Monday, January 23, 2012

Predaction: Notre Dame and Cincinnati

What can you say? Without New Melo, the Orange had no hope. Notre Dame went 8 for 16 from three-point range, and Melo is, as we all know, Syracuse's best perimeter defender. He's also an offensive machine, which would explain the season-low 58 points.

Okay, okay. Too much sarcasm. While Melo is not (yet) a dominating rebounder, he is a substantial physical presence in the middle of the zone. It's safe to say at least Jack Cooley's line would have looked different if New Melo had been in the game. But Syracuse's flaws were on full display Saturday evening. The Orange aren't a great rebounding team. And they aren't a great half-court offense team.

Well, that's a little harsh. The guards played horribly in South Bend, and when they play bad, the offense is going to look bad. Scoop Jardine didn't hit a field goal, and, if you take your anti-Scoop goggles off for one minute, you can make an argument he had the best game of the three guards. He had 7 of the team's 13 assists, and in a game with plenty of fouls called, he took four free-throws, more than Dion and Triche combined. Dion missed twice as many shots as Scoop (10 to 5). He was cold. But at least he was in the game. Triche, on the other hand, needed to step up, but did not.

Here's Triche's log in the critical first half:
11:47 - Brandon Triche Defensive Rebound.
11:43 - Brandon Triche missed Jumper.
8:12 - Brandon Triche Defensive Rebound.
8:04 - Brandon Triche missed Layup.
7:46 - Brandon Triche Steal.

That's it. Two rebounds that led to misses - his OWN misses. And one steal that, by the way, led to a Dion missed jumper. The Orange will have trouble if all three guards have a bad game.

Speaking of playing poorly, where have you gone, Josh Pace Redux? The rebounding has dropped off a bit. The scoring has dropped off a bit. And he's 0 for his last 9 from long range. That includes one brick Saturday, which was part of a 1 for 3 day from the field. Three shots is tied for his lowest mark of the season; the other came in 16 minutes of action in the blowout against Eastern Michigan. Look. We loved the dunk against Pitt, CJ, but you've got to focus on what you do best. Rebound. Defend. Let the game come to you. Compliment. W.W. Josh Pace D.?

A championship team doesn't lose two in a row. (Well, to be fair, I didn't look that up. I'm sure a championship team has lost two in a row before. Probably many times.) If Syracuse is as good as we hoped it might be before Saturday, it should take care of business in a very tough road game tonight. Cincy is playing like a tournament team. They are tough. They will fight you, especially if your name is Tu Holloway. But I still believe in the 2011-12 Orange. And I think Syracuse can still win without their fifth best player.

Prediction: Syracuse 80, Cincinnati 71

2 Comments:

Blogger Chris said...

I think I pretty much agree with everything here, especially the argument that we missed Melo, but we didn't lose because of his absence.

We lost because, well, our best players played poorly and Notre Dame played with the sort of discipline more talented teams (stocked with freshmen and sophomores) are generally incapable of replicating.

Notre Dame was incredibly good at slowing play, repeatedly lucky with freak bounces that led to multiple possession, and brilliant in their use of strategic fouls to slow momentum and disrupt our fast breaks. We never got going, and every time we threatened to -- especially in the second half -- ND got a break of some sort. So, you know: "So it goes."

Every loss is disappointing, but I'm shockingly comfortable with this one.

Finally, is it possible that Rakeem Christmas is a better interior defender than Keita? Christmas looked...I mean, not "good" but neither "terrible," and Keita looked bad. Period.

1/23/2012 5:18 PM  
Blogger Chris said...

Also: "complement." (OOOOOHHH! ZING!)

1/23/2012 5:21 PM  

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