Into the Deep Blue: It's Time to See What the Orange are Made of
This afternoon SU goes for its best start ever, and it hosts the famous Duke Blue Devils for the first time as a conference opponent. And maybe, just maybe, I'll figure out how good the Orange really are.
It's not that we've played a horrible schedule, although this year's ACC is a huge step down from the gauntlet that the Big East was for the last 15 years. SU beat Villanova (#9) fairly easily for its best win of the season. The neutral site victory over Baylor was mildly impressive and it's always good to beat Jamie Dixon's Pitt (#19).
But in terms of talent on the roster, I'm not quite sure how good we are. When I look at the #1 Arizona Wildcats, for example, I see an unmatchable balance of talent, from big Aaron Gordon on out to leading scorer Nick Johnson. Kansas has the exceedingly good Andrew Wiggins and the increasingly frightening Joel Embiid, plus six wins over ranked opponents. Michigan State has been banged up, with only three guys playing in every one of their games this season, but they've still only lost twice. (What would SU's record be if Boeheim had to deal with injuries to anyone besides DaJuan Coleman?)
I think that Arizona, Kansas, and Michigan State are all better than Syracuse. I'm quite certain about that, actually. Not that we can't beat them (that's why they play the game, etc.), but those guys have more talent.
Then there is a pack of teams that may or may not be better than us. Florida, Wichita St., San Diego St., Oklahoma St., Kentucky, and probably a few more. Duke is in that group, too, which brings me to today's opponent. Would Syracuse still be undefeated if we played Duke's schedule? No way. Duke lost to Kansas and Arizona, and then dropped two road games in the ACC. A win today would be a giant step for the Orange to go undefeated at home, but they'll lose on the road eventually, at Pittsburgh and/or at Cameron Indoor and/or at Virginia and/or at somewhere more surprising.
Duke will have the best player on the court in Jabari Parker. I'm rather excited to see him play. Quite excited. Trying-to-quiet-my-latent-inner-Duke-fan excited. The Carmelo Anthony comparisons started early, and I think it's very possible that this Duke team might be the equivalent to the 2003 Syracuse team if Jabari goes nuts in March. Parker's averages - 18.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG - suggest he's at best a poor man's Melo - 22.2 and 10.0.
Duke also has Rodney Hood, a guy who can score from anywhere on the court, and who would definitely crack SU's starting five (bumping Cooney). And Coach K has his usual supporting cast of above-average jump shooters: Dawkins, Sulaimon, and Thornton. Their weakness, especially against the Orange, is their height. In recent years, K has just thrown a Plumlee brother in the middle and called it a night, only his current Plumlee (Marshall) is crap. Look for Christmas to have a decent day on offense, and the rest of the Orange attack should be able to attack the rim if they can beat the pesky Coach K man-to-man defending.
OK, I've gone long enough without saying anything nice about the Orange. I do love this team. Tyler Ennis plays PG like Don Draper drinks whiskey: smooth, elegant, and confident. He's the best pure PG to step on the court for the Orange since Jason Hart. His quiet command of the team reminds me of Billy Edelin during the championship run, and his sense of when it's time for him to get to the hoop reminds me of Allen Griffin, only he's WAY more talented than either of those guys. Also, Louie McCroskey has nothing to do with anything, but I just thought I'd mention his name here, because he once groined Hilton Armstrong in the face.
C.J. Fair's midrange game is awesome, and Jerami Grant's shooting is improving there as well. Fair would be a deserved ACC player of the year. And don't look now, but Chad Ford (ESPN Insiders only) has Grant going ahead of Ennis in the NBA draft.
SU is very, very good. But they don't yet have the feel of a true contender, at least not to me. And they have some flaws, glaring ones that pop out at me every time I click on their ESPN team page. Those four basic per game offensive stats listed in big black numbers are not impressive at all: 188th in PPG, 147th in RPG, 192th in APG, 116th in FG%. I always see those bad rankings when I click on my link. I wish there was some way I could make the default stats be SU's defensive numbers, because when you click on that tab, they pop off the charts: 6th in points allowed, 284th in RPG (oops, not that one), 50th in BPG, and 10th in SPG. It's no secret that's the end of the court where we make our hay.
Our defense will carry us far, but it'll be tough to win the title unless our offense improves. Championship teams tend to rack up blow-out victories over the course of the season. SU has only broken 70 once during ACC play, while Duke has results like 95-60 (NC St) and 78-56 (FSU). I'd like to see a few score lines like that.
So we will learn a lot about the Orange this afternoon. And I do think the Orange will win this game. I think the zone plus the dome will suppress Duke's attack enough for SU to pull things out late, as per the usual. The Orange will need to score better than their 71.4 average to do it, so let's say 73-68 final, SU wins. But Duke snags a 2-seed by the end of the year and makes the Final Four.
It's not that we've played a horrible schedule, although this year's ACC is a huge step down from the gauntlet that the Big East was for the last 15 years. SU beat Villanova (#9) fairly easily for its best win of the season. The neutral site victory over Baylor was mildly impressive and it's always good to beat Jamie Dixon's Pitt (#19).
But in terms of talent on the roster, I'm not quite sure how good we are. When I look at the #1 Arizona Wildcats, for example, I see an unmatchable balance of talent, from big Aaron Gordon on out to leading scorer Nick Johnson. Kansas has the exceedingly good Andrew Wiggins and the increasingly frightening Joel Embiid, plus six wins over ranked opponents. Michigan State has been banged up, with only three guys playing in every one of their games this season, but they've still only lost twice. (What would SU's record be if Boeheim had to deal with injuries to anyone besides DaJuan Coleman?)
I think that Arizona, Kansas, and Michigan State are all better than Syracuse. I'm quite certain about that, actually. Not that we can't beat them (that's why they play the game, etc.), but those guys have more talent.
Then there is a pack of teams that may or may not be better than us. Florida, Wichita St., San Diego St., Oklahoma St., Kentucky, and probably a few more. Duke is in that group, too, which brings me to today's opponent. Would Syracuse still be undefeated if we played Duke's schedule? No way. Duke lost to Kansas and Arizona, and then dropped two road games in the ACC. A win today would be a giant step for the Orange to go undefeated at home, but they'll lose on the road eventually, at Pittsburgh and/or at Cameron Indoor and/or at Virginia and/or at somewhere more surprising.
Duke will have the best player on the court in Jabari Parker. I'm rather excited to see him play. Quite excited. Trying-to-quiet-my-latent-inner-Duke-fan excited. The Carmelo Anthony comparisons started early, and I think it's very possible that this Duke team might be the equivalent to the 2003 Syracuse team if Jabari goes nuts in March. Parker's averages - 18.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG - suggest he's at best a poor man's Melo - 22.2 and 10.0.
Duke also has Rodney Hood, a guy who can score from anywhere on the court, and who would definitely crack SU's starting five (bumping Cooney). And Coach K has his usual supporting cast of above-average jump shooters: Dawkins, Sulaimon, and Thornton. Their weakness, especially against the Orange, is their height. In recent years, K has just thrown a Plumlee brother in the middle and called it a night, only his current Plumlee (Marshall) is crap. Look for Christmas to have a decent day on offense, and the rest of the Orange attack should be able to attack the rim if they can beat the pesky Coach K man-to-man defending.
OK, I've gone long enough without saying anything nice about the Orange. I do love this team. Tyler Ennis plays PG like Don Draper drinks whiskey: smooth, elegant, and confident. He's the best pure PG to step on the court for the Orange since Jason Hart. His quiet command of the team reminds me of Billy Edelin during the championship run, and his sense of when it's time for him to get to the hoop reminds me of Allen Griffin, only he's WAY more talented than either of those guys. Also, Louie McCroskey has nothing to do with anything, but I just thought I'd mention his name here, because he once groined Hilton Armstrong in the face.
C.J. Fair's midrange game is awesome, and Jerami Grant's shooting is improving there as well. Fair would be a deserved ACC player of the year. And don't look now, but Chad Ford (ESPN Insiders only) has Grant going ahead of Ennis in the NBA draft.
SU is very, very good. But they don't yet have the feel of a true contender, at least not to me. And they have some flaws, glaring ones that pop out at me every time I click on their ESPN team page. Those four basic per game offensive stats listed in big black numbers are not impressive at all: 188th in PPG, 147th in RPG, 192th in APG, 116th in FG%. I always see those bad rankings when I click on my link. I wish there was some way I could make the default stats be SU's defensive numbers, because when you click on that tab, they pop off the charts: 6th in points allowed, 284th in RPG (oops, not that one), 50th in BPG, and 10th in SPG. It's no secret that's the end of the court where we make our hay.
Our defense will carry us far, but it'll be tough to win the title unless our offense improves. Championship teams tend to rack up blow-out victories over the course of the season. SU has only broken 70 once during ACC play, while Duke has results like 95-60 (NC St) and 78-56 (FSU). I'd like to see a few score lines like that.
So we will learn a lot about the Orange this afternoon. And I do think the Orange will win this game. I think the zone plus the dome will suppress Duke's attack enough for SU to pull things out late, as per the usual. The Orange will need to score better than their 71.4 average to do it, so let's say 73-68 final, SU wins. But Duke snags a 2-seed by the end of the year and makes the Final Four.
posted by Prof. A at 1:26 PM
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