Wednesday, February 12, 2014

What Makes a Champion - Thoughts before SU at Pitt

Syracuse plays in Pittsburgh in a couple hours. The Orange have a miserable recent record against Jamie Dixon, especially when the Panthers are hosting. It's very possible Syracuse will lose its first game of the year tonight, and it would be a respectable loss. However, I'm feeling better about SU's chances in Pittsburgh than I have in a very long time. This Orange team plays is comfortable playing slowly and patiently on offense than any Boeheim team in recent memory. They score efficiently. They score from anywhere on the court. And they are an excellent offensive rebounding team, which cuts into Pitt's defensive rebounding advantage, a hallmark of a Jamie Dixon team. I also think this SU team is a just plain tough matchup for this Pittsburgh team. Pitt doesn't quite have the man to man defenders to matchup well with SU's well-rounded attack. (At least, I didn't think they did after the first meeting this year.) This is probably the toughest non-Duke matchup of SU's regular season, but I am predicting a victory with a similar scoreline to the first meeting. Say...55-51 Syracuse.

The larger question posed in my post before the incredible SU-Duke game was whether Syracuse truly is a title contender. Clearly, the answer is yes. In part, I've been persuaded by SU's consistency and its increasingly vaunted steadiness in crunch time. Plus, this SU team is very good in many different ways, better than anyone in a few ways, and much better than most in a lot of ways. If the Orange stay healthy and out of off-court trouble, anything less than a Final Four appearance will be disappointed.

I'm also realizing that championship basketball teams look differently than they did even a decade ago. I'll always judge Syracuse teams against the 2003 roster, and that team's ceiling is out of reach of this team's. But because the most talented players head to the NBA after one season even more often than they did back in the early 2000s, the most talented teams are also young teams. And young teams are inconsistent. Kansas is the most talented team, but they are far from a lock. Kentucky is incredibly talented too, but their title chances feel remote. If Syracuse wins the title this year, it won't be simply because they have plenty of experience on their roster. It will be in large part because of their game to game consistency and their moment to moment steadiness, both of which are boosted in part by the experience of their players, in part by the personality of their coach, and in part by the style of the collective parts, from Ennis to Fair.

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