A Sense of Things
Remember my NCAA mid-season predictions?
How I said Kansas was heating up in time for conference play?
How I was high on Marquette this season?
How I said Michigan St. would win the Big 10 easily?
How I picked Georgetown to be the most disappointing team in the Big East?
Remember? I hope so, because I'm not the kind of guy who likes to blow his own horn.
I'll admit, as my American history class this semester has learned, I don't have a head for numbers. I can't remember the date of the Battle of Little Bighorn, or name anyone else on Oklahoma besides Blake Griffin. But I do have a good sense of things. A good feel for how events are going to play out. With the Bracket Beyond the Bracket beginning this week (great phrase ESPN came up with last year to describe conference tourneys), with the Big East tourney awaiting me for my trip to NYC next week, and with the NCAA tournament a mere two days and two weeks away, here's how I sense things going in March...
Unlike recent years, there are only a few teams that can win the championship. They are, in no particular order: UNC, UConn, Pitt, Oklahoma and...yeah, that's it. Well, I'll rephrase that. I'll say its a 90% chance that one of those 4 wins, and a 10% chance for the field.
To a large extent, my perception of this entire season has been shaped by watching Syracuse this year. SU is not a great basketball team. They are, at best, a Sweet 16 team. They couldn't pull out a single win against a top tier Big East opponent. And yet, they beat Florida and Kansas (both of whom beat Washington in the same non-conference tourney) and Memphis at Memphis. Keep that in mind.
Do not believe in Memphis this year. Just...just don't. They went undefeated in conference partly because Calipari got a lot out of a little talent, but mostly because Conference USA is terrible. Memphis will be a weak 2-seed.
Duke lacks a Boozer-Brand-Laettner inside presence to compensate for when their shooters go cold. They won't make the Final Four.
Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, UCLA...decent teams with great coaches. Any of them could make a run deep, if the bracket falls their way. They all just lack the stud to carry them to a championship.
Remember: the ACC and the Big East are fantastic this year. Every other major conference is crap. Purdue sucks, which is good enough for 2nd in the Big 10. The third (Illinois) and fourth (Penn St) place teams played a 38-33 game a couple weeks ago. 38-33. 38 points WON THE GAME.
Oklahoma is good only because Blake Griffin is the second best player in the NCAAs this year. Other than that, the Big 12 is mediocre. I watched Texas at home beat Oklahoma with Griffin out, and they STILL could have lost.
The Pac-10? Please. Washington was a joke against Kansas and Florida. UCLA (see above) lacks the horses for another run.
The SEC is worse than all of them. Hideous basketball.
And yet...the mid-majors are in a bit of a down year too. At least, that's what the numbers indicate. It seems to me that when so many major conferences lack definitive top tier teams, it erases a gap that mid-majors usually slide into to grab at-large bids. That's a problem with the selection process that I don't have a solution to. Just know that this year, of all years, mid-majors should be getting more bids, but they're going to get less.
So...watch out for a few more deep runs in the tourney by the mid-majors that do get in. I can't stress enough how weak this field is this year. Look for multiple mid-majors in the Elite Eight.
My pick for the championship...Pittsburgh. If this was 2003, Pitt would be ranked about 12 going into the tournament. They probably would have a couple more losses. DeJuan Blair would be a little bit further under the radar. Pitt would be a popular Final Four darkhorse candidate as a 3-seed. And Pittsburgh fans would be thinking...if we get hot, we can win this thing!
Well, it's 2009. Pittsburgh is going to have a 1-seed and a wide-open path to the Final Four. DeJuan Blair is the best player in college basketball. In a few weeks, he'll go Carmelo Anthony on everybody.
How I said Kansas was heating up in time for conference play?
How I was high on Marquette this season?
How I said Michigan St. would win the Big 10 easily?
How I picked Georgetown to be the most disappointing team in the Big East?
Remember? I hope so, because I'm not the kind of guy who likes to blow his own horn.
I'll admit, as my American history class this semester has learned, I don't have a head for numbers. I can't remember the date of the Battle of Little Bighorn, or name anyone else on Oklahoma besides Blake Griffin. But I do have a good sense of things. A good feel for how events are going to play out. With the Bracket Beyond the Bracket beginning this week (great phrase ESPN came up with last year to describe conference tourneys), with the Big East tourney awaiting me for my trip to NYC next week, and with the NCAA tournament a mere two days and two weeks away, here's how I sense things going in March...
Unlike recent years, there are only a few teams that can win the championship. They are, in no particular order: UNC, UConn, Pitt, Oklahoma and...yeah, that's it. Well, I'll rephrase that. I'll say its a 90% chance that one of those 4 wins, and a 10% chance for the field.
To a large extent, my perception of this entire season has been shaped by watching Syracuse this year. SU is not a great basketball team. They are, at best, a Sweet 16 team. They couldn't pull out a single win against a top tier Big East opponent. And yet, they beat Florida and Kansas (both of whom beat Washington in the same non-conference tourney) and Memphis at Memphis. Keep that in mind.
Do not believe in Memphis this year. Just...just don't. They went undefeated in conference partly because Calipari got a lot out of a little talent, but mostly because Conference USA is terrible. Memphis will be a weak 2-seed.
Duke lacks a Boozer-Brand-Laettner inside presence to compensate for when their shooters go cold. They won't make the Final Four.
Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, UCLA...decent teams with great coaches. Any of them could make a run deep, if the bracket falls their way. They all just lack the stud to carry them to a championship.
Remember: the ACC and the Big East are fantastic this year. Every other major conference is crap. Purdue sucks, which is good enough for 2nd in the Big 10. The third (Illinois) and fourth (Penn St) place teams played a 38-33 game a couple weeks ago. 38-33. 38 points WON THE GAME.
Oklahoma is good only because Blake Griffin is the second best player in the NCAAs this year. Other than that, the Big 12 is mediocre. I watched Texas at home beat Oklahoma with Griffin out, and they STILL could have lost.
The Pac-10? Please. Washington was a joke against Kansas and Florida. UCLA (see above) lacks the horses for another run.
The SEC is worse than all of them. Hideous basketball.
And yet...the mid-majors are in a bit of a down year too. At least, that's what the numbers indicate. It seems to me that when so many major conferences lack definitive top tier teams, it erases a gap that mid-majors usually slide into to grab at-large bids. That's a problem with the selection process that I don't have a solution to. Just know that this year, of all years, mid-majors should be getting more bids, but they're going to get less.
So...watch out for a few more deep runs in the tourney by the mid-majors that do get in. I can't stress enough how weak this field is this year. Look for multiple mid-majors in the Elite Eight.
My pick for the championship...Pittsburgh. If this was 2003, Pitt would be ranked about 12 going into the tournament. They probably would have a couple more losses. DeJuan Blair would be a little bit further under the radar. Pitt would be a popular Final Four darkhorse candidate as a 3-seed. And Pittsburgh fans would be thinking...if we get hot, we can win this thing!
Well, it's 2009. Pittsburgh is going to have a 1-seed and a wide-open path to the Final Four. DeJuan Blair is the best player in college basketball. In a few weeks, he'll go Carmelo Anthony on everybody.
Labels: NCAA basketball
posted by Prof. A at 5:54 PM
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