Predaction: Wisconsin and Ohio State

Whew! What a game! Those who didn't have a dog in this fight were treated to a beautiful display of basketball in Boston. Even Wisconsin fans must have loved all but the ending. For Syracuse, it was a spectacular display of diverse offensive skills - their best game offensively in a long time, maybe even all year. Wisconsin's defense is as good as it gets, but they could not keep first Triche then Josh Pace-Redux then Dion out of the lane.

Oooooh, what a game from CJ! Those lefty floaters were PURE tonight, as Gus Johnson might have said if he were calling the game. It was a game Gus was born to call. Every basket deserved the emphasis he would have given it. Sadly, Gus is not with CBS. No matter. Verne and Bill, CBS's best tournament team, were up to the task. I can't wait to come across that game on ESPN Classic some day. Wow.

The seniors, too, got into the act. Scoop's two threes were massive. As big as his cojones. He nailed two late free throws as well. As the 50/50 free throw shooter says, "I'll make 'em when I need to."

To be sure, KJ almost ended his career with a spectacular choke, but when Wisconsin needed two points to banish Kris from college basketball forever, they couldn't get them. KJ played great defense all night. The whole team did. Wisconsin passes the ball amazingly, and tonight they worked it in and kicked it out with the precision of David Beckham. 14 of 27 from three? Sure, some of the shots were open, but they were earned open looks. The Orange made them earn those looks. Others, like most of Jordan Taylor's five made threes, were absurd. Were any of those 14 makes anything but a swish? Talk about pure...

Bo Ryan's game plan was only as good as Wisconsin could shoot, and tonight they shot like Butch and Sundance. In fact, the Badgers were over matched. They could not keep up with SU's offensive athleticism. On the other end, Ryan's strategy featured one glaring head-scratcher. It reminded me... there was one NBA video game that I ever got heavily into - one of the NBA Lives from the late 90s. In the coaching strategy menu, you could check a box for "crash the boards." If you checked it, most of your guys would look for the offensive rebound rather than immediately sprint to get back on defense. Tonight Bo Ryan emphatically did NOT check that box. The Badgers were committed to their half court defense, and that proved to be a crucial mistake. They tied Syracuse in rebounding for the game at 23, a category they had to win. Syracuse got a nice effort from Baye Moussa Keita (which, literally translated, means "he who steps up") and a massive effort from CJ. Those two grabbed two and three offensive rebounds, and five and seven total rebounds, respectively.

Now Ohio State awaits. The Buckeyes also have a fantastic point guard, although sophomore Aaron Craft can be a bit more turnover prone then the record setting (assists-to-turnover ratio) Taylor. They also have Jared Sullinger, who will test Christmas and Keita. The bigs have to stay out of foul trouble. The zone in general must frustrate the passing lanes and deny Sullinger the ball as much as possible. If Ohio State is settling for jumpers, as Wisconsin did tonight, the Orange have a chance. Now we will see how much the Orange truly miss Fab Melo.

When Syracuse drew Ohio State in their region, I was pleased. I thought the Buckeyes, with that glaring number seven in the loss column, were pretenders, coasting on the hype they had coming into the season. I don't think Sullinger is an all-timer - Kansas's Thomas Robinson is a better version of his type of player - although he has been an offensive beast at times in this tournament. Once Melo went out, though, I changed my mind. But you have to beat the best to be the best, they say. The NCAA tournament doesn't quite work that way, but no road to the Final Four is easy.

The Buckeyes have the edge. They are coming to the battle with a loaded gun that is firing well. Syracuse is playing excellent basketball too, so it will be close. When the bracket was released I said I would be disappointed if Syracuse didn't make the Final Four. After Melo was ruled out, I said the Elite Eight would be a successful run. I think this has been a successful run. It included at least one game we will remember forever. Sadly, as I am really starting to love the eclectic mix of talent on the '11-'12 SU basketball team, it will end on Saturday.

Prediction: Ohio State 70, Syracuse 66

SU-Wisconsin

I am writing this from campus. The bells of Crouse Chapel are playing the SU fight song right now.

Down, Down the field goes old Syracuse,
Just see those backs hit the line and go thru';
Down, down the field they go marching,
Fighting for the Orange staunch and true.
Rah! Rah! Rah!
Vict'ry's in sight for old Syr-a-cuse,
Each loyal son knows she ne'er more will lose,
For we'll fight, yes, we'll fight, and with all our might
For the glory of old Syracuse.

I like to sing "Down, down the court..." and "Just see those shots hit the glass and go through..."

Are you scared for tonight's game? You should be. Syracuse wins games easily when it forces turnovers. Wisconsin has one of the least turnover-prone point guards in the country. Unlike Kansas State, which suffered from turnovers all year, the Badgers are disciplined. And they are slow. Remember how Notre Dame beat us by slowing down the game? Wisconsin will go man-to-man, not zone like Cincinnati implemented in their win, but it will be a tough man-to-man.

The only hope for an easy SU win is if the Orange are hot from three-point range. But how often has that happened?

No, this game will come down to the wire. There I like SU's chances. I believe in their ability to attack the rim when it counts, whether it's Dion or Kris or Scoop or Triche. The one good thing about Wisconsin is, unless they, too, get hotter than they normally are from deep, they are incapable of running away with the game. It will be tight, and SU has experience in tight games.

We will see...

NCAAs Day 2: Walking Commentary

It's not a running commentary. It's not even a jogging commentary. After yesterday's emotional roller coaster of an SU game, as well as the lack of madness (no buzzer beaters or OTs and only two upsets), I'm not expecting to go nuts with the updates today. But who knows? I tend to be a fast walker...


Relive last year's First Round:
Day 1
Day 2
----------------------------------------------------------

12:16 - Hey! I'm still watching... I'm also rooting against Notre Dame, as much because they beat Syracuse this year as because they are the higher seed. I also like to see as much Tu Holloway as I can. Good games this evening. It salvaged the first round and then some! We'll always remember this as the year two 2-seeds went down. Will a 15-seed make the sweet 16 for the first time (without looking that up, I believe that is true)? I'd go with Norfolk State if I had to choose one.

9:45 - Duke played like garbage. They came in cold and remained cold. Lehigh played solid enough to take advantage. Norfolk State, on the other hand, played out of their minds against a Missouri team that did show up to play.

9:44 - Cousin Eric: "Lehigh's season highlight before today: being up by three at the half against Michigan State."

9:37 - A DOUBLE TWO-SEED UPSET! A DOUBLE TWO-SEED UPSET, ALL THE WAY ACROSS! WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!?!

9:30 - Duke just never heated up. This will be a shockingly low point total against a 15-seed Patriot League team.

9:29 - Every Duke fan knew this team was extremely flawed, but... wow. Didn't see this coming. 

9:28 - Ohio! Fear the MAC. Perpetually under-seeded.

9:14 - Part of me is pulling for Lehigh over Duke. That's how much I love upsets. That said, intentional foul?!?!

8:58 - Cousin Eric: "Duke's strategy of stopping them and shooting the three isn't working on a number of levels... Two to be exact."

7:07 - Doc just reminded me of one of his best ideas. You need all the T-shirts of the underdogs and a few good friends. During the first round of the tournament, head to a crowded sports bar in a major city. For each set of games, everyone gets to put on one of the underdog's T-shirts. Fast-forward to a game like Norfolk State - how awesome would it be to be wearing a Norfolk State shirt throughout that game?

6:55 - Oho! The road is beckoning for the Golden Eagles...

6:52 - Wouldn't it be hilarious if, after pulling for Norfolk State and enjoying Missouri's defeat, all the Kansas fans in Omaha have to suffer through a nail-biter against Detroit? Here's hoping...

6:51 - N-S-U! N-S-U! Break out the red highlighter folks! A giant has fallen!

6:47 - Well, maybe he's not Irish. 0-2 from the line there, leaving life in Missouri. Down by 2, 2.6 seconds to go. Either a buzzer beater, OT, or a buster here. It's what we've been waiting for.

6:46 - O'Quinn! He must be Irish... Anyway, he's wearing green.

6:40 - N-S-U! N-S-U! I'm on my feet with Omaha, and Norfolk State fans around the world...

5:05 - Ugh. Bonnies had the kick-out but tried the 2-point put-back when they needed a three. When will the bracket buster come? Can we get at least one 1-4 seed out, please? Just one? Is that too much to ask? UNC pulling away at half, but Norfolk State with a slight edge over Missouri... Hmmm...

4:05 - ACC is getting clobbered. And just saw that John Henson is out today. I wouldn't worry, UNC fans; Vermont hasn't pulled off any NCAA upsets that I can remember. By the way, you can follow my very funny Cousin Eric on twitter, @E_A_20.

3:40 - Jim Nantz blesses this Creigton-FSU finish, the closest so far: "March Madness has arrived here in Greensboro!" 1 point lead for the Blue Jays with 8.7 seconds to go. Lots of bricks from the free throw line have kept Alabama in it.

3:19 - Ian Eagle jokes, "Three Canadians on this St. Bonaventure roster!" Oh wait, he's not joking?! Whoops! Sorry Canada! And Kris Joseph.

3:17 - Cousin Eric: "I'm pretty sure Bonna's best player has completed 9 hours of course work, total. How the F is Melo not eligible?"

3:10 - Cousin Eric (graduate of SUNY Geneseo, not in the tournament) texting in: "Biggest underdog today - SBU cheerleaders vs. FSU cheerleaders."

3:07 - Hitler's brackets are busted with the Fab Melo news. (You can imagine where it goes from here...)

2:19 - If I ever take part in a flash mob that builds a sneaker out of glow-in-the-dark balloons, just kill me. If that ever happens in real life, Karl Marx is going to crawl out of his grave and, I dunno, go nuts or something. Anyway, he wouldn't like it.

2:16 - Yesss... Every game is within six, and the Cincy-Texas game is coming down to the wire. Yancey just hit two big buckets, including a "I don't care what anyone thinks about me taking this shot, I'm going to F'ing bury it" 18-footer. That guy is a MAN. He could play on the Buffalo D-Line.

1:46 - Googling to figure out if Yancey Gates is related to Antonio Gates, or if they're just the same person. Things are looking good for the Big East, and even better for my loyalties. UConn and West Virginia out. Georgetown only favored by +3.5 (!) against Belmont. Marquette looking awesome. Syracuse setting themselves up as the underdogs.

12:50 - GF Taylor has a good analysis of that Bud Light Pitbull commercial. "So...the women open the beers, and all of a sudden they'll do whatever Pitbull wants them to do?" Fair. Although I'm distracted by the lyrics to the song. I don't speak Spanish, but I believe they're singing, "I would like some Taco Bell."

12:40 - Off we go! If March Madness has taught us one thing over the years it's that as soon as you let your guard down that's when things go nuts. (Okay, maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.) I do have some high hopes for shockers today. Georgetown has lost two straight in the first round, and Belmont almost beat Duke back in 2008. I'm expecting Ohio, out of the tough MAC, to hang with Michigan. Detroit's Ray McCallum will be a pest for Kansas, another team that has gone home early more than its share of times. And most of all, St. Bonaventure, my cousin's alma mater, who I think WILL BEAT Florida State! Why? Because my cousin went there, and because I own two Bonnie hats and I want to wear them around all weekend! Go Bonnies!

NCAAs Day 1: Jogging Commentary

 It's not a running commentary. It's a jogging commentary. I'll scatter my updates throughout the day, listed from newest at the top to oldest at the bottom. As games finish, look for more posts. If the games are duds, my posts will be slim to West Virginia (that is, nil). The only way to tell if I've posted again - refresh your browser!

Off we go with the greatest weekend in sports!

Relive last year's First Round:
Day 1
Day 2
----------------------------------------------------------

11:40 - What? You still here? Yeah, me too. Still hoping for that classic upset or buzzer beater moment. Colorado is beating UNLV by nine at half, and I'm thinking the Rebels have a run in them, but you're excused if you want to head to bed early. All in all, not a particularly memorable opening day. Besides the SU game, the most exciting game of the day was the upset, VCU over Wichita State. Some of the other games were fun to watch for a while before the underdog faded: Colorado State, Davidson, The Beach. Hopefully tomorrow will be madder, and hopefully the lack of upsets this round will make for a more interesting Saturday. Except for Syracuse. A less interesting Saturday would make everyone feel a lot better. C'mon guys, is that too much to ask?

9:47 - UConn is playing, which means its time for my annual rant against pulling for teams just because they're in the same conference as you. Yes, I will take some satisfaction if the Big East does well overall. But that doesn't mean I should compromise my passionate hatred of UConn and West Virginia just because it will somehow, in some incredibly indirect way, benefit Syracuse. I think that benefit of conference prestige is negligible. And the Big East will look fine tomorrow even without West Virginia and, hopefully, UConn. The only brightside of a UConn win is I think they are more talented than Iowa State and more likely to have a chance against Kentucky, another team I hate. But the bottom line is, if you hate a team, hate them no matter what!

9:25 - See what I mean? It's not the same when Wichita State loses to bust your bracket as it would be if, say, Vanderbilt or Louisville lost. Shaka Smart, though. Wow. VCU looks good again. Now attention turns to the Jackrabbits and the Bears...

9:17 - In any event, this is a fantastic game. Big shots both ways. They just traded threes, as VCU reclaims its first lost lead of the second half.

9:14 - I'm a little uncertain who to pull for in the Wichita St - VCU game. They're both mid-majors. Theoretically the pull for the underdog rule should come into effect, but I think Wichita State is a very good team that can create problems for a lot of big teams in the bracket. It'd be nice if they stuck around. Yeah, I'm pulling for the Shockers to not be shocked. 

 9:13 - And we're back! I needed an extended break after that experience. I've calmed down, spent some time outside, eaten some Five Guys, and now I'm back in front of the TV.

7:30 - No upsets. Lame. And surprising. I thought, given the lack of dominating teams, there might be more chaos this year. Still the evening session and all of tomorrow for the Madness to kick in.

5:47 - Bring on Kansas State! They won't be as tough as the Bulldogs...

5:44 - Notable lines: James Southerland - 15 pts, 7 rbs, 3-5 threes. Rakeem Christmas - 7 rbs. Kris Joseph - 12 pts, 6-7 FTs, 0-5 threes, 8 rbs. Scoop Jardine - 11 pts, 7 ast, 2 stl, 4-4 FTs.

5:42 - Hats off to UNC-Asheville. You deserved a higher seed.

5:38 - Triche to the line up by three, 2 shots. And my dad is leaving the building. He's got a 5:45 dinner reservation, what can I say? Estonians are a punctual people.

5:31 - "I'll make 'em when it matters." -Scoop Jardine on free throw shooting. He forgot to add that he'll miss the first but get it back after a lane violation.

5:29 - GF Taylor points out, "This is the first time all year they haven't talked about how much weight Fab has lost." Another silver lining! SU by four with the ball, 1:30 to go. I'll take it!

5:27 - Valid.  "@hyatt8 At YMCA during halftime 8 yr old says "SU is losing because Fab Melo doesn't go to SCHOOL!" Well said my man. Well said."

5:20 - Great steal by Southerland, leaving his man to make the play. Then he hits a three at the other end off a nice penetrate and dish by Dion. SU by eight. Stat of the day: I went thirty-four minutes without breathing.

5:18 - Horrible three from Scoop there, but SU gets the rebound on the other end. Asheville is cold.

5:13 - I take it back. I'd trade anyone on Syracuse for Crowder and DJO, except Kris Joseph. Love that man. SU by four with KJ heading to the line for one.

5:08 - I almost wrote, "At least Scoop is having a good game," but I didn't want to jinx it.

5:06  - James Southerland disagrees with us. Big shot. SU by two, 9:20 to play.

5:01 - What the heck happened to our vaunted 2-3 zone? How is UNC-Asheville scoring this many points? Who will provide the answers to my questions? I think we need to give up all but the most open three-point shots. We need to pound it to the basket where our height and athleticism can dominate, and get our points in the paint and from the free throw line. @erik_rome agrees with me.

4:52 - Harvard-Vanderbilt tipping off. I always say, Syracuse is the Harvard of Syracuse.

4:51 - Couple Scoop layups and Syracuse has the lead. Can we get some Asheville panic, please?

4:48 - Dad on that missed goal tend followed by 1-2 from the line. "That's the break we needed. Game over."

4:37 - I would trade anyone on Syracuse for Jae Crowder or Dennis Johnson-Odom right now. Gamers.

4:33 - Larry Anderson in the lineup for The Beach! Look out New Mexico... I predict that will be the first upset of the day. THE FIRST UPSET OF THE DAY.

4:23 - Trust in Jim. Adjustments will be made. The run will come. The run will come.

4:18 - Brandon Triche is a great rebounding guard. He's got to shave a few milliseconds off his lay-up release though.


4:15 - Free Throw shooting.

4:09 - Bruce Hornsby's son plays for Asheville?!? We're screwed. Also, 15 fouls called already in this game. Keita, KJ, and CJ each have two.

4:06 - Tough series there after the head-scratcher goal tend. Southerland draws a phantom foul preventing him from making a wide open layup. He misses the front of a 1-and-1. Christmas misses the front end of a 1-and-1. Dion misses a jumper leading to an easy fast break for the Bulldogs. Asheville by 5.

3:58 - Goal tending?! Keita blocked him at the release! Sir! Can we see that again please, sir!

3:53 - Don't shoot CJ! Give it back to Dion... Lots of momentum for the Bulldogs, but it evaporates quickly; no sign of panic from the Orange. The same can't be said of their fans... This is one of those cases where it might be better that this game isn't being played in the dome. SU by 1.

3:50 - And Keita loping down the floor to make a nice block on a breakaway dunk attempt, fouling hard. Then on the other end a catch and bucket. Baye came to play!

3:48 - Beautiful passing by the Orange, including Baye Keita. Incidentally, Baye Moussa Keita, literally translated, means "able replacement for ineligible starter."

3:37 - From the Sports Sauna: SU will only lose "if the refs call the game extremely tight, sending UNC-Asheville to the line where their excellent shooting percentage will help them and their lack of a player over 6'5" won't hurt them." Uh oh.

3:35 - According to CBS's UNC-Asheville bio, the mascot bulldog has undergone three name changes and is currently named, "Rocky." What do you think the first two names were? I'm betting something offensive, like "Darkie" or "Big Balls."

3:31 - Cook the bulldogs.

3:30 - I like to imagine that somewhere there is an SU fan who had a really busy week. "Wait... how come Melo isn't starting?" (Listening.) "WhaaaAAAAAH??? OH NO!!!!"

3:28 - No surprises so far. Let's hope that continues for a little while longer.

3:20 - This Davidson-Louisville game is a classic missed opportunity snoozer. Davidson hit their first 2 threes and missed their next 13. Louisville is not playing great but lead by 12.

2:59 - Marquette is playing! I love watching Marquette. For some reason I don't hold their tournament win over the Orange last year against them. Very happy that they aren't in SU's region so I can root for them all-out this year.

2:54 - Our first key blown call of the tournament! Down four with under six seconds to go, Southern Miss forced a turnover on the baseline, but the referee standing right there called it out on the Golden Eagles. Tough call. Kansas State awaits Syracuse if the Orange make the second round.

2:48 - Wisconsin's Ryan Evans has a fantastic haircut.

2:36 - It's an annual Round 1, first day tradition: my hunt through the house for a green or blue highlighter to mark correct picks on my brackets with. I have to do it by hand, because its satisfying. And the colors have to be blue or green for correct, and pink for incorrect, because it looks best. Had to settle for a weird green gel stick to mark the Murray State result. I'm not happy about it. But now I'm committed to use it the rest of the way. Another rule is you stick with the same marker throughout the tournament.

2:08 -  Prediction! Rodney McGruder will have the ball late with the Wildcats trailing, but the clock will expire before he gets the shot off. Here's why.

2:05 - Murray State is in control as Colorado State can't hit a bucket to catch up. Now I'm watching Southern Miss-Kansas State. Like most Orange fans, I'm much more afraid of K-State with their supposed rebounding ability. Also, I think Southern Miss is garbage. But if K-State can't control this game, maybe they, too, are garbage? Meanwhile, Davidson, Alma Mater of Steph Curry and friend of the Sauna, Davs, is leading Louisville right now midway through the first half. I would love Kyle Kuric's college career to come to an end today.

1:50 - I'm enjoying Shane Ryan's live blog over on Grantland. He's funnier and a better writer than me.  But only one of us has a direct link on Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician!

1:45 -  For my dream round 1 viewing experience, I'd watch the games with Dick Vitale, Chuck Klosterman, Bill Simmons, Barack Obama, and my buddy and oldest tournament-watching mate, Dr. Paul. Also, around 2:30 the two guys from the Sonic commercial would show up with a bunch of food.

1:30 - A Racer just got walloped on the schnoz - second player to be bloodied in the game. Rafferty thinks the new rules demand a flagrant, but thankfully the refs decide you don't get a foul if your elbow is run into by another dude's nose.

1:27 - My twitter feed is blowing up with the news that Mario Williams signed with the Bills. Good times! Hmmm...I wonder if he could play the 5 in the 2-3 zone... Can Ralph Wilson loan him his chopper to fly down to Pittsburgh?

1:00 - 10 assists on 11 made shots in the Colorado St-Murray St game. This is great basketball. Rams by 1 at the half.

12:42 - Len Elmore (calling So. Miss-K-State), on the other hand, is my least favorite color commentator in the bracket. It always feels like everything he says is a negative point. And, goody, he's calling the SU game! I'm sure he'll have some thoughts on the program's current state. Fortunately Reggie Miller is in the booth with him so he'll only talk half as much as he normally would.

12:36 - Good game so far! Pierce Hornung rebounding! Racers passing beautifully to guys cutting to the three-point line! Rafferty in fine form!

12:26 - I love the black paint, or decals, or whatever they do to "neutralize" the courts with that black border. I think it looks really cool. I hope they keep doing it every year so we all develop an unconscious pleasurable reaction when we see the shiny blackness with the blue court name and city name at the baselines.

12:15 - Bill Raferty and Gentle Verne Lundquist tip us off in Louisville for Murray St-Colorado St. Since the Racers are a mid-major, I'll be rooting for them over the upset. My rooting interests in non-SU games: 1.) That the game is close, 2.) That the mid-majors win, and 3.) That the underdogs win.


Speaking of Raf, with Gus Johnson leaving CBS this year, Bill Rafferty is the only destination commentator left in the bracket. If no games are close, I'll listen to his game. Verne is classic, too.

12:14pm - Just flipped to TruTV, which has some sort of rival pre-game show. And there is HAAAAAAAK! Somewhere Michael Lee is muttering to himself, "I woulda made that shot..."

noon - Sing it with me... "Bah-bah bah bah bum BAAAAHHH bah-bah bum. BAHHHHHHH! BAH-BAH-BAH!"


11:27am - I just found out I was totally wrong on my thinking about the Melo loss! Turns out we DON'T have to play 4-on-5 throughout the tournament! This is MUCH less of a problem than I thought!

Bracket of Integrity

Quick thoughts on my bracket picks...

FIRST ROUND

South
1. Kentucky over 16. Western Kentucky
9. UConn over 8. Iowa St
I'm not getting sucked in by the UConn brand. I just think UConn has way more talent than the Cyclones.
5. Wichita St. over 12. VCU
4. Indiana over 13. New Mexico St.
6. UNLV over 11. Colorado
If we learned anything tonight from USF's victory it's that the Pac-12 is garbage.
3. Baylor over 14. South Dakota St.
10. Xavier over 7. Notre Dame
Give me Xavier stud Tu Holloway over anything the Irish can throw out there.
2. Duke over 15. Lehigh

West
1. Michigan St. over 16. LIU Brooklyn
8. Memphis over 9. Saint Louis
Saint Louis coach Rick Majerus is the bigger name but Josh Pastner is the better coach.
5. New Mexico over 12. Long Beach State
I really wanted to pick Long Beach State, with their brilliant guard Casper Ware, but the 49ers might be without another senior, Larry Anderson, their second leading scorer.
4. Louisville over 13. Davidson
Sorry to my Davidson alumni friends; Steph Curry doesn't live here anymore.
5. Murray St. over Colorado St.
3. Marquette over 14. BYU
7. Florida over 10. Virginia
2. Missouri over 15. Norfolk St.

East
1. Syracuse over 16. UNC-Asheville
We're all having nightmares about this game up in Syracuse, but ultimately it won't be close.
8. Kansas St. over 9. Southern Miss
12. Harvard over 5. Vanderbilt
Yeah, I'm pulling the trigger on this upset, which would be the fourth straight for Vanderbilt. Some supposedly "hot" teams stay hot in the tournament. Others fold. I'm thinking the Commodores go cold against Ivy League style.
4. Wisconsin over 13. Montana
6. Cincinnati over 11. Texas
3. Florida St. over 14. Saint Bonaventure
In another bracket I'm taking the Bonnies to the Elite Eight, mostly because my favorite cousin, Brian, was a team manager as an undergrad at St. Bonaventure. Like Vanderbilt, Florida State could cool off too, but I think they'll be too much for the Bonnies. I'll get as much use as I can out of my two St. Bonaventure hats until then.
7. Gonzaga over 10. West Virginia
2. Ohio State over 15. Loyola (MD)

Midwest
1. North Carolina over 16. Vermont
8. Creighton over 9. Alabama
In most years I try to split my 8-9 picks among the half dozen or so brackets I fill out. This year I think I have Creighton advancing every single time. North Carolina and the nation will remember Doug McDermott's name before this tournament is said and done.
12. South Florida over 5. Temple
I like the 12-seed upset when it is a major conference team. I've also loved USF's coach, Stan Heath, since his MAC days at Kent State.
13. Ohio over 4. Michigan
Speaking of the MAC, I believe their conference is perennially underrated in the tournament. These teams are almost as good as the Missouri Valley Conference, home of Wichita St. and Creighton but they haven't been seeded as well in recent years. I think Michigan fans will, at least for a day, curse Ohio more thank the big state school.
11. NC State over 6. San Diego St.
I don't love NC State's talent, but I think they're the 11-seed that makes the second round.
3. Georgetown over 14. Belmont
7. Saint Mary's over 10. Purdue
2. Kansas over 15. Detroit
Typical for Kansas, this will be closer than expected. Detroit sophomore point guard Ray McCallum is a stud who will attack the paint with abandon. If his teammates can get hot from outside, Detroit could pull off a shocker. But I'll wait until the next time Detroit and McCallum dance to pick them to advance.

SECOND ROUND

South 
1. Kentucky over 8. UConn
5. Wichita St. over 4. Indiana
This has been a great season for Indiana, but I think they are a year away from really being a team to fear. Wichita St., on the other hand, has all the characteristics of a mid-major Cinderella: the token 7-footer, the strong shooting, and the next-big-thing head coach.
3. Baylor over 6. UNLV
2. Duke over 7. Xavier

West
1. Michigan St. over 8. Memphis
5. New Mexico over 4. Louisville
Louisville is a hot-and-cold, all-or-nothing team. New Mexico is steady and solid and will catch the Cardinals on a cold day.
3. Marquette over 6. Murray St.
7. Florida over 2. Missouri
I don't love this pick. But Florida can get hot and Billy Donovan, who 10 years ago I thought was all recruiter and no Xs and Os, has become a fantastic game coach. Marcus Denmon of Missouri is a great player, but I just don't buy the Tigers' package. In the 21st century NCAA starting four seniors is a sign of limited talent.

East
1. Syracuse over 8. Kansas State
Yeah, I know. Kansas State will kill the Orange on the boards. Guess what? SU has been losing the rebounding battle all year and still winning games. Aside from a handful of offensive rebound put-backs, how is Kansas State going to score? SU survives and advances.
4. Wisconsin over 12. Harvard
6. Cincinnati over 3. Florida State
Two great defensive teams clash here. Both are also streaky from outside. The difference is Yancey Gates for Cincy, who will outplay the Seminoles' two senior big men.
2. Ohio State over 7. Gonzaga

Midwest
1. North Carolina over 8. Creighton
12. South Florida over 13. Ohio
3. Georgetown over 11. NC State
7. Saint Mary's over 2. Kansas
Matthew Dellavedova. Pronounced like its spelled.

SWEET SIXTEEN

South
1. Kentucky over 5. Wichita State
3. Baylor over 2. Duke
Perry Jones III will destroy this hapless Duke defense.

West
5. New Mexico over 1. Michigan State
The Spartans are missing two players from their regular rotation. That will catch up to them in Phoenix.
3. Marquette over 7. Florida

East
1. Syracuse over 4. Wisconsin
Notre Dame caused SU problems with its slow-down style, and they'll look like road runners compared to Bo Ryan's Badgers. But by the same token, Wisconsin is incapable of running away from the Orange. SU's experience in close games, and it's depth of players who can attack the rim and get to the line in late-game situations will put them over the top.
2. Ohio State over 6. Cincinnati

Midwest
1. North Carolina over 12. South Florida
7. Saint Mary's over 3. Georgetown
The Hoyas should have played a pre-season tournament in Australia instead of China to prep for the 5 Aussies on Saint Mary's. I was surprised the Gaels got the same seed as fellow WCC conference members Gonzaga, as Saint Mary's was a notch better this year.

ELITE EIGHT

1. Kentucky over 3. Baylor
Too much talent, and while Calipari's recent tournament record has been spotty, he's made the Final Four twice before and will do so again out of a relatively easy region.
3. Marquette over 5. New Mexico
I love the Golden Eagles. I love Jae Crowder. I love Dennis Johnson-Odom. I love Buzz Williams. These guys will have at least two come-from-behind wins en route to the Final Four. 
2. Ohio State over 1. Syracuse
This feels about right. Jared Sullinger and his talented teammates will pick SU's Melo-less defense apart. SU will hang in the game until the end, but will trail most of the way and fall short.
1. North Carolina over 7. Saint Mary's
If Roy Williams and the Tar Heels haven't blown a lead and a game by now, they'll be the team to beat.

FINAL FOUR

1. Kentucky over 3. Marquette
Finally, the Crowder-DJO show comes to an end against the defense and talent of the Wildcats.
1. North Carolina over 2. Ohio State
Zeller will handle Sullinger while Barnes, Henson, and company pile on the points. The Tar Heels win big.

CHAMPIONSHIP
1. North Carolina over 1. Kentucky
A Duke fan's nightmare come true. I hate both teams, but I think they are the best two in the bracket. Anthony Davis is the greatest unibrowed player in the tournament, but North Carolina actually has more talent than Kentucky. Roy Williams has done it before. John Calipari hasn't sealed the deal. Although the run won't be dominant, and Tar Heel fans will have multiple heart attacks along the way, Roy will get it done.

The Orange Apologist: Finding the Silver Lining

There are two types of people in the world, both of which are portrayed brilliantly in the most dynamic character in film history, Johnny in Tommy Wiseau's The Room.

The first type of person is the kind of guy who, when confronted with one of those times in life when terrible circumstances snowball, lashes out in anger, screaming, "You're tearing me apart!" The second type of person, in a similar circumstance, laughs it off, chuckling, "Don't worry about it!" Again, the character Johnny captures both types of people, encapsulating all of the human experience in a 99 minute film. Another thing that is great about the film is its portrayal of a bunch of dudes in tuxedos tossing a football around. But, anyway...

Sports fans experience these types of swings all the time, from game to game. Is it worse for Syracuse basketball fans? Well, the winters put us all on edge, but I'd guess SU's ups and downs are closer to par for the fan course than it sometimes feels.* Certainly this latest blow was pretty devastating. The Orange have lost the Big East defensive player of the year, the heart of their fantastic zone defense, and a center who can probably hang with every other big man in the bracket.

Things look pretty bleak. And now you're asking, can the Orange salvage anything from this year's tournament? Well, you've come to the right place. My glasses are as Orange-tinted as anyone's. Here are eight thoughts that might make Orange fans feel a little better about the Melo debacle.

1. We probably weren't going to win the title anyway. As 31-2 1-seeds go, this was a pretty flawed bunch. With or without Melo, if this Syracuse team wins the next six games, it would be the strangest roster to take the title in my memory. There just isn't a dominant player on the team - no single guy who can take the tournament by storm. Sure, with Melo the defense was superb. But in my memory I can't think of a title winner without one clear stud.
2. The bar for SU's 2012 tournament to be considered successful has been lowered. With Melo still on the team, if SU doesn't make the Final Four, it's a failed season. Now Syracuse fans feel the season is lost, but if SU fights gamely to the Elite Eight most will agree the Orange did all right.
3. The media has to toss their expectations for SU out the window. Along the same lines, the media storyline will now be, "SU isn't playing at full strength." Every win will get the "backs to the wall" positive spin, no matter how tough it is for the Orange.
4. The mood in town has bottomed out. I dropped by campus this afternoon, and I wasn't there 30 seconds before I overheard a woman exclaim, "Well, the basketball season is over!" Most years the day after SU's last game in the tournament is the worst day of the year. This year, the worst day of the year was today. (Well, unless SU loses Thursday, which I think could only happen if the refs call the game extremely tight, sending UNC-Asheville to the line where their excellent shooting percentage will help them and their lack of a player over 6'5" won't hurt them.)
5. There aren't many dominant centers in the East Region. The 1-seed helps. SU could survive their corner of the bracket with a small lineup. Florida St wins with defense and guard play. Wisconsin wins with a slow-down style and efficient but not explosive offense from their guards and forwards. Vanderbilt's John Jenkins averages almost 20 ppg because he hits almost 4 threes per game. Okay, there is 6'9" Jared Sullinger, Ohio State's All-American. I had been thinking Ohio State was vulnerable to the SU zone, but losing Melo changes that. SU will just have to root for an upset on the other side of the bracket. There's also Cincinnati, and Yancey Gates, but they beat SU with Melo in the lineup anyway.
6. Rakeem Christmas isn't awful. And Baye Keita, even though it feels like he hasn't make an inch of progress this season, is a smart defender who plays with a ton of energy. The Orange have two other guys who can play the position. Plus, this could be a great opportunity for Christmas to take a big step forward.
7. SU will still be favored  until the second weekend, at least. UNC-Asheville will come in with plenty of belief, but it will still take a miracle for them to win. Kansas State can take advantage of SU's weakness on the boards, but the Wildcats will struggle to shoot against the zone. Southern Miss, 297th in the nation in assists, doesn't pass well enough to beat the SU defense. By the second weekend, those centers could start to build some momentum.
8. The 2011-12 Syracuse Orange have had a bunker in, head down, one game at a time mentality all year long. From Bernie Fine, to the Melo prequel, to the drug violations story, there have been endless distractions swirling around this season. But the Orange have just kept winning. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, Brandon Triche...these are upperclassmen who are usually pretty unflappable. I'm sure they still believe the Orange can make a run. In both of the losses the Orange faced massive deficits, only to make the game close down the stretch. They won't give up.

Don't give up. Failure is likely, but that's the stuff of all great stories.


*Spoiled Yankee fans excluded.

Melo Fallout: The Blame Game

Who's to blame for Fab Melo missing the tournament?

From least to most...

(P.S. I'm assuming this is an academic issue, although most of these points still hold if Fab was caught smoking pot under the dome bleachers.)

The Fans - Tragedies like this always force us to put sports in perspective. Fab might be ineligible for the tournament, but it's time for us all to take a look in the mirror. Is any one of us truly eligible?

Grantland - They didn't put Carver in the tournament to discover the Wire's greatest character. If they had, we would have all heeded Carver's greatest line, and known the mid-season plot twist would be coming back to bite us. "It matters. It all matters. I know we thought it didn't but...it does."

Scoop Jardine - Rumor has it he handed Melo the test that Fab flunked. It was a bad pass.

Ronaldo - Kids in Brazil, like Fabricio Melo, now grow up thinking about how they can grow a haircut that takes the attention off their face, rather than paying attention in school.

Jim Boeheim - Once again, his lack of interest in his players outside of the gym comes back to haunt him. This is a terrible black mark on his record. Ugh.

The Dude who is Supposed to Make Sure the Basketball Players Pass their Classes - You're nothing to me now. You're not an Orange, you're not a friend. I don't want to know you or what you do. I don't want to see you at the games, I don't want you near the loud house. When you come to campus, I want to know a day in advance, so I won't be there. You understand?

Fab Melo - Wait... THIS is the guy who is supposed to make sure he passes his OWN classes! C'mon, Melo! What, are you going to the NBA this year? At last check you weren't even in Chad Ford's top 100. One more year of development and you could be a lottery pick. Now I put your chances of returning to SU at less than 50/50, about the same as your odds of sticking in the NBA.

Senioritis: For KJ and Scoop, there's still time to define their legacies

The one bittersweet aspect of these bracket-y days is the knowledge that, at some point in the next three weeks, the seniors will play their last game for Syracuse. College sports are funny that way. You spend 4-5 years thinking about a player - their potential, their flaws, their results - and then they disappear forever. Hak was my favorite Orange of all time, but I don't make a point to watch his games in the NBA. Gerry is on the bench for every game, but he will never suit up. He can't, even if he could.

For better or worse, this is the last time, for better or worse, we'll see Scoop and KJ in Orange, for better or worse. For better or worse, that is.

I doubt anyone would argue SU would be better without KJ. The same can't be said about Scoop. I'd call him the most polarizing player in SU history, except I don't know of anyone occupying the "Scoop is the greatest PG in Syracuse history!" pole. He's a quintessential half-full glass. But before I try once more to hold that glass up to the light, let's look at the results of...

The Horn Companies Big East MPG Challenge

Below are the final standings for the Big East MPG Challenge; these cover the last 20 games, including the Big East Tournament. Oddly, there were three UConn games since the last time I updated the standings after The Kris Joseph Game.

Kris Joseph - 33.4
CJ Fair - 28.7
Fabricio Melo - 27.5 (17 games)
Scoop Jardine - 26.1
Dion Waiters - 25.5
Brandon Triche - 23.3
James Southerland - 15.6
Baye Keita - 10.7 (19 games)
Rakeem Christmas - 8.55
Michael Carter-Williams - 7.43 (14 games)

Woo-hoo! Scoop edges Waiters and Triche! A correct prediction! Vindicated! Horn was right; experience matters at the point. Dion wasn't (and still isn't) a great manager of the offense or a great distributor. And Triche is more of a 2-guard. Scoop is a good dribbler, and better than the other guards at dribbling into Orange offensive plays. Dion generally dribbles to set himself up. Scoop generally dribbles in the direction Boeheim wants him to dribble. Scoop is a good passer, too. And believe it or not, his assist to turnover ratio this year was slightly better than either Dion's or Triche's: 2.1 to 2.0 and 2.0.

He really crawled to the Horn Companies MPG Challenge finish line, though. Scoop's minutes plummeted over the last three games (18, 18 & 26). The only other Orange to take such a noticeable hit over the same period was CJ Fair. CJ was feeling a little ill during the Big East Tourney UConn game, which partially accounted for his season-low 15 minutes. He was also out-played by James Southerland, who saw more minutes in the last three games than he did in any other three game stretch in the season. Scoop's minutes, of course, went to Dion and Triche. They, along with Southerland, are heating up at just the right time. Syracuse will need some decent three-point shooting to make it to the third weekend of the tournament.

I digress...Scoop is playing like garbage right now. I could try to argue that he was the victim of three tough defensive match-ups in a row, and that he was overwhelmed by three excellent coaches who know how to play Scoop, but mostly I think he's pressing too much. He desperately wanted to have a big game in his last game at the dome, and to win the Big East tournament. He looked indecisive (more than usual, you might say) and he missed a lot of open shots that he normally makes. The UNC-Asheville game is important for Scoop; he'll always have two massive cojones, but he needs to get his confidence back.

Scoop Jardine's Legacy

I am vindicated
I am selfish
I am wrong
I am right
I swear I'm right
I swear I knew it all along


And I am flawed...

-"Vindicated," Dashboard Confessional

Sorry...I know quoting Dashboard suggests a lot of things about the way I spent my time in the early 2000s. I assure you, the picture you're forming is largely inaccurate. Particularly the haircut. True, I did think I was more in touch with my emotions than everyone around me, but don't we all in our late teens and early 20s? Anyway, if I was a true Dashboard fan I wouldn't use the song that signaled the band had sold out.

All that said...it fits Scoop, right? Yeah, it's Scoop.

SU fans' collective memory of Scoop Jardine hinges on this tournament. If SU gets to the Final Four and Scoop has his part in it, he'll be remembered with a smile. If SU is upset, he'll be remembered with a sigh at best. If Scoop "blows a game" like he did against Marquette last year, he'll be remembered with a grunt of disapproval. (Quotes around "blows a game" because, as we found out, the backdoor call was incorrect.) Obviously, if SU wins on Monday Night...but that goes without saying.

Does SU need Scoop Jardine to play well to go deep into the tournament? No. Dion and Brandon range from capable to brilliant. And that might be the most damning strike on Scoop's legacy. The starting guard is NOT critical for a title run, in this case.

What's interesting is Scoop has the point guard gene (as Bill Simmons calls it) that Dion hasn't yet shown. He looks to make things happen for his teammates. He puts the ball in good places for his teammates, and has a great lob pass in his arsenal. When he goes into the lane, it's 50/50 on whether he'll pass or shoot. Dion is 80/20 shoot to pass. And those stats are based on carefully formulated advanced stats drawn up entirely from my imagination. But, anyway, Dion is more of a score-first guard. And oh, by the way, that might be EXACTLY what SU needs. The Orange need explosive offense more than they need PG with the point guard gene who has maxed out his abilities and comes up short of excellence.

Yeesh, I'm killing Scoop, aren't I? Still, I have faith; Scoop will do good in the tourney. I believe. I think. I hope.

Kris Joseph's Legacy

Actually, you know what I resent the most about Scoop? He draws so much attention that it has eclipsed KJ's final season.

KJ, too, has been shooting miserably over the last three games. But in a way the last couple games showcased some of KJ's best work. His effort in the second half against UConn on Friday was quintessential KJ, all except his finishing. Drive and draw contact. Drive and draw contact. Occasionally he dished it off, but mostly he found ways to get to the line, again and again, like the sneaky-smart player he has always been. 13 free throws! Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! More! More! More!

Now KJ is in this strange, poor-man's Wes Johnson territory, both in terms of how he will be remembered and how his pro career will shape up. He's not quite as good a shooter or rebounder as Wes Johnson was, but he is better at driving to the hoop. As he was departing the program, I predicted Wes Johnson's ceiling was "useful role player for a great team." (Hey! Another prediction nailed!) KJ made himself into a very good college shooter, jumping from 27% and 22% in his first two seasons to 37% and 36% last year and this year. He could keep improving in that area, but alas, I suspect the NBA is a bridge too far for KJ. I'll stand by my prediction that he is destined to have a long and fruitful career in the Italian pro circuit.

KJ is a winner. He was 114-21 in an Orange jersey, an .844 percentage. I'll keep an eye out for where that ranks all-time in SU history, but it must be up there. In the last four seasons, SU has won 27 or more games, and lost fewer than 10 games every year. Remarkable. In some ways, KJ's career arc resembles that of his coach's - consistence excellence but only scattered moments at the pinnacle. Let's hope there is more to his story before his book closes.

Quick Thought: Foul Trouble Management

I didn't watch the Marquette-Louisville game for the same reason why I haven't posted in a while; I have lots of work these days. Fortunately, spring break awaits. I will try to make up for my lack of posts with much writing over the next week on through the tournament. Look for a final calculation of the Horn Companies Big East MPG Challenge, a final musing on seniors Scoop and KJ, and a running blog of round 1 of the NCAAs.

So anyway, really quickly on Marquette... I saw that the great Jae Crowder - a.k.a. my favorite non-Orange player on my favorite non-Orange team - got his fourth foul with 12:39 to go in the game. Marquette had cut the lead to four at that point. The generally brilliant and lovable (outside of West Virginia) Buzz Williams took Crowder out, and Louisville extended the lead before Crowder got back into the game only a couple minutes later.

Jim Boeheim manages these situations like a riverboat gambler. He'll leave guys in the game with three fouls late in the first half, and with four fouls late in the second half. He used to do this all the time with Arinze Uncle Aku, one of the more cerebral players to wear the Orange in recent years. To me, that strategy always makes mathematical sense. If you leave a guy in, especially a smart, veteran player like Crowder, you are ensuring that you get the most possible minutes out of that guy. If he plays eight more minutes and fouls out at the four minute mark, you've gotten one more minute out of him than if you keep him on the bench until you are inside the eight minute TV timeout and he never fouls out.

Now, you would like to have Crowder at the end of the game. In this case though, he went to the bench at the pivotal moment of the match. Marquette, a team that has played fantastically in the second half all season, never got within four again. It's kinda like the modern argument in baseball that says managers should use their best reliever in critical situations in the eighth or seventh innings as opposed to saving them for the final three outs of the game. Actually, since there is a clock in basketball, it makes more sense to roll the dice and leave your stud in the game. You're maximizing the portion of the game he plays in.

The next time an announcer questions Boeheim leaving a guy in the game with four fouls, please consider  second-guessing the announcer. Smart gamblers know how to play the numbers.

Final note: Jae Crowder never did pick up that fifth foul.