Predaction: Rutgers and Villanova

As we walked out of the dome after the Rutgers game, Sports Sauna Emeritis Chris and I tried to explain why SU struggled against one of the Big East's bottom tier teams. Was it the same old Scoop story? Well, yeah, he was typical Scoop. Then again, when the four guys around him all score at least 17 points, the point guard must be doing something right. Was it the same old zone-weak-at-the-top story? Mmmm, Rutgers did make 9 threes, but their 39.1% shooting from three was nothing compared to what Syracuse has been allowing in their losses. Was it Ricky's 4th foul and subsequent benching, which let Rutgers back into the game at a critical moment? Yes, that was huge.

Then I overheard some other guys talking in the men's room at the University Sheraton. (Ladies, that's where a lot of the best male thinking gets done - the men's room, I mean. Not specifically the one at the Sheraton, although I have done a lot of good thinking in that particular bathroom over the years.) The one guy said, simply, "We didn't shoot well tonight." Bammo. Epiphany. Maybe my thinking on this case has been very uptight. Syracuse didn't shoot well. Yes, SU's 43.1% shooting was only 3% off their season average. But if you watched the game, you know SU were missing a lot of shots inside. Plus we seemed to miss shots at the wrong moments, just when SU was on the verge of putting the game out of reach and just when Rutgers was about to make a run. If Syracuse shoots its average, the game doesn't go into overtime, and maybe Rutgers doesn't even make that late run, and everyone leaves feeling better.

They didn't shoot great on Saturday. They must shoot better tonight, because this is a nice win there for the taking. Villanova is ripe. The Wildcats lost two straight @ Rutgers and home to Pitt before winning @ Seton Hall and @ DePaul by a combined 5 total points. They needed OT to knock off DePaul Saturday, the worst team in the Big East. They are vulnerable. Based on the boxscore from the first time they met, here's what SU needs to do against Villanova tonight:

• Defend the three. The perimeter of the zone must be active. We know this. Boeheim knows this. Scoop and Triche know this. It was one of the last things my dog, Sydney Sue, said to me before she passed a few weeks back. "Rrrrroooowww! Defend the Perrrrrrimeterrrrr!" she said. (...too soon? I was just thinking of her because she hated cats, especially Wildcats.)
  

• Maximize second-chance points. Villanova is small. Syracuse is big. In the first game, SU out-rebounded the Wildcats 32-26 and grabbed 15 offensive rebounds.

• On a related point, keep Fair going. The last meeting came before C.J. Fair made The Leap. He played 10 minutes, took only one shot from the field, and grabbed only one board. His presence on offense playing off of Ricky and attacking the glass will give Villanova fits.

• Limit turnovers. SU had 15 in their first meeting, but it wasn't from who you might think. KJ and Ricky had 5-a-piece. Credit the swarm-ability of Jay Wright's defense which makes up for their height disadvantage. (You like "swarm-ability?" I just made that up! Jay Bilas feel free to use it, but you have to set up my dream dinner with Dicky V.)

• Limit fouls. Villanova made 22 of 24 free throws in the dome. Syracuse attempted half as many. Ironically, that was about the time Sports Illustrated ran that statistical analysis book excerpt about the key to home field advantage being referees' tendencies to make calls favoring the home team. I think Jim Burr and the rest of that crew must have read that article before the game and vowed not to fall into that pattern. Not that I'm still bitter...

Honestly? I feel like the Orange can do it. There are friendlier places than Monday night in The Pavilion, but as unsteady as the Orange have been, Villanova is playing its worst basketball of the year.

Prediction: Syracuse scores the same number of points as they did in the first meeting and wins, 72-70.