SU-UConn: Boeheim Presses the "Reset" Button

Nothing washes away 4-straight losses like beating UConn at Storrs. Seriously, I feel so much better now. Sure, it was a hideous game. But consider the following and smile:

• UConn was deservedly ranked 7th, but the Huskies were outplayed throughout the second half. SU's biggest win of the season re-establishes their top-15 credibility.
  
• Jim Calhoun and UConn haven't beaten SU since February 2009. In that short period of time, the two teams have played a total of 6 overtimes against each other! It's true! Look it up! (Giggling gleefully to myself...)
  
• Boeheim now has 8 more career wins than Calhoun.
• After all that, SU is now 1/2 game ahead of UConn in the Big East standings, and two wins better overall.
  
• Except for the small contingent of SU fans, everyone at the game had to make the long drive back to their suburban mansions sad and disappointed. I can see them now, slumped back on their leather couches, miserably munching on grapes and brie, and shouting at their butlers to go fetch a second bottle of wine from the cellar. Typical UConn fans!

So I'm very happy. But how did this happen? How did we stop the slide? How did we get our first lead since we hit the first basket of the Villanova game, and how did we not fall behind for the entire second half?

It starts with Boeheim, the man who has never had a 5-game losing streak. He never gets too high when things are going good, and he never gets too down when the poop is literally hitting the fan. That matters when you're dealing with a bunch of knucklehead 18-22-year-olds, and running the gauntlet that is the Big East schedule.

As you know, the last four games were ugly. How ugly? Well, I'll answer that with a one-question quiz. Which of the following thoughts did I NOT have today before the game started?
A) There is absolutely NO WAY we are going to win this game.
B) This team's collapse and demeanor is starting to feel like the '01-'02 Preston Shumpert-DeShaun Williams season. (Side note: I hope I never again compare ANY SU season to the team that inspired the "DeShaun Williams impregnated Julie Boeheim" joke, that was hilarious to me and my college friends because of the small-but-real chance it could've happened.)
C) I don't know if I want to go to any more Orange home games this season.
D) Maybe Jim Boeheim's lost his touch.

Obviously, the answer is D. I'm an unapologetic Boeheim...um...apologist. That brings us back to what he did with this team. For four games, other than the 2nd half against Marquette, the Orange were barely competitive. So Boeheim calmly rose to his feet, walked to his Nintendo, and pressed the reset button.

Suddenly, the Orange were back at the beginning of the season, only wiser from the experience. Syracuse started the game slow (as they did early in the season). KJ, irreplaceable down the stretch just as he should be, got off to a slow start, which left the rest of the team to feel out their roles on offense. Into that uncertainty came the freshmen, particularly C.J. Fair and Dion Waiters (having checked out of Boeheim's doghouse). Both took advantage of opportunities when they came. For the most part, neither tried to do too much. Fair ended with 6 points and 4 rebounds. Dion, I thought, played his best Big East game with 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals.

Speaking of steals, the defense looked much better. Syracuse's 12 steals were the most since they snagged a dozen against Morgan State on December 20. Half of those steals were made by Baye Keita. I'll say that again. Half of those steals were made by Baye Keita. He benefited from more activity on the perimeter, harassing the Husky guards. But the Big Lanky (I like that! I just made that up!) deserves a lot of credit - he also had 4 points, 11 boards, and 2 blocks. How can you give New Melo minutes with Keita playing this well? Coincidentally, Baye Moussa Keita, literally translated, means, "New Melo's Bane."

UConn's 58 points was their lowest total of the season. Future superstar Jeremy Lamb had 22, but no other Husky scored in double figures. That includes, of course, Kemba Walker, who didn't score a point over the final 12:55.

Back on the offensive end, the Orange didn't score a lot of points (like earlier in the season), but against the very good UConn man-to-man defense the Orange scoring was balanced, from the Freshmen to the vets.

Ricky was still Ricky. 13 points, 13 boards, death and taxes.

KJ was, as I said above, crucial down the stretch. If a pharmaceutical company figured out a way to put "KJ attacking the hoop and getting fouled" into a pill form, I would be headed to rehab for drug abuse. I love it when he gets to the line. Give me more, KJ! Give me MORE!

Triche was very good. He got the Orange off to a strong start at the beginning of the second, hitting the first Syracuse three of the game, and following that up with a looooonnnng two that I didn't like him shooting...until it went in.

Scoop? Well, Scoop was still Scoop. Massive cojones. At 5:46 to go in the game, with SU's lead a precarious three and the crowd as loud as it had been to that point (and by the way, that is NOT saying much; I know the game was ugly, but seriously, UConn, you have to bring more than that), Scoop dribbled across half-court, spotted a seam, and decided to take it himself. He probably would have missed, but the shot was goal-tended. Two minutes later, more cojones. He bricked a long three early in the shot clock. Down the stretch, more cojones. He was 3 for 4 from the foul line. And he wanted to be there.

Boeheim got the team back to basics. The defense was better. The offense was good enough. The vets led the way, but the freshmen contributed nicely. It's only one win, but the ship has been righted.

South Florida is the next destination, and they WILL NOT beat the Orange. Then it's Georgetown in the dome, followed by a trip to Louisville. The Orange could go 0-2 against that ranked pair, but I think one win is more likely. After that, the schedule isn't easy. But Syracuse is now 19-4, and 6-4 in the Big East. 4-4 over the final 8 is very reasonable, and there is no WAY the NCAAs would snub a 23-8 (10-8) Big East team (not including the Big East tournament) with the expanded 68 team field.

Take a deep breath, Syracuse fans. We're back on track.

Identity Crisis: SU Season Preview 2010-11

You gotta know who you are.

When it comes to the offensive end of the basketball court at any level, a team needs to know who it is. What are our strengths? What are our weaknesses? And, most importantly, who is The Guy? You don't need a "The Guy" on defense. That end of the court relies on team effort and good coaching, especially the Boeheim 2-3 zone. Sometimes, it almost feels like Boeheim is manipulating that thing with a video game controller. But on offense, there is only so much a coach can do. Ultimately, players make plays, and The Guy has to emerge who is going to make The Play. Furthermore, the coach can't just say, "You're the guy." I mean, he can say it. But that doesn't make it true. The Guy just is, no matter what anybody says.

Take the Heat. Who is The Guy? LeBron? Wade? Nobody knows. In time, LeBron might assert himself, but until then they have an identity crisis. Bill Simmons was the lone voice crying out in the wilderness, foreseeing this problem as soon as James signed with the Heat. It's one of his primary theories about basketball. As he says, who is the Alpha Dog?

The Guy doesn't have to be The Guy every night. He just has to be The Guy that everyone expects to be The Guy every night. There were a lot of SU games last year when Wes Johnson wasn't the best player on the court. But everyone knew he was the best player on the team. If Rautins or A-O or KJ went off, that didn't change the identity of the team, or the fact that Wes was The Guy. Wes wasn't always a particularly assertive scorer, but that worked well because the Orange had so many weapons. He wasn't particularly vocal as a leader, but that worked well with the personality of the team. Wes was just The Guy.

It's hard to explain but you know what I mean, right? And you can also probably guess my problem with this year's Orange - we don't know who The Guy is.

Based on my minimal knowledge of the 2010-11 NCAA season to date, here are The Guys on the AP top 11 teams (These go to 11 because Baylor might be really good):

1. Duke - Nolan Smith (Though Kyrie Irving is ridiculous and might take the torch by the end of the year)
2. Ohio State - Jared Sullinger (5th-year senior Lighty is the leader, but Sullinger is The Guy)
3. Pittsburgh - Ashton Gibbs
4. Kansas - M. Morris (To be precise, Marcus not Markieff)
5. Kansas State - Jacob Pullen
6. Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
7. Connecticut - Kemba Walker
8. Syracuse - ????????
9. Missouri - ???????? or Marcus Denmon
10. Kensucky - Terrance Jones
11. Baylor - LaceDarius Dunn

Kensucky lost its second game today, but Terrance Jones is a Freshman so they'll have some stumbles early. Looking closer, here are the only teams on that list who haven't beaten a ranked team yet:
Kansas (play their 1st ranked opponent, Memphis, on Tuesday)
Syracuse (play their 1st ranked opponent, Mich State, on Tuesday)
Missouri (lost to Georgetown)
Baylor (play their 1st ranked opponent, Gonzaga, on Dec 18)

Right now, I think Missouri and Syracuse are the pretenders on that list. As you probably heard, Boeheim agrees with me about Syracuse.

How can we get better? Ricky is playing awesome (more on him later), but its almost impossible for a post player to be The Guy. Generally, perimeter players have a much greater influence on the offense and, specifically, the Orange free-wheeling offense uses post players like Rick as complements to the backcourt. Scoop might think he's The Guy (more on him later), but he's the only one who thinks that. Brandon Triche...no. One of these Freshmen could grow into the part, but so far we have seen no evidence that will happen. That leaves Kris Joseph. To paraphrase Dennis Green, KJ needs to be who we thought he was.

Kris Joseph: Hoping for More
Last year I was comparing KJ favorably to Wes Johnson. Wes always had the better shot, but KJ can attack the basket as well as any swing-man in college. He was an incredible weapon on last year's loaded team, deservedly winning the Big East's sixth-man of the year award. The consensus was he would slot into Wes's position on the starting lineup. So far, for all his skill and explosiveness, he is falling short. He's averaging 14.6 ppg. That has to be closer to 17. Here are his point totals on the season: 14, 10, 3, 18, 22, 16, 8. Unimpressive. He's shooting 45.6% this year, down from 49.0% last year. He's getting half a rebound and half a steal less than last year. He's only playing 27.6 minutes per game, the same as last year, which tells you what Boeheim thinks about KJ's performance. (For comparison, Wes played 35 mpg last year and averaged 16.5 ppg.) The one mildly bright spot: he's shooting 33% from 3-pt range and has hit 9 total, as many as he hit all last year.

KJ must play better on offense. He has to be the guy opponents fear, because there is no one else (well, except Ricky...we'll get to him, I promise).

Scoop Jardine: Hoping for Less
Scoop is a lovable guy. He's a great leader and a critical piece of this young team. He fills up the box score and is capable of 20+ points on occasion. Despite all he brings to the table, some fans are starting to turn against Scoop. He's got a great handle, but his decision-making with the ball is shaky at times. The NC State game was typical. He finished with only one turnover, but if you watched the game it felt like more. If PGs have a dial that can be set somewhere between "get a shot" and "make a pass," Scoop's has to be tweaked just a bit more towards setting up his teammates. Actually, 11.0 ppg is just about right. But there should be a fourth player cracking double-digits. Perhaps the slow start of the Freshmen deserves some of the blame, but right now I miss Andy Rautins a lot more on the offensive end than I thought I would.

Ricky Jackson: Absolute Stud
Whatever happens with the rest of the squad, this team is going to be top-25 and a tough out in the tourney because of Ricky. Double-zero looks brilliant right now. His streak of 6-straight double-doubles ended tonight, but I guarantee you he betters that number this season. Dropping 25 pounds made him faster, but he hasn't lost the strength. I want him to get the ball more on offense, even against taller defenders. His 12.7 ppg should be closer to 15. An NBA team is going to draft him late this year, or sign him undrafted and have a very nice role player deep on their bench. I love Ricky, and you should too. Make sure you enjoy his senior season because he is a delight.

Still, he can't be The Guy. He has to be fed the ball in the post to go to work. He can't set himself up. It takes a Blake Griffin-type post player for The Guy to be a power forward/center. Ricky isn't good enough to score 20+ ppg. (I'm sorry, Ricky. I promise it will be the last negative thing I say about you, for the rest of your life.)

Brandon Triche: Whatever
Apologies to JD High School, but at this point I get little-to-no excitement from Triche. Granted, he's off to a cold start from 3-point range - that has to get better, and I suspect it will. But I've found I don't expect anything from him, and I'm never surprised. He's had one game in double-digits: 16 against Canisius. I'd almost rather Boeheim start Dion Waiters over Triche right now. He's averaging 3.3 TO per game. Yikes. He's just a sophomore, so he could make a leap this year but... ugh.

Mookie Jones and James Southerland: Up to Boeheim
Every year we think Boeheim will go 10-deep with his bench. Every year, when he doesn't go deep, it's the most common complaint local fans raise. I'd love to see more of Jones or Southerland or both, because we sure could use a great shooter. But I'm going to have to trust Jim. He's won a lot of games, more than you and me combined.

The Freshmen: Upside
To quote Judge Smails, "Well...? We're waiting!!!" They've shown flashes of brilliance. Even Fab Melo (let's call him "New Melo" on the Sauna, shall we?) is starting to make some plays. Waiters looks good with the potential to be great. C.J. Fair looks good with the potential to be exciting. Baye Moussa Keita (which, literally translated, means "pleasant surprise") has been unexpectedly impressive. If someone had said one of the Freshmen bigs would have 6.1 RPG and 1.4 BPG through seven games, you and 99.9% of the world would have said it would be New Melo. You and 99.8% of the world would have been wrong (+/- .1%). So, okay, they all might be good. But let's be honest, Syracuse's pre-season ranking (and, thus, their current ranking) was based on the premise that Waiters and Melo and maybe Fair would be contributing in a big way. So far that is not the case. One and done? Not for any of the four, from what we've seen so far. Not even Baye Moussa Keita (which, literally translated, means "one and done").

Prognosis: Negative
We're left with a good-but-not-great team. The most telling stat is our points per game: 70.6. That would be a nice total for a mid-major team that wants to play slow and efficient. Like... say... 2009-10 Butler, who averaged 70.1 by blowing out lesser teams and grinding out low scoring against more talented opponents (as we know all too well). Last year Syracuse scored 81.5 per game. That was a bit of an anomaly; the Orange passed as good as any Boeheim team ever, and shot extremely efficiently from the field. This year's defense has a chance to be as good as last year's if not better because of the ridiculous height and length SU can throw at opponents. So 70 points a game is going to win a lot of games. But it is not going to beat elite teams. For example, Syracuse is going to lose to Michigan State on Tuesday; I've never been so certain of defeat.

The great Syracuse teams of the last decade have used brilliant defense to trigger an up-tempo offense with good transition. To an extant, this Orange team does that aspect pretty well. Indeed, that's how they held off North Carolina State. Syracuse is loaded with athletic ball handlers who can take it to the rim, plus a big man with a great touch who turned into a freakin' gazelle over the summer. It's in the half court offense where they are struggling. Seventh best in the country? No. More like 17th. Until KJ's game makes a leap forward, it's time to temper our expectations in Syracuse.

Hopkins to replace Boeheim

Andy Katz broke the story this afternoon. I'm in favor of it.

First, ask yourself this question: if you could have any coach at Syracuse right now, who would you choose? To me the answer is a no-brainer - Jim Boeheim. Yes, there are probably better game coaches out there. There are also probably better recruiters out there. But Boeheim is still a hall of famer when you combine those two categories. And in the most important category, is the coach a match for the school, Boeheim is perfect. He loves the area. He loves the school. He IS the basketball program. If you think that the SU program would be better with Coach K, Roy Williams, or whoever, you're crazy.

So I say, if it's not Boeheim, let's go with a guy most likely to be Jim Boeheim II. That's Mike Hopkins. He'll stick with the 2-3 zone, because that's the only thing he's ever known. And he's already a fantastic recruiter.

If Hop's a catastrophe, THEN you go in a different direction. I don't think Syracuse basketball will have trouble hiring a big name even if the program slips a bit after Boeheim leaves.

Of course, the question is how long will Hopkins have to wait? Boeheim is 63 right now. (I know, it's always crazy to read that, isn't it?) He hasn't said anything about retiring any time soon, but this will certainly increase the times he'll have to field the question. He's still reeling in the recruiting classes. I think he wants to make one more trip to the championship before he's done. But is he really going to keep going to 70? I'll put the over/under at 5 years. And yes, I think we'll go to the Final Four once in that time.
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After I wrote that, something else occurred to me. Boeheim and Jim Calhoun are currently tied for win total. What if they're waiting each other out so they can be ahead on the final list? Jim Calhoun just turned 65 on May 10. And honestly, I think Boeheim, after a rough start, is aging a little bit better than his counterpart...