Who's The Guy? - Top Teams in the NCAA

I'm thinking about running with this "The Guy" theme through the season, checking in on top teams with brief posts like this...

I just saw this story by Andy Katz about Marcus Denmon carrying Missouri to a tough win over Vandy. That's enough for me to update my list of The Guys for the top teams in the nation. In my season preview I suggested Missouri, lacking a clear Alpha Dog, was a pretender in the top 10. But now I'm willing to update their The Guy from "???????? or Marcus Denmon" to a firm "Marcus Denmon." I've always liked their coach, Mike Anderson, from his days running his mentor, Nolan Richardson's 40-minutes of hell style at UAB.

Meanwhile, Georgetown had crept into the top 10 mainly on the merit of their OT win over Mizzou. The Guy on the Hoyas is Austin Freeman, a great shooter and scorer who is in his senior year. Against Missouri, Freeman had 31, including 6 of 11 from beyond the arc. But he can cool off, and his 1-for-5 3-pt shooting hurt the Hoyas in their upset loss against Temple this week.

Finally, Tennessee is creeping towards the top 10. They've beaten Villanova and play Pittsburgh tomorrow (Dec 11). Who's The Guy? Freshman power forward Tobias Harris's 16.7 ppg leads the team in scoring. He's shooting a nice 53% from the field, including an impressively efficient 6 of 8 from deep. I haven't seen the Vols play, but if he's got respectable range, he might be The Guy. For now, junior guard Scotty Hopson is scoring almost as many points as Harris. But keep an eye on the freshman; the Vols will be more dangerous as Harris improves.

Georgetown Thought

Georgetown shot 2 of 16 from 3pt range in last night's home setback against West Virginia. Final: 75-58.

In their 88-74 win over Syracuse a week ago, the Hoyas were 12 of 21 for threes. Georgetown is shooting 33.8% for the season. If they just shoot their average in that game, Syracuse wins. I'm just sayin'... Beware Georgetown's 3-point shooting when you're filling out your brackets in March.

Actually, the Big East 3-point shooting standings are interesting. Notre Dame's 3-point shooting has, so far this season, eaten a whole wheel of cheese AND pooped in the refrigerator. I'm not even mad. That's amazing.

3-Point Shooting
		GP	3PM	3PA	PCT
1.	Notre Dame	17	160	387	41.3
2.	Connecticut	18	87	229	38.0
3.	Marquette	18	131	354	37.0
4.	Villanova	18	113	311	36.3
5.	Pittsburgh	18	115	323	35.6
6.	Syracuse	20	126	362	34.8
7.	Louisville	17	131	386	33.9
8.	Georgetown	17	106	314	33.8
9.	Cincinnati	20	143	428	33.4
10.	West Virginia	18	119	359	33.1
11.	Providence	19	134	417	32.1
12.	South Florida	18	97	305	31.8
13.	Seton Hall	18	111	354	31.4
14.	St. John's	18	79	262	30.2
15.	Rutgers	19	93	324	28.7
16.	DePaul	19	98	363	27.0

(Stats provided by STATS LLC and stolen from ESPN.com)

Predaction: Georgetown and Notre Dame

Main thought:
Frankly, Syracuse is STILL a mystery to me. How can you draw any conclusions from a game with such a ridiculous FG% disparity in the first half, and with Rautins playing only 9 minutes? We'll know more after Saturday. If this team is for real, there is no reason to lose at home to Notre Dame, with the taste of that ugly performance still fresh. If they lose to Notre Dame, they're not awful, but they're not a top 10 team.

Further thoughts:

• Must've been wishful thinking picking Georgetown as the disappointing team of the Big East this year in my rankings. Could be SU. Could be ND. Heck, it could be a team playing great at the moment.
• I briefly forgot how good a coach JT-III is. I still think, when SU is playing reasonably well, and Georgetown isn't hitting 57.1% from three, that the SU zone is a rough matchup for his offense. He's 3-4 lifetime against the Orange, but the Hoyas have been ranked much higher than the Orange the last few years.
• I've never been more impressed by a guy who didn't hit a FG until 13 minutes to play. Greg Monroe is a stud. Chris texted me and called him "A taller, better Jeff Green."
• Rick Jackson had a tough game. His 4 turnovers were glaring. But he still ended up with 17 points on 8-10 shooting. Chris saw it first; this guy is going to be a star.
• A-O, meanwhile, was invisible on offense. He has to be more of a presence on that end against these marquee teams. On the other hand, maybe 23 points and 18 rebounds from the Onuaku-Jackson tandem should be enough.
• I loved Devendorf tonight. Nice game from Harris, and outstanding effort as usual. Couldn't ask any more of Flynn.
• Kris Joseph looked like a freshman. Kristof Ongenaet was more of a presence, but the game was out of his league. No Mookie Jones for his 3-ball? OK, coach. Forget I asked.

Saturday, noon, The Dome...

• Look for a big game out of Onuaku. He relishes matching up against the stud centers.
• Pay attention to Rautins's demeanor, if he plays. He was clearly rattled by the injury tonight. He seems to be a psychologically sensitive guy. If he plays, and misses his first couple shots, that could spiral into a longterm slump.
• With the Rautins injury, let's see if Boeheim takes the opportunity to start Devendorf. I wouldn't complain. He is clearly starter-caliber. However, Chris has convinced me that Rautins is better player when he starts. A quick analysis of his best games this year and last year confirms it. Devendorf, on the other hand, is clearly still a force coming off the bench.
• Call me crazy, but I still believe Syracuse is more talented than Georgetown. They're more talented than Notre Dame, too, and will prove it with their best first half of the season. F'ing McAlarney makes it interesting in the second half, but Syracuse never gives up the lead and wins it by 10.