Salary Cap Considerations

First, read this excellent article referred to me by my brother Dan. Shawn Hoffman of Baseball Prospectus points out that a salary cap in baseball might be devastating to small market teams, believe it or not.

Chris actually was the first one to get me thinking outside the box about the value of parity, particularly in baseball. Frankly, it's delightful to see the Yankees lose. It was cool to root for the Rays this year, and smaller teams in general.

Chris has also criticized the NFL because "he doesn't know who is good," and that has really played out this year. Still, I think the NFL regular season is ridiculously compelling because of the parity. I haven't been into fantasy that much, and I'm still addicted to watching football on Sunday almost in spite of myself.

On the other hand...last year was one of the best NFL regular seasons in memory precisely because there was one dominant team. Actually, there was one dominant team and a couple really, really good teams. Remember the hype for the Cowboys-Pats, Indy-Pats, and Giants-Pats games? Ridiculous.

Devo and Notent Notables

• The latest from ESPN.com. More from Syracuse.com.

• I actually told Cousin Mark last week that I thought Devendorf would eventually be suspended, based mainly on the fact that he was already on probation. Wrong again. I think it's a pretty fair penalty. I also don't think a non-basketball playing SU student would have been treated as harshly as Devendorf, but I have no experience with the judicial board to back that up.

• Flynn is also questionable for the Memphis game. Bummer. Actually, that turns it into something of a low risk, high reward game. The selection committee does take into account missing players when considering a team's body of work.

• I feel like I've got a superb feel for the NFL right now. Trust me when I say that Carolina is the team to beat in the NFC all of a sudden. If you saw the MNF game against the Bucs a couple weeks ago, you know why. In fact, gun to my head, they're my pick to win the title.
  

• In the AFC Tennessee (like the Giants) peaked at the wrong time. The Titans (like the Giants) have lost a key player at a bad time in Albert Haynesworth. They think he'll be ready for the playoffs, but at what capacity?

• Indy is, as we all know, the hottest team at the moment. They need Bob n' Joe to be healthy if they're going to challenge for the Super Bowl.

• Pittsburgh is the other contender from the AFC. All of the east teams are flawed, unless the Jets can get clicking again in the final two weeks.

• Love the K-Rod signing for the Mets. LOVE IT. What's that about him being injured? I CAN'T HEAR YOU! LA-LA-LA-LA-LAAAAAAAA!!!!! (plugging ears)

• Finish with new SU football coach Doug Marrone. It's unbelievable how quickly everybody in Syracuse started drinking his kool-aid. There must have been a truck out delivering it door-to-door. Whatever the case, I missed my cup. I'm still sipping on a nice batch of Turner Gill. Okay, so Gill wasn't passionate about the job the way Marrone was. Other than that he's better than Marrone in EVERY WAY. I won't rehash all the knocks on Marrone. You've heard them already. I will say that they all concern me. It's another five-year roll of the dice for Gross. If we had taken Gill and he had used us as a stepping stone, at least that meant he succeeded in some way here. I guess it could have been much worse. We could have hired Gene Chizik! That guy SUCKS!
  

Tony Gwynn Jr. article

Here's a great story I just read about Tony Gwynn Jr.'s hit off of Trevor Hoffman that marked the beginning of the end of the 2007 Padres. Well done Tom Friend of ESPN The Magazine.

September was pretty incredible last year, wasn't it? The way the Mets lost gave me a funny feeling about it, of course. I didn't get to watch their last two or three games because I was working, and I didn't want to watch the recordings after I heard they lost. So I think I was less crushed then dazed. It was like I was at the movies waiting for my date to arrive, but she never showed, so I went to watch the movie anyway by myself, the whole time wondering what had happened to her.

A personal note: I'm off to St. Louis for the weekend so no posts until Tuesday at the earliest. I've been thinking about taking a stab at a post ranking the NBA teams as the league enters year 2 of its rejuvenated era.

Josh Beckett

You ever have a sports argument that stuck with you, and that you kept mulling over and over months later? I keep thinking about our All Star Game ranking discussion that we had here. Lately, I've felt vindicated for placing Josh Beckett on the same tier as Jake Peavy. That was singled out by Chris in his comment on my rankings. He felt Peavy should have been a level higher. Clearly Beckett, who has been the best pitcher in the playoffs twice, for two different World Series winning teams, is really putting together a special career. He might even be a rich man's Curt Schilling. Or perhaps more accurately, Roger Clemens's arm attached to Curt Schilling's heart. (Ewww...that's gross, if you take that literally.)

Meanwhile, not a lot was said about Jake Peavy demanding the ball on three days rest against the D-Backs on September 5 then promptly losing the game. That was a key game, even at that stage. The Diamondbacks took a 1-game lead out of that game and ended up winning the division by that margin. That's a bit of a debacle for Jake

I think I'd keep my rankings pretty much the same, except I'd move Beckett, Paplebon, and Holliday up to Tier 1 of the Young and Rising. I'm certain Ichiro is going to make the Hall of Fame, and I stand by my claim that Billy Wagner will too. I'm taking a step back on Utley, though, after perusing his baseball reference page.

Are you gonna eat that?

One of my favorite strategies when going out to dinner with a bunch of friends is to order a small dish then eat whatever everyone else doesn't finish or like. I can usually stuff myself silly that way. I kind of feel the same way about Alex Rodriguez right now.

"Is anyone gonna take that? No? OK, send it down here."

A month after single-handedly (or as single-handedly as possible for an offensive baseball player) helping the Yankees make the playoffs, A-Rod is persona non grata for everyone everywhere. The Yankees don't want him since he opted out of his contract. The Red Sox don't want him because he showed them up by opting out the day Boston won the Series. The Angels don't want him because their owner has said in the past he wouldn't want to spend that much of his payroll on one player. No one else wants him because of the price tag and because he's a clubhouse cancer and will never win a championship. At least those are a few of the reasons I've heard tossed around this week. Most of all though, everyone just dislikes him because all he cares about is money.

Well, I dislike him. I do think money is most important to him. And I do think he's a basket case come the playoffs. But I'll take him on the Mets, given a slightly different reality, and if no one else wants him.

This year the Mets paid Delgado $14.5 million, Pedro $14 M, and Beltran $13.5 M. Oh and Shawn Green was fourth on the payroll with an insane $11.8M. Those guys are still under contract next year, and they've got to do anything possible to keep Wright and Reyes forever. Also, the Mets need to spend money on starting pitching. Now is not the time to buy A-Rod. But if Delgado and Green could magically be erased. If Wright and Reyes were inked to magical contracts that pays them what they deserve and locks them up for 20 years. If Pedro suddenly turned back his clock eight years and if the Mets knew beyond a doubt that Maine and Ollie Perez would both win 17 games. Then I'd take A-Rod.

OK, those are huge ifs. Obviously, I don't really think it'd be a good idea to sign A-Rod given the current situation. But I do think A-Rod would be a good fit for the Mets. I think he could help the Mets win a championship. Actually, I think he could help a lot of teams win a championship.

Take Boston. Every Boston fan wants to sign Mike Lowell without a glance at A-Rod. Certainly, Boston fans hate A-Rod. But consider this: Papi, Manny, A-Rod. Are you kidding me? That's one of the greatest clutch power hitters of all time, one of the greatest RBI hitters of all time, and the greatest hitter of this generation in his prime. They would absolutely blow the Yankees out of the water in the regular season, and Papi and Manny would take care of business in the post season so that A-Rod would come to the plate looking to continue a rally rather than start a rally. I would love to see A-Rod win a series with Boston. That'd really delight me in the same way that seeing Shaq win a championship without Kobe delighted me. Listen Boston fans: Mike Lowell is never going to be this good again. Let him go. I really think A-Rod is a good fit for Boston. It'd be a rocky start, sure, but it would work.

I guess I don't buy that A-Rod is the clubhouse poison that people are making him out to be. He's not insane. Maybe he's a bit standoffish but he's not a jerk. He just likes making a lot of money putting up historic numbers.

"The Yankees will be better off without him," has been a common refrain this week. Has anyone thought that perhaps A-Rod would be better off without the Yankees? The Yankees were always going to be bigger than A-Rod, no matter what he did. And he was always going to be judged solely on the post season. But most of all, I don't think the personality of the Yankees matches up with A-Rod. They're too intense, too clean cut, too centered on their tradition. A-Rod could be the one and only star in California with the Angels or the Dodgers. Or he could grow a goatee, stick it to the Yankees and win a title in Boston. Or he could jump over to the happy-go-lucky Mets where traditional expectations are lower and a single World Series title would be MORE than enough to earn him the love of Mets fans.

I'm rooting for A-Rod to end up on the Red Sox because of what that would mean for that rivalry, and because I really believe that would bury the Yankees in the AL East. I'm not predicting A-Rod will win a championship with whoever he ends up with. I'm not even predicting he'll definitely be a success. I'm just saying that you're wrong if you pass on A-Rod for any other reason than cost. And if you do, you can pass him down to me.

* * *

On a related note, I think Joe Girardi was the right guy for the Yankees job. But I still stand by the statement I made when Torre left: "The new manager will be gone by 2010."

Why the 2007 Colorado Rockies will win the World Series

The 2007 Colorado Rockies will win the World Series because they are baseball's version of the 2003 Syracuse basketball team that won the National Championship.

I've been formulating this theory for a while. The most striking similarity is that both teams got hot at just the right time. It's been three decades since an NL team won its first 6 post season games. Back in 2003, after January, Syracuse didn't lose to a single basketball team besides Connecticut.

Other things feel the same. Both teams came from off the national radar. Colorado was dead and buried halfway through September. Syracuse was mentioned by a few experts before the tournament as a dark horse, but was certainly not a favorite. Both teams relied on a lot of young players, with some key veterans in the mix. I think I can even find parallels in specific individuals of both teams:

Matt Holliday is Carmelo Anthony - This one is obvious. 2003 was a coming out year for Melo. 2007 is a coming out year for Holliday.

Troy Tulowitzki is Gerry McNamara - Rookie. Less heralded than Holliday/Anthony. By the end of the regular season, he was the surprising team leader. (TBD: Troy's clutchness)

Todd Helton is Kueth Duany - After weathering some rough years, the vet finally sees some well-deserved success of which he plays no small role.

Kazuo Matsui is Billy Edelin - A brief stint in the lower levels (minors/AAU ball) catapaults him back into the limelight for a short, sweet and extremely effective time.

Jeff Francis is Craig Forth - Under-appreciated, both by the fans of his own team and outside observers, he nonetheless is critical to his team. If he performs crappy, there is no title.

Ubaldo Jimenez is Hakim Warrick - He isn't the star of the team, but watching him at the time gives you the distinct feeling that he may be a star in the future. (TBD: A shutdown game in the World Series would be Ubaldo's version of The block.)

Manny Corpas is Jeremy McNeil - He does the job with a slightly dazed demeanor, but at least he does the job.

Willy Taveras is Josh Pace - Glue.

LaTroy Hawkins is Matt Gorman - Years later you will be mildly surprised to recall he was a part of that year's roster.


See? Plus, either Boston or Cleveland would fit the role of Kansas. Boston would fit as a heavy favorite with a dominating duo (Ortiz/Manny = Heinrich/Collison). Cleveland would fit as a great baseball locale which nonetheless has fallen well short in recent history.

The only thing that doesn't work: Clint Hurdle is no Jim Boeheim. I looked, and the only great baseball manager out there who doesn't have a World Series title is probably Bruce Bochy, and he is still 20 good years shy of Boeheim status.

Anyway, consider this a warning to not underestimate the Colorado Rockies.

Saves, the Hall of Fame, and Billy the Kid

I just wandered onto the wikipedia entry for saves and was struck by the career blown saves list. You would think it would match up more with the all-time saves leaders, but it really doesn't; Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera don't make the top-10. The skew is partially explainable by the way the closer position has evolved. It's also a testament to how rare it is to find a closer who can remain consistently excellent enough to keep his job for a long time.

Which is why I think Billy Wagner is going into the Hall of Fame along with Trevor and Mo when it's all said and done. He's almost two years younger than Rivera and almost four years younger than Hoffman, and pitching as well as ever. If he stays with the Mets, he's a lock for 400 career saves by the end of 2009. A couple more effective years puts him well into the top 5 all-time in saves.

A couple other thoughts on all-time saves stats that factor into Wagner's case. First, I think Lee Smith gets into the Hall in the next couple of years, which are down years as far as candidates for the Hall go. John Franco still isn't officially retired, but if he gets in as well (I rank him behind Smith), 400 would be established as the magic number for closers to make the Hall. Wagner will reach that, and is a better closer than either Smith or Franco was.

The other thing to note is how the caliber of active relievers really falls off behind Wagner. There is simply no one near him. The only other active pitchers on the all-time saves chart are no longer closers.

Based on his current trajectory, Wagner gets in. The only question is which hat he'll wear.

Reaction: No Punishment for Giambi

I'm glad Bud Selig isn't punishing Jason Giambi. I don't like Jason Giambi, but I do respect him for apparently telling the truth about his usage of Performance Enhancing Drugs to the Mitchell investigation. I may be crazy, and I'm certainly an optimist, but I believe Giambi is now clean.

It is far better in the long run for PED users to admit they used and that it was wrong to do so. Selig is right to encourage admissions, as awkward as this first case looks. It doesn't have to be a hard and fast precedent. Selig can deal with future players who admit to using PEDs as he pleases, just like David Stern has been harder on guys who have a more serious background of misbehaving.

After all, it's the elite players I'm interested in. I want to understand how to place them in historical context. I think Giambi's stats were inflated for a few seasons, but I also see that he's a solid player without PEDs. In the end, if the elite players who used admit what they've done, the damage to their legacy is punishment enough. I don't need to see them suspended, much less banned from baseball.

If they're caught, whether from a positive test or by the Tour de France "guilty by association and circumstantial evidence" standard, then they should be suspended. But if they admit their crimes on their own, leniency is the proper response.

Notent Notables

• Looking for something to take your mind off a certain record that was broken last night? I stumbled across this incredible site on ESPN that lists all sorts of random MLB stats with a distinctly Rob Neyer touch to them. If you're a baseball fan and you've never been to that site before, you won't be able to leave without glancing at all the tabs. My favorite is the "Best Games" tab, which ranks the top 10 pitching performances from each league for every season since 2002.
• In a related thought, it bugs me that I link to ESPN.com so much. I feel like I should be reading a wider variety of sources.
• The variety of sports in the Sports Sauna got even more overwhelming today when I made my first ever trip to the horse track. I went to Saratoga with my dad and his buddy. It's a lot more fun than going to a casino, because you invest so much time and thought into your bets, plus you get to see an actual sporting event play out to settle it. I didn't bet much and ended up down, but I did bet on two winners in eight races. You really have to understand all the different kinds of bets to make some money. I tried an exacta bet before the day was up. Fun times! I did somehow recognize the name of one jockey and one trainer. Bob Baffert was was racing Maimonides, who was the only horse with a purchase price in the millions of dollars. The horse backed that up, winning in dominating fashion. I'll be watching for it next year in the Triple Crown.

A Few Notent Notables

• I finally read the comments to my All-Star game post and put up a response. If Justin and Chris and anyone else wants to continue the discussion, I'll add more. Here's the direct link. I stand by my broader list of All-Timers. Even if Ichiro doesn't make the HOF, he's someone I'll talk about for the rest of my life. But I do like Justin's unique classification of Manny Ramirez in the "Manny Ramirez" category. He's not quite on par with some of the other guys on that level, but you can't put him down a notch either. He's so quirky, we'll never forget him. He's the best RBI guy of the past decade. He's Manny Ramirez.
• I'm trying to cut back on the amount I post about PEDs, but I figured I should weigh in on the latest cyclist to test positive. First off, I've watched every single leg this year (with TiVo I can knock them off in an hour and a half) and many stages from the past three years and I've never heard of Patrik Sinkewitz. Second, I think his positive test is very overblown which is bad but also good. It's bad because it's getting the most coverage I've seen of the Tour on ESPN.com. It's good because one positive test is causing such a strong backlash from cyclists and media. I'm even more convinced that this is the cleanest Tour in 20 years. The punishments for doping are so severe and the damage to a riders reputation is so great, I believe most cyclists will decide its not worth it.
• What a great weekend for the Sports Sauna! The British Open, David Beckham in the MLS, and the Tour de France hits the Pyrenees. Alas, it's also going to be quite a busy weekend for me so I probably will only catch the Open live.
  

All-Timers

For some reason, I don't talk a lot of baseball in The Sports Sauna. At least, I don't talk baseball except to release my latest brain fart on PED's. (I'm using PED's as an acronym for Performance Enhancing Drugs. "Stuff" never really caught on.) But tonight is the All-Star Game, and nothing makes me feel like I'm ten years old like racing to the TV in time to see all the All-Star's announced. So let's talk baseball.

Last night I watched the Home Run derby with my dad and my brother. To add to the enjoyment, we had a small wager on the derby and each picked two guys. My dad had first pick. Now heading into the thing, if you had first pick, who would you take? Be honest... Everyone liked Prince, which was a decent pick, but I was thinking defending champ Howard or Pujols. I don't like the first timers, even though Howard won it last year. They tend to be too jumpy. My dad takes Vlady! Then my brother took Prince and I wound up with my top two choices. Of course, you know what happened. I didn't see that coming, but I shouldn't have underestimated Vlady. He's an All-Timer.

I started thinking about how cool it was to watch Pujols and Vlady knock balls to kingdom come. Pujols, when it's all said and done, might be the best hitter of my lifetime. And Vlady is unlike anyone who has ever played the game. They're both special. They're All-Timers.

So let's sort out the All-Star rosters into tiers, with minimal comments. That way, when Griffey steps to the plate tonight for perhaps the last time in an All-Star game, we'll all appreciate it a little more, as we should.

All-Timers
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrero
Manny Ramirez
Ichiro Suzuki
Albert Pujols
Barry Bonds
Ken Griffey Jr.

Hall of Famers
Ivan Rodriguez
Trevor Hoffman
John Smoltz
(or en route)
Chase Utley
Roy Oswalt
Billy Wagner
Johan Santana

Remember Him? He was so...
David Ortiz (clutch)
Torii Hunter (amazing in CF)
Magglio Ordonez (good before he got hurt)
K-Rod (nasty)
Alfonso Soriano (talented)
Brandon Webb (sinkerballin')

Young and Rising (born in the 80s)
Tier 1
Carl Crawford
Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau
Jose Reyes
Miguel Cabrera
David Wright

Tier 2
Alex Rios
Josh Beckett
Dan Haren
Jon Paplebon
CC Sabathia
Justin Verlander
Russ Martin
Brian McCann
Prince Fielder
Matt Holliday
Cole Hamels
Jake Peavy
Chris Young

If he was on your team, you'd love him
Jorge Posada
Michael Young
Victor Martinez
Carlos Beltran

Solid
Brian Roberts
John Lackey
Derrick Lee
Carlos Lee
Brad Penny
Ben Sheets
JJ Putz

He made the All-Star team??
Placido Polanco
Carlos Guillen
Mike Lowell
Bobby Jenks
Gil Meche
Hideki Okajima
Dmitri Young
Orlando Hudson
JJ Hardy
Freddy Sanchez
Aaron Rowand
Francisco Cordero
Brian Fuentes
Takashi Saito
Jose Valverde

Notent Notables

OK, I'm back after my hiatus. To be fair, I was in Bulgaria for 8 days in the last month working at an orphanage with high schoolers. I have a great life.

• A Mets employee pleaded guilty to distributing stuff*. My immediate reaction: at least 50% of Mets between 1995 and 2005 were using stuff. My second reaction: oh well... Go Mets!
• The 1st leg of the Man U-AC Milan Champions league game was the best match I've seen since I moved to London. Both teams passed great and both had control of different stages. Milan took the 2-1 lead by supplementing their typical Italian League skill on the ball with some excellent passes. Man U won by taking over the midfield in English League fashion. Is Christiano Ronaldo the best player in the world? I'll buy it. Is Kaka hot both as a player and as a male? Sure. Is Rooney, with 6 goals in his last 5 matches including one of the biggest of his career, back? I hope so.
• Unless you're Kate Schardein, I was listening to Maximo Park before you. Add them to the short list of bands I liked before they were really big (Gym Class Heroes is the only other one I can think of). The latest band that Kate, my British band insider, introduced me to is Young Knives. They're good too.
  
• I hate the Bloody Sock story. If you think there was anything except blood on the sock, you're a deluded Yankees fan still bitter about being on the wrong end of the biggest choke in the history of sports. That's not my opinion, that's a fact.
• I missed two of my favorite English sporting events while I was in Bulgaria. The Oxford-Cambridge boat race has been gripping stuff in recent years because both teams are so elite that they're always close at the end. And the Grand National horse race is to the American Triple Crown what the gladiator fights in the Roman Coliseum are to modern day boxing.
• Also missed the Masters, but wasn't shocked that Zach Johnson won. I hate it when a guy who everyone who follows golf knows is good but just isn't a star wins his first major and the media feels obligated to write the standard Cinderella Story piece. At the very least, this guy is going to be David Toms: perennially towards the top of the money list and competing for majors every once in a while.
• Speaking of golf, here's a little prediction that I feel strongly about: at the end of his career, Geoff Ogilvy is going to be more popular than Greg Norman ever was. Sometime in the last year I read a little column on espn.com saying that the media love Ogilvy because he gives a great quote and always puts tons of thought into his answers. Since then, almost every golf story I read has an Ogilvy quote in it. Apparently, he's a really bright guy, he's incredibly candid, he's Australian and he's wicked good at golf: everything a golf reporter could want! I think I've finally found one guy I might root for over Tiger.
• Here's to David Halberstam. Amazing life.
• Finally, just in case you're curious, and because its fun to think someone might be interested, I'll leave you with my 2007 Keeper Fantasy Baseball League Roster. * denotes my 4 keepers coming into the season. Three things to note: 1) My other possible choices for keepers were John Lackey, Jermaine Dye, and Francisco Rodriguez...nothing too great. 2.) I'm in first place right now, insanely. 3.) In addition to standard 5x5 stats, we also count Ks and Errors for batters and L's and Complete Games for Pitchers. I highly recommend that format, although the CGs are a bit of a wildcard.

Listed in the order I acquired them...
2B - Chase Utley*
SS - Derek Jeter*
C - Brian McCann*
SP - Scott Kazmir
OF - Bobby Abreu
RP - Joe Nathan
SP - Cole Hamels
OF - Alex Rios
DL - Jason Schmidt
1B - Todd Helton
OF - Magglio Ordonez
RP - Francisco Cordero
P - Chris Capuano
Util - Jeff Francouer
P - Jason Isringhausen
Bench - Moises Alou
Bench - Daniel Cabrera
----All Below were acquired after the draft off the free agent wire----
P - Al Reyes
Bench - Ian Snell
3B - Morgan Ensberg
Bench - Bronson Arroyo
Bench - Rocco Baldelli

It's a very typical team for me. Somehow I always end up with the batters who get tons of RBIs but not a lot of HRs. And I tend to prioritize Ks over Ws for pitching. Capuano, for instance, has been on my team for three years without me having to keep him. I also drafted hoping to get some guys who turn into keepers. I could see Hamels, Rios, Snell, or even Francouer making that leap this year.



*Stuff, you'll recall, is what I've decided The Sports Sauna will call performance enhancing drugs.

Mets, 2007

I've found myself not buying the pre-season hype of the Mets the past few years. Last year everyone thought they'd be World Series contenders. I thought they'd struggle to make the playoffs. I was wrong.

This year, everyone thinks their starting pitching is a problem. I say it's not that bad, and the bullpen will cover for it anyway. So far, I'm right.

You must have starting pitching. I agree with that. But the Chien-Ming Wang corollary states that mediocre pitchers can have good records if a team has a great bullpen and a fantastic offense. So the Mets went out in the offseason and bolstered their offense. They're going to make the playoffs, and they're going to do it for much less money then if they had signed Barry Zito. And they'll get Pedro back for the post-season.

Besides, these guys are not that bad. Here's how I project them, based on their 06 numbers:

Glavine: 30 starts, 14-7, 190 innings, 4.00 ERA
El Duque: 20 starts, 9-5, 120 innings, 4.05 ERA
Maine: 32 starts, 15-5, 200 innings, 3.60 ERA
Perez: Who knows? Could be 8 starts, 2-5, 40 innings, 6.15 ERA
For the sake of argument, let's give him Trash-Trachsel's numbers from last year...
30 starts, 15-8, 165 innings, 4.97 ERA
Pelfrey: Another question mark, for different reasons. 32 starts, 10-8, 170 innings, 4.90 ERA

Let's say Pedro comes back at the beginning of August and is used carefully:
Pedro: 9 starts, 5-2, 60 innings, 3.95 ERA

That's 153 starts, leaving 9 more starts. Clearly, way too optimistic. Plus according to those numbers our starters would give us a record of: 93-35. OK, that's insane. Individually, I think those numbers are good guesses, but some of those guys will get injuries. My point is, last year our starters (games started) were: Glavine (32), Trash-Trachsel (30), Pedro (23), El Duque (20), Maine (15), Alay Soler (8), Perez (7), Bannister (6), and five other guys had 21 starts including Jose Lima who lost all four of his starts.

Last year our starters went 65-49. This year, Pedro is hurt and Trash-Trachsel is gone, but Maine is ready to pitch all year and we've got some depth with Aaron Sele (somewhere Chris just guffawed), Dave Williams, and prospect Philip Humber. Last year's record was compiled with an extremely tumultuous starting rotation. Plus, Jose Lima will not pitch for the Mets this season. So let's say this year the starters will go 65-45.

If anything, the bullpen is better this year. The Mets still have Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez. They added young stud and member of Asterix the Gaul's village Ambiorix Burgos (only my brother is laughing right now, unless the Sports Sauna is bigger in France then I thought), as well as Scott Shoeneweis. In his first 16 games ever in the NL last year with Cincy, Scotty the Shoe threw 14.1 innings and amassed these stats: 11K, 1.19 WHIP, 2-0, 3 SV, 1 HLD, 1 ER = 0.63 ERA. At 33, the Shoe is moving from "prime" to "crafty veteran."

Ambiorix the Gaul is only 22 and pitched on the worst team (KC) in the best division in baseball last year (AL Central). He had a rough time as KC's closer, blowing an insane 12 saves. Even with all the struggles last year, he's held righties to a .234 average in 2 seasons. The guy has great stuff, and could mature into a closer some day. Right now, he doesn't even have to be the 3rd best pitcher in the bullpen.

Here's the bottom line:
1.) The starters will perform as good as the starters performed last year.
2.) The relievers will perform BETTER.

Therefore, the Mets will have a record of 100-62 to win the division. After last year's near miss, they'll break into the World Series this year, where they will lose to the Minnesota Twins. Luckily, Pedro will be so well rested that he'll pitch all 35 games NEXT year, go 25-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 300K in 280 innings and lead the Mets to the World Championship, thus justifying Omar Minaya's decision to hand him that extra year.

This is Love

Tomorrow, Yahoo! opens fantasy baseball. I can't hardly wait. I'm freaking giddy over here. I just read Peter Gammon's new piece — "I don't know about you, but I can't wait to see Gary Sheffield in a Tigers uniform, or Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Barry Zito in the uniform Carl Hubbell once wore, or Greg Maddux, period. I can't wait to see Jon Lester take PFP, Eric Gagne pitch and Aaron Rowand on the field" — and I'm going nuts.

Baseball!

My self-imposed Sonics boycott — and my general ambivalance towards the NFL — has turned me into a rabid Mariners fan. I cannot express to you how thrilled I am by the prospect of a Yuniesky Betancourt - JoLo - Richie Sexson 6-4-3. Brilliant! Adam Jones in center? Are you kidding me! The boys of summer.

Also, my keeper league fantasy players are like sons to me. It kills me that I'm going to have to cut either Delmon Young or Jonathon Papelbon loose. That is a horrid fate. At least I've got Hafner (Pronk!tastic), Crawford and — I almost made it an entire post without mentioning him — King Felix.

Baseball!