Friday, March 11, 2011

Predaction: Pitt-UConn, SU-St. John's, and UConn-SU

Let's say an alien scientist came to earth just to check things out. He'd study the earth - biology and geology. He'd study human history, religion, and philosophy. We can assume he's a pretty sharp creature, you know, since he's figured out interstellar travel. So he'd probably blow through those topics pretty quickly. It wouldn't be too long until he turned to popular culture. And not too much longer before he got to sports. And eventually, he'd get to college basketball.

"Who are the best teams in college basketball?" he'd ask.
"Well," I'd say. In this reality, I'm the appointed expert on college basketball for planet earth. Me and Dick Vitale, who become BFFs from the experience.
"That's debatable," I'd say. "But the objective consensus is that the Big East is the best conference in college basketball."
"Show me this, 'Big East!'" he'd say.

That's when I would pull out the Pitt-UConn and SU-St. John's games from yesterday - two great snapshots of what Big East basketball is like in 2011; indeed, two pretty good representations of what Big East basketball has always been.

On Wednesday, Sauna Emeritis Chris twittered, "If I could choose one sporting event to attend every year, I would choose the Big East tourney. NYC, top-flight talent, great rivalries"

Well put. Thursday afternoon, we also had a buzzer-beater, ridiculously physical play (well-officiated, it should be noted), passionate effort, top-notch coaching, excellent defenses, and an awesome crowd.

The UConn-Pitt finish was so good, it 1.) solidified a legendary season for a brilliant player, Kemba Walker; 2.) probably bumped Kemba up a couple spots in the draft, and 3.) revealed a fascinating coach-vs-coach feud boiling under the surface in the conference. The finish was so good, I've just thought of three more points about how good it was. 4.) I hate UConn as much as anyone and more than Georgetown, but I'm going to link to the video of that shot anyway because it was so awesome. 5.) I hate UConn as much as anyone, but Kemba Walker is the best late-game player in the NCAAs.

Finally, 6.) I hate Jim Calhoun as much as anyone and think Jamie Dixon is as good as any man-to-man coach in the nation, but Dixon was spectacularly out-coached on the final play. If you're Calhoun, you run a screen to try to set up a mismatch for Kemba. That's a no-brainer (although it's shocking how many teams don't at least try this when you have 10-15 seconds to run your last play). He did it. If you're Dixon, you want Wannamaker to do his best to stay with Kemba through the screens. You DON'T want Gary McGee on Kemba! Anyone but Big Gary! Yikes! McGee should NOT have switched off the screen. Who cares if some guy named Jamal Coombs-McDaniel is free on the perimeter for a couple seconds?? The only Husky I'm remotely worried about is Jeremy Lamb, and as scary as his talent is, he's still pretty raw. I'm no Jamie Dixon, but if I was, in that final huddle, I tell my guys not to switch on the screen. They switched on the screen, and the step-back was that much easier for Kemba. Long story short, you know a play was great when I'm offering a mild complement to Calhoun, although I think he looked up that final play on a stolen laptop hidden under his chair.

On to St.Johns-SU...

I watched the first half, which was great, and then followed the scoreboard on my laptop during class. (Don't tell Professor Basu!) Even following the score was riveting, and I could just sense it was an amazing game. I went back and watched the second half when I got home. Yup. Classic Big East.

So you know how good Fab is suddenly playing. And Triche, of course, was massive. I think the larger story is that Syracuse is playing really, really good basketball right now. After those annual early and mid-season losses, I don't always buy into the old line, "that loss will be good for us." But in retrospect, the flow of this season really played into our hands. As Villanova's season spirals out of control, it's pretty easy to think, "that could have been us." Nova peaked while the Orange bottomed out. Now Nova bottomed out and has no time to right the ship.

Meawhile SU is better than ever. Let's start with the Freshmen. Speaking of them, Baye Moussa Keita, literally translated, means "remember when I was the best Freshman on the team?" Also, remember when CJ Fair was the best Freshman on the team? As of today, it's 1. Melo, 2. Dion, 3. CJ, and 4. Keita. Would you be surprised if Dion had a big game today? Or CJ? I wouldn't. Dion has been quietly electric off the bench. He can shoot. He can drive. I'm extremely excited about him.

Triche's improvement this season is critical for one important reason. We don't need him to have a great game on offense every night, but when he goes off Scoop doesn't need to. Against the best teams, we need one or the other to be great, but not both.

Triche, along with the rest of the vets - Ricky, Scoop, KJ - look so comfortable in their roles right now, don't they? They've been playing together for 3 years or more at this point, and it shows. That is a huge advantage. Compare them to St. John's; even though they're led by seniors, two of the Red Storm's three best players were JuCo transfers. Plus, their coach is brand new. I would say that SU's experience trumps its poor team free throw shooting in late games. And by the way, Syracuse has its best cooler [Bill Simmons' term for a clutch late game free throw shooter] in Triche since Gerry. Why wasn't the end of the game as close as the rest of the game? SU's experienced talent beat out St. John's guts. I'll say it again - I'm not taking St. John's deep in my bracket.

And now, tonight's game...

If you haven't heard, ESPN U is showing a shortened version of 6OT from 1:00-3:00. Then ESPN Classic is showing the game in its entirety from 3:00-7:00. I've got history reading to do, but you can be sure I'll have the game on in the background all day.

Here are the stakes for tonight's game:
  • Building the Big East Tournament's Mystique: Casual college basketball fans will be following this game tonight. If it is as solid as the games were yesterday, it will continue to shape the legend of this tournament. If it is classic, it will take the tournament's status to another level.
  • Building the UConn-SU rivalry's status: This rivalry is a strange one, because everyone knows that for SU, Georgetown is their traditional rival. Yet everyone also knows UConn-SU has been a better rivalry over the last decade. Unless Georgetown hoops falls back into something like the Craig Esherick Era doldrums, they will remain rival #1 to the Orange. UConn will be #2. But consider this...how awesome is it that Syracuse has had two legitimate super-serious rivals for over 15 years? What other consistently great program can make that claim? Not Duke, since they stopped playing Kentucky, and since Maryland fell off the map. Not UNC. Not Kansas. Not UCLA. Kentucky-Louisville is probably the best non-conference rivalry today, but neither team has a transcendent conference rival, do they?
  • UConn's momentum: They'll be tired if they make the finals of the Big East, and they'll probably lose to the Irish, but with a win over the Orange the Huskies will have earned a high seed in the tourney. Plus, they will have set themselves up for comments like "They'll go as far as Kemba can take us" and "Kemba Walker might be the best player in the tournament" leading into the NCAAs.
  • SU's momentum: Hang on...we're going to be using block capitals a BUNCH of times in this paragraph. Make no mistake, this is a MUCH better match-up for the Orange than that impossible Pitt defense. Syracuse is the better team; they're taller, more athletic, and more talented. The Orange SHOULD win. Still, excuse me while I gird my loins: the St. John's win probably sealed a 3-seed for the Orange, and if Syracuse plays well and loses, they'll still take a lot of confidence into the tournament. There's not much to lose tonight. Having said that, a Syracuse win DEFINITELY locks up a 3-seed, gets people talking about SU as a dark horse in the tournament, and gives the Orange even MORE confidence. Plus, they'll be the favorites in the finals against whoever emerges. (Trust me, Notre Dame fans. The bookies will pick SU in the Garden against little Hansbrough.) Have I mentioned how much I LOVE Big East titles?
I'm excited.

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Monday, March 07, 2011

Big East Tournament Preview

Pre S. (Like a P.S. but before the body of the post, not after.) I thought this "Who should I root for" flow chart on Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician was hilarious. My favorite part ws the "Irish Catholic?"-No, "Roman Catholic"-No, "Some other weird Catholic?"-Yes arrows that lead to Providence. Awesome. Also awesome is Nunes-Magician blogger Sean Keely, who put a link to the Sports Sauna on his "Cuse Connections" list. That means I am now 2 clicks away from espn.com, since Nunes-Magician is on ESPN's college basketball blog roll! Great stuff. On the days when I don't post, read Nunes-Magician.

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I love conference championship week. It's my fourth favorite week of the college basketball calendar, after 1.) The opening weekend of the NCAAs, 2.) NCAA Championship weekend, and 3.) NCAA regionals weekend. Actually, when I really stop to think about it, there have been years when I've had more fun watching conference championships than that year's Final Four.

Sports Sauna Emeritus Chris asked me this a couple weeks ago. At the beginning of the year you have two options. 1.)You could win the Big East Tournament but lose in the Sweet 16. 2.) You could play out the season and see what happens. I said 2, but that I even had to think about it shows how much I care about the Big East tourney. (Chris said 1, by the way.) Throw them all out there and play to win the game, Jim! And honestly, if you gave me that same choice today, I'd take 1. This isn't a national championship-caliber SU team.

Who is going to win the Big East? I don't know. But I'm going to give you predictions anyway, because that's what we do, and by we I mean bloggers (not historians). But first let's look at the big picture. Bubble watchers and bracketologists will know that the Big East has locked up 10 bids. The last remaining question mark is Marquette. (In fact, we should call them Question Marquette until Selection Sunday.) Question Marquette has some nice wins, but their season finale defeat at suddenly lukewarm Seton Hall was typical of their season: some nice wins, some eyebrow-raising losses. Still, even if they merely beat Providence in the opening round tomorrow, they should be in. The Big East will have 11 bids.

That's amazing, but Question Marquette's fate isn't particularly evocative. What is fascinating is the way those 10 teams that are locks for the tourney can be split into two distinct groups:

The Mila Kunis "Looking Fabulous" Group
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Louisville
Cincinnati

The Nicole Kidman "Past Peak" Group
St. John's
Georgetown
Connecticut
Villanova

Oh! I almost forgot! There is a third group:

The James Franco Group
West Virginia

Marshon Brooks and Providence is the poor man's Justin Timberlake to West Virginia's James Franco. I would much rather watch Brooks play a game in the tourney, even if the Friars got knocked out immediately then see Bob Huggins and Co. go one- or two-and-out from the 5-seed Lunardi currently has them projected for. (By the way, I came up with the "Timberlake should have hosted instead of Franco" idea before I listened to Dan Silver suggest the same thing on the BS Report, but I did love his idea of just giving Timberlake the hosting gig for 20 years, Bob Hope style.)

But I digress. Most of those teams are self-explanatory. Putting St. John's in the Kidman group might be a bit harsh, but that Seton Hall loss earlier this week was very telling. The Red Storm were playing for the double-bye, and they couldn't get it done against an inferior team. Steve Lavin is going to rebuild the Red Storm, but they're not for real just yet.

That brings me to my larger point; besides pulling for Syracuse, I'm very interested to see which of the Kunis group keeps the momentum riding, and which of the Kidmans can get things turned around. Of course, I'm not saying that teams always carry momentum into the tournament, or that teams can't turn their momentum around when they get into the tournament. But if you're an SU fan, you'll feel much worse about the Orange's chances if they get upset in their first Big East game. They've looked great, and we want them to keep looking great. The same is true for the rest of the Kunis teams, while the Kidmans want to shake off that botox and rediscover their mojo. That's what I'll be watching for this week.

What do I think will happen in every game? Glad you asked! (Here's the bracket, by the way.)

First Round
9. UConn over 16. DePaul
12. Seton Hall over 13. Rutgers
10. Villanova over 15. South Florida
14. Providence over 11. Question Marquette

Comments: The Friars get the upset in an otherwise quiet first round, keeping Question Marquette a question mark heading into Selection Sunday

Second Round
8. Georgetown over 9. UConn - both teams have lost 4 of their last 5, but I think Kemba Walker's red hot start screwed up UConn's identity in the long term. Chris Wright probably won't be back yet for the Hoyas, which seems like a critical problem for this match-up, but my gut tells me JT-III will pull this out. And that is despite knowing the Hoyas scored 46 points in the game Wright got hurt in against Cincy, and 51 and 47 in the two games after that (SU, @ Cincy).

12. Seton Hall over 5. St. John's - The SU-St. John's 3rd round matchup is too good to be true. Jeremy Hazell is the story of the opening rounds.

10. Villanova over 7. Cincinnati - The Wildcats are the Kidman team that turns things around. They're not this bad, and their 4-game slide has come against 3 of the Kunis teams plus St. John's.

14. Providence over 6. West Virginia - Seriously, can we make this a play-in game for the NCAAs?

Third Round
1. Pittsburgh over 8. Georgetown - Maybe I've had my head buried too deeply in the books, but I feel like Pittsburgh hasn't gotten enough credit this season. I'm not going to say they're the team to beat in the NCAAs, but I feel like this wide-open field will lead to Jamie Dixon's deepest run yet.

4. Syracuse over 12. Seton Hall - I'm a bit confused about how the Big East scheduling works...why didn't the Orange didn't play the Pirates this year?

10. Villanova over 2. Notre Dame - I wish I could see a poll of all non-Notre Dame and non-SU fans asking, who would you rather have on your team - Ben Hansbrough or Ricky Jackson? I can't even think about that question rationally, which is part of the reason I don't take the Irish seriously.

3. Louisville over 14. Providence - The Marshon Brooks dream dies.

Semi-finals
1. Pittsburgh over 4. Syracuse - I'd like to hire Leonardo DiCaprio to place the idea in my brain that the Orange can beat Dixon's man-to-man, because I just can't believe it at this point.

10. Villanova over 3. Louisville - Impressive job by Pitino this year. Anytime you can finish 3rd in the best conference in the country with Kyle Kuric as your 2nd best scorer, you deserve to win Coach of the Year.

Finals
1. Pittsburgh over 10. Villanova - The best team takes the title.

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Monday, February 28, 2011

Who the Orange Should Root for this Week

With one less game to play than the three teams Syracuse could pass in the standings, SU has a decent shot at moving into the top four in the Big East and grabbing the coveted double-bye in the Big East tournament. (That's a double-bye as in sitting out the first two rounds, not to be confused with the double-bye-pass procedure for Orange fans Derrick Coleman is hawking on TV ads for Upstate Hospital - also known as a "Heart Scoop.")

But first, don't forget last year's Big East tournament, when 3 of the 4 double-bye teams lost their first game, including 1-seed SU to 8-seed Georgetown and 2-seed Pitt to 7-seed Notre Dame. That said, it was the surviving 3-seed, West Virginia, who ended up taking the championship. I don't have the statistical evidence on hand, but I'm pretty sure it's easier to win 3 games in a row than 4 games in a row.

Here's how the final week of the regular season looks from SU's perspective:

Syracuse - SU's home finale is against the worst team in the Big East, DePaul. Syracuse is playing too well, and Boeheim is too paranoid to let the Orange get caught by surprise. The script says its a 12-6 finish in conference.

Pittsburgh - At 13-3, Syracuse can't catch them. The Panthers will ice the regular season championship Wednesday at USF before their regular season finale home against tailspinin' Villanova.

Notre Dame - Unfortunately, Syracuse needs a good game from that same Villanova team. 12-4 Notre Dame hosts the Wildcats before finishing the season at UConn. Those are two very losable games, and, if the Irish do lose both, Syracuse holds the tie-break thanks to their win over Notre Dame back in January.

Louisville - SU doesn't have the tie-break on the Cardinals, so their home OT win over Pitt on Sunday really hurt Syracuse's chances. They would need to lose out against Providence at home and at West Virginia. The Friars have lost six straight despite Marshon Brooks playing out of his gourd. At the very least, they'll give Louisville a tough game. A Providence upset would put me in the confusing position of rooting for Bobby Huggins on Saturday. (Speaking of the Friars, I would rather see a player like Brooks in the tournament then a crappy West Virginia team. I wish the committee factored in individual entertainment value. Ironically, Brooks is exactly the kind of player West Virginia lacks this year.)

St. John's - Again, thanks to a January win, the Orange have the tie-break over the 11-5 Red Storm. Unfortunately, St. John's will coast to the finish with games at Seton Hall and home against USF. USF is crap, and I can't think of any good teams Seton Hall has beaten this year, can you? What? What's that? I'm sorry, I can't hear you with these forks jabbed in my ears!!

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So, the best bet for the Orange is probably a 2-game losing streak by the Irish. Failing that, St. John's would need one slip up. Louisville would need two.

If Syracuse stays at the 5-seed, they'll get the winner of the first round's 12-13 game. History demands that I remind you Connecticut LOST as the 12-seed last year. Hee hee hee... The last time Boeheim sniffed a "12-seed" it was in his stool after eating a bag of sunflower seeds! (Also, 2006 when 12-seed Texas A&M knocked out the Orange in the first round of the NCAAs...but that's not as funny.)

So even if Syracuse doesn't move into the top-4, they'll still be in a good position. As bubble watchers know, the drop from 11th to 12th is sharp in the Big East. Right now 9-7 Marquette is 11th, 5-11 Seton Hall is 12th, and 4-12 Rutgers is 13th.

Bottom line - for a week at least, and hopefully throughout the DePaul finale, Orange fans can relax and enjoy other teams going through early March Madness.

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Thursday, March 08, 2007

Half-time: SU v. ND

Halftime of the Notre Dame game and you know what? For the first time all season long, I'm content with this team.

First of all, up by three against the #16 team in the country in the post-season...AND our best scorer has one point. Anyone would take that.

But it's more than just this game that I'm content about. I went to one game while I was home over Christmas, against lowly St. Bonaventure (no offense Brian). We beat them, but the way that we beat them was just SO unconvincing. Even in victory, we were not a good team.

It took us a while: even a month ago I was still feeling crummy about this team. But since then, Jimmy's got them into shape. The only thing I feel is completely wrong with this team is an injury: Roberts's knee. Here's what's right:

Watkins: right now he's got 6 points and 4 boards, and he's playing great defense. At the end of his career, we have to be pretty pleased with what he's given Syracuse. The best Orange center since Etan Thomas.

Roberts: How much will we miss his energy on the court? The enduring image in my mind will be him pointing in one direction while the ref points in the other. I feel like that happens every other game. Right now he's gutting out 6 points and 10(!) boards.

Rautins: See Fyall yesterday. But also see that pass he whipped inside to one of the big guys in this game? (Jay Bilas compared it to Moses Malone.) And see that full-court pass he made to Watkins to punish Notre Dame for their botched fast break? Apparently, those are the types of plays his dad made. We appreciate his three point shooting now, but we're only starting to appreciate his all-around play. Exciting!

Devendorf: Finally, FINALLY settling down at the point. Right now I love the way he's prioritizing his game: 1st get teammates involved, 2nd drive to the hoop, 3rd shoot the three. Perfect, Eric. PERFECT. Keep it right there. That's FINE.

Harris: Leading Syracuse with 9 points right now. Early in the season he gave us a few tastes of his brilliance, but that was against lesser opponents. Now we're getting those same tastes against quality teams. I'm excited. Even if it does mean people will do a double-take when I introduce myself around Syracuse from now on.

Wright: At the very least, he's looked good against Notre Dame. Arguably the biggest play of the first half was Russell Carter's 3rd foul, caused by Wright's speed and aggressiveness on the break. That's the intelligent use of speed we need to see more of from him, in the 1+ year he has left.

Nichols: To be fair to Fyall, who is picking the last bit of meat off the crow on his plate right now, no one really saw this season coming from Nichols. And coming into the year, Roberts was supposed to be the go to guy. And maybe that's the reason why it took so long for this team to click. But they're clicking now.

And I'm content. Even if we lose this game to the Irish and get bounced in the first round of the NCAA, at least we'll go down playing our very best. It's nice to feel good about the Orange.

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Sunday, March 04, 2007

Big East draw

Interesting draw for the Orange in the Big East tournament.

First they'll face UConn. The Hukies season is probably my favorite storyline of the 2006-07 season. They're absolutely atrocious: 6-10 in the Big East after a putrid non-conference schedule. Those are the kind of seasons Jim Boeheim never has. The only thing that could make me happier is (as always) if during a game, while he was jumping up and down and screaming at the refs, a laptop fell out of Jim Calhoun's sports coat. I imagine Calhoun freezing as the game comes to halt and the arena goes dead quiet...then erupting into confused chaos as Calhoun flees the stadium.

Still, there are a couple other teams I would rather be playing. I can bash Calhoun until his last illegally recruited blue chipper gets arrested, but that won't change the fact that he plans a good game whenever he faces Syracuse. Luckily, the only team that the Huskies beat this season that finished above them in the standings was Syracuse exactly one month ago. And that was when the Huskies were still on the bubble. Remember: these guys were favored to win the NCAAs a year ago, but bombed out against George Mason largely because of poor chemistry. Somehow I don't think their motivation will be enough to beat Syracuse.

And let me just say here that I think the Orange are playing their best basketball all season. I even think they outplayed Villanova, only losing because of Villanova's ridiculous free throw shooting (and ridiculously high amount of FTs taken). How good are we playing? Sweet sixteen good, I'd say. They just have to TCB* against UConn.

If they do, they'll face Notre Dame. This season's blowout notwithstanding, Syracuse has owned the Irish in recent years. Plus, rule #2 of conference college basketball applies:
1.) It's nearly impossible to beat a team three times in a season, no matter how bad they are and how bad you are.
2.) If you embarass a solid team in the first meeting, expect to get your comeuppance in the second.

Homer: Oh, Lisa, you saved me! And after all the bad things I said about you.
Lisa: What bad things? Why?
Homer: Oh, Lisa, the important thing is I didn't get my comeuppance, and I never will.
Lisa: (notices the restauranteurs massing) Uh...Dad?
Homer: I know honey. The important thing is...run!
(fade to credits)
Homer: Oooh. Finally getting my comeuppance.

If they dispatch the Irish, Syracuse will likely get Georgetown. Of course, I recently discussed my favorable attitudes towards the Orange's chances against the Hoyas in this space.

After that is the finals. It would be remarkable, but if Syracuse does get that far, win or lose, they'll be considered one of the hottest teams in the country going into the tournament. Many will point to last year's early exit as evidence for suspecting another first round loss for the Orange. But last year Syracuse's most important player was injured. Terrance Roberts might have to have his leg amputated if he plays four straight days, but Syracuse has already learned how to win without him. So I pooh-pooh anyone who suggests the Orange might be better if they don't play four games in a row. The most important thing is to get as high a seed as possible, and the farther Syracuse goes, the better. I like their chances to go far.

Prediction: I can't ignore my own rationale. Syracuse loses by 11 to Pittsburgh in the finals.



*Take care of business.

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