Big East Tournament Preview

Pre S. (Like a P.S. but before the body of the post, not after.) I thought this "Who should I root for" flow chart on Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician was hilarious. My favorite part ws the "Irish Catholic?"-No, "Roman Catholic"-No, "Some other weird Catholic?"-Yes arrows that lead to Providence. Awesome. Also awesome is Nunes-Magician blogger Sean Keely, who put a link to the Sports Sauna on his "Cuse Connections" list. That means I am now 2 clicks away from espn.com, since Nunes-Magician is on ESPN's college basketball blog roll! Great stuff. On the days when I don't post, read Nunes-Magician.

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I love conference championship week. It's my fourth favorite week of the college basketball calendar, after 1.) The opening weekend of the NCAAs, 2.) NCAA Championship weekend, and 3.) NCAA regionals weekend. Actually, when I really stop to think about it, there have been years when I've had more fun watching conference championships than that year's Final Four.

Sports Sauna Emeritus Chris asked me this a couple weeks ago. At the beginning of the year you have two options. 1.)You could win the Big East Tournament but lose in the Sweet 16. 2.) You could play out the season and see what happens. I said 2, but that I even had to think about it shows how much I care about the Big East tourney. (Chris said 1, by the way.) Throw them all out there and play to win the game, Jim! And honestly, if you gave me that same choice today, I'd take 1. This isn't a national championship-caliber SU team.

Who is going to win the Big East? I don't know. But I'm going to give you predictions anyway, because that's what we do, and by we I mean bloggers (not historians). But first let's look at the big picture. Bubble watchers and bracketologists will know that the Big East has locked up 10 bids. The last remaining question mark is Marquette. (In fact, we should call them Question Marquette until Selection Sunday.) Question Marquette has some nice wins, but their season finale defeat at suddenly lukewarm Seton Hall was typical of their season: some nice wins, some eyebrow-raising losses. Still, even if they merely beat Providence in the opening round tomorrow, they should be in. The Big East will have 11 bids.

That's amazing, but Question Marquette's fate isn't particularly evocative. What is fascinating is the way those 10 teams that are locks for the tourney can be split into two distinct groups:

The Mila Kunis "Looking Fabulous" Group
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Louisville
Cincinnati

The Nicole Kidman "Past Peak" Group
St. John's
Georgetown
Connecticut
Villanova

Oh! I almost forgot! There is a third group:

The James Franco Group
West Virginia

Marshon Brooks and Providence is the poor man's Justin Timberlake to West Virginia's James Franco. I would much rather watch Brooks play a game in the tourney, even if the Friars got knocked out immediately then see Bob Huggins and Co. go one- or two-and-out from the 5-seed Lunardi currently has them projected for. (By the way, I came up with the "Timberlake should have hosted instead of Franco" idea before I listened to Dan Silver suggest the same thing on the BS Report, but I did love his idea of just giving Timberlake the hosting gig for 20 years, Bob Hope style.)

But I digress. Most of those teams are self-explanatory. Putting St. John's in the Kidman group might be a bit harsh, but that Seton Hall loss earlier this week was very telling. The Red Storm were playing for the double-bye, and they couldn't get it done against an inferior team. Steve Lavin is going to rebuild the Red Storm, but they're not for real just yet.

That brings me to my larger point; besides pulling for Syracuse, I'm very interested to see which of the Kunis group keeps the momentum riding, and which of the Kidmans can get things turned around. Of course, I'm not saying that teams always carry momentum into the tournament, or that teams can't turn their momentum around when they get into the tournament. But if you're an SU fan, you'll feel much worse about the Orange's chances if they get upset in their first Big East game. They've looked great, and we want them to keep looking great. The same is true for the rest of the Kunis teams, while the Kidmans want to shake off that botox and rediscover their mojo. That's what I'll be watching for this week.

What do I think will happen in every game? Glad you asked! (Here's the bracket, by the way.)

First Round
9. UConn over 16. DePaul
12. Seton Hall over 13. Rutgers
10. Villanova over 15. South Florida
14. Providence over 11. Question Marquette

Comments: The Friars get the upset in an otherwise quiet first round, keeping Question Marquette a question mark heading into Selection Sunday

Second Round
8. Georgetown over 9. UConn - both teams have lost 4 of their last 5, but I think Kemba Walker's red hot start screwed up UConn's identity in the long term. Chris Wright probably won't be back yet for the Hoyas, which seems like a critical problem for this match-up, but my gut tells me JT-III will pull this out. And that is despite knowing the Hoyas scored 46 points in the game Wright got hurt in against Cincy, and 51 and 47 in the two games after that (SU, @ Cincy).

12. Seton Hall over 5. St. John's - The SU-St. John's 3rd round matchup is too good to be true. Jeremy Hazell is the story of the opening rounds.

10. Villanova over 7. Cincinnati - The Wildcats are the Kidman team that turns things around. They're not this bad, and their 4-game slide has come against 3 of the Kunis teams plus St. John's.

14. Providence over 6. West Virginia - Seriously, can we make this a play-in game for the NCAAs?

Third Round
1. Pittsburgh over 8. Georgetown - Maybe I've had my head buried too deeply in the books, but I feel like Pittsburgh hasn't gotten enough credit this season. I'm not going to say they're the team to beat in the NCAAs, but I feel like this wide-open field will lead to Jamie Dixon's deepest run yet.

4. Syracuse over 12. Seton Hall - I'm a bit confused about how the Big East scheduling works...why didn't the Orange didn't play the Pirates this year?

10. Villanova over 2. Notre Dame - I wish I could see a poll of all non-Notre Dame and non-SU fans asking, who would you rather have on your team - Ben Hansbrough or Ricky Jackson? I can't even think about that question rationally, which is part of the reason I don't take the Irish seriously.

3. Louisville over 14. Providence - The Marshon Brooks dream dies.

Semi-finals
1. Pittsburgh over 4. Syracuse - I'd like to hire Leonardo DiCaprio to place the idea in my brain that the Orange can beat Dixon's man-to-man, because I just can't believe it at this point.

10. Villanova over 3. Louisville - Impressive job by Pitino this year. Anytime you can finish 3rd in the best conference in the country with Kyle Kuric as your 2nd best scorer, you deserve to win Coach of the Year.

Finals
1. Pittsburgh over 10. Villanova - The best team takes the title.

"This is it. Don't get scared now!" - Big East Preview

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! I hope you all watched A Christmas Story at least once this season. In our house, it's a Christmas Eve tradition.

The title quote of this post is from another family-favorite Christmas movie: Home Alone. Unlike timeless classics like A Christmas Story and It's a Wonderful Life, Home Alone hasn't had the same cultural resonance. But personally, it's a favorite and another yearly must-view. No matter how old I get, there is so much to appreciate. From the slapstick humor to the quotability to the unparalleled performances of Joe Pesci and Daniel Stern.

(Seriously, for a very cheesy kid flick, they were on their games. Pesci was just scary enough to frighten child-viewers, but not so scary he'd give nightmares. Stern was perfectly cast, and played his Kramer-before-Seinfeld-exploded character off of Pesci's sinister performance. Plus, Daniel Stern is one of the most underrated actors of the last century. See: Rookie of the Year.)

When it came out in 1990 it was an overnight sensation, launching the film careers of most of the Caulkin family. (Kieran even had a small role as Fuller, Kevin McCallister's pepsi-guzzling, bed-wetting cousin.) Did director Chris Columbus and writer John Hughes really think Home Alone would be one of their best selling films of all-time? Look at these ridiculous numbers:

• $285 million box office (domestic + foreign)
• The #1 film of 1990.
  
• The 37th best-grossing film of all-time (adjusted for inflation).
• The 14th best PG film of all-time.
  
• 12 consecutive weekends at #1 is fourth most all-time, behind Titanic, Beverly Hills Cop, and Tootsie.

Seriously, did Columbus and Hughes expect that? Did it come out of nowhere? Someone should write a dissertation on Home Alone. Failing that, I'll just speculate. My guess is, with the film in the can for $18 million, the filmmakers suspected they had something really good, but they couldn't have been sure. Is it going to be one of the biggest films of the year? Quite possibly. Is it going to be the biggest film of the year? Probably not. Is it going to bomb? There's a chance.

* * *

Hours before Syracuse opens it's Big East slate against Providence, that's exactly how I feel about this Orange team. There is a very good chance it is one of the top 10 or 15 teams in the country. It might be worse. It might even be much worse. And, after the opening weekend (non-conference schedule), I'm starting to believe there is a chance it could be the best. These last four opponents were pretty weak, of course. But Syracuse finally started to put up more points. They did it with outstanding transition offense. With the athletes on the court and the turnover-forcing defense, SU's transition scoring will be the difference this season.

In honor of my second favorite Christmas movie, here are SU's Big East opponents broken down by the Home Alone quotation that best corresponds. My predicted result is also noted.

[By the way, I can pretty much quote this whole movie as it's playing, but it's a little tricky noting the discrepancies between the final result and the screenplay I found online. I've actually caught a couple changes, but I'm sorry if I misquote any of these scenes. Apologies especially to the performers, who may or may not be reading this.]

Dec 28 Providence (W)

Harry - "I think we're getting scared by a kindergartener!"

You don't have to wait until 2011. Tonight's home game against 11-2 Providence will reveal a lot about whether the Orange are for real. If they are, this should be a blowout. If it's close, it will be time to revise expectations.

Jan 1 Notre Dame (W)

Check-out Woman - "Are you here all by yourself?"
Kevin - "Ma'am, I'm 8-years-old. You think I would be here...alone? I don't think so!"

The Irish have put up some impressive stats so far this year. Nationally, they're 16th in points-per-game, 8th in rebounding, and 9th in assists. But they think they're going to come into the dome in between home games against the Hoyas and the Huskies and beat the Orange? I don't think so!

Jan 8 @Seton Hall (W), Jan 12 @St. John's (W)

Marv - "He's a kid. Kid's are stupid."

Harry and Marv's biggest mistake? Bad game management! After their initial failure at the kitchen door, they split up, each fending for himself in Kevin's house of horrors. Once they reunite, they fail to work together as a team, blindly stumbling into more and more traps. Luckily, Boeheim is much smarter. Why do you think SU is always strong in the 2nd half? He'll make mincemeat of these early road games.

Jan 15 Cincinnati (W)

Kevin - "You guys give up yet? Or are you thirsty for more?"

Cincy gets crushed in the dome just before the Big East schedule starts to really kick in.

Jan 17 @Pitt (L)

Buzz - "Kevin! What did you do to my room?"

Kevin waltzed into Buzz's room thinking he could take anything he wanted. Alas, Buzz's cry at the end of the film suggests Kevin is going to receive a beating for his impudence. This could very well be a battle between undefeated teams. Alas, Pittsburgh has always been a tough place for the Orange to play.

Jan 22 Villanova (W), February 9 Georgetown (L)

Kevin - "This is my house. I have to defend it."

Other than Seton Hall, these are the two teams Syracuse plays a home-and-home with this season. It's so important to hold serve in these games, but easier said then done.

Jan 25 Seton Hall (W), Feb 19 Rutgers (W), Mar 5 DePaul (W)

Johnny - "Hey, I tell you what I'm going to do, snakes. I'm gonna give you to the count of ten to git your ugly no good yellow keister off my property before I pump your guts full of lead."
Snakes - "All right, Johnny. I'm sorry. I'm going."
Johnny - "One ... two ... ten!"
[Guns down Snakes]
Johnny - "Keep the change ya filthy animal!"

Syracuse is going to massacre these guys in the dome. Rutgers is actually 9-2 right now, but unless they get really hot from outside they won't be able to score against the Orange. They're very small and will have trouble rebounding or getting much offense in the paint.

Feb 12 @Louisville (L)

Mrs. McCallister - "KEVIN!!"

They turned off the coffee. They locked the doors. They set the timers on the lights... But the McCallisters forgot their youngest son. I hope the Orange don't forget how Louisville manhandled them in two meetings last season, but I'm afraid they will.

Jan 29 @Marquette (L)

Harry - "What happened to the kid?"
Marv - "Maybe he committed suicide."

Watch out! It's a trap! Marquette's only losses so far have come against Duke (lost by 5), Gonzaga (3), and Wisconsin (5). They'll have played five ranked Big East teams by the time they face Syracuse, and may be desperate for a key win. Meanwhile, Syracuse could be caught looking ahead to the UConn game. BOOM! Paint can to the head.

Feb 2 @UConn (W)

Buzz - "You ever heard of the South Bend Shovel Slayer?"

The Old Man looked pretty scary, but we found out he was just a lonely old guy with a heart of gold. UConn's 15-point defeat against Pittsburgh last night might suggest the Huskies aren't as tough as their early success implied.

Feb 5 @USF (W)

Kevin - [sadly] "I made my family disappear."
[Thinks back to family saying bad things about him]
Megan - "Kevin, you're completely helpless!"
Buzz - "Kevin, I'm going to feed you to my tarantula."
Jeff - "Kevin, you are such a disease!"
Mom - "There are 15 people in this house and you're the only one who has to make trouble."
Uncle Frank - "Look what you did, you little jerk!"
Kevin - [gleefully] "I made my family disappear!"

I love Uncle Frank's over-the-top reaction to the mess in the kitchen. Classic John Hughes! Actually, Home Alone is the ultimate Hughes family. After dominating the 1980s with films about teenagers figuring out their own problems amidst ineffective or absent parents, Hughes puts an even younger child in a totally parent-less situation against two violent criminals!

SU makes USF disappear, by the way.

Feb 14 West Virginia (W)

Linnie McCallister - "Kevin, you're what the French call 'les incompentents.'"

Will this be the year that Coach Bobbie Huggins remembers that Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone and game plans accordingly? He doesn't have Da'Sean Butler around anymore to cover up his ineptitude.

Feb 21 @Villanova (L), Feb 26 @Georgetown (L)

Marv - "What are we gonna do to him, Harry?"
Harry - "We'll do exactly what he did to us: we're gonna burn his head with a blowtorch!"
Marv - "And smash his face with an iron!"
Harry - "How about we slap him in the face with a paint can?"
Marv - "Or shove a nail through his foot!"
Harry - "First thing I'm gonna do is to bite off every one of these little fingers, one at a time..."

The scariest part of the season gets the scariest part of the movie. I mean, Harry literally has Kevin's finger in his mouth when the Old Man bashes him from behind! If Kevin doesn't reach out to his neighbor earlier in the film, this movie could have taken a VERY dark turn! Not that it isn't a dark film; I'm probably not the first person to point out the disturbing similarities between Kevin McCallister and the psychopath from Saw.

These games could be two crucial late season resume-builders for a 1-seed bid. Can we win two straight road games against potentially top ten teams? Can we win one? The one thing we have going for us is experience. Speaking of which, it just goes to show you how college basketball has changed in the last 20 years that despite losing three starters in two consecutive seasons, Syracuse is considered "experienced" in both of them.


Final record: 12-6 in conference, 25-6 overall

The Big East Regular Season: It all comes down to this...and this...and this...

I saw Avatar-3D tonight. Count me among the "This Movie Changes Film Making" bandwagoners; the digital effects were forgettable... meaning I forgot I was watching digital effects because they were so good. Great story with a thinly-veiled post-9/11, anti-imperialism message. The 2 hours and 40 minutes rolled by twice as fast as 2012 did when I saw it the other week. Like all great sci fi/fantasy epics, you could sense it hurtling towards the final cataclysm: the Battle of the Tree of Souls. Indeed, it was right there with some of the great film battle scenes. While we're here, let's rank 'em...

5. Battle of Stirling (Braveheart) - Loses points for coming in the middle of the movie, but this was the first uber-violent battle scene my innocent eyes ever beheld.

4. Battle of the Tree of Souls (Avatar) - The battle begins with the general of the humans crying, "Our only security is in a preemptive strike!... We've got to fight terror with terror!" In other words, the humans are pure evil in this movie!

3. Battle of the 2nd Death Star/Endor (Star Wars: Return of the Jedi) - Star Wars Episodes I and II actually had larger climactic battles, but since the movies weren't as good, I'm giving it to the ultimate victory over the Dark Side. Still, I did like the "Order 66" scene in Episode III; a climactic battle scene that doesn't end happily.

2. Battle of Minas Tirith (LOTR: Return of the King) - Everything you could possible want in a battle scene...although I always felt the whole unleashing of the unstoppable army of death on the side of the good guys was a little unsatisfying.

1. Battle of Helm's Deep (LOTR:Two Towers) - I hadn't read the books, and since the Ring wasn't in Helm's Deep, I was partly convinced the battle was going to be lost by the good guys. I loved the addition (not in the novel) of the Elves coming to die alongside mortal men. And, of course, the deus ex machina-ish appearance of Gandalf and the Rohirrim was delightful.


The thing about these battles is you're never sure who's going to survive them. Almost any of the characters you've come to love over the last 2 hours might fall victim to the film's need for an emotional punch in the gut that shows the audience the battle isn't going well.

(Now let's MAGICALLY transition to college basketball.)

My feelings about Syracuse heading into the Big East Basketball regular season are similar. At any moment SU could take that punch in the gut. It might come from the obvious villain, or it might be a stray arrow that catches us out of nowhere.

So, I was worried about the Seton Hall game coming in... and they're in last place in the conference as of this moment! Now that it's over, I'm extremely relieved we stuck the sword in Jeremy Hazell, and, with Seton Hall done from our schedule, he won't be getting off any surprise kill shots when we least expect it.

The worst part of the Big East season is, unlike all of those epic movies, there is no guarantee the good guys will prevail in the end. There are a lot of things that could derail SU in the Big East season and lead to an unhappy ending:

• Onuaku's knees could go - Frankly, somewhere in the last few games I started to like Rick Jackson even more than A-O in the center of the zone on defense. But SU's pair of big men is virtually incomparable in the NCAAs.
• Rautins' body could shatter - He's made of glass, as we all know. I hate the sound of the dome when he takes an extra long time to peel himself off the floor.
• Triche/Jardine could fail to develop - As I've said before in this space, the Orange will only go as far as their PGs take them. At this moment, do you trust either of these two bringing the ball up with a 4-point lead in a tournament game? How about with a 4-point lead in ANY Big East game? Not yet. Watch the PGs carefully.
• The doldrums could strike - It will happen. SU will hit a bad stretch. Everything I'm reading suggests this is a tight-knit team that genuinely gets along. They're great at defense and loaded with offensive weapons. It's hard to imagine the team staying cold. But every Big East team (except West Virginia, unless someone told Huggins we play a 2-3 zone) knows how to attack Jim Boeheim. The Orange will lose a few games in conference. How will they handle it?
• Wesley Johnson could start to suck - Just kidding! That's not going to happen. You've probably seen his line against The Hall by now, but let me share it with you again: 20pts, 19reb (8off), 5blk, 50%FG.

That's all I could come up with. Frankly, it's a short list. The best part? 1 or 2 of those things could happen, and SU would still be an NCAA tourney team, and a dangerous one at that. That's the power of having a Wes Johnson.

One arrow dodged, eighteen more to go (not counting the Memphis game). A few will connect. It's gonna be a battle.

Red Hot Louisville

I gotta say, I'm nervous about this Louisville game. And its not because Louisville is red hot. That might actually be a benefit to Syracuse. I think Louisville is due for a loss. I think they might be playing over their head just a tad. I don't think they have as much talent as UConn or Pitt.

I'm nervous because, in the six days since that Pitt loss, the doubts crept back in about this Orange team. I'm pretty much back to where I was before that Notre Dame game. Here's what I said going into that one:

"Frankly, Syracuse is STILL a mystery to me... We'll know more after Saturday. If this team is for real, there is no reason to lose at home to Notre Dame, with the taste of that ugly performance still fresh. If they lose to Notre Dame, they're not awful, but they're not a top 10 team."

Well, substitute "Sunday" for "Saturday" and "Louisville" for "Notre Dame," and that's how I'm feeling right now. That Notre Dame game was fantastic. Best performance of the season. Really, except for a brief, inevitable run from the Irish, Syracuse dominated that 2nd half. But was it Syracuse at it's absolute best, a peak to strive for but rarely to be attained again? Or was it Syracuse clicking, as they should be in most games? We'll know more after Sunday.

Louisville is better than Notre Dame right now. More talented. But SU has to hold serve at home in this conference, if it is to be considered among the elite. Win, and we're at Louisville's level. Lose, and we're at Notre Dame's. With that in mind, here's my Big East power poll, divided into the key tiers. Note the top-heaviness:

Pitt
UConn
Marquette
Louisville
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Syracuse
Georgetown
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Notre Dame
West Virginia
Villanova
Providence
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Cincinnati
St. John's
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South Florida
Seton Hall
Rutgers
DePaul


I predicted a home defeat against Louisville going into the gauntlet, part 1. Now? I think we win. But I'm not sure...

P.S. Getting to the dome 4 hours before gametime to get good seats with my crazy Freshmen buddies. Busting out the "orange hair" I haven't used since I was an undergrad. Good times.

Georgetown Thought

Georgetown shot 2 of 16 from 3pt range in last night's home setback against West Virginia. Final: 75-58.

In their 88-74 win over Syracuse a week ago, the Hoyas were 12 of 21 for threes. Georgetown is shooting 33.8% for the season. If they just shoot their average in that game, Syracuse wins. I'm just sayin'... Beware Georgetown's 3-point shooting when you're filling out your brackets in March.

Actually, the Big East 3-point shooting standings are interesting. Notre Dame's 3-point shooting has, so far this season, eaten a whole wheel of cheese AND pooped in the refrigerator. I'm not even mad. That's amazing.

3-Point Shooting
		GP	3PM	3PA	PCT
1.	Notre Dame	17	160	387	41.3
2.	Connecticut	18	87	229	38.0
3.	Marquette	18	131	354	37.0
4.	Villanova	18	113	311	36.3
5.	Pittsburgh	18	115	323	35.6
6.	Syracuse	20	126	362	34.8
7.	Louisville	17	131	386	33.9
8.	Georgetown	17	106	314	33.8
9.	Cincinnati	20	143	428	33.4
10.	West Virginia	18	119	359	33.1
11.	Providence	19	134	417	32.1
12.	South Florida	18	97	305	31.8
13.	Seton Hall	18	111	354	31.4
14.	St. John's	18	79	262	30.2
15.	Rutgers	19	93	324	28.7
16.	DePaul	19	98	363	27.0

(Stats provided by STATS LLC and stolen from ESPN.com)