed. And in the second round, Richmond could spring an upset. They've got a little guard, Kevin Anderson, who can really catch fire.

• I love Butler. They're my secret mid-major crush... my "Mila Kunis," if you will. But a 5-seed seems really high. I don't understand how the Bulldogs get a 5, but Gonzaga gets an 8 and Cornell gets a 12. (While we're at it, Gonzaga is Isla Fisher and Western Kentucky is Denise Richards, because the Hilltoppers haven't made a run recently, but they retain a place in my heart. Also, the Hilltopper is insanely awesome, while Denise is just insane.)
  
• Speaking of mid-majors, Siena gets flailing 4-seed Purdue. The Boilermakers literally played like crap Saturday.

• Setting aside my love of the Orange, if I could go to every game at one 1st and 2nd round location, I would go to Spokane or Providence. In Spokane, Siena and Utah State could both spring upsets, and if the other pod goes chalk, you get Tom Izzo v. Gary Willliams in round 2. In Providence, you've got the weakest 2-seed (Nova) with one of two good mid-majors looming in the second round. The other Providence pod has a solid San Diego State taking on a streaky Tennessee team. Georgetown could make a run in the tournament, but never underestimate the Mwacky MAC, as I like to call them. This year Ohio survived the MAC bloodbath, and draws the Hoyas.

• Duke beware. A 16-seed has never beaten a 1-seed, of course. But I would like to bring up my play-in game theory prediction: the first 16-seed to pull off the upset will come out of the play-in game. It gives them a chance to build momentum and get comfortable in the arena. Of course, whenever there has been a close 16-1 game, it hasn't been the 16 coming from the play-in game. So I'm probably wrong. (Vermont! A 16-seed! AAHH!)

• Kentucky has some fabulous talent, but they seem to play down to their opponents. The Miss St game didn't make any sense on in the background. Over and over, I'd look up and see the Wildcats making some ridiculous offensive play, but somehow they trailed most of the game. They'll catch a team playing well - Temple, maybe - and lose before the Final Four.

• Potential George Mason (double-digit seed that makes a deep run): Hmmm... I'll go with Old Dominion. They've got tourney experience. Plus, they play in George Mason's conference

• Potential Harold "The Show" Arceneaux (player on tiny school who wins a game or two): Aubrey Coleman, guard, 13-seed Houston. Can I interest you in the nation's leading scorer at 25.6 ppg? What if I told you he bested his own scoring average against major teams like Memphis (W), Oklahoma (W), Miss St (L), Iowa St. (L), and Memphis (W) again? Does that do anything for you?

• Potential 2003 Syracuse (3 or 4-seed that gets hot and wins it all): Has to be 3-seed Georgetown, right? When they play well, they can beat anyone. Rebounding is literally their Achilles heel, though.

• As for the Orange, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw they had Vermont in the 1st round, followed by Gonzaga, likely, in the 2nd. Then I reminded myself they are playing in Buffalo, and that Vermont of 2010 isn't Vermont of 2005. Further down the road, I do not want to face Pittsburgh again. My buddy Dr. Paul says he's not afraid to face Pitt at this point, but if Pitt makes it that far, that means they're playing well. And if they're playing well, they have SU's number. Luckily, I think they'll get knocked off before then. Kansas State is tough, but so are most of the 2-seeds. I would both love (it'd be a good game) and hate (it'd be a good game) to play them in round 4. Kansas would probably be waiting in the Final Four, but you have to beat the best to be the best. And the Best get Better, etc., etc.

• Ultimately, I'm standing by the gut feeling I've had about SU all season. They could be a final four team if they play their best, but there are too many explosive teams standing between the Orange and the championship. In 2003, I told everyone before the tournament that the field was wide open, and we could be the ones who got hot and won it all. This year I feel like its the opposite; the field is wide open, and we're the kind of team that gets knocked off by the hot team. I'd be satisfied with Elite Eight and out in a great game against K-State or Pitt. I'd be happy with the Final Four. And beyond that... ...

• Initial bracket picks: The Elite Eight! Kansas over Ohio State. Syracuse over Kansas State. West Virginia over Temple. Duke over...who knows? Notre Dame, maybe?! (That's right, all four 1-seeds make the final 4. I'll probably change my mind by Thursday.)

• The championship: Kansas over West Virginia. I'm sick of the experts saying..."There are no great teams this year. Kansas is as close as you get." Kansas is great. They'll win it all.

Notent Notables: NCAA First Round

• Maybe I'm looking ahead, but I'm already excited for the UNC-Butler regional final.

• One of my new schticks is to try to predict ahead of time how many points will be needed to win the game. With five minutes to go in the Lackadaisicals-San Diego game, I predicted 60 points would win it. 60-60 was the final score at the end of regulation. Two minutes into OT I predicted 70 would be enough. The final score was 70-69.

• I think Stephan Curry scores at least 30 against Georgetown. That game could definitely go either way, although Davidson doesn't even have a center on the roster to match up with Hibbert.

• This one girl at Borders knew nothing about the NCAA tournament, but we talked her into filling out a bracket and, at the last second, entering the pool. The one bit of advice I gave her was "the lower numbered teams are the better teams." She subsequently turned in a bracket without a single upset in three of the four regions. Randomly she went nuts in the East: Tennessee over Washington for the regional final, with UNC losing to Indiana. She's not winning, but she's still very much in the mix.

• A lot of bad commercials on CBS, but I'm fortunate that my dad sprang for the March Madness package on satellite so I can Q/V between the games. There are a couple I like. I find the Delta campaign highly amusing. And Jordan's ads are always excellent.
  

• Speaking of commercials, instead of getting Jeff Bridges to voice a long boring monologue about Duracell batteries, they should have just edited the scene from The Big Lebowski where the Dude is lying on his back listening to bowling noises to have the walkman run out of batteries. Then Maude could bust in with her goons, and she could tell one of them to give the Dude new batteries. Then they'd all lie down and listen to bowling noises together.

• You know what? At some point, somebody should have realized that there was no way the Pac-10 suddenly became the powerhouse conference that the stats and the experts said they were. In retrospect, that somebody should have been the Sports Sauna. I apologize.

• Watching Clemson struggle against Villanova reminded me of two games. First, the massive rout Villanova mounted in the second half against Syracuse in this year's Big East tournament. Second, the Texas A&M upset of Syracuse two years ago, when Texas A&M clearly had more talent than your average 12-seed.
  

• I'm going to come right out and say it; I kinda...sorta...like Bobby Knight on ESPN. The first time I flipped to ESPN and he was on, he made me really uncomfortable and I had to change the channel. Think about that for a second. Can you imagine if the majority of the feedback ESPN gets regarding Bobby Knight is, "Yeah, I had to change the channel because I felt uncomfortable." I don't think that's what they're going for. Since then, I've gotten used to him, and realized that 90% of what he says is tongue-in-cheek or sarcasm. Now he actually gets me laughing. Granted, the laughter is mostly a nervous reaction to seeing him staring at me through the camera, but I'm not changing the channel any more. Plus, having just left the game he brings a lot of pertinent knowledge to the table.

• Speaking of ESPN, Rece Davis is doing yeoman's work anchoring a show that includes Dick Vitale and Bobby Knight. Thank goodness Digger Phelps is there, or Rece Davis might be the first sports anchor to have a nervous breakdown on camera. But seriously, I think it really helps Knight to have Vitale and Digger on either side of him. They both respect Knight, but they both know him well enough to get lost in his intense personality. Still, at the end of the day Rece Davis gets the bulk of the credit for the success of those shows.

• Generally very good commentating with, of course, the glaring exception of Billy Packer. At this point I'm picking blowout games with The Great Bill Raferty over close games with Packer. I hate the inertia that rules broadcasting assignments. Packer will call the final four because he has for three or four decades and he still works for the station that owns the NCAA rights. They should rotate that position a little bit.
  

• There were at least three guys named Hansbrough playing today. None of them will be a great NBA player. (Thank you, thank you! I'll be here all weekend!)
  

• I ended up not submitting my ultra-conservative bracket I created based on the musings I rambled on about on Tuesday. I didn't like the strategy after I came up with it, nor did I like the blog after I wrote it. Instead, I submitted two other intelligence/gut brackets. One has UNC, Texas, Vandy, and UCLA in the final four with the Bruins winning it all. The other has UNC, Georgetown, Duke, and Memphis with Georgetown winning it all. Currently, they are both almost at the bottom of the standings. The only person doing worse than me is the guy who is helping me run the pool. We're running the pool, we were the only two people to submit two brackets and we were in dead last after one day. My ultra-conservative Bracket, by the way, would be tied for first with three other guys (as of 6:30pm this afternoon).

• Besides the 1-seeds, here is a quick list of the teams that seemed most impressive after round one: Purdue, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Butler, Texas, Siena, Louisville.

• Now you'll have to excuse me. I'm going to go cry myself to sleep because more than half the games are done.
  

Celebrating the Demise of UConn

I think after the games are done I'll punch out a Notent Notables for the first round, but I had to give the UConn loss its own blog. Big East pride, Schmig East pride: I am delighted by their failure. What's even better is this is becoming a trend. Calhoun's teams lack heart or edge or guts or maybe all of the above. Even the commentators mentioned that they looked exactly like they did against George Mason two years ago (and in all their other games in that tournament). I believe the word they used was "lackadaisical." In fact, from now on I'm going to refer to them as the Connecticut Lackadaisical Huskies, if I remember next season.

I think Calhoun is done as a motivator. The game just ended, and I think he shouldn't even go back into the locker room. He should just head to the press conference and announce his retirement.

Meanwhile, all the other Big East teams have won, and looked pretty good doing it. Louisville and Villanova have yet to play. I like Villanova as a sleeper, and Louisville is a hot pick as a dark horse final four pick. This is win-win for the Big East. Their ugliest, least impressive, least likable team gets knocked out, and all of the rest of the teams could make a run.

OK, enough gloating. Well, one more thing. I'd much rather be a fan of a team that played with a positive attitude through a tough season and kept playing better into the NIT, than support a team that played like poop on national TV and lost as a 4-seed.

I should mention: I don't like UConn.

Bracket of Integrity

OK, so technically, I'm writing this post after midnight. But obviously, I made my Sheet of Integrity before the games started.

Before I give you my picks, I have to say, for all the days I could've missed all the games because I stupidly signed up for a 2pm-9pm shift at Borders, today was probably the best. I even caught the last 4 minutes of the Duke-Belmont game on the ride home. (I found myself pulling for Belmont. 8 years ago I would have been rooting for Duke. But graduating from Syracuse has sucked some of the energy out of my Duke fan-ness. Granted, they're still my second favorite team, but it's a much more distant second.) My only regret was missing the Mayo-Beasley game, which I couldn't even TiVo because it over-lapped with loss.

Without further ado, here's my bracket of integrity:

Round of 32 Results

East
UNC over Indiana

Notre Dame over Washington State

Louisville over Oklahoma

Butler over Tennessee

Notes: Butler is probably my third favorite team in college basketball, so there's a little emotion in that pick. But I think AJ Graves is good enough to be one of Those Guys and lead his team to the sweet sixteen, maybe further...

Midwest
Kansas over Kent State

Villanova over Vanderbilt

Wisconsin over Kansas State

Georgetown over Gonzaga

Notes: Yeah, I'm going Big East heavy this year. But I think Villanova has talent on par with Clemson and Vanderbilt (neither of which scare me), and I like Jay Wright as a coach. There's often a double-digit seed from a major conference who makes a run. I like Villanova in that role this year.

South
Memphis over Oregon

Michigan State over Oral Roberts

Stanford over Kentucky

St. Mary's over Texas

Notes: I liked the Oral Roberts pick because the last team to win the Big East tournament by playing four games was worn out for the tournament (The Gerry Run). I like St. Mary's out of the solid WCC (Gonzaga and San Diego) to knock out Texas before they can get back to their home state soil.

West
UCLA over BYU

Drake over San Diego

Purdue over Georgia

Duke over Arizona

Notes: I liked Georgia as a low seed from a major conference, and they almost pulled it out. Maybe they were tired from their conference tournament. This is a good but not great UConn team, and could certainly be upset by the WCC tournament champ.


Elite Eight Results

East
UNC over Butler

Midwest
Georgetown over Villanova

South
Stanford over Memphis

West
UCLA over Duke

Notes: Butler and Villanova are your Cinderellas, for reasons discussed above. Plus, the potential 1985 championship rematch in the midwestern regional final is too juicy not to happen. In the south, I'm picking Stanford because I don't trust Memphis out of their conference, and I already knocked out Texas. Stanford is solid enough to sneak into the Final Four. Out west, the UCLA-Duke game could be the game of the tournament, because UCLA won't be able to blow the game open and their defense will be tested with all the Blue Devils' weapons. Ultimately though, the superior Bruins will prevail.


Championship
UCLA over UNC

Notes: It's the Bruins' - and Ben Howland's - year. If I was a UCLA fan, I'd be in love with this team. No star, but everyone is freaking good. Lot's of fun-to-root-for role players. Everyone is good at something different. In this game, I think the Bruins can contain Hansbrough inside. Also, Roy Williams may be a hall of fame coach, but I'm taking Ben Howland in the tournament any day.

Random Walk Part 2: A Random Walk to San Antonio

If you're reading this without reading yesterday's post, you're a complete idiot. Geez, what a moron! Take the time to read it, or perhaps even better, don't read either. Go outside and get some fresh air.

Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, loves to use examples of probability to show how the stock market can be random and yet have the appearance of a pattern to analysts looking for a theory to beat the market. He tells the story of a statistics professor who began each year with the same example. He would have everyone in the class make up a bunch of results for a coin flip and, while he was out of the room, one person would actually flip a coin a bunch of times and record the results. Then they would mix up those results with the made-up ones and pile them on his desk. Every year he was able to pick out the real result from the made-up ones. Why? Because the real result had the longest streak in it. If you make up coin flip results, you'll probably write something like: HTHTTTHHT. In other words, you'll put down a result that looks random. But the real result will be more like: HHHHTTHHHHTTTTTT.

Malkiel draws a similar lesson from sports. It's one that is mildly frustrating for sports fans to accept. Let's say Gerry McNamara is shooting 41% from 3-point range for some European team. One day he starts the game with 5 straight made threes. He's on a streak! What are the odds that he makes his sixth shot? If I was in the building, as he released that sixth shot, I would have a certainty that it was going in. He's hot! He's in the zone! In fact, the odds are 41%. Malkiel cites statistical studies of basketball shooting tendencies that show there is no corollary between the result of one shot and the result of the next shot. In retrospect, Gerry had a great game. But you can't use streaks to predict the future. You can't predict a made shot. You can't predict when a baseball player will have a slump, or break out of one. You can't predict March Madness.

But Paul, I've predicted those things correctly. Yes, but you've also predicted them incorrectly. There's no system for picking NCAA brackets. If there was, we'd at least see one perfect bracket each year. But we never do. (Here's a quick, cool story about the odds of getting a perfect bracket. Basically, it's impossible.)

Yesterday I was talking to a guy at Borders who said he had finished in the top 3 in his pool 3 straight years. His strategy: spend only a moment thinking about the games and go with your gut. I wasn't impressed. Come back when you've finished in the money 10 straight years and maybe I'll copy your brackets next year. The tournament is certifiably insane. This decade we've had a final four with two 8-seeds (2000), and another with an 11-seed (2006). That crazy 2000 season saw only two double-digit seeds get out of the first round. A year later, nine double-digit seeds got out of the first round! But we know this.

Now that I've argued that no system for picking brackets will work, I'm going to propose a system for picking your bracket. Like fantasy baseball, there is so much about the tournament that is predictable. That's where you need to try to make your money. (I say "you" because I think I've only finished in the money once in my life, and that was when I was about 15. I was in the 99th percentile on ESPN.com going into the final four during my junior year of high school. My track record is not good in pools, though. Fair warning.)

OK, so you know the basic seed v. seed stats for the first round. Number 1 seeds never lose, 4-seeds lose about once every five games, etc. That's a great place to start. If you have never read any of Peter Tiernan's statistical analysis on ESPN.com, you need to. I'm not going to go into all the details, but one of the things Tieran has tried to do is identify common characteristics of teams that pull off upsets. Generally, those include a high regular season scoring margin (especially for small- and mid-level conference teams), frontcourt scoring, and actual tournament experience. I tend to think that the sample of only 21 years is a little too small to draw strong conclusions from those similarities, but it is worth considering when looking at your bracket. Far more important is the average success of the different seeds.

There are a lot of different pools out there. A certain bookstore I'm aware of will probably have only about 10 to 15 entries. ESPN.com will have hundreds of thousands. You should bet on chaos far more liberally when facing a large number of opponents than when you're in a small competition. If something crazy happens, and you happen to have it on your ESPN.com bracket, you'll have a slightly wider margin of error than if the seeds generally hold.

In your office pool, you have to consider the scoring system. The aforementioned bookstore's pool is using a 1-2-4-8-10-12 scoring system that, it bears mentioning, I did not devise. That means the same amount of points are available for picking the final four as picking the 32, 16, and eight (32). Then the final two and the champion picks are worth less, total (20 and 12). Therefore, whoever picks the most final four teams is going to have a very good chance of winning the pool. Since the number of entries is small, it would be wise to submit a conservative final four, rather then go for an all-or-nothing final four.

Here are the numbers to consider, as quoted by Tiernan.
The 92 Final Four teams of the modern era are made up of:
• 38 No. 1 seeds (41.3 percent of semifinalists)
• 21 No. 2 seeds (22.8 percent)
• 12 No. 3 seeds (13.0 percent)
• nine No. 4 seeds (9.8 percent)
• four No. 5 seeds (4.3 percent)
• three No. 6 seeds (3.3 percent)
• three No. 8 seeds (3.3 percent)
• two No. 11 seeds (2.2 percent)

Let's start with the lower seeds. Since almost one fourth of the final fours in the modern era were a four-seed or lower, I should have one four-seed or lower make the final four in my bracket, right? Wrong! Even if you narrow it down to just 4, 5, 6, 8, and 11 seeds, there are 20 teams to pick that one team from. It's just not worth taking that gamble in a small pool.

The average final four has between one and two 1-seeds. So the conservative method would be to take two 1-seeds in your final four. Well, I'm advocating an ultra-conservative method for small and medium-sized office pools. If you take 3 1-seeds, you've got a great chance of getting points if only one 1-seed makes the final four and a good chance to get two teams right if two 1-seeds make the final four. If you only pick two, and they're the wrong 1-seeds, you're out of the tournament.

That ultra-conservative strategy leaves one more slot in the final four that can be filled with a 2 or a 3seed. (Okay, maybe a 4-seed, if it's a very strong team.) In fact, I'd advocate for a 1-1-1-2 final four in an office pool, the very same final four that Cousin Eric mocked Clark Kellogg for predicting. It gives you the safest chance for a solid amount of points. It's up to your knowledge and instinct to decide which teams they will be.

The added bonus from the conservative strategy is that even if they don't make the final four, 1-seeds win a lot of games. If one of your 1-seeds only makes the elite eight, you've still collected all of its points up to that point.

Obviously, there are many points to be won in the early rounds as well. Pick a few 7, 6, 5, or 4 seeds to get upset here or there. If you're right, you'll separate yourself from the pack. If you're wrong, just accept that the tournament is largely a random walk, and set yourself up to have the most teams alive in the later rounds. Take risks with picks only if your pool's scoring system will reward you for doing so, and never stray far from the statistical trends for seed performance.

Finally, even if you enter 15 different pools with 15 different brackets like me, have at least one "Sheet of Integrity," so at the end of the random walk to San Antonio, you have a chance to boast that you saw just about every step of the way coming.

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P.S. After I typed this whole thing out, I realized this strategy takes a lot of the fun out of filling out brackets, and some of the satisfaction out of winning. But I'm going to give it a try this year, and I'll keep you posted on the results.