Quick Thought: Foul Trouble Management
I didn't watch the Marquette-Louisville game for the same reason why I haven't posted in a while; I have lots of work these days. Fortunately, spring break awaits. I will try to make up for my lack of posts with much writing over the next week on through the tournament. Look for a final calculation of the Horn Companies Big East MPG Challenge, a final musing on seniors Scoop and KJ, and a running blog of round 1 of the NCAAs.
So anyway, really quickly on Marquette... I saw that the great Jae Crowder - a.k.a. my favorite non-Orange player on my favorite non-Orange team - got his fourth foul with 12:39 to go in the game. Marquette had cut the lead to four at that point. The generally brilliant and lovable (outside of West Virginia) Buzz Williams took Crowder out, and Louisville extended the lead before Crowder got back into the game only a couple minutes later.
Jim Boeheim manages these situations like a riverboat gambler. He'll leave guys in the game with three fouls late in the first half, and with four fouls late in the second half. He used to do this all the time with Arinze Uncle Aku, one of the more cerebral players to wear the Orange in recent years. To me, that strategy always makes mathematical sense. If you leave a guy in, especially a smart, veteran player like Crowder, you are ensuring that you get the most possible minutes out of that guy. If he plays eight more minutes and fouls out at the four minute mark, you've gotten one more minute out of him than if you keep him on the bench until you are inside the eight minute TV timeout and he never fouls out.
Now, you would like to have Crowder at the end of the game. In this case though, he went to the bench at the pivotal moment of the match. Marquette, a team that has played fantastically in the second half all season, never got within four again. It's kinda like the modern argument in baseball that says managers should use their best reliever in critical situations in the eighth or seventh innings as opposed to saving them for the final three outs of the game. Actually, since there is a clock in basketball, it makes more sense to roll the dice and leave your stud in the game. You're maximizing the portion of the game he plays in.
The next time an announcer questions Boeheim leaving a guy in the game with four fouls, please consider second-guessing the announcer. Smart gamblers know how to play the numbers.
Final note: Jae Crowder never did pick up that fifth foul.
So anyway, really quickly on Marquette... I saw that the great Jae Crowder - a.k.a. my favorite non-Orange player on my favorite non-Orange team - got his fourth foul with 12:39 to go in the game. Marquette had cut the lead to four at that point. The generally brilliant and lovable (outside of West Virginia) Buzz Williams took Crowder out, and Louisville extended the lead before Crowder got back into the game only a couple minutes later.
Jim Boeheim manages these situations like a riverboat gambler. He'll leave guys in the game with three fouls late in the first half, and with four fouls late in the second half. He used to do this all the time with Arinze Uncle Aku, one of the more cerebral players to wear the Orange in recent years. To me, that strategy always makes mathematical sense. If you leave a guy in, especially a smart, veteran player like Crowder, you are ensuring that you get the most possible minutes out of that guy. If he plays eight more minutes and fouls out at the four minute mark, you've gotten one more minute out of him than if you keep him on the bench until you are inside the eight minute TV timeout and he never fouls out.
Now, you would like to have Crowder at the end of the game. In this case though, he went to the bench at the pivotal moment of the match. Marquette, a team that has played fantastically in the second half all season, never got within four again. It's kinda like the modern argument in baseball that says managers should use their best reliever in critical situations in the eighth or seventh innings as opposed to saving them for the final three outs of the game. Actually, since there is a clock in basketball, it makes more sense to roll the dice and leave your stud in the game. You're maximizing the portion of the game he plays in.
The next time an announcer questions Boeheim leaving a guy in the game with four fouls, please consider second-guessing the announcer. Smart gamblers know how to play the numbers.
Final note: Jae Crowder never did pick up that fifth foul.
posted by Prof. A at 10:05 PM
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