Prediction

I want to go on the record as saying I think Vince Young is going to be a bust. It should be noted that the only game I've ever seen him play was the national championship this year. We spent much of the game discussing Vince's pro potential and all agreed that he was simply a great college QB.

PROBLEM ONE: In golf, if your swing looks like crap, you're probably not a good golfer. Indeed, the greatest players have great swings. There are rare exceptions (Jim Furyk) but it's a logical qualification. The same goes for throwing motion. I know he's gotten it done in college, but Tennessee is going to spend some time tinkering with Vince's "get this sack of potatoes off my shoulder" throwing-motion.

PROBLEM TWO: Colin Cowherd of ESPNRadio was vehemently against Vince getting drafted early solely because of his disastrous wonderlic test scores. His point was that, for the QB position, the wonderlic is statistically a good indicator of QB success. If you're gambling on whether or not a QB is going to be successful in the NFL, you'd bet on a high wonderlic. It's a decision-making test. It's not everything. But it's one point against Vince.

PROBLEM THREE: All this hype seems to have come from one classic game against USC. We all know USC was riding an incredible winning streak and the consensus number one going in, but everyone forgets that their defense was not that great (PAC-10 style). Vince shredded them, no doubt. But without that game, I wonder if he even gets drafted in the 1st round.

That's all I got. I'm probably wrong. I am, of course, an idiot. I'd probably get a 0 on the wonderlic! If I did, you'd do well to bet on me never starting as a QB in the NFL.

Amphetamine Testing's Effect on Day Game Stats

This season for the first time MLB is testing players for amphetamines. I've heard a couple sources suggest that this might have a particularly sharp affect on day games when players like to "bean up" to get going earlier. I decided to check out how the day game stats relative to the night game stats are looking this year compared to other years.

I started wondering about this today when trying to decide whether to pitch Chris Capuano on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley. Cappy is one of those pitchers who really struggles during the day. The first pitcher I discovered who had this problem was Curt Schilling, back when he pitched for the Phillies. He was getting shelacked by the Cubs one weekday afternoon, and they posted his day/night splits to show it was nothing new. Curt's actually gotten a lot better at pitching during the day: his day ERA is 3.67 compared to 3.27 at night. But his career Wrigley stats still reflect his old struggles: 4.79 ERA, 2 wins in 9 starts.

Capuano's numbers led me to decide not to pitch him Sunday:
Career Day: 10-11, 4.69ERA, 1.42WHIP
Career Night: 19-15, 3.89ERA, 1.29WHIP
2005 Day: 7-5, 4.68ERA, 1.43WHIP
2005 Night: 11-7, 3.50ERA, 1.35WHIP

It's something a savvy fantasy pitching manager should keep an eye on. Some pitchers just prefer the night. But is it less important this year, because of the amphetamine testing?

Let's check out the numbers. I should note that amphetamines were/are supposedly used the most for day games following night games. I don't have quite enough time on my hands to track those stats down so you'll have to settle for just day v. night, a comparison that would still be affected if the theory is true.

2006 Day MLB Avg: .2642
2006 Night MLB Avg: .2664

So 2006 hitters prefer the night, just like Chris and Curt. Is that a change from last year? Let's see...

2005 Day MLB Avg: .2635
2005 Night MLB Avg: .2649

Well, that doesn't tell us too much, does it? You'll note I had to carry the averages to four digits to even see the difference between the Day averages. But the night average is actually .0015 higher this year.

Of course, a better comparison would be April 2005 day/night splits to this year's splits so far. (I wonder if cool nights are more detrimental to pitchers than to hitters?) But, again, I can't find stats that specific.

I guess our conclusion is the amphetamine ban doesn't seem to be having much of an affect so far. Perhaps later in the season, averages will start to dip. The Sports Sauna will keep an eye on it. Until then, I will recommend buying stock in any coffee bar with locations in and around MLB stadiums.

Running Diary: Champions League

Exactly a week ago, I was wandering in north London, running here and there into Villarreal fans killing time before their semi-final match with Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League. Ignoring the fact that the so-called "Yellow Submarine" knocked out Everton in the qualifying stages AND that I'll be pulling for the Gunners....I dedicate this running diary to those die-hard Spaniards who made the trip to London last week.

2:31 - Tommy Smyth is ready to call the game with his overwhelming Irishness (and the superb Derrick Rae). Eric Cantona is ready to peddle fair football and Nike sneakers with his overwhelming Frenchness. I'm ready to watch the game and commentate with my overwhelming Americaness. My soup and sushi lunch is ready with...well, that's self-explanatory.

2:37 - The big story coming into the match is Arsene Wenger's blow-up following the big Premiership derby against Tottenham this weekend. Two Arsenal players ran into each other and fell down. Arsenal stopped playing, despite the lack of a whistle, expecting Tottenham to kick the ball out. Tottenham and the referee felt the two bumbling Gunners were fit enough to carry on. Edgar Davids played on, feeding Robbie Keane for the goal. The game ended 1-1, and Tottenham stayed 4 points ahead of Arsenal in the race for the final spot in the Champions League next year. Wenger hasn't stopped crying about it. Literally. His tear ducts have yet to close. Doctors have never seen anything like it.

2:43 - I'm going to come right out and admit I know nothing about Villarreal. Their player to watch Tommy Smyth and Soccernet tell me, is the Argentinean Juan Roman Riquelme. Oh yeah! Diego Forlan, of Uruguay, is up front. Dangerous former Man U striker. Arsenal simply has the greatest striker in the world. Henry started off the weekend game on the bench before coming on to score the equalizer. He's starting tonight.

2:45 - Off we go. Prediction...Arsenal, carrying the 1-0 edge coming in, holds on for a 2-1 win on aggregate, ending the Cinderella run. (We'll switch to game-time for diary purposes...)

5:00 - Jens Lehmann has set the record for most consecutive Champions League minutes without conceding a goal: 650 minutes and counting.

10:00 - Villarreal is attacking fairly well. Looking like the wide open game everyone hoped for.

12:45 - Arsene Wenger sends in Gael Clichy to replace Mathieu Flamini (hamstring) on defense for Arsenal. Speaking of overwhelmingly French...

23:49 - Lehmann is busy, but not stressed. Villarreal needs to test him more. Same story on the opposite end, but Arsenal is playing well with the 1-0 lead.

24:57 - Arsenal defenders have been stressed three times in the last minute, but no shots resulted.

27:56 - Smyth hits the nail on the head: "The big boot has been effective for the Arsenal defenders, but I don't think you can play that way for 90 minutes."

29:30 - Free kick for Riquelme from 30 yards...nice flick inches away from his teammate. Still no stress on Lehmann, who scoops it up

32:00 - How are you supposed to eat 12 pieces of sushi with one little packet of soy sauce? Honestly! Have to break out the La Choy...

34:20 - Derrick Rae notes that Arsenal are in a 4-1-4-1. The holding midfielder idea really looks a lot better when you've got Henry as your lone striker.

37:17 - Guillermo Franco, Villarreal's other striker, was born in Argentina but he just became a Mexican citizen so he could be named as an alternate for their World Cup squad. I dislike him already.

40:18 - THERE is a big save from Lehmann off a flicking header from Franco, almost point-blank. Nice cross led to that chance.

45:00 - Reyes of Arsenal goes down after a tough (but clean) challenge. He starts to get up, so Villarreal plays on, but moments later he is back down and Villarreal clears. Everyone immediately thinks of the Tottenham game...

45:00 - Riquelme from straight on, 30 yards... bending to Lehmann's right, Jens juggles it but keeps it out.

Half - Villarreal was the better side. I'm more convinced that Arsenal will need a goal in the 2nd half, but they are not playing like a team that is going to get one.

Half - First GREAT new commercial. By Gatorade. "Take me out to the ballgame" plays as images of the US traveling to far, distant, hostile lands flash on the screen. At the end, the US scores one, two, three goals. A whole new ballgame. I love it. Go USA.

Half - Second GREAT new commercial. Little Latino boy directs 22 of the greatest players on earth into position as two opposing teams on a dirt field in an unknown city. Impossible is nothing. Adidas.

47:30 - Villarreal picks up right where they left off with a Franco header just wide.

55:20 - All Villarreal at this point. Arsenal hasn't sniffed the other net. I can't remember what Villarreal's goalie looks like. But still no scoring.

59:20 - Another free kick for Riquelme from straight on...dropped right at the face of the goal. Another test for Lehmann but he fists it away. Riquelme has been quite crafty with his free kicks. Each one is unique and fun.

61:35 - Three quick corners all of a sudden for Arsenal. Third one was the best as Toure gets a clean head on it but misses the target.

63:00 - Villarreal substitutes a striker for a midfielder. (Arsenal just got served!)

64:15 - Franco collects a long ball at the top of the box, pulling Lehmann out. The ball gets dropped back to Forlan who misses a wide open target. That will be the moment Villarreal looks back on if they fail to score in the next 25 minutes.

67:30 - Franco puts the ball into the back of the net, but he's offsides. No doubt about the call. We play on, but Villarreal keeps getting closer without any sign of offense from Arsenal.

70:00 - Arsenal only 20 minutes away from their first Champions League final.

71:00 - Barcelona v. AC Milan in the other semi-final tomorrow night. It's only on ESPN Deportes here in the US. If I had a dollar for every time I wish I had ESPN Deportes, I'd have like 15 or 20 dollars...still not enough to pay for a subscription to ESPN Deportes.

73:00 - Arsenal subs midfielder Robert Pires on for forward Jose Antonio Reyes. (Villarreal just got served back! That means it's on!)

80:00 - Now Villarreal has gone 10 minutes without a good chance. Tommy, Derrick, and I suddenly favor Arsenal to hang on without scoring after all.

82:30 - Arsenal looks much fresher now, after playing defense all game. Villarreal is stale.

83:45 - In other news, Manhattan just hired a former Pitt assistant Barry Rohrssen as head basketball coach. I hope he doesn't bring Chevon Troutman back as an assistant. Crime in the Big Apple would spike.

86:10 - Franco flops in the box to no avail. The Yellow Submarine is sinking...or floating...or whatever happens to a submarine when it is about to lose a soccer game (I'm not very good at metaphors).

88:00 - Unbelievable. Jose Mari flops on a bump in the box and earns a penalty for Villarreal! He was bumped, but he also flopped big time. Rae reports that he has a reputation as a diver and Arsenal should have known better than to even touch him.

89:00 - SAVE LEHMANN!! Riquelme denied! That was the biggest save of Lehmann's career! Riquelme went low and to Lehmann's left, but the German guessed correctly.

90:00 - Henry almost slips one in off a break, but can't beat the keeper. 3 minutes of stoppage time to go.

Ballgame. Arsenal through to their first Champions League final.

Curiosity

I am curious about the NBA playoffs this year. More curious than usual. More curious than I have been since MJ's last game with the Bulls. I wonder if the NBA is getting more interesting these days? Here are other things I am wondering...

What will the Lakers look like with Kobe doing everything himself to an even greater degree than in the regular season? Could it work?

Will Carmelo continue to add to his resume as the greatest clutch player in the game today?

Can I spot Bill Simmons behind the vistor bench at Clippers home games?

How far will LeBron go this year?

Is Shaq too far past his prime to win a title?

Will Ron Artest do something insane?

Will I watch a single game from tip-off to completion before the finals?

The Original Glue Guy

In his NBA Playoff Preview, the Sports Guy called Josh Howard "the best Glue Guy in the league." Upon reading that, I had a notion that Josh Pace was the original Glue Guy. I don't remember hearing the term until after SU won the title and everyone was trying to explain what exactly Pace did for the Orange.

Am I wrong? Let's go to the source of all universal truth...Google.

Well, the first site that comes up for the search ' "Glue Guy" "Josh Pace" ' has a brilliant photo:
























It's from an SI on Campus article by Seth Davis dated November 2004, listing 16 Glue-Guys (and girls) for the upcoming NCAA basketball season. Josh Pace is number one on the list.

But right below it is a link to an earlier Seth Davis article from February 2004. Turns out its his fifth annual All-Glue Team.

Well, there goes my theory. I thought it was a Jay Bilas creation. I guess I owe Seth Davis some props. Also, props due to James Landis.

Case closed. It was worth it for the picture, wasn't it?

Sports Sauna Closed for Repairs

The Sauna will re-open on April 20. Until then, pay attention to your fantasy baseball wires every day. Now is the time to win your league.

MLB: Carlos Delgado v. Mike Jacobs

Last August, a tall, lanky, lefty first baseman with a sweet swing helped trigger a late (ultimately futile) playoff push. No, it wasn't John Olerud. It was Mike Jacobs, the Mets 2nd ranked hitting prospect at the time according to Baseball America.

In the offseason, Jacobs was traded, along with two other prospects: pitcher Yusmeiro Petit and infielder Grant Psomas. Petit, a righty, was the Mets best pitching prospect in 2005, while Baseball America called Psomas the prospect with the Best Strike-zone Discipline.

But neither have played a major league game. So we'll leave them aside for a couple years and focus only on Jacobs and Delgado.

As far "selling high," the Mets couldn't have chosen a better moments. Check out Jacobs' numbers:

(I'm sure these won't format right. Sorry. You can open up their player pages in seperate windows if you want. Jacobs. Delgado.)

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	NYM	30	100	19	31	7	0	11	23	10	22	0	0	.310	.375	.710	1.085

I know it's ridiculous, but let's project some of those numbers for 500 ABs:

95 R, 155 H, 55 HR, 115 RBI, 50 BB, 110 K

Now let's look at one of Carlos Delgado's 2003 season (the last time he hit over 40 HRs, his 2005 season, and his career 162 game average:

SEASON

TEAM

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

2003

Tor

161

570

117

172

38

1

42

145

109

137

0

0

.302

.426

.593

1.019

2005

Fla

144

521

81

157

41

3

33

115

72

121

0

0

.301

.399

.582

.981

Career

162 572 100 162 40 1 38 121 93 141 1 1 .284 .393 .559 .952

Clearly, Delgado could never meet those fantastical power stats for Jacobs last year. I guess the question is, can Jacobs? Maybe.

Delgado is 33 years old. He'll turn 34 on June 25. He is just hitting the downslope of his career. Jacobs, 25 years old, is just starting his.

Delgado his three more years on his current deal. The Marlins traded him as part of their massive salary dump, getting three solid young players in return. They are satisfied. As a Mets fan, I am not. First off, I would rather have Mike Jacobs three years from now, than Carlos Delgado three years from now. That is worth the gamble. The next question is would I rather have Carlos Delgado over the next three years than Jacobs? Well, this year I think we can expect 30HR and 100RBI, with a .285 avg from Delgado. The Mets would love that. There is a chance that Jacobs matches those numbers. We can argue how likely that is, but there is a chance. Jacobs might rise fast and Delgado might fade fast.

The greater issue for me is the Mets' penchant for mortgaging the future for a quick payoff that doesn't payoff. They've been making the same mistake for 15 years, in their desperate attempt to keep up with the Yankees. I say build from the ground up. Keeping Wright and Reyes is a good start. They might even be our best players this year. I'd like to see us do more of that. Delgado is just a little too old, and not quite fantastic enough for me.

Bottom line: if Delgado helps us win the World Series, I'm wrong. But otherwise, this trade will be judged by comparing this stats. Check back here throughout the season; I'll keep an eye on it.

Vitale Vindication

I'm becoming quite intriguied by the ESPN ombudsman. Mostly, I'm excited to finally figure out what an ombudsman is. Today I was excited to read that he gave props to Dick Vitale, even addressing the perception that he is biased towards Duke. Keep an eye on his column off the front page of ESPN.com.

I like to think of Fyall as my ombudsman. I'm just glad I don't have to say that sentence out loud.

NCAA Wrap-Up

It's almost fitting that the Final Four was so anti-climactic. The real story remains the great first two weekends. It was quite a ride.

I'll grit my teeth and congratulate Billy Donovan. He did a fantastic job with that young team; they were incredibly balanced. He's buried the demons of 5 years of March debacles. Once you win a title, you can do no wrong.* Of course, they won't make the sweet sixteen next year. Write it down. You heard it here first.

Next year will be the first year of the NBA's new rule mandating one gap year after high school before a player can be drafted. We shall see if that makes what happened this year a one year thing. My guess is it will only slightly. Players will still jump as underclassmen straight to the pros. Occasionally, you'll have a Carmelo Anthony situation where a player who would have otherwise jumped straight to the pros leads his team to a championship, but the mid-majors will still be stocked with more experienced players. You're really only talking about a dozen more quality players added to the top-tier teams, at the most. So we may not see an 11-seed in the Final Four next year, but it will happen again soon.

8 months until college basketball starts...


*Jim Harrick is the only exception: he did no right before, during, and after leading UCLA to the championship in 1995.

MLB: Pre-season prediction

I'm tired. Just got back from Indy. But I did want to get one prediction on the record.

Atlanta wins its 16th straight division championship. The Mets will have to fight for the wild card.

Now as a rule, I'm a pretty optimistic sports fan as far as my teams go, but I just don't buy into the higher hopes for the Mets this year. I don't like the strategy of trading the future to make a run right now. And the deal that bothers me the most is the Mike Jacobs for Carlos Delgado move. But that deserves a longer post...

In Person: The Final Four

Some thoughts on a great time in Indy this weekend...

-My dad pointed out that Indianans drive like they're Indy Car racers, and it's so true. They tailgate the crap out of each other. They race to red lights. It's quite hilarious, really.
-I've been to the Indy race track twice now, and it's worth a pilgrimage, even for non-racing fans like me. The place is massive. The stands for the crowd stretch so far down the road that you can't see the end of them. As we drove up, we had the radio on and the windows up, and we could still hear a single car going around the track, giving a couple laps to anyone willing to pay for it. The noise of 30 cars must be incredible. But I still am not interested in going to see it in person. You can't see the whole race because it's so big.
-Going to the Final Four, on the other hand, is well worth it, even if you don't have a dog in the fight. It helped to have a guide with Final Four experience like Fyall to explain what was typical for the event. One great dynamic that Fyall has seen before: the triangulation of fans. If you're a George Mason fan, you're hanging out with LSU and UCLA fans before the games, and absolutely hating any Florida fans. It works the same for all the other teams.
-Of course, at the game, LSU and UCLA were pulling for George Mason. The last time I saw an underdog embraced by the fans of the alternate-game teams was Southern Illinois in the Carrier Dome back in the late nineties. But this was even better. 3/4 of the stadium got on its feet when George Mason came on the court. At the end, even the Florida fans applauded George Mason. Great stuff.
-Brushed shoulders with the following: Steve Fischer (on the street), Tony Dungy (at the convention center), Peyton and Eli Manning (together on the suite level of the RCA dome).
-Also was the first in our group to spot Kareem Abdul-Jabbar walk into the arena and take a front row seat behind the press.
-If you ever have a chance to watch a game from a suite, take it. The free food and drink was unbelievable. I could get up at every TV timeout, grab some food or another drink, and get back well before the action picked back up. So great!

As for the games themselves, obviously a bit of a let-down. The George Mason game was captivating from start to finish because they never really gave up. The shots just weren't falling. I've never seen so many lay ups miss because they were too hard.

LSU, on the other hand, was terrible. We stayed the whole time, of course, but to amuse ourselves, Fyall and I named champions and runners up from past games. I can do from 1989 onwards. Impressive, considering I only started watching in 1992, when I was 10.

I'd say the Gators are more talented, but my pick for the final is UCLA for the following reasons:
1. Coaching: The Bruins are playing Ben Howland's game right now, and it's a beautiful thing to see. It's called Big East defense. Can the Big East take partial credit for a championship here? Billy Donovan loses a head-to-head coach-off, I think.
2. Momentum: Florida beat some good teams to get this far, but its UCLA that is coming off a far more decisive victory. Think of it this way. If you take one of the following away from the Gators, George Mason is right there with them last night: offensive rebounding, Lee Humphrey, the 3-pointer in general, all those Mason shots that went in and out. Remembering how much LSU cut into the lead after UCLA took its starters out, you really can't do the same for the Bruins.