Saves, the Hall of Fame, and Billy the Kid

I just wandered onto the wikipedia entry for saves and was struck by the career blown saves list. You would think it would match up more with the all-time saves leaders, but it really doesn't; Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera don't make the top-10. The skew is partially explainable by the way the closer position has evolved. It's also a testament to how rare it is to find a closer who can remain consistently excellent enough to keep his job for a long time.

Which is why I think Billy Wagner is going into the Hall of Fame along with Trevor and Mo when it's all said and done. He's almost two years younger than Rivera and almost four years younger than Hoffman, and pitching as well as ever. If he stays with the Mets, he's a lock for 400 career saves by the end of 2009. A couple more effective years puts him well into the top 5 all-time in saves.

A couple other thoughts on all-time saves stats that factor into Wagner's case. First, I think Lee Smith gets into the Hall in the next couple of years, which are down years as far as candidates for the Hall go. John Franco still isn't officially retired, but if he gets in as well (I rank him behind Smith), 400 would be established as the magic number for closers to make the Hall. Wagner will reach that, and is a better closer than either Smith or Franco was.

The other thing to note is how the caliber of active relievers really falls off behind Wagner. There is simply no one near him. The only other active pitchers on the all-time saves chart are no longer closers.

Based on his current trajectory, Wagner gets in. The only question is which hat he'll wear.