Identity Crisis: SU Season Preview 2010-11

You gotta know who you are.

When it comes to the offensive end of the basketball court at any level, a team needs to know who it is. What are our strengths? What are our weaknesses? And, most importantly, who is The Guy? You don't need a "The Guy" on defense. That end of the court relies on team effort and good coaching, especially the Boeheim 2-3 zone. Sometimes, it almost feels like Boeheim is manipulating that thing with a video game controller. But on offense, there is only so much a coach can do. Ultimately, players make plays, and The Guy has to emerge who is going to make The Play. Furthermore, the coach can't just say, "You're the guy." I mean, he can say it. But that doesn't make it true. The Guy just is, no matter what anybody says.

Take the Heat. Who is The Guy? LeBron? Wade? Nobody knows. In time, LeBron might assert himself, but until then they have an identity crisis. Bill Simmons was the lone voice crying out in the wilderness, foreseeing this problem as soon as James signed with the Heat. It's one of his primary theories about basketball. As he says, who is the Alpha Dog?

The Guy doesn't have to be The Guy every night. He just has to be The Guy that everyone expects to be The Guy every night. There were a lot of SU games last year when Wes Johnson wasn't the best player on the court. But everyone knew he was the best player on the team. If Rautins or A-O or KJ went off, that didn't change the identity of the team, or the fact that Wes was The Guy. Wes wasn't always a particularly assertive scorer, but that worked well because the Orange had so many weapons. He wasn't particularly vocal as a leader, but that worked well with the personality of the team. Wes was just The Guy.

It's hard to explain but you know what I mean, right? And you can also probably guess my problem with this year's Orange - we don't know who The Guy is.

Based on my minimal knowledge of the 2010-11 NCAA season to date, here are The Guys on the AP top 11 teams (These go to 11 because Baylor might be really good):

1. Duke - Nolan Smith (Though Kyrie Irving is ridiculous and might take the torch by the end of the year)
2. Ohio State - Jared Sullinger (5th-year senior Lighty is the leader, but Sullinger is The Guy)
3. Pittsburgh - Ashton Gibbs
4. Kansas - M. Morris (To be precise, Marcus not Markieff)
5. Kansas State - Jacob Pullen
6. Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
7. Connecticut - Kemba Walker
8. Syracuse - ????????
9. Missouri - ???????? or Marcus Denmon
10. Kensucky - Terrance Jones
11. Baylor - LaceDarius Dunn

Kensucky lost its second game today, but Terrance Jones is a Freshman so they'll have some stumbles early. Looking closer, here are the only teams on that list who haven't beaten a ranked team yet:
Kansas (play their 1st ranked opponent, Memphis, on Tuesday)
Syracuse (play their 1st ranked opponent, Mich State, on Tuesday)
Missouri (lost to Georgetown)
Baylor (play their 1st ranked opponent, Gonzaga, on Dec 18)

Right now, I think Missouri and Syracuse are the pretenders on that list. As you probably heard, Boeheim agrees with me about Syracuse.

How can we get better? Ricky is playing awesome (more on him later), but its almost impossible for a post player to be The Guy. Generally, perimeter players have a much greater influence on the offense and, specifically, the Orange free-wheeling offense uses post players like Rick as complements to the backcourt. Scoop might think he's The Guy (more on him later), but he's the only one who thinks that. Brandon Triche...no. One of these Freshmen could grow into the part, but so far we have seen no evidence that will happen. That leaves Kris Joseph. To paraphrase Dennis Green, KJ needs to be who we thought he was.

Kris Joseph: Hoping for More
Last year I was comparing KJ favorably to Wes Johnson. Wes always had the better shot, but KJ can attack the basket as well as any swing-man in college. He was an incredible weapon on last year's loaded team, deservedly winning the Big East's sixth-man of the year award. The consensus was he would slot into Wes's position on the starting lineup. So far, for all his skill and explosiveness, he is falling short. He's averaging 14.6 ppg. That has to be closer to 17. Here are his point totals on the season: 14, 10, 3, 18, 22, 16, 8. Unimpressive. He's shooting 45.6% this year, down from 49.0% last year. He's getting half a rebound and half a steal less than last year. He's only playing 27.6 minutes per game, the same as last year, which tells you what Boeheim thinks about KJ's performance. (For comparison, Wes played 35 mpg last year and averaged 16.5 ppg.) The one mildly bright spot: he's shooting 33% from 3-pt range and has hit 9 total, as many as he hit all last year.

KJ must play better on offense. He has to be the guy opponents fear, because there is no one else (well, except Ricky...we'll get to him, I promise).

Scoop Jardine: Hoping for Less
Scoop is a lovable guy. He's a great leader and a critical piece of this young team. He fills up the box score and is capable of 20+ points on occasion. Despite all he brings to the table, some fans are starting to turn against Scoop. He's got a great handle, but his decision-making with the ball is shaky at times. The NC State game was typical. He finished with only one turnover, but if you watched the game it felt like more. If PGs have a dial that can be set somewhere between "get a shot" and "make a pass," Scoop's has to be tweaked just a bit more towards setting up his teammates. Actually, 11.0 ppg is just about right. But there should be a fourth player cracking double-digits. Perhaps the slow start of the Freshmen deserves some of the blame, but right now I miss Andy Rautins a lot more on the offensive end than I thought I would.

Ricky Jackson: Absolute Stud
Whatever happens with the rest of the squad, this team is going to be top-25 and a tough out in the tourney because of Ricky. Double-zero looks brilliant right now. His streak of 6-straight double-doubles ended tonight, but I guarantee you he betters that number this season. Dropping 25 pounds made him faster, but he hasn't lost the strength. I want him to get the ball more on offense, even against taller defenders. His 12.7 ppg should be closer to 15. An NBA team is going to draft him late this year, or sign him undrafted and have a very nice role player deep on their bench. I love Ricky, and you should too. Make sure you enjoy his senior season because he is a delight.

Still, he can't be The Guy. He has to be fed the ball in the post to go to work. He can't set himself up. It takes a Blake Griffin-type post player for The Guy to be a power forward/center. Ricky isn't good enough to score 20+ ppg. (I'm sorry, Ricky. I promise it will be the last negative thing I say about you, for the rest of your life.)

Brandon Triche: Whatever
Apologies to JD High School, but at this point I get little-to-no excitement from Triche. Granted, he's off to a cold start from 3-point range - that has to get better, and I suspect it will. But I've found I don't expect anything from him, and I'm never surprised. He's had one game in double-digits: 16 against Canisius. I'd almost rather Boeheim start Dion Waiters over Triche right now. He's averaging 3.3 TO per game. Yikes. He's just a sophomore, so he could make a leap this year but... ugh.

Mookie Jones and James Southerland: Up to Boeheim
Every year we think Boeheim will go 10-deep with his bench. Every year, when he doesn't go deep, it's the most common complaint local fans raise. I'd love to see more of Jones or Southerland or both, because we sure could use a great shooter. But I'm going to have to trust Jim. He's won a lot of games, more than you and me combined.

The Freshmen: Upside
To quote Judge Smails, "Well...? We're waiting!!!" They've shown flashes of brilliance. Even Fab Melo (let's call him "New Melo" on the Sauna, shall we?) is starting to make some plays. Waiters looks good with the potential to be great. C.J. Fair looks good with the potential to be exciting. Baye Moussa Keita (which, literally translated, means "pleasant surprise") has been unexpectedly impressive. If someone had said one of the Freshmen bigs would have 6.1 RPG and 1.4 BPG through seven games, you and 99.9% of the world would have said it would be New Melo. You and 99.8% of the world would have been wrong (+/- .1%). So, okay, they all might be good. But let's be honest, Syracuse's pre-season ranking (and, thus, their current ranking) was based on the premise that Waiters and Melo and maybe Fair would be contributing in a big way. So far that is not the case. One and done? Not for any of the four, from what we've seen so far. Not even Baye Moussa Keita (which, literally translated, means "one and done").

Prognosis: Negative
We're left with a good-but-not-great team. The most telling stat is our points per game: 70.6. That would be a nice total for a mid-major team that wants to play slow and efficient. Like... say... 2009-10 Butler, who averaged 70.1 by blowing out lesser teams and grinding out low scoring against more talented opponents (as we know all too well). Last year Syracuse scored 81.5 per game. That was a bit of an anomaly; the Orange passed as good as any Boeheim team ever, and shot extremely efficiently from the field. This year's defense has a chance to be as good as last year's if not better because of the ridiculous height and length SU can throw at opponents. So 70 points a game is going to win a lot of games. But it is not going to beat elite teams. For example, Syracuse is going to lose to Michigan State on Tuesday; I've never been so certain of defeat.

The great Syracuse teams of the last decade have used brilliant defense to trigger an up-tempo offense with good transition. To an extant, this Orange team does that aspect pretty well. Indeed, that's how they held off North Carolina State. Syracuse is loaded with athletic ball handlers who can take it to the rim, plus a big man with a great touch who turned into a freakin' gazelle over the summer. It's in the half court offense where they are struggling. Seventh best in the country? No. More like 17th. Until KJ's game makes a leap forward, it's time to temper our expectations in Syracuse.