Monday, March 14, 2011

Alternate NCAA Gambling: The Individual Points Game

It's that time of year again. Time for me to watch jealously as my brother Dan competes in his delightful individual players scoring pool. Here are the rules:
  1. Five participants draft 11 INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS.
  2. Total points scored by your team of players over the course of the tournament wins.
  3. In the 11th round, everyone has to draft one player from a double-digit seeded team
There's different strategies here. Some like to pound the best per-game scorers. Others like to ride the high seeds, hoping for more games. This year the play-in games added an interesting twist to the "double-digit" pick, since theoretically a double-digit seed has about 50/50 odds of getting a second game.

Round 1

Nolan Smith Duke Jon
Jimmer Fredette BYU Aaron
Ben Hansbrough Notre Dame Ryan
Jared Sullinger Ohio St Dan
Marcus Morris Kansas Jamie

The Ben Hansbrough pick is a head-scratcher, but otherwise you have to go best 1-seed players here. I think the Jimmer pick is dicey this year. BYU won't sneak up on anyone, although their path to the regional finals isn't too tough.

Round 2

Kyle Singler Duke Jamie
Ashton Gibbs Pitt Dan
Kris Joseph Syracuse Ryan
Kemba Walker UConn Aaron
Markieff Morris Kansas Jon

Ryan continues to pick drunkenly. With none of the 1-seed scorers, Aaron is gambling on a wide-open tournament.

Round 3

Harrison Barnes UNC Jon
Jujuan Johnson Purdue Aaron
Brandon Knight Kentucky Ryan
Kawhi Leonard SD State Dan
Bradley Wanamaker Pitt Jamie

Jamie is trying to grab 1-seed guys, but Wanamaker is a stretch here.

Round 4

Tim Abromaitis Notre Dame Jamie
William Buford Ohio St Dan
E'Twaun Moore Purdue Ryan
Jordan Hamilton Texas Aaron
Jon Diebler Ohio St Jon

Dan puts all his eggs in the Buckeye basket with Sullinger-Buford.

Round 5

Erving Walker Florida Jon
David Lighty Ohio St Aaron
Jon Leuer Wisconsin Ryan
Tyrel Reed Kansas Dan
Tyler Zeller UNC Jamie

Aaron grabs his first 1-seed player - the fourth Ohio State player taken.

Round 6

Jordan Taylor Wisconsin Jamie
Kenny Boynton Florida Dan
Jacob Pullen Kansas St Ryan
Terrence Jones Kentucky Aaron
Gilbert Brown Pittsburgh Jon

By this point the strategies are clear. Dan and Jon are going with the top seeds. Aaron is going with the top scorers. Jamie is finding a balance. Ryan is apparently insane. (That said...fear the beard.)

Round 7

Carleton Scott Notre Dame Jon
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas Aaron
Malcolm Thomas SD State Ryan
Preston Knowles Louisville Dan
Scoop Jardine Syracuse Jamie

Jon is digging deep into the 1- and 2-seed rosters. He's yet to take a player from a lower-seeded team. Unless they get bonus points for threes inside of 20 seconds left, the Scoop pick is a bit optimistic from Villanova grad Jamie.

Round 8

Jeremy Lamb Uconn Jamie
Rick Jackson Syracuse Dan
Dwight Hardy St. John's Ryan
Brandon Triche Syracuse Aaron
Derrick Williams Arizona Jon

All the relevant Orange players are gone now. Jon breaks with his strategy to take Williams off 5-seed Arizona.

Round 9

Seth Curry Duke Jon
Kalin Lucas Michigan St Aaron
Mason Plumlee Duke Ryan
Jackson Emery BYU Dan
Tristan Thompson Texas Jamie

Duke ties Ohio State for most players chosen. Will Kyrie Irving play? He could cut into Seth Curry's minutes, and steal points from other Blue Devils. Aaron gambles on a Tom Izzo run from a 10-seed. Dan grabs the other Cougar in the tournament. Interestingly, no one took Brandon Davies, who leads BYU in scoring.

Round 10

Kyle Kuric Louisville Jamie
Alex Oriakhi UConn Dan
John Henson UNC Ryan
John Jenkins Vanderbilt Aaron
Tu Holloway Xavier Jon

Jenkins (19.5 ppg) and Holloway (20.2 ppg) are potential stars in this tournament. It would have been a shame if no one had rolled the dice with them.

Round 11

Marcus Denmon Missouri Jon
Taylor Battle Penn State Aaron
Justin Harper Richmond Ryan
Jamarr Sanders UAB Dan
Demontez Stitt Clemson Jamie

Everyone has to take a double-digit seed here. Dan and Jamie are in direct competition in Tuesday night's play-in game. I would have also considered Nikola Vucevic, playing for USC in the other play-in game Wednesday. Of the other three, Harper scores 17.9 per game for Richmond; they're a 12-seed but I think their Princeton-style offense could be dangerous.

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