Mets, 2007
I've found myself not buying the pre-season hype of the Mets the past few years. Last year everyone thought they'd be World Series contenders. I thought they'd struggle to make the playoffs. I was wrong.
This year, everyone thinks their starting pitching is a problem. I say it's not that bad, and the bullpen will cover for it anyway. So far, I'm right.
You must have starting pitching. I agree with that. But the Chien-Ming Wang corollary states that mediocre pitchers can have good records if a team has a great bullpen and a fantastic offense. So the Mets went out in the offseason and bolstered their offense. They're going to make the playoffs, and they're going to do it for much less money then if they had signed Barry Zito. And they'll get Pedro back for the post-season.
Besides, these guys are not that bad. Here's how I project them, based on their 06 numbers:
Glavine: 30 starts, 14-7, 190 innings, 4.00 ERA
El Duque: 20 starts, 9-5, 120 innings, 4.05 ERA
Maine: 32 starts, 15-5, 200 innings, 3.60 ERA
Perez: Who knows? Could be 8 starts, 2-5, 40 innings, 6.15 ERA
For the sake of argument, let's give him Trash-Trachsel's numbers from last year...
30 starts, 15-8, 165 innings, 4.97 ERA
Pelfrey: Another question mark, for different reasons. 32 starts, 10-8, 170 innings, 4.90 ERA
Let's say Pedro comes back at the beginning of August and is used carefully:
Pedro: 9 starts, 5-2, 60 innings, 3.95 ERA
That's 153 starts, leaving 9 more starts. Clearly, way too optimistic. Plus according to those numbers our starters would give us a record of: 93-35. OK, that's insane. Individually, I think those numbers are good guesses, but some of those guys will get injuries. My point is, last year our starters (games started) were: Glavine (32), Trash-Trachsel (30), Pedro (23), El Duque (20), Maine (15), Alay Soler (8), Perez (7), Bannister (6), and five other guys had 21 starts including Jose Lima who lost all four of his starts.
Last year our starters went 65-49. This year, Pedro is hurt and Trash-Trachsel is gone, but Maine is ready to pitch all year and we've got some depth with Aaron Sele (somewhere Chris just guffawed), Dave Williams, and prospect Philip Humber. Last year's record was compiled with an extremely tumultuous starting rotation. Plus, Jose Lima will not pitch for the Mets this season. So let's say this year the starters will go 65-45.
If anything, the bullpen is better this year. The Mets still have Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez. They added young stud and member of Asterix the Gaul's village Ambiorix Burgos (only my brother is laughing right now, unless the Sports Sauna is bigger in France then I thought), as well as Scott Shoeneweis. In his first 16 games ever in the NL last year with Cincy, Scotty the Shoe threw 14.1 innings and amassed these stats: 11K, 1.19 WHIP, 2-0, 3 SV, 1 HLD, 1 ER = 0.63 ERA. At 33, the Shoe is moving from "prime" to "crafty veteran."
Ambiorix the Gaul is only 22 and pitched on the worst team (KC) in the best division in baseball last year (AL Central). He had a rough time as KC's closer, blowing an insane 12 saves. Even with all the struggles last year, he's held righties to a .234 average in 2 seasons. The guy has great stuff, and could mature into a closer some day. Right now, he doesn't even have to be the 3rd best pitcher in the bullpen.
Here's the bottom line:
1.) The starters will perform as good as the starters performed last year.
2.) The relievers will perform BETTER.
Therefore, the Mets will have a record of 100-62 to win the division. After last year's near miss, they'll break into the World Series this year, where they will lose to the Minnesota Twins. Luckily, Pedro will be so well rested that he'll pitch all 35 games NEXT year, go 25-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 300K in 280 innings and lead the Mets to the World Championship, thus justifying Omar Minaya's decision to hand him that extra year.
This year, everyone thinks their starting pitching is a problem. I say it's not that bad, and the bullpen will cover for it anyway. So far, I'm right.
You must have starting pitching. I agree with that. But the Chien-Ming Wang corollary states that mediocre pitchers can have good records if a team has a great bullpen and a fantastic offense. So the Mets went out in the offseason and bolstered their offense. They're going to make the playoffs, and they're going to do it for much less money then if they had signed Barry Zito. And they'll get Pedro back for the post-season.
Besides, these guys are not that bad. Here's how I project them, based on their 06 numbers:
Glavine: 30 starts, 14-7, 190 innings, 4.00 ERA
El Duque: 20 starts, 9-5, 120 innings, 4.05 ERA
Maine: 32 starts, 15-5, 200 innings, 3.60 ERA
Perez: Who knows? Could be 8 starts, 2-5, 40 innings, 6.15 ERA
For the sake of argument, let's give him Trash-Trachsel's numbers from last year...
30 starts, 15-8, 165 innings, 4.97 ERA
Pelfrey: Another question mark, for different reasons. 32 starts, 10-8, 170 innings, 4.90 ERA
Let's say Pedro comes back at the beginning of August and is used carefully:
Pedro: 9 starts, 5-2, 60 innings, 3.95 ERA
That's 153 starts, leaving 9 more starts. Clearly, way too optimistic. Plus according to those numbers our starters would give us a record of: 93-35. OK, that's insane. Individually, I think those numbers are good guesses, but some of those guys will get injuries. My point is, last year our starters (games started) were: Glavine (32), Trash-Trachsel (30), Pedro (23), El Duque (20), Maine (15), Alay Soler (8), Perez (7), Bannister (6), and five other guys had 21 starts including Jose Lima who lost all four of his starts.
Last year our starters went 65-49. This year, Pedro is hurt and Trash-Trachsel is gone, but Maine is ready to pitch all year and we've got some depth with Aaron Sele (somewhere Chris just guffawed), Dave Williams, and prospect Philip Humber. Last year's record was compiled with an extremely tumultuous starting rotation. Plus, Jose Lima will not pitch for the Mets this season. So let's say this year the starters will go 65-45.
If anything, the bullpen is better this year. The Mets still have Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez. They added young stud and member of Asterix the Gaul's village Ambiorix Burgos (only my brother is laughing right now, unless the Sports Sauna is bigger in France then I thought), as well as Scott Shoeneweis. In his first 16 games ever in the NL last year with Cincy, Scotty the Shoe threw 14.1 innings and amassed these stats: 11K, 1.19 WHIP, 2-0, 3 SV, 1 HLD, 1 ER = 0.63 ERA. At 33, the Shoe is moving from "prime" to "crafty veteran."
Ambiorix the Gaul is only 22 and pitched on the worst team (KC) in the best division in baseball last year (AL Central). He had a rough time as KC's closer, blowing an insane 12 saves. Even with all the struggles last year, he's held righties to a .234 average in 2 seasons. The guy has great stuff, and could mature into a closer some day. Right now, he doesn't even have to be the 3rd best pitcher in the bullpen.
Here's the bottom line:
1.) The starters will perform as good as the starters performed last year.
2.) The relievers will perform BETTER.
Therefore, the Mets will have a record of 100-62 to win the division. After last year's near miss, they'll break into the World Series this year, where they will lose to the Minnesota Twins. Luckily, Pedro will be so well rested that he'll pitch all 35 games NEXT year, go 25-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 300K in 280 innings and lead the Mets to the World Championship, thus justifying Omar Minaya's decision to hand him that extra year.
Labels: 2007 season preview, Asterix the Gaul, Mets, MLB, pitching
posted by Prof. A at 3:09 AM
1 Comments:
i realize it's been kind of slow pick'n's' at the sauna these days,(not because i check it every 5 minutes at work or anything), so i thought i'd take the reigns and remind us all of a tradition hopefully like many more to come. two years ago, we were blessed to witness this heroic moment in masters history, as a former champion made the most of his lifetime exemption:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/golf/masters_2005/4422653.stm
i like to think the explosion had something to do with playing opposite-handed, and his caddy continually giving him the wrong club, and being enormously drunk. but really, i think this is just another case of knowing *exactly* when to leave on one's high note.
davs
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