The NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round
Last week against the spread: 1-3
Over/under: 3-1
Last weekend I dipped my toe into football gambling. I missed with my Lions pick (+11), but hit with the over in the Denver-Pittsburgh game (33.5). The Lions-Saints 4th quarter was much more interesting for gambling purposes then reality, so that was kinda fun. Still, going in I was SO certain that line was underrating the Lions. The lesson: there is no certainty in sports gambling, especially the NFL. It's just brutal.
Meanwhile, those who read the comments of last week's picks will have seen friend of the Sauna Moore's picks. He went 2-2 against the spread, and 1-3 on the over/unders. So if you take my over/unders and Moore's against the spread picks (assuming he gets them in), you can go 5-3 this week based on the information below! Guaranteed!
New Orleans @ San Francisco
Line: New Orleans by 3
O/U: 46.5
Hopefully the Denver-New England game will be close, but the most interesting games on paper to me are the Giants-Packers and this one. Let me put it this way; if this game were part of the fantasy regular season, Brees owners would anticipate a down week. I believe in the 49ers defense. I believe the Saints will struggle outdoors on the road. I believe this is the best head coaching match-up of this round. And I believe this game will be tight. Still, that San Francisco offense scares me. Again, thinking as a fantasy owner who had both Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter on his roster, I'd love to see Harbaugh try to take the Saints underrated defense by surprise with an unexpected amount of young Hunter. He needs to get the ball. Especially next year, if I keep him in fantasy.
Pick: New Orleans 22, San Francisco 21
Denver @ New England
Line: New England by 14
O/U: 50
Last week I was very close to making my third bet "Steelers -9." Luckily, I re-read my own words in this space: "Do not bet actual money against Timothy Tebow." Now, if you were going to bet against Timothy Tebow in this game, there is a very obvious parlay to make: New England and the over. New England has to beat Denver by more than just two touchdowns and the Patriots' horrible secondary is going to give up points to Denver. But you're not going to bet against Timothy Tebow. New England is the most overrated team in the playoffs right now. The only decent team they've faced in the last few months is...well...Denver. And yes, they clobbered Denver in Denver. And yes, this game at Gillette Stadium. But Von Miller is playing a little better now. New England's offensive line is a little banged up. As friend of the Sauna Dr. Paul always says, "My prescription for beating the Patriots: pressure on Tom Brady without blitzing, like the Giants did in the Super Bowl." I think the Broncos will do enough to stay within striking distance, though not enough to win.
Pick: New England 28, Denver 20
Houston @ Baltimore
Line: Baltimore by 8
O/U: 36.5
Yikes! I broke the old axiom "Never pick an underdog unless you think he can win outright" twice in a row. I'm tempted to do it again here, with that great Houston defense. But I think Baltimore is too well rounded. A defensive touchdown is in the works for the Ravens against T.J. Yates. The Houston running game can succeed, but they'll be playing from behind so that strength will be marginalized. Baltimore will score early and fairly often and make this a snoozer.
Pick: Baltimore 27, Houston 13
NY Giants @ Green Bay
Line: Green Bay by 8
O/U: 53
Long before the New York Giants made another late-season turn-around, they came within 3 points of beating the supposedly-invincible Packers. Well, now the Giants are playing well in all phases of the game. Eli is having his best season. Defenses don't know who to guard of all the Giants wide receivers. The Jacobs-Bradshaw tandem is healthy and fresh. And the New York defense has held teams to 14 points or less in three straight must-win games against the Jets, the Cowboys, and the Falcons. Plus, I haven't picked an upset yet.
Pick: New York 31, Green Bay 28
Over/under: 3-1
Last weekend I dipped my toe into football gambling. I missed with my Lions pick (+11), but hit with the over in the Denver-Pittsburgh game (33.5). The Lions-Saints 4th quarter was much more interesting for gambling purposes then reality, so that was kinda fun. Still, going in I was SO certain that line was underrating the Lions. The lesson: there is no certainty in sports gambling, especially the NFL. It's just brutal.
Meanwhile, those who read the comments of last week's picks will have seen friend of the Sauna Moore's picks. He went 2-2 against the spread, and 1-3 on the over/unders. So if you take my over/unders and Moore's against the spread picks (assuming he gets them in), you can go 5-3 this week based on the information below! Guaranteed!
New Orleans @ San Francisco
Line: New Orleans by 3
O/U: 46.5
Hopefully the Denver-New England game will be close, but the most interesting games on paper to me are the Giants-Packers and this one. Let me put it this way; if this game were part of the fantasy regular season, Brees owners would anticipate a down week. I believe in the 49ers defense. I believe the Saints will struggle outdoors on the road. I believe this is the best head coaching match-up of this round. And I believe this game will be tight. Still, that San Francisco offense scares me. Again, thinking as a fantasy owner who had both Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter on his roster, I'd love to see Harbaugh try to take the Saints underrated defense by surprise with an unexpected amount of young Hunter. He needs to get the ball. Especially next year, if I keep him in fantasy.
Pick: New Orleans 22, San Francisco 21
Denver @ New England
Line: New England by 14
O/U: 50
Last week I was very close to making my third bet "Steelers -9." Luckily, I re-read my own words in this space: "Do not bet actual money against Timothy Tebow." Now, if you were going to bet against Timothy Tebow in this game, there is a very obvious parlay to make: New England and the over. New England has to beat Denver by more than just two touchdowns and the Patriots' horrible secondary is going to give up points to Denver. But you're not going to bet against Timothy Tebow. New England is the most overrated team in the playoffs right now. The only decent team they've faced in the last few months is...well...Denver. And yes, they clobbered Denver in Denver. And yes, this game at Gillette Stadium. But Von Miller is playing a little better now. New England's offensive line is a little banged up. As friend of the Sauna Dr. Paul always says, "My prescription for beating the Patriots: pressure on Tom Brady without blitzing, like the Giants did in the Super Bowl." I think the Broncos will do enough to stay within striking distance, though not enough to win.
Pick: New England 28, Denver 20
Houston @ Baltimore
Line: Baltimore by 8
O/U: 36.5
Yikes! I broke the old axiom "Never pick an underdog unless you think he can win outright" twice in a row. I'm tempted to do it again here, with that great Houston defense. But I think Baltimore is too well rounded. A defensive touchdown is in the works for the Ravens against T.J. Yates. The Houston running game can succeed, but they'll be playing from behind so that strength will be marginalized. Baltimore will score early and fairly often and make this a snoozer.
Pick: Baltimore 27, Houston 13
NY Giants @ Green Bay
Line: Green Bay by 8
O/U: 53
Long before the New York Giants made another late-season turn-around, they came within 3 points of beating the supposedly-invincible Packers. Well, now the Giants are playing well in all phases of the game. Eli is having his best season. Defenses don't know who to guard of all the Giants wide receivers. The Jacobs-Bradshaw tandem is healthy and fresh. And the New York defense has held teams to 14 points or less in three straight must-win games against the Jets, the Cowboys, and the Falcons. Plus, I haven't picked an upset yet.
Pick: New York 31, Green Bay 28
posted by Prof. A at 1:49 PM
3 Comments:
After being called out for my performance last week, I feel compelled to do better...
New Orleans 24-17 (Before the playoffs began, I felt that New Orleans was playing the best football in the NFL. Nothing happened last week to dissuade me of that notion. New Orleans is the front-runner to win it all right now.)
New England 38-14 (I made the mistake of giving Denver no chance to win last week, and the Broncos bit me. It would be over-reactionary, though, to pick them to do something crazy today. The Pats opened up a big lead in a game that was close for a half earlier in the year in Denver. In New England today, the Pats dominate from beginning to end.)
Baltimore 27-17 (I agree with everything Paul said.)
Green Bay 34-24 (My Giants fan card should be revoked for even putting this down in writing, but there it is. I believe the Giants will keep it close for a while, but the Pack will ultimately win by 10. That said, if I were a Packers' fan, I'd be a little nervous that Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in 3 weeks. Just sayin'...)
Nice! We went a combined 2-6 against the spread! Hope we have a lot of contrarian readers...
Yes, it's become pretty clear to me that I don't know jack about football.
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