Saves, the Hall of Fame, and Billy the Kid

I just wandered onto the wikipedia entry for saves and was struck by the career blown saves list. You would think it would match up more with the all-time saves leaders, but it really doesn't; Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera don't make the top-10. The skew is partially explainable by the way the closer position has evolved. It's also a testament to how rare it is to find a closer who can remain consistently excellent enough to keep his job for a long time.

Which is why I think Billy Wagner is going into the Hall of Fame along with Trevor and Mo when it's all said and done. He's almost two years younger than Rivera and almost four years younger than Hoffman, and pitching as well as ever. If he stays with the Mets, he's a lock for 400 career saves by the end of 2009. A couple more effective years puts him well into the top 5 all-time in saves.

A couple other thoughts on all-time saves stats that factor into Wagner's case. First, I think Lee Smith gets into the Hall in the next couple of years, which are down years as far as candidates for the Hall go. John Franco still isn't officially retired, but if he gets in as well (I rank him behind Smith), 400 would be established as the magic number for closers to make the Hall. Wagner will reach that, and is a better closer than either Smith or Franco was.

The other thing to note is how the caliber of active relievers really falls off behind Wagner. There is simply no one near him. The only other active pitchers on the all-time saves chart are no longer closers.

Based on his current trajectory, Wagner gets in. The only question is which hat he'll wear.

Eddie Griffin Dead at Age 25

Oh no.

That was my reaction to the headline that just popped up on ESPN.com, "Ex-Wolves player Griffin killed in crash." Eddie Griffin drove through a railroad warning right into a moving train in the early hours of Friday morning. His body was badly burned and wasn't identified until today.

Chris and I remember Eddie well from his one season with Seton Hall, his Freshman year, and ours as well. He was an immensely gifted basketball player. In the one game he played in the Dome, we quickly agreed that he was the best player on the court. But he also had some personal problems that made him an underachiever.

In those days, Seton Hall was in the midst of its brief tenure as my most hated team in the Big East. A year before, PG Darius Lane and company had ended Syracuse's 19-0 season in the Dome. Then in 2001, they had again handed us our first Big East loss and only our second of the season down in New Jersey in January.

In February, we came into the Dome on a seven game home winning streak. Seton Hall, on the other hand, had struggled to a 3-6 mark in league play. Eddie was a microcosm of the team that year; talented, but disappointing in the end. Still, I knew that Seton Hall was going to give us a tough game. Darius Lane had it in for us.

Indeed, he matched his 20 points from the same fixture the year before. But it was Eddie who dominated the game. 18 points, 10 boards, 3 blocks, 3 steals. Jeremy McNeil was no match for his inside-outside game. Nor was Ethan Cole, for that matter.

In front of the largest crowd of the season, we found ourselves down eight with 10 and a half remaining. I can almost remember Boeheim calling a time out right around then. We might have even gone press. Maybe that was the day that Chris pointed out how good a team we were at pressing, an part of Boeheim's arsenal that has remained under-appreciated to this day. Whatever it was, we laid down a 10 point run to get our first lead of the second half.

From there it was a back-and-forth battle. The game report I'm reading says that there were only two points over the final 2:55. Classic Big East ugliness. They came on SU's final possession, when senior Allen Griffin hit the winning bucket. Our other senior, Damone Brown, blocked a shot on the other end and the game was over, 63-62. (No tacos.)

Griffin and Brown led the Orange to the second round of the NCAAs that year, a solid effort for a team that had lost a great senior class the year before. Seton Hall ended up 16-15, losing in the first round of the NIT. Eddie jumped to the NBA.

A year later, the Orange bottomed out with the DeShaun Williams fiasco of a season. We learned that good guys, like Brown and Allen Griffin, can help a team overachieve. Bad guys can ruin a season.

Eddie Griffin was always troubled. When a basketball player's troubles are so obvious that they reveal themselves in his and his team's performance, that's a bad sign. I knew very little about Eddie, besides that he had a drinking problem and had been suspended a bunch of times by the NBA. I don't know why he had those troubles or what his life was like.

I'll be honest, I enjoyed rooting against him. Seton Hall were the bad guys to me. It was natural as an Orange fan. But this is sad. I would have much preferred a story of redemption for ol' Eddie Griffin. Instead, at the same age as I am now, he's dead. I don't know what else to do or say, but tip my cap to Eddie for the one memory of the one day when our paths crossed.

Feilhaber to Derby

Oh. Man. Benny's in the Premiership!

If you haven't seen this guy play, make sure you clear some schedule. He's amazing.

Reaction: No Punishment for Giambi

I'm glad Bud Selig isn't punishing Jason Giambi. I don't like Jason Giambi, but I do respect him for apparently telling the truth about his usage of Performance Enhancing Drugs to the Mitchell investigation. I may be crazy, and I'm certainly an optimist, but I believe Giambi is now clean.

It is far better in the long run for PED users to admit they used and that it was wrong to do so. Selig is right to encourage admissions, as awkward as this first case looks. It doesn't have to be a hard and fast precedent. Selig can deal with future players who admit to using PEDs as he pleases, just like David Stern has been harder on guys who have a more serious background of misbehaving.

After all, it's the elite players I'm interested in. I want to understand how to place them in historical context. I think Giambi's stats were inflated for a few seasons, but I also see that he's a solid player without PEDs. In the end, if the elite players who used admit what they've done, the damage to their legacy is punishment enough. I don't need to see them suspended, much less banned from baseball.

If they're caught, whether from a positive test or by the Tour de France "guilty by association and circumstantial evidence" standard, then they should be suspended. But if they admit their crimes on their own, leniency is the proper response.

A moment for Phil Rizzuto

When I think of Phil Rizzuto, two pop culture moments come to mind.

The first is when Billy Madison asks Miss Vaughn for "any more brain busters" to spell out in cursive on Baseball Day, and Veronica gives him "Rizzuto." He can't write a cursive 'z' (who can?), so it comes out looking like "Rirruto," and Miss Vaughn and the rest of the class mock him for it.

The second is when George drops his keys with the Phil Rizzuto key chain into a pot hole, and comes back to find the pot hole has been covered. Whenever a truck drives over the patch, you hear "Holy Cow!"

A moment for SU football

Today's headline of the Syracuse Post-Standard sports page: "Lackluster Practice fires up Robinson."

The Donnie Webb article went on to explain that, after the Orange came off the practice field, Coach Robinson started his daily press briefing by saying that things were "Not that great."

Other facts from the article about the tirade:

1. He used no bad words
2. His voice wasn't any louder than usual
3. He had a blank-slate look on his face
4. His answers were cold and bordered on snippy
5. It wasn't a tirade

That's all I have to say about SU football for now. If I write more about SU football than SU basketball between now and Thanksgiving, it will be a miracle.

A Few Thoughts on the 2007 PGA Championship

• So Sunday I hiked about 17 miles over three mountains in the Adirondacks. I got back today, excited to flop on the couch and watch golf. I turned on the TiVo to watch the entire Sunday broadcast. After I flipped forward to Tiger teeing off, I got out my computer to check my fantasy baseball team, then my email. Insanely, I had an email from PGA.com with the subject: "Tiger Wins the PGA Championship." Bears eat beets! I was more incredulous then angry. Why the heck did PGA send me that email? I didn't open it. Just deleted it. Of course, I still ended up watching golf for four hours.

• Tiger won. That's 13 majors. If you haven't watched him play, you've got plenty of time. He's gonna be the best golfer in the universe for the next 15 years still.

• I just realized the CBS golf broadcasting team is unbelievable. Jim Nantz anchors with the funny and insightful Nick Faldo, the best wingman in golf broadcasting today. Gary McCord is hilarious. David Feherty is hilarious AND interesting. Nobody breaks down a slo-mo swing as well as Peter Kostis. Those are just the big names. After that, you've got Ian Baker-Finch, who is very well-spoken. There's Bill Macatee, who is good enough to anchor. And, oh by the way, "Gentle" Verne Lundquist is out there as well. Peter Oosterhuis has an excellent last name. And Bobby Clampett has hilarious hair. I'm very happy CBS has two of the four majors these days.

• I caught a bunch of the Crowne Plaza ads with Feherty, (writer) Dan Jenkins, (golfer) Natalie Gulbis, (Latino) George Lopez, Lee Trevino, and Alice Cooper. Clearly a rip off of those "Man Law" commercials, but who cares? They're as hilarious as Bobby Clampett's hair. Find them on YouTube. Watch them. Download them to a DVD. Lock that DVD up in a safe. Take it out in a year and watch them again. They're that funny.

• Part of the reason why no one can catch Tiger on Sunday at majors is Tiger's conservative approach when he has the lead. He never gives up strokes, so he forces everyone else to press to catch up. And it's even more difficult if you're playing with Tiger. He'll be slamming drives into fairways and dumping shots safely on the green and the guy playing with him will feel that much more pressure to hit a better shot. We have an old saying in Monster Croquet..."Conservative Comeback." And I think we can all agree that what's true in Monster Croquet is true in golf.

• Ernie Els cannot beat Tiger. The two majors he won after Tiger joined the PGA Tour both came with Tiger out of the running. He missed some short putts Sunday that would've put him neck-and-neck with Tiger. I think it'd be cool if Tiger kept a notebook with all the pictures of the top 200 golfers who have ever been in a tournament with him, then crossed out their picture with a big red sharpie whenever he felt like he owned them. Last week he crossed out Rory Sabbatini's name. Stephen Ames was crossed off when Tiger beat him 9 & 8 in the 2006 Match Play championship. Els was done back in 2000 when he lost to Tiger by 15 and 8 at the U.S. and British Opens. Now it always feels like he's 8 strokes behind Tiger on Sunday at a major.
  

• Speaking of 2000, Tiger won his first major (1997 Masters) by 12, his third (2000 U.S. Open) by 15 and his fourth (2000 British) by 8. Since then, he's only won two majors by as much as 5 (2005 British and 2006 PGA). And, of course, he's never duplicated the "Tiger Slam" of 2000-01. So I'm still waiting for him to regain his early career dominance.

Quick PGA Comment

I'm heading to the mountains for some hiking this weekend, but I'm sure about 33.3003% of our readers are interested in my thoughts for the PGA this weekend. In a related note, I finally got our aerial antenna connected to our TiVo box allowing me to record the local channels' HD signals. Basically, no technological innovation in the remainder of my lifetime can top this current arrangement. If you do not have TiVo, go out and buy it, rent it, steal it...whatever you have to do. Use it for a week... lock it in a safe for a year then take it out and use it again... it is that good.

As for the PGA, here's my prediction... TNT comes on at 11am and Ernie Johnson announces that overnight, PGA officials met with the players on the leaderboard and have decided that it just wasn't worth playing this weekend. It's too damn hot and, well, frankly, everyone knows Tiger is going to blow away the field anyway.

Southern Hills this year might be the least "Tiger-proofed" course since the word "Tiger-proofed" was coined (which, as a sidenote, might be the most awesomely-cool term ever to reveal how dominating an athlete was). The rough is not long, so there is low punishment for a little inaccuracy off the tee. Why do you think John Daly is on the leaderboard? I think it would be really interesting if he puts up some kind of crazy weekend that blows the field away, like he used to do when he was playing his brains out back at the start of the millenium. If that does happen, you've got to wonder if "Tiger-proofing" actually does work.

Meanwhile, Tiger is dialed in with his short irons. For me, short iron-play is the easiest part of the game to keep doing well once you're dialed in. Driving and long-irons require a long swing that's slightly harder to keep consistent, and putting has a bit of luck involved (see: Tiger's putt on 18 yesterday). So I think Tiger keeps sticking his approach shots. He is, after all, the best short-iron striker ever.

So as much as I'd like to see how low Tiger can shoot, I just don't think it's worth it to make these guys march around for five hours in 100+ degree weather. Call off the tournament. Give the trophy to Tiger.

Paul's Suggested Guide for Athletes Describing Injuries

I just caught Donovan McNabb on PTI, and the boys asked him about his knee. He said he was just "throwing out a number" when he said the other day that it was 75% and everyone in Philly went crazy. That got me thinking... One man's 75% might be another man's 50% and another man's 95%. It's not really a helpful way to describe how you're feeling...until now. I've devised a scale that I think athletes, teams, and media should use when discussing how an injury feels. And here it is:

100% - Don't feel it.
99% - Feel it only if I twist/bang/yoink it.
95% - feel it at the end of a workout
90% - feel it every once in a while during a workout
85% - Aches a while at the end of a workout
80% - Aches during the workout but doesn't really hold me back
75% - Still holding me back a little bit, but could play.
60% - Not ready to play, but I'm ahead of schedule, and the end is in sight
50% - I've made a lot of progress but I've still got a ways to go
40% - I'm behind schedule.
25% - This is going to take a while.
10% - Out for 6 weeks
5% - Out for Year
0% - Out for Career


Wouldn't that be extremely helpful? Alternatively, reporters could carry around a list like this and athletes could point to the description that best fits how they feel. It's genius!

Notent Notables

• Looking for something to take your mind off a certain record that was broken last night? I stumbled across this incredible site on ESPN that lists all sorts of random MLB stats with a distinctly Rob Neyer touch to them. If you're a baseball fan and you've never been to that site before, you won't be able to leave without glancing at all the tabs. My favorite is the "Best Games" tab, which ranks the top 10 pitching performances from each league for every season since 2002.
• In a related thought, it bugs me that I link to ESPN.com so much. I feel like I should be reading a wider variety of sources.
• The variety of sports in the Sports Sauna got even more overwhelming today when I made my first ever trip to the horse track. I went to Saratoga with my dad and his buddy. It's a lot more fun than going to a casino, because you invest so much time and thought into your bets, plus you get to see an actual sporting event play out to settle it. I didn't bet much and ended up down, but I did bet on two winners in eight races. You really have to understand all the different kinds of bets to make some money. I tried an exacta bet before the day was up. Fun times! I did somehow recognize the name of one jockey and one trainer. Bob Baffert was was racing Maimonides, who was the only horse with a purchase price in the millions of dollars. The horse backed that up, winning in dominating fashion. I'll be watching for it next year in the Triple Crown.

A Quick Update on Barry Bonds and Me

Gradually, over the past days and weeks, public perception has softened towards Barry Bonds, I think. San Diegoans, in a microcosmic example of this change, booed Barry when he came to the plate but couldn't help but cheer when he tied Hank Aaron. My own brother is perfectly content about Barry having the record, at least compared to me. I still resent Barry for catching Aaron. The greatest record in sports shouldn't go down this way.

At the same time, I'm really starting to enjoy watching his games. Just like the Yankees at the turn of the millennium, baseball has a bad guy to root against. Every at bat that Barry doesn't homer gives me a little more satisfaction.

Equally enjoyable is watching the opposing pitchers battle Bonds. Tonight's game featured rookie John Lannan. The 22-year-old, 6-5 southpaw looked pretty nervous out there, peering out at Barry from the shadow of his cap. Somehow he popped up Barry in the first and got him to ground into a double play in the fifth. But even when he walked him in the third, it felt like a small victory. I imagine a double off the wall might be even more fun to watch happen.

I was marveling at the way the universe works, to bring this random guy, Lannan, to this point on this night. The guy was pitching in A+ Potomac at the beginning of the season. After 8 games he moved to AA Harrisburg for 6 games, then AAA Columbus for another 6. That's where he put up his best numbers. He gets called up July 26, a week ago realizes he'll be facing the Giants tonight, and two days ago realizes he'll be facing Barry sitting on 755. Crazy. He does look promising. He can get it into the 90s. Not much movement on his breaking ball, but he's not afraid to pitch inside. A lefty who can throw strikes, I'd say he'll stick around.

Just as suddenly as I have become a John Lannan fan, I've gained a greater appreciation and interest in Alex Rodriguez. I've already started to check the Yankees boxscores for a HR from the future contender for the record. Maybe clean, pure Ken Griffey Jr. can make a run up the list in his final years too. In any event, I'll be even more excited for the next home run champ than I would have been if Bonds hadn't juiced.

* * *

My brother and I were looking at Bonds's stats the other day. Have a look for yourself. As Game of Shadows alleges, Barry was mad at the attention McGwire and Sosa were garnering in 1998. The chase for 61 captured the public so much that Bonds only finished 8th in the MVP voting despite hitting 37 HRs, 122 RBIs, 28 SBs, and .303. He knew they were juicing, so he decided to show everyone once and for all that he was better than them. The statistical leap in 1999 and beyond is so incredibly obvious. The stolen bases disappeared, and his old peak of 46 HRs became his new average.



P.S. Lannan just struck out Barry to end the seventh. Barry swung and missed at the last two pitches. I was grinning with the count 3-2 and, sitting alone in my basement, I cheered after strike three. Great stuff.