Money Pi¢k$: NFL Conference Championships

I'm starting a new running feature called Money Pi¢k$, and by starting a new feature, I mean I came up with a good idea for a running feature but I'll probably forget about it and never do it again. Here's the premise: you know how whenever sports experts make picks against the spread, they always say that they're picking, "for entertainment purposes only?" Well, I decided to go in the opposite direction. These picks are strictly for illegal gambling purposes, and should be taken right to your bookie. Bet the contents of your wallet, your car, your house, your child's college savings... I am that confident. Here we go...

Philadelphia -4 over ARIZONA

This morning I woke up to discover the tide of picks shifting to the Cardinals. For the first time, people are starting to buy into this Arizona team. Brian Billick, for example, admitted on Mike and Mike to changing his mind on this one over the course of the week, and picked the Cards.

I thought about it, and it makes sense. The offense is as good as advertised, and they're playing at home. This is NOT the Arizona defense of the regular season. Get that out of your head. These guys are playing well. The NFL, more than any other league, is affected by intangibles. Run the season again, with the Cardinals defense playing with this confidence level, and I think Arizona is a 10-win team.

That said, let's remind ourselves of how good the NFC East is. Let's also recall that the road the Cardinals took to get here traveled through two NFC south teams, which in retrospect was probably overrated.

Speaking of "-rated," this Eagles defense might be under the aforementioned "-rated." I was surprised last week when I saw that Philly had the 3rd best total defense in the regular season. Say what you will about Andy Reid, but Jim Johnson is a genius: the Bearded Blitzer. I think they get after Warner and win the turnover battle.

On the other side of the ball, everything is setting up for one last massive disappointment for Philly from my boy, the tragic Donovan McNabb...but not just yet. I'm taking the Eagles here. (Note: when I pick McNabb to win the Super Bowl, it won't be a Money Pi¢k.)


PITTSBURGH -6 over Baltimore

Yesterday I was talking to a Steelers fan about this game. He was ragging a little bit on Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, and predicting a Steelers blowout (30+ points to less than 20 points, to be precise). I forget which show I saw it on, but I believe it was Ron Jaworski who pointed out that Ed Reed is missing tackles this year because of a bum shoulder, running film of him blowing an open field tackle. Interesting. I do think that Ray Lewis made some nice adjustments at the beginning of the year to his steroid cycle, which explains his rejuvenation. Credit where credit is due there. Ha ha ha, just kidding! I don't want to get in any legal trouble here!

My Steeler's friend says the best part of the Raven's defense is their line. Remember that when you start talking yourself into Willie Parker having an amazing day based on his performance last week.

I hesitated to agree with my friend's prediction of a rout, instead suggeting the game would be what we all think it is going to be: a low-scoring, classic cold weather battle of defenses. Aren't we all just drooling over that prospect? One last, final, last cold weather classic in a year that has had a few? Yeah, me too. Which makes me think it might be wishful thinking...

The key here is Joey Joe-Joe Junior Flacco. Yeah, he's looked solid. Solid enough that the utterly useless Dan Dierdorf proclaimed during the Titans-Ravens game that he was never going to call Joey Joe-Joe a rookie ever again after he threw that TD to Derrick Mason (underrated throughout his career, by the way) in the first quarter. I listened, and I don't think Dierdorf ever did use the word rookie in reference to Junior Flacco. He managed to stick with the term "young" whenever Joey Joe-Joe made a bad play. Well done, Dan Dierdorf.

(Speaking of the coverage of that game, I think a fantastic football game was almost ruined by both the commentary and the directing. Wait...I'm going to search for the technical director of that game and call him out. OK, I can't find his/her name. Whoever it is, if you're reading this, let me give you some constructive criticism. Instant replay should be your number one priority in between plays, not sideline shots. Chris Johnson's injury was a key storyline, but not to the point where we needed to see him in between every other 4th quarter play. Give us replays instead! One example: that play when Joey Joe-Joe almost stepped out of the endzone. Needed a replay there. Best of luck with your career. Keep working at it!)

Don't tell Dierdorf, but I'm re-instituting the label "rookie" for Junior Flacco for this game. If the game is close, you have to like Ben over Joey Joe-Joe in the fourth quarter. If (and I think this is likely) the Steelers open up a two score lead in the first half, you're looking at Junior Flacco needing to make some plays. Ultimately, I don't think he can do it at this point in his career. It's the Steelers by at least a TD.

There you go... Money Pi¢k$: picks you can wager actual money on. Now go do it!