Predaction: Pitt-UConn, SU-St. John's, and UConn-SU

Let's say an alien scientist came to earth just to check things out. He'd study the earth - biology and geology. He'd study human history, religion, and philosophy. We can assume he's a pretty sharp creature, you know, since he's figured out interstellar travel. So he'd probably blow through those topics pretty quickly. It wouldn't be too long until he turned to popular culture. And not too much longer before he got to sports. And eventually, he'd get to college basketball.

"Who are the best teams in college basketball?" he'd ask.
"Well," I'd say. In this reality, I'm the appointed expert on college basketball for planet earth. Me and Dick Vitale, who become BFFs from the experience.
"That's debatable," I'd say. "But the objective consensus is that the Big East is the best conference in college basketball."
"Show me this, 'Big East!'" he'd say.

That's when I would pull out the Pitt-UConn and SU-St. John's games from yesterday - two great snapshots of what Big East basketball is like in 2011; indeed, two pretty good representations of what Big East basketball has always been.

On Wednesday, Sauna Emeritis Chris twittered, "If I could choose one sporting event to attend every year, I would choose the Big East tourney. NYC, top-flight talent, great rivalries"

Well put. Thursday afternoon, we also had a buzzer-beater, ridiculously physical play (well-officiated, it should be noted), passionate effort, top-notch coaching, excellent defenses, and an awesome crowd.

The UConn-Pitt finish was so good, it 1.) solidified a legendary season for a brilliant player, Kemba Walker; 2.) probably bumped Kemba up a couple spots in the draft, and 3.) revealed a fascinating coach-vs-coach feud boiling under the surface in the conference. The finish was so good, I've just thought of three more points about how good it was. 4.) I hate UConn as much as anyone and more than Georgetown, but I'm going to link to the video of that shot anyway because it was so awesome. 5.) I hate UConn as much as anyone, but Kemba Walker is the best late-game player in the NCAAs.

Finally, 6.) I hate Jim Calhoun as much as anyone and think Jamie Dixon is as good as any man-to-man coach in the nation, but Dixon was spectacularly out-coached on the final play. If you're Calhoun, you run a screen to try to set up a mismatch for Kemba. That's a no-brainer (although it's shocking how many teams don't at least try this when you have 10-15 seconds to run your last play). He did it. If you're Dixon, you want Wannamaker to do his best to stay with Kemba through the screens. You DON'T want Gary McGee on Kemba! Anyone but Big Gary! Yikes! McGee should NOT have switched off the screen. Who cares if some guy named Jamal Coombs-McDaniel is free on the perimeter for a couple seconds?? The only Husky I'm remotely worried about is Jeremy Lamb, and as scary as his talent is, he's still pretty raw. I'm no Jamie Dixon, but if I was, in that final huddle, I tell my guys not to switch on the screen. They switched on the screen, and the step-back was that much easier for Kemba. Long story short, you know a play was great when I'm offering a mild complement to Calhoun, although I think he looked up that final play on a stolen laptop hidden under his chair.

On to St.Johns-SU...

I watched the first half, which was great, and then followed the scoreboard on my laptop during class. (Don't tell Professor Basu!) Even following the score was riveting, and I could just sense it was an amazing game. I went back and watched the second half when I got home. Yup. Classic Big East.

So you know how good Fab is suddenly playing. And Triche, of course, was massive. I think the larger story is that Syracuse is playing really, really good basketball right now. After those annual early and mid-season losses, I don't always buy into the old line, "that loss will be good for us." But in retrospect, the flow of this season really played into our hands. As Villanova's season spirals out of control, it's pretty easy to think, "that could have been us." Nova peaked while the Orange bottomed out. Now Nova bottomed out and has no time to right the ship.

Meawhile SU is better than ever. Let's start with the Freshmen. Speaking of them, Baye Moussa Keita, literally translated, means "remember when I was the best Freshman on the team?" Also, remember when CJ Fair was the best Freshman on the team? As of today, it's 1. Melo, 2. Dion, 3. CJ, and 4. Keita. Would you be surprised if Dion had a big game today? Or CJ? I wouldn't. Dion has been quietly electric off the bench. He can shoot. He can drive. I'm extremely excited about him.

Triche's improvement this season is critical for one important reason. We don't need him to have a great game on offense every night, but when he goes off Scoop doesn't need to. Against the best teams, we need one or the other to be great, but not both.

Triche, along with the rest of the vets - Ricky, Scoop, KJ - look so comfortable in their roles right now, don't they? They've been playing together for 3 years or more at this point, and it shows. That is a huge advantage. Compare them to St. John's; even though they're led by seniors, two of the Red Storm's three best players were JuCo transfers. Plus, their coach is brand new. I would say that SU's experience trumps its poor team free throw shooting in late games. And by the way, Syracuse has its best cooler [Bill Simmons' term for a clutch late game free throw shooter] in Triche since Gerry. Why wasn't the end of the game as close as the rest of the game? SU's experienced talent beat out St. John's guts. I'll say it again - I'm not taking St. John's deep in my bracket.

And now, tonight's game...

If you haven't heard, ESPN U is showing a shortened version of 6OT from 1:00-3:00. Then ESPN Classic is showing the game in its entirety from 3:00-7:00. I've got history reading to do, but you can be sure I'll have the game on in the background all day.

Here are the stakes for tonight's game:

• Building the Big East Tournament's Mystique: Casual college basketball fans will be following this game tonight. If it is as solid as the games were yesterday, it will continue to shape the legend of this tournament. If it is classic, it will take the tournament's status to another level.
• Building the UConn-SU rivalry's status: This rivalry is a strange one, because everyone knows that for SU, Georgetown is their traditional rival. Yet everyone also knows UConn-SU has been a better rivalry over the last decade. Unless Georgetown hoops falls back into something like the Craig Esherick Era doldrums, they will remain rival #1 to the Orange. UConn will be #2. But consider this...how awesome is it that Syracuse has had two legitimate super-serious rivals for over 15 years? What other consistently great program can make that claim? Not Duke, since they stopped playing Kentucky, and since Maryland fell off the map. Not UNC. Not Kansas. Not UCLA. Kentucky-Louisville is probably the best non-conference rivalry today, but neither team has a transcendent conference rival, do they?
• UConn's momentum: They'll be tired if they make the finals of the Big East, and they'll probably lose to the Irish, but with a win over the Orange the Huskies will have earned a high seed in the tourney. Plus, they will have set themselves up for comments like "They'll go as far as Kemba can take us" and "Kemba Walker might be the best player in the tournament" leading into the NCAAs.
• SU's momentum: Hang on...we're going to be using block capitals a BUNCH of times in this paragraph. Make no mistake, this is a MUCH better match-up for the Orange than that impossible Pitt defense. Syracuse is the better team; they're taller, more athletic, and more talented. The Orange SHOULD win. Still, excuse me while I gird my loins: the St. John's win probably sealed a 3-seed for the Orange, and if Syracuse plays well and loses, they'll still take a lot of confidence into the tournament. There's not much to lose tonight. Having said that, a Syracuse win DEFINITELY locks up a 3-seed, gets people talking about SU as a dark horse in the tournament, and gives the Orange even MORE confidence. Plus, they'll be the favorites in the finals against whoever emerges. (Trust me, Notre Dame fans. The bookies will pick SU in the Garden against little Hansbrough.) Have I mentioned how much I LOVE Big East titles?

I'm excited.

A Familiar Pitt

One of the most shocking stats given during SU's 82-72 defeat at the hands of Jamie Dixon and his usual collection of undersized, gritty men was that Pitt has now won 11 of its last 14 games against the Orange.

I can't believe they've lost 3 games to the Orange in that stretch! I thought it was zero.

To save money, the television production could have just rolled any of those recent Pitt-SU games. They all look the same:

• A drastic drop in scoring for the Orange.
  
• A close first half, followed by a run early in the 2nd by Pitt.
• Five-point deficits that feel like ten-point deficits for the Orange.
• Double-digit deficits that feel insurmountable, regardless of the time on the clock.
• Lots of fouls.
• Lots of loose balls ending up in the hands of the Panthers.
• Dixon and Pitt exerting their will on the zone with long, slow possessions the end in wide-open looks.

Here's the Pitt offense: 1. Pass the ball around the perimeter until there are 10 seconds left on the shot clock and SU's zone is in complete disarray. 2. A guard dribbles into the zone, drawing contact all the way. This causes him to lose his balance, or lose control of the ball just enough that it draws more Orange defenders. 3. The guard makes an off balance pass to a wide open shooter for a three. OR the ball rolls loose to a wide open forward on the weak side for an easy shot. 4. If the shot is missed, Pitt's brilliant offensive rebounding gets a put-back against the still-in-disarray Orange defense. 5. Someone in the SU front-court is whistled for a foul, irregardless of whether there was contact on the shot.

On the other end of the court, there is no better man-to-man team than Jamie Dixon's. There were two reasons SU lost the game today. The first was its 1 for 13 shooting from three. Rautins was 1 for 6. Triche was 0 for 5. Wes only attempted 1, in a game where SU trailed by 10+ points for most of the second half. Were the Orange just cold? Not today. Only a few of those misses were easy shots. Rautins was taking a lot of looks off the dribble, or when he wasn't properly set. Triche was forcing his shot late in desperation.

The other reason SU lost was its inability to press the huge advantage it had in the front-court. Here I give less credit to Pitt. It seems to me that the two Bigs just had off days. Rick came in shooting 62%, and A-O was at 67%. Together they went 6 for 12. Less makes off of less shots. Throw in a few offensive fouls, and only 1 offensive board each. That's disappointing, especially against an undersized team. They both fouled out, but that was after the game entered the treacherous Mookie Jones Zone. In the first half, when the pair had a chance to exert their will on offense, they couldn't convert several decent looks. Pitt rebounded their pants off. The Bigs got frustrated.

By the end of the first half, the game was going at Pitt's preferred speed. That meant less touches for A-O and Rick. Wes Johnson properly tried to lift his game, with marginal success in the second. (More on this in a bit, and yes, I did just call you a moron.) Triche and particularly Scoop started to take advantage of Pitt's man to man with drives to the hoop that scored points, but prevented the Orange from running its offense through the Bigs (or Wes and Rautins). Again, credit to Jamie Dixon's defense, but ultimately, it wasn't A-O's or Rick's day.

As for Wes, this Big East game railroaded his style. And when I say railroaded, I mean it was literally RAILROADED. Wes's versatility thrives in uptempo games, triggered by forced turnovers and fast breaks out of the 2-3 zone. SU did force 18 turnovers (several out of the Boeheim press, which looked as effective as it did in the championship season), but Pitt is so good at getting back on defense they didn't turn into too many fast breaks that Wes could take advantage of. It would be interesting to see if Wes plays better next time SU meets Pitt... but (thankfully) Pitt isn't on the schedule again.

The '03 champs infamously couldn't beat UConn. I watched a good chunk of UConn's win over Notre Dame today, and I think the '10 Syracuse is perfectly constructed to take care of UConn when the Laptop Thieves visit the dome on February 10. The Orange are faster, taller, and more athletic. For once, the Orange can out-UConn UConn. Pitt, on the other hand, is the ultimate nemesis for this year's Orange. Again.


Oh, and what were those 3 games that SU won against Pitt? Here they are, backwards chronologically:

65-61 in the 2006 Big East Tournament Finals: The capstone of the Gerry "Overrated?!?" run. With balanced contributions on offense, SU was 8 for 16 from three.
49-46 in the 3rd-to-last game of the '05 regular season: Splitting the regular season series, Hak (17) and Pace (13) were the only players in double figures for either team.
67-65 on Feb 1, 2003: Splitting the regular season series, Hak led everybody with 20.

What can we learn? I think Hak's dominance in those last two games is interesting. The problem is, until Bernie Fine finishes his invention to make a half-Rick Jackson, half-KJ Avatar, SU doesn't have a Hak. Still, it suggests the Orange should attack Pitt inside. Also, Melo had 14pts, 13rbs in the 2003 game. What if Wes just went out and said, "I'm not going to look to score on offense. We have enough other weapons to get good shots. I'm going to pound the crap out of the boards and get my points on put-backs and fast-breaks."

So that's my gameplan for beating Pitt. And if the next match-up comes next year, just substitute KJ for Wes. Let's hope this team doesn't see Pitt in MSG. Or let's hope a lap top flies out of Jim Calhoun's jacket and hits Jamie Dixon in the brain.

Quick Predaction: Notre Dame and Pittsburgh

Notre Dame...

• I can't emphasize enough how brilliantly Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku played on defense against Luke Harangody. Ignore the reigning conference player of the year's 25 points. It's his 9 for 28 shooting that begins to tell the story. Harangody has a fantastic touch. Of the 9 shots he did make, probably 5 or 6 of them were tough, away from the basket shots. The credit probably should start with Boeheim, who drilled into Jackson and Onuaku the need to stay down and between Harangody and the hoop.
• On the other end of the floor, I was amazed at what a lackluster defender Harangody is. Matched up mostly with Jackson, he gave up 14 points on 6 of 10 shooting. He committed only one foul and got only one block. He might win player of the year again based on his offensive skills, but Harangody is not going to make a good pro.

Pittsburgh...

• I was disappointed that Louisville knocked off Pittsburgh the other night, first because I wanted to play Pitt while they were undefeated and second because Pitt now has the bounce-back factor going for them, just as Syracuse had going against the Irish.
• Pitt is allowing only 63.6 ppg in the Big East. Syracuse is scoring 82.2 ppg in conference (including 59 in the ugly South Florida win). Something's gotta give. I think Pitt's Howland-Dixon defense slows down the Orange. In a lower scoring game, threes become even more valuable. If Flynn, Devo, and Rautins are hitting, Syracuse will pull this one off. I'm skeptical, though. That defense, with that crowd... doable, but unlikely. Pittsburgh, 70-68.