Twittering predictions

I'm not feeling as creative or poetic as I did last week, when I bounced back from the 0-4 in round 1 with a 3-1. So I'll limit myself to 140 characters per prediction, not including the final score.

Colts 21, Jets 18
Easy to forget #18's playoff struggles. Well-coached teams can slow him. I see a GW Manning drive being the difference.

Saints 31, Vikings 17
As Favre's last remaining non-Wisconsin resident, non-Viking fan apologist, it kills me...but I think he falls apart in NO. No help from AP.

Syracuse 87, Marquette 70
No one taller than 6-6 gets serious minutes for Marquette. Dome sweet dome, this will be Orange's easiest game in a while.

For your gambling fix, here's my NFL picks

Last week, amidst the boring games we viewed
My picks ability was at best crude.
Does he read me or does my mind comply?
My record was the same as the Sports Guy.

Oh and four! I humbly bow in shame.
Berman says, "That's why they play the game."
Four more games loom for us all to view.
I hope my thoughts are worth much more than poo...

"And shepherds we shall be,
For Thee, my Lord, for Thee!"

The Saints score points through Payton's wizardry.
Home field will help; the Cajuns are crazy.
Still, Warner's wrote the playoff record book.
Taking seven, the Cards are worth a look.

Last week the Packers D was M.I.A.
The Saints defense is weak, or so they say.
Two weeks to plan will be enough to beat
The Zona offense. Saints stay on their feet.

"Once upon a midnight dreary,
while I pondered, weak and weary..."

The Colts give six, one half to Baltimore.
Vegas trusts in Peyton to the core.
The Ravens run as if they are whacko.
QB: Joey Jo-Jo Junior Flacco.

This game stays close, but don't be caught adrift.
Manning the MVP will give the lift
To lead the Colts to final victory.
Lucas Oil gets publicity.

"When I walk these streets, a loaded six string on my back.
I play for keeps 'cause I might not make it back."

"Brett Favre is like a kid out there," they say.
Romo is known to choke a game away.
Peterson's best, though prone to lose
The ball in moments Vikings fans wouldn't choose.

Brett stays indoors, his bones stay nice and warm.
A-P will be the man D's D will swarm.
Two, one half of points is not enough.
To pick the Cowboys. Minny is too tough.

"Then you are set with a capital J,
Which you'll never forget till they cart you away."

An even seven is the spread for bets
The points given to the star-crossed Jets.
I picked against, and bragged to Andrew Waite.
Our cyber-feud, it seems, will not abate.

Once more, I tell you all the Jets will lose.
Four favorites, I think, they all will cruise.
The Chargers are too strong, the Jets too green.
And waiteynyj is very mean.


And so, I think my oh and four is done.
At most, four winners I have won.
Picking the best is always a good way
To dodge humiliation on Sunday.

NFL Playoffs Round 1: Who played Possum?

The answer is... Phish.

I was riding down the road one day and
Someone hit a possum
I was riding down the road one day and
Someone hit a possum
The road was his end
His end was the road
So they say

Whoa possum...possum, possum...POSSUM
Whoa possum...possum, possum... POSSUM
Whoa possum, possum...
Your end is the road


But I digress. In a bizarre coincidence of scheduling, three of this weekend's four match-ups in the opening round of the NFL playoffs are rematches from the final week of the regular season. All three of those games were blowouts. The question for those losers is, who played possum and who was road kill?


Sat, 4:30pm - NYJ @ CIN - Line: Cincy by 2 1/2
The Jets clobbered the Bengals in a game that was meaningless for Cincy. In fact, New York won two straight games to make the playoffs against teams that had nothing to play for after losing a must-win game in week 15 to the Falcons, 10-7. After their 3-0 start, the Jets beat no one good all season.

The Bengals cooled off in the 2nd half of the season. Benson hasn't had a TD since week 9. Palmer has never won a playoff game. Still, it's easy to forget the Bengals went undefeated in the AFC North. That's impressive. The Jets have a great defense that could swing the game if it stays close, but I don't think it will. (Besides, since we're still cyber-feuding, I have to bet against Andrew's Jets.)

Bengals, 28-13



Sat, 8:00pm - PHI @ DAL - Line: Dallas by 4
There was no reason for the Eagles to play dead. A win last week would have given Philly a bye this week, but they looked horrendous in Jerry Jones's House. Now they have to come back into Dallas with their six game winning streak a distant memory and the Cowboys suddenly getting some buzz as a Super Bowl pick.

Call me crazy, but I'm going with the QB, coach, and franchise with nine playoff wins last decade over the QB, coach, and franchise with zero. You know how many times McNabb has been one-and-done in the playoffs? Zero. Yes, he was off last week. It was a classic McNabb bad game. But it sets up a classic McNabb good game, where he stomps on the hearts of Texans (the people, not the team that missed the playoffs). Luckily for Romo, it won't be his fault when Suisham misses the game winning FG.

Eagles, 24-23



Sun, 1:00pm - BAL @ NWE- Line: Pats by 3
New England beat the Ravens 27 to 21 back in Week 4. New England played a little possum last week against the Texans (the team that missed the playoffs, not the people), although not enough to keep Wes Welker healthy. Brady's ribs are dicey too.

With Brady's injury in mind, Ray Rice might be the best offensive weapon on the field. And he wasn't even the Ravens RB with 167 yards last week! This game will be a good one too, but Brady guts it out in the end, setting the stage for "Fourth and Two: Part II" - or as it will soon be known, "The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty" - next week in Indy. (Correction: Sports Guy's mistake confused me. Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty will occur in San Diego.)

Patriots, 28-24



Sun, 4:30pm - GNB @ ARI - Line: Even
A great finale to a delightful weekend. Arizona was absolutely playing possum last week. Either of these teams could get hot and charge into the Super Bowl. We all know about the QBs, but it's easy to forget that Green Bay was 2nd to the Jets in total defense this season. Arizona was 20th, but they return the same speedy defense that keyed their run last year.

This will come down to which offense makes more big plays. I think this season will be remembered as the year Aaron Rodgers firmly established himself as an elite QB. He gets his first playoff win Sunday.

Packers, 27-20

Money Pi¢k$: NFL Conference Championships

I'm starting a new running feature called Money Pi¢k$, and by starting a new feature, I mean I came up with a good idea for a running feature but I'll probably forget about it and never do it again. Here's the premise: you know how whenever sports experts make picks against the spread, they always say that they're picking, "for entertainment purposes only?" Well, I decided to go in the opposite direction. These picks are strictly for illegal gambling purposes, and should be taken right to your bookie. Bet the contents of your wallet, your car, your house, your child's college savings... I am that confident. Here we go...

Philadelphia -4 over ARIZONA

This morning I woke up to discover the tide of picks shifting to the Cardinals. For the first time, people are starting to buy into this Arizona team. Brian Billick, for example, admitted on Mike and Mike to changing his mind on this one over the course of the week, and picked the Cards.

I thought about it, and it makes sense. The offense is as good as advertised, and they're playing at home. This is NOT the Arizona defense of the regular season. Get that out of your head. These guys are playing well. The NFL, more than any other league, is affected by intangibles. Run the season again, with the Cardinals defense playing with this confidence level, and I think Arizona is a 10-win team.

That said, let's remind ourselves of how good the NFC East is. Let's also recall that the road the Cardinals took to get here traveled through two NFC south teams, which in retrospect was probably overrated.

Speaking of "-rated," this Eagles defense might be under the aforementioned "-rated." I was surprised last week when I saw that Philly had the 3rd best total defense in the regular season. Say what you will about Andy Reid, but Jim Johnson is a genius: the Bearded Blitzer. I think they get after Warner and win the turnover battle.

On the other side of the ball, everything is setting up for one last massive disappointment for Philly from my boy, the tragic Donovan McNabb...but not just yet. I'm taking the Eagles here. (Note: when I pick McNabb to win the Super Bowl, it won't be a Money Pi¢k.)


PITTSBURGH -6 over Baltimore

Yesterday I was talking to a Steelers fan about this game. He was ragging a little bit on Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, and predicting a Steelers blowout (30+ points to less than 20 points, to be precise). I forget which show I saw it on, but I believe it was Ron Jaworski who pointed out that Ed Reed is missing tackles this year because of a bum shoulder, running film of him blowing an open field tackle. Interesting. I do think that Ray Lewis made some nice adjustments at the beginning of the year to his steroid cycle, which explains his rejuvenation. Credit where credit is due there. Ha ha ha, just kidding! I don't want to get in any legal trouble here!

My Steeler's friend says the best part of the Raven's defense is their line. Remember that when you start talking yourself into Willie Parker having an amazing day based on his performance last week.

I hesitated to agree with my friend's prediction of a rout, instead suggeting the game would be what we all think it is going to be: a low-scoring, classic cold weather battle of defenses. Aren't we all just drooling over that prospect? One last, final, last cold weather classic in a year that has had a few? Yeah, me too. Which makes me think it might be wishful thinking...

The key here is Joey Joe-Joe Junior Flacco. Yeah, he's looked solid. Solid enough that the utterly useless Dan Dierdorf proclaimed during the Titans-Ravens game that he was never going to call Joey Joe-Joe a rookie ever again after he threw that TD to Derrick Mason (underrated throughout his career, by the way) in the first quarter. I listened, and I don't think Dierdorf ever did use the word rookie in reference to Junior Flacco. He managed to stick with the term "young" whenever Joey Joe-Joe made a bad play. Well done, Dan Dierdorf.

(Speaking of the coverage of that game, I think a fantastic football game was almost ruined by both the commentary and the directing. Wait...I'm going to search for the technical director of that game and call him out. OK, I can't find his/her name. Whoever it is, if you're reading this, let me give you some constructive criticism. Instant replay should be your number one priority in between plays, not sideline shots. Chris Johnson's injury was a key storyline, but not to the point where we needed to see him in between every other 4th quarter play. Give us replays instead! One example: that play when Joey Joe-Joe almost stepped out of the endzone. Needed a replay there. Best of luck with your career. Keep working at it!)

Don't tell Dierdorf, but I'm re-instituting the label "rookie" for Junior Flacco for this game. If the game is close, you have to like Ben over Joey Joe-Joe in the fourth quarter. If (and I think this is likely) the Steelers open up a two score lead in the first half, you're looking at Junior Flacco needing to make some plays. Ultimately, I don't think he can do it at this point in his career. It's the Steelers by at least a TD.

There you go... Money Pi¢k$: picks you can wager actual money on. Now go do it!

Quick NFL Conference Championship Picks

After last weekend, I would have picked the Patriots to cover the 14 point spread. But I've talked myself into the idea that the Chargers are pretty good. Plus, as I noted last week, teams have been covering against the Patriots as of late (now 6 of the last 9). I think the Chargers getting 14 might be the lock of the year.

Of course, I think the Patriots will still win. Again, the only way San Diego pulls it out is if Cromartie has a Game of Insanity.

As for Packers-Giants, I've cooled off on the Giants since last weekend. I think 7 points isn't enough to bet on them. I do think the game will be close and entertaining, but I'm thinking Favre adds a fourth quarter TD to make it a 10 point victory.

I'm giddy over the prospect of Patriots v. Favre. I'll certainly be rooting for the Chargers, but part of me will be disappointed if NE-Green Bay doesn't go down. Of course, I'll be devastated if the Giants win.

A fantastic NFL postseason rolls on

I'm basking in the glow of some of the best predictions I've ever made. If you missed them, they were made hours before the games kicked off. I supported Eli Manning. I pooh-poohed the Dallas team. I said the Jaguars would cover, be in the game in the fourth quarter, but lose. And I said the Packers would win. I missed the Chargers pick, but that was not the Colts defense I had seen earlier this season. They were not sharp at all. For me, the story of that game was the Colts letting San Diego off the hook over and over again. I'll have to double-check, but I think the Chargers' success rate on third and long was 107%.

Unfortunately, the fact that the Colts's defense is The Official Sports Sauna Dud of the Week means we miss out on Pats-Colts next weekend. Instead, I'm afraid the Chargers are going to be an even easier opponent for the Patriots than the Jaguars were. As I said in my last post, I have the impression, probably from Bill Simmons, that the Pats and their fans have a particular disdain for the Chargers. They won't be caught looking ahead to the Super Bowl. Plus, their coach is the best that I've ever seen.

But there is always a chance for an upset. The one thing San Diego has going for them is its very athletic secondary. Perhaps they'll be able to cover New England's receivers well enough to play them tighter than Jacksonville did this weekend. If Brady throws more than one interception, the Chargers win. Pretty unlikely.

In the NFC, I got the game I wanted. Packers. Favre. Lambeau. Mid-January. I am EXTREMELY excited about this. Has a 42-20 game ever been as riveting as that one we just had? I'm so glad I thought to fix the Fox HD signal in our house ahead of time for that one. The Giants should be a tougher opponent than the Seahawks, but how can you not pick the Packers to win this one?

Looking farther down the road, I think Pats-Packers would be a fantastic Super Bowl. I finally understand what Chris has always said about the Yankees, how it's great that they're good because it makes the games so much more interesting when you have a reason to root against one of the teams. This would be the ultimate Good versus Evil game. Frankly, I'm having a hard time thinking of a Super Bowl in my lifetime that was as highly anticipated as Pats-Packers would be.

Of course, the Patriots would probably win. But Brett Favre winning the Super Bowl at age 38? The only sports event that has ever occurred that would be equivalent to that would be Jack Nicklaus winning the '86 Masters. That is my earliest sports memory. I was watching with my dad in the basement of our old house in Camillus, NY. When Jack won, my dad just kept shouting, "Unbelievable! Unbelievable!" over and over again.

Bottom line, unless you're a Giants fan, hop on the Packers bandwagon. Oh, and find an HD TV to watch the Lambeau game this weekend. There is no ceiling to how great this NFL post-season could be.

Notent Notables: NFL Playoffs

• Just heard Sean Salisbury criticizing Matt Hasselbeck for the infamous "We want the ball, and we're gonna score!" comment. I have no experience to back this up, and maybe Fyall can support or refute this, but I always imagine that Seahawks fans look at that moment kinda the same way Nebraska fans look at Tom Osborne's famous "go for two and the win" call back in 1984. Ranked #1 and undefeated, Nebraska failed on the 2-point conversion to lose the game by 1. As I understand it, every Nebraska fan will side with Osborne's decision to their death. It's become mythical. I feel like Seattle fans should love Hasselbeck's comment the same way. It was youthful exuberance and it blew up in his face, but you want your quarterback to have that kind of confidence.

• Speaking of youthful exuberance, Philip Rivers needs to tone it down. He seems so angry all the time. I loved the juxtaposition last weekend of Tomlinson and Rivers. With the play clock winding down, Tomlinson realized they weren't going to get the snap off so he calmly turned to the official with about 5 seconds left to call timeout. As the clock rolled down to zero, Rivers looked up and turned angrily to also call timeout. With the timeout granted he shouted angrily at I don't know who and stomped over to the sidelines. I'm all for intensity, but I think Rivers takes it a bit too far. That will be a story at some point in his career, you watch. For now, the Chargers are lucky that Tomlinson, by all accounts a class act, is the personality and leader of the team.

• Count me in the minority who believe Eli Manning is going to be a fine NFL quarterback. Obviously, he has the physical tools. And his record of three playoff appearances in his first three years is significant. The problem right now is high expectations and high pressure. Expectations are high not merely because of his talent, but because of his last name. Pressure is high because he plays in New York. I wonder if he might have flourished right off the bat had he stayed in San Diego. I also think a lot of people don't want him to succeed because they root against the Mannings (like Bill Simmons) or root against the Giants. I root against the Giants, but I root for Eli and Peyton, especially now that they've got that hilarious SportsCenter commercial.

• Many of you know that I am a proud NFL bandwagon rider. The Bills will always be my favorite, though for a while they were (I'm ashamed to admit) overshadowed by my joyful support of the Greatest Show on Earth Rams. This year was a fun year to follow the Bills, particularly because I got to watch most of their games with my dad, a big Buffalo fan. With the Bills long gone, I am happily settled into my seat on the Packers bandwagon. How can you not drink the Brett Favre cool aid? I loved the SI Sportsman of the Year article. I catch all night with Jason Smith (SU alum) on ESPN radio on my way to work in the early morning these days. The other day he was raving about Favre, and he noted that we fans have been able to follow Favre's topsy turvy life unlike any other NFL star today. He really seems like a regular, accessible guy. And when he retires, pointed out Smith, we won't have any other star like that in the NFL. I mention all this to explain why I am really hoping that the NFC championship is in Lambeau, not just because I don't like the Cowboys, but because I'd love to see Favre on the frozen tundra with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. I think I'd be more excited about that than I would be about Pats-Colts, Part II.

• I do sincerely believe the Giants will be the underdog who wins this weekend. Not because they're playing well. Not because of Eli. I've just felt the whole season that the Cowboys weren't as good as their record, and would be upset in their first playoff game, whoever they play. This is one of those upsets that, when it happens, we'll all realize we saw it coming. First of all, Dallas peaked in the middle of the season. Second of all, T.O. is banged up. That's huge. Third of all, the Romo trip, whether or not it was a good idea, turned out to be a distraction. Fourth of all, Wade Phillips is not that good a coach. I even heard somebody on the radio talking about the mere possibility that he could be fired, despite the 13 wins.

• Other than that, I'm picking the favorites. Indy and Green Bay will beat the spread. I think the Jaguars will cover, but lose. I feel like everyone subconsciously believes the Patriots blew out all 16 of their opponents this year. I mean, everyone KNOWS, that's not true, but their subconscious perception is no one was close, if that makes sense. While I do think this is an historically great team, even without the 16-0 record, I think the remaining AFC teams are not so far below them. I think if they had ended up playing the Chargers at home, that would have been a rout, because they have a bit of a grudge towards them, as does the crowd. But Jacksonville will keep it close and have a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Just like 5 of New England's last 8 opponents, the Jags will cover.

• Mike Tirico, on his radio show, reminded listeners how bizarre the Colts-Chargers regular season game was. Remember? Peyton had one of the worst games of his life and the Colts STILL had a chance to win, but Vinateri actually MISSED that short field goal! It was surreal. This time they'll take care of business. Aaron Schatz had the best point I've heard all week on Bill Simmons's podcast, saying that the person who'll miss Antonio Gates the most on the Chargers will be Tomlinson, not Rivers. Gates would normally occupy Bob Sanders' attention, but now Sanders will be free to key on Tomlinson all game.

• There is almost always someone in the NFL to whom I attribute superhuman skills. For the past couple of years, its been Tomlinson. Now its Bob Sanders. I think part of that comes from Sanders rocketing to prominence while I was in London, because I heard about him long before I actually saw him. Now I love watching him whenever the Colts are on defense. I feel like he's going to do something ridiculously spectacular on every play, and so I tend to be disappointed. But I just keep attributing those superhuman skills to him, and I'll watch him all game tomorrow. You should too. Oh, I also love his name. It's so delightfully pedestrian.