The NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round
It's time for my more or less annual NFL playoff predictions, in which, after watching hours of football every Sunday all fall, I go 2-2 or 1-3. You'd do well to against these predictions...
Cincinnati at Houston
Line: Houston by 3
O/U: 39
Houston was my initial gut pick. My confidence in the Texans has waned the more I've thought about how much they have crumbled from injuries down the stretch. I think a healthy AJ Green makes a huge difference for Cincinnati, and bleeds over into the QB match-up, where Andy Dalton is miles better than "Geheyeheyeheyehey!"-J Yates. The Texans won't come from behind to win, as Yates did against the Bengals four weeks ago (the last game Houston won). But even though Houston's defense isn't as strong as it was at full strength, it's still solid enough to contain the Bengals. I think Houston controls this game with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, leading Dalton to throw more picks than Yates.
Pick: Houston 21, Cincinnati 17
Detroit at New Orleans
Line: New Orleans by 11
O/U: 59
That over/under is shockingly high, but it's the line where I think the real value is. I'm so confident 11 is waaaayyyy too high, I might even make a wager for the first time all season. They might not prevail, but Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will keep Detroit in this game to the end. It will be a shootout, with the teams trading touchdowns throughout. And even if the Saints jump out to a big league, can't you see Detroit pulling off a late rally for a backdoor cover? Take the points to the bank! Actually, I'm very tempted to pick Detroit to win outright because, what the heck, no one is going to call me on it if I get it wrong anyway! But I don't have the guts...
Pick: New Orleans 42, Detroit 38
Atlanta at NY Giants
Line: New York by 3
O/U: 47
Here's where I'll pick the upset. New York is getting a bit too much respect at the moment, with a little dark-horse Super Bowl chatter, while Atlanta is getting too little. The Falcons do everything pretty well. They're usually not flashy, but they can be every once in a while on offense. Roddy White had a disappointing year by fantasy standards. In fact, I think fantasy is one reason people don't love the Falcons. Matt Ryan isn't a great fantasy QB. White was great but not elite as a fantasy WR. Julio-Julio-Julio Jones was all-or-nothing in his rookie season, fantasy-wise. And even Michael Turner isn't quite in that top tier of fantasy RBs, despite his fantastic season on the ground. Well, the fantasy season is over. The Giants are well-rounded too, but I think Atlanta is the better team, so I'll take the points and pick them to win.
Pick: Atlanta 24, New York 20
Pittsburgh at Denver
Line: Pittsburgh by 9
O/U: 33.5
Do not bet actual money against Timothy Tebow. He and the Broncos might have one or two more comebacks up their sleeves before this season is in the books. Still, it's just so hard to see how they'll stay in this game. The defense has fallen off since they were dominating during the winning streak. And defenses have figured out how to keep Tebow in the pocket. Pittsburgh is too well coached to miss a trick against the Broncos. The loss of Ryan Clark is a factor, but the Steelers D is still athletic enough to contain the option and defend Tebow's passes. Big Ben banged up doesn't concern me much. 9 points is a lot, but if you think the Steelers will dominate check out the scores in Denver's games against Buffalo, New England, and Detroit and role the dice with a Pittsburgh/Over parlay.
Pick: Pittsburgh 38, Denver 17
Cincinnati at Houston
Line: Houston by 3
O/U: 39
Houston was my initial gut pick. My confidence in the Texans has waned the more I've thought about how much they have crumbled from injuries down the stretch. I think a healthy AJ Green makes a huge difference for Cincinnati, and bleeds over into the QB match-up, where Andy Dalton is miles better than "Geheyeheyeheyehey!"-J Yates. The Texans won't come from behind to win, as Yates did against the Bengals four weeks ago (the last game Houston won). But even though Houston's defense isn't as strong as it was at full strength, it's still solid enough to contain the Bengals. I think Houston controls this game with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, leading Dalton to throw more picks than Yates.
Pick: Houston 21, Cincinnati 17
Detroit at New Orleans
Line: New Orleans by 11
O/U: 59
That over/under is shockingly high, but it's the line where I think the real value is. I'm so confident 11 is waaaayyyy too high, I might even make a wager for the first time all season. They might not prevail, but Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will keep Detroit in this game to the end. It will be a shootout, with the teams trading touchdowns throughout. And even if the Saints jump out to a big league, can't you see Detroit pulling off a late rally for a backdoor cover? Take the points to the bank! Actually, I'm very tempted to pick Detroit to win outright because, what the heck, no one is going to call me on it if I get it wrong anyway! But I don't have the guts...
Pick: New Orleans 42, Detroit 38
Atlanta at NY Giants
Line: New York by 3
O/U: 47
Here's where I'll pick the upset. New York is getting a bit too much respect at the moment, with a little dark-horse Super Bowl chatter, while Atlanta is getting too little. The Falcons do everything pretty well. They're usually not flashy, but they can be every once in a while on offense. Roddy White had a disappointing year by fantasy standards. In fact, I think fantasy is one reason people don't love the Falcons. Matt Ryan isn't a great fantasy QB. White was great but not elite as a fantasy WR. Julio-Julio-Julio Jones was all-or-nothing in his rookie season, fantasy-wise. And even Michael Turner isn't quite in that top tier of fantasy RBs, despite his fantastic season on the ground. Well, the fantasy season is over. The Giants are well-rounded too, but I think Atlanta is the better team, so I'll take the points and pick them to win.
Pick: Atlanta 24, New York 20
Pittsburgh at Denver
Line: Pittsburgh by 9
O/U: 33.5
Do not bet actual money against Timothy Tebow. He and the Broncos might have one or two more comebacks up their sleeves before this season is in the books. Still, it's just so hard to see how they'll stay in this game. The defense has fallen off since they were dominating during the winning streak. And defenses have figured out how to keep Tebow in the pocket. Pittsburgh is too well coached to miss a trick against the Broncos. The loss of Ryan Clark is a factor, but the Steelers D is still athletic enough to contain the option and defend Tebow's passes. Big Ben banged up doesn't concern me much. 9 points is a lot, but if you think the Steelers will dominate check out the scores in Denver's games against Buffalo, New England, and Detroit and role the dice with a Pittsburgh/Over parlay.
Pick: Pittsburgh 38, Denver 17
posted by Prof. A at 12:39 AM
2 Comments:
I think Denver scores 6 points, max, against the Steelers. The O/U scares me. I'd take the Steelers 24-6 with the under.
Rest of the picks:
Cincinnati 21-17 (toughest to pick)
Giants 27-21
Saints 42-21
Post a Comment
<< Home