Pre-Season Bracket

OK, I've finally finished my projected bracket based on my Ultimate NCAA Rankings. Before I unveil that, let me also give you my conference rankings, based on the average rank of teams in each conference, which is provided in parenthesis:

1. Pac-10 (53)
2. SEC (71)
3. Big 12 (87)
4. Big East (88)
5. Big 10 (91)
6. ACC (107)
7. Mountain West (109
8. MVC (143)
9. WCC (151)
10. Big West (157)
11. Horizon (160)
12. A-10 (162)
13. SoCon (165)
14. Colonial (168)
15. MAC (174)
16. Patriot (175)
17. C-USA (177)
18. WAC (179)
19. Big South (194)
20. OVC (196)
21. MAAC (199)
22. Big Sky (205)
23. Ivy (212)
24. America East (218)
25. Atlantic Sun (219)
26. Southland (219)
27. Sun Belt (224)
28. MEAC (231)
29. NEC (236)
30. Summit (246)
31. SWAC (254)


Couple notes... while the Pac-10 has the highest average rank, I still think the Big East is the best conference. The top ten teams in the Big East have an average rank of 31! I do, however, think the ACC is down this year.

OK, onto the Bracket. I'm not going to muck about with all the technicalities, like avoiding conference match ups. I'm just going to slot everyone in through an S-curve based on my top 65, with every projected conference champ getting a bid. Conference champs are in bold.

EAST
1. Georgetown
16a. Sacred Heart
16b. IUPUI
8. Southern Illinois
9. Utah State
5. Kentucky
12. Wyoming
4. Ohio State
13. UW-Milwaukee
6. USC
11. Temple
3. Washington State
14. Tennessee Tech
7. Notre Dame
10. Texas A&M
2. Tennessee
15. ETSU

MIDWEST
1. UNC
16. Hampton
8. Davidson
9. Arkansas
5. Butler
12. Texas Tech
4. Syracuse
13. Miami (OH)
6. Duke
11. Saint Louis
3. Louisville
14. Lehigh
7. Mississippi State
10. Xavier
2. Michigan State
15. McNeese State

SOUTH
1. Memphis
16. Miss. Valley State
8. Oregon
9. Kansas State
5. Virginia
12. Dayton
4. Texas
13. Minnesota
6. Kent State
11. Arizona State
3. Vanderbilt
14. Montana
7. Connecticut
10. Wisconsin
2. UCLA
15. Winthrop

WEST
1. Kansas
16. Vermont
8. VCU
9. Marquette
5. Purdue
12. Providence
4. Pittsburgh
13. UC-Irvine
6. Missouri
11. Saint Mary's
3. Gonzaga
14. Siena
7. Califronia
10. Western Kentucky
2. Indiana
15. Penn

Remember, these are based on my pre-season rankings, so obviously I wouldn't give Syracuse a 4-seed right now. Of course, that's not to say they couldn't still finish hot and do it after all. The other thing is that I've got at-large teams getting 13-seeds, which almost never happens. Usually, the conference tourney upsets result in conference champs taking up all the seeds from the 16s into the 12s. Anyway, we'll take a look back at this at the end of the season. For now, I'll leave you, Lunardi-style, with the last 8 teams left out of my bracket, and the breakdown of the multi-bid conferences.

Last 8 Out
George Mason
Maryland
Missouri State
UC Irvine
UNLV
Georgia
Tulsa
UC Santa Barbara

Conference Bids
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Big 10 - 6
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 5
A-10 - 4
ACC - 3
WCC - 2
Horizon - 2
MAC - 2

Continuing Hatred of the NCAA Selection Committee

I've never been a huge, huge proponent of the "East Coast Bias" theories floating around. But as UNLV wrapped up their impressive upset of Wisconsin in the phony NCAA tournament, Jim Nantz noted that the Rebels had been unhappy with their 7-seed coming into the tournament. That got me thinking... Southern Illinois got a 4-seed...Butler got a 5-seed...and UNLV, a team with 28 wins in a high-mid-major conference, gets a 7-seed? THAT'S east coast bias.

So I went back and checked Joe Lunardi, who I believe picks a fairer bracket then anyone. Sure enough, he had UNLV seeded at FOUR. He had the Salukis at a 3 (very fair, considering that the MVC is probably stronger than the Mountain West). But he had Butler as a 7.

Similarly, Nevada got a 7-seed. Lunardi had them seeded at 5.

Here's what I think: the Pac-10 can claim to be underrated all they want. Their top teams generally play well enough in the NCAAs, and they regularly get into the final four or better. But they don't regularly out-perform their seeding. The east coast knows about the Pac-10. We know Arizona always has talent. We know Oregon tends to have good guards and chokes early in the tournament. We know UCLA has a fantastic coach that has them playing good defense. And of course, we know about Gonzaga.

But I didn't hear anything about UNLV all year. I never know what's going on in the Mountain West until their conference tournament winds down. We know about Nick Fazekas because he's had such a long, successful career. But I probably don't respect the WAC quite as much as I should.

I think that the committee treats the Pac-10 fairly relative to the other majors, but I don't think they treat the western mid-majors fairly relative to the mid-majors east of the Mississippi.

Bottom line: I'm slightly more concerned about San Diego State (out of the WAC, facing Syracuse Monday night in the NIT) than I was 30 minutes ago.