Cheering for the Autumnal Colors

If Syracuse shoots well, Butler won't be able to keep up with them. After that, Kansas St is not a bad match-up without A-O. Their strength is their guards. Of course, THEY would be delighted at SU not having A-O. A big reason they lost 3 games to Kansas was Cole Aldrich's defense inside. But Kansas State isn't used to the zone. And no one is used to Wes Johnson leaving his man and coming across the lane to try deflecting shots around the hoop. Does anyone do that better? I'm not sure if he's doing it more or I'm noticing it more, but I saw it a bunch of times against Gonzaga, even though he only ended with one block.

But back to Butler... well-coached... low-scoring games... tend to exert their will in the 2nd half... they're not a mid-major Pitt, are they? Ultimately, though, I'm less nervous about this game than the Gonzaga game. The Zags might even have more talent than the Bulldogs.

I, alas, will not get to see much of the Syracuse-Butler game. I'll be in the dome watching the East Regional semifinals which, for some brilliant reason, were scheduled to overlap SU's games. And since the NCAA refuses to allow the dome to show the games on a large public screen, the best I can hope for is peering into a private box to catch the action. If you have my cell number, please text me updates! But here's my rationale: the worst case scenario is that Syracuse loses tonight. If I don't see that happen, it will be less depressing then if I did. If they win, I'll be able to watch them Saturday, although it will once again have to be somewhere around the dome.

Meanwhile, the Cornell-Kentucky game is getting just as much hype as the Syracuse game here in town. Last night I crashed a Cornell rally and shook hands with Ryan Wittman, Jeff Foote, and Coach Donahue. It was very exciting. Wittman is taller than me, Foote is much taller, but Donahue is shooter. Other than that, I didn't learn much. I think Cornell might be better than Northern Iowa (Dr. Paul, Cornell class of '04, thinks the Big Red are definitely superior). Say what you will about John Calipari, he's a good game coach and the Wildcats won't be surprised. Still, I really believe the Big Red can hang in this thing. Obviously, if they keep shooting like they have, there is no reason they can't. As an upstate New York team, Cornell is legally required to throw a zone out there on occasion, so watch out for how John Wall and Co. deal with that.

The Kansas-Cornell game when the Big Red played the Jayhawks tough is revealing. Wittman hit 5 threes, and Foote was able to get 12 points against Cole Aldrich even without Aldrich getting into foul trouble. Sherron Collins went nuts for 33 points, saving Kansas that night. John Wall is not quite as explosive, so I think it comes down to whether the big forwards for Kentucky, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson, get it going. Foote is a nice player, but he won't be able to handle both of them without a great game plan from Donahue.

Go Orange. Go Big Red.

Day 3: What do we know?

How great are brackets? I (heart) brackets! Today, for a couple hours, we were all Panthers!! A few hours earlier, we got to be Gaels!! I love it! But, most importantly, what did we learn? (And what are we still wondering about?)

• We learned mid-major teams shoot threes like babies poop. It doesn't matter when or where; if they feel like it, they'll do it. (Hope these YouTube clips still work when you click them... They're delightful.)
  

Example #1 - St. Mary's's...'s...'s Mickey McConnell, with 17 seconds on the shot clock, steps back and launches a rainbow off the glass and in! I loved Verne and Raferty...
Verne: "WooooOOOOOW" (as the shot goes up, clearly thinking it was WAY off)
Verne: "OH NO! OH NO!" (If he was 50 years younger, he'd have added "he di'nt!")
Raf: "A HAIL MARY... FOR ST. MARY'S!! GOODNESS! A KISS TO BE REMEMBERED... POTENTIALLY!"
Love it! Love it! Love it!

Example #2 - St. Mary'ss'...s'...s' Matthew Dellavedova falls down (not on purpose...or WAS it?) then rolls back up and CANS IT!
Raf: "A little MAGIC! ...The GLOBIES are in town!!"

Example #3 - Northern Iowa's Ali Farokhmanesh. Will we ever forget that name? In NO strategy book is that a smart shot. That's the beauty of it. Even better, the Great Ali had missed all seven of his shots in the second half, six of them threes. "I was going to see if I could drive it, but then he backed off so far I thought I might as well shoot this one." Of course. Why wouldn't you?

• We know, as my brother pointed out, that the only thing standing between Bill Self and a Roy Williams-before-UNC-like reputation for choking more than winning in the Big Dance is a Memphis collapse. To put it another way, Kansas are a Memphis collapse away from a 32-year championship drought and a dark cloud-reputation as the tournament's biggest underachievers.

• We know Cole Aldrich is a stud, and was just starting to destroy the Panthers when he hurt his ankle. Plus, he's a monster on defense (although I don't think he would've blocked the Farokhmanesh). It seemed to me that Kansas wasn't being stubborn enough about getting Cole the ball, even after he started making those hook shots. It was like Kansas had so much talent that they felt they had to balance the scoring. Or perhaps they were so rushed to close the gap back down that they didn't take their time and get the big guy the ball. Ultimately, the blame for that falls on Self and Sherron Collins.
  

• We know Kansas State has great guards, and Jacob Pullen is deadly when he's hot. But can they beat a good team without getting front-court scoring? Can they beat a good team if The Beard is cold?

• We know Baylor's starting lineup is filled with studs. They proved it through the first 3 halves they played in this tournament. But if Old Dominion can make a game of it and outscore Baylor in the second half, does Baylor belong with the Elites? Lucky them, they now head to Houston.

• We know Butler is a great second half team, but so is Syracuse. Can the Bulldogs keep the score close enough in the first half of that potential match-up to be within striking distance of the Orange and keep their run going?

• Speaking of Butler, we know their coach Brad Stevens is excellent. I thought he did a great job with his substitution patterns down the stretch. Plus, Butler didn't panic going small with Matt Howard on the bench with four fouls, and Stevens knew right when it was time to get Howard back in. They may start slow, but the Bulldogs know how to finish games.
  

• We know Kentucky is red hot. Will they get a quality opponent before the Final Four?

• We know Tennessee looked good against teams with medium talent, but it's hard to imagine them beating Ohio State.

• We know Gonzaga has NBA-caliber talent in freshman forward Elias Harris and senior guard Matt Bouldin. We know Gonzaga is always a solid rebounding team (38.2 RPG ties them with Syracuse for 50th in the nation). We know Uncle Aku is sitting this one out. And we know Syracuse has to do the following to win:

-Keep Ricky out of foul trouble. The less time DaShonte Riley HAS to play, the better for Syracuse.
-Make it a high scoring game. Gonzaga likes to free-wheel too, so this could be a very entertaining game. Still, as we know, a fast-paced game is good for the Orange.
-Harass Bouldin on the perimeter. A few Zags can shoot the three, including forwards Harris and Bol Kong, but Bouldin makes this team click. He's their Sherron Collins.
-Take care of business. Survive and advance. Do work.

Day 2: What haven't we not learned?

Dear NCAA selection committee,

Thank you for seeding a very solid Vermont team, led by Marqus Blakely who could start for most of the teams in the tournament, at 16 against the Orange. Also, thank you for randomly giving Gonzaga a low 8-seed to meet SU in the second round. You guys are brilliant, and clearly weren't drunk when you seeded this tournament.

Sincerely,

Sarcastic in Syracuse

On to a brand new blog gimmick, "what haven't we not learned?"

• We haven't not learned that Cornell is good, and Wisconsin is bad. To paraphrase the late, great Patrick Swayze in Point Break, I want Cornell to play in the dome next week so bad it's like acid [he might have said ass, there] in your mouth.

• We haven't not learned that the declarations of the Big East's demise were premature.

• Also, we haven't not learned that the 1s and 2 seeds (except Villanova), are really, really good. Don't be surprised if the tourney is chalky, like Pepto Bismol, from here on out.

• We definitely haven't not learned that Xavier's Jordan Crawford is a stud. I think they pit Dump on Sunday. Wait. Scratch that. Reverse it. I think they dump Pitt on Sunday.
  

• New Mexico State didn't not NOT learn how to close a game. Yikes! I've never seen a team play the final two minutes with all five players running around with both hands around their necks. Too bad. Oh yeah, we didn't not know this before, but I wasn't not reminded that Izzo never fails to win in the first round.

• Finally, we haven't not learned not to take great days like Thursday for granted. It was a remarkable day for the tournament. We're halfway through, by number of games. But the quality of play just gets better from her, and there's still FIVE rounds left!
  

Day 1: What have we learned?

With two games still in action, what have we learned today?

• I don't buy the whole "The Big East was overrated" conclusion. This kind of thing happens to one or more conferences in the first round every year. Last year, for example, four ACC teams lost in the first round - a 4-seed, a 5-seed, and two 7-seeds. The ACC won the whole thing with North Carolina. However, I will buy, "the committee overrated some Big East teams."

• We did learn that Villanova is still playing poorly. Saint Mary's is going to give them a heckuva game! Heckuva!

• We learned that the MAC (Ohio) is dangerous. Well, at least Georgetown learned that. I already knew, I was just reminded of it. If there is a good side to the 96-team proposal under consideration, its that conferences like the MAC, the MVC (Northern Iowa), and the WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary's) will get multiple bids.

• We learned Marquette is mediocre, and Quincy Poindexter is more than just a sweet name.

• We learned Notre Dame was a crummy team that got hot, and should not have gotten a 6-seed.

• We learned Butler is legit. From an SU perspective, I fear them at least as much I fear Pitt or Kansas State, partly because the farther we go the more I'll believe we're playing well.

• We also learned Baylor is very dangerous, with a variety of weapons. From a Duke perspective, I fear them much more than I did yesterday. That will be an epic regional final.

• We learned, actually I noticed...um...BYU is one win away from getting to play in Salt Lake City! Jimmer-ny Fredette!!
  

• Finally, and most importantly, we learned we were right. This year really is watered down. This tournament is wide open. Anything is fair game. Northern Iowa knocking off Kansas? Cornell to the elite eight? Butler to the final four? A 1-seed going down? (AAAHHH! NOOOOOO!!!)
  

Predictions for tomorrow... (I know, these are useless with brackets already turned in. Oh well!)

• Big East goes 4-0.
• I like the 12-seeds more than ever... New Mexico State, Cornell, Utah State.
  
• Gonzaga wins big, and SU fans shudder collectively.
• A 1-seed could fall... Wait! No! I take it back! Aaaahhhh!!! Nooooo!!!
  
• Xavier wins big.
• There is always one blowout upset win in the first round... and it may have already happened with Ohio. But if it is going to happen again, I think it'll be...Siena.
• Memphis edges Mississippi in the NIT.

Happy March Madness!

Fun and Tourney Games

Note: I messed up my "Secret Mid-Major/Celebrity Crush" analogy two posts ago, so I fixed it waaaaaay at the bottom. OK...on to the blog.

First, a reminder on the illegality of gambling:

"Danny is an employee of the club. He can't work AND play, especially in something as illegal as this!"
-Judge Smails

Bracket pools are great, because anyone who understands the concept of "seeding" can participate competitively. But I've come across several other cool games you can play amongst a small group.

One game I used to play requires a foursome. Everyone drafts one 1-seed, one 2-seed, etc., with each participant alternating first pick. At the end, each person has a list of 16 teams to root for. Set up a scoring system - we gave 1 point for each win. The most points wins.

Here's another one. Since high school, my brother has been a part of an annual competition that requires a bit more research. Here are the rules:

1. Five participants draft 10 INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS.
2. Total points scored by your team of players over the course of the tournament wins.
3. Everyone has to draft one player from a team seeded 12 or worse.

To win, you have to balance picking top scorers with picking guys on teams that will go deep into the tournament.

My brother called me up for some advice on picking his team. Unfortunately, I've never been lucky enough to be a part of this delectable competition, so I'm no expert on the strategy. However, I do know a tiny bit about the college basketball landscape. So, to help Dan out, and to give Sports Sauna readers some "players to watch," here is a prediction for the top 50 TOTAL scorers for the 2010 tournament.

A few notes...

• Among the 5o players mentioned below are all of the top scorers coming into the tournament who play for teams that could realistically win at least a game, so this list doubles as a nice "players to watch" cheat sheet for the casual fan. No, I refuse to put Vermont's Marqus Blakely on this list.
  
• Seed, team, and points per game are noted.
• I was going to do this as a mock draft, but I decided that was too complicated so I've just rated them in order of players I would target if I was in Dan's league. Still, to make this an interesting read, I've broken it down into 10 groups of five and added informative and mildly entertaining comments after each bunch.

1. Sherron Collins - 1-Kansas - 15.6
2. John Wall - 1-Kentucky - 16.9
3. Jon Scheyer - 1-Duke - 18.6
4. Evan Turner - 2-Ohio St - 20.3
5. Wes Johnson - 1-Syracuse - 16.0

To win Dan's game, you have to go with the best odds of playing the most games, so the best player on the best team has to be number one, followed by the best player on the best team on the opposite side of the bracket. Scheyer edges Turner only because Ohio State has to get through Kansas to play more than four games. Rounding out the top scorers from the 1-seeds is Wes, who finally looked healthy in his last game.

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6. Jacob Pullen - 2-Kansas St - 18.9
7. Da'Sean Butler - 2-West Virginia - 17.4
8. Scottie Reynolds - 2-Villanova - 18.5
9. Kyle Singler - 1-Duke - 17.6
10. DeMarcus Cousins - 1-Kentucky - 15.3

The rest of the best scorers from the 2-seeds are listed here, with Pullen's beard giving him the edge. It's hard to believe, but Kyle Singler has quietly become underrated over the last part of the season.

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11. Nolan Smith - 1-Duke - 17.3
12. Patrick Patterson - 1-Kentucky - 14.7
13. Xavier Henry - 1-Kansas - 13.6
14. LaceDarius Dunn - 3-Baylor - 19.4
15. Cole Aldrich - 1-Kansas - 11.2

Gotta keep picking the 1-seeds. It's so easy to look past Baylor. I mean, it's freakin' Baylor! But that South bracket is so weak... Also, without checking, I'm pretty sure LaceDarius is pronounced exactly like it looks.

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16. Denis Clemente - 2-Kansas St - 16.2
17. Marcus Morris - 1-Kansas - 12.3
18. William Buford - 2-Ohio St -14.5
19. Greivis Vasquez - 4-Maryland - 19.5
20. Andy Rautins - 1-Syracuse - 11.7

Greivis Vasquez may sound like a Hispanic character from Harry Potter, but he's actually a killer scorer from Venezuela. Meanwhile, if Syracuse goes on a run, that means Andy is hot. (No, not THAT kind of hot!)

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21. Kris Joseph - 1-Syracuse - 11.3
22. Austin Freeman - 3-Georgetown - 16.7
23. Darington Hobson - 3-New Mexico - 16.2
24. Greg Monroe - 3-Georgetown - 16.1
25. Ashton Gibbs - 3-Pittsburgh - 15.8

On the other hand, maybe KJ will key an SU run. Ostensibly he has the most to gain from the A-O injury, but on the other hand he was already averaging 27 minutes, third most on the team. If Georgetown was the 3-seed in any other bracket, I'd like their chances of making the final four a lot more. And no, Darington Hobson isn't a stud from a Jane Austen novel... he's a stud for New Mexico.

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26. Tweety Carter - 3-Baylor - 15.7
27. Corey Fischer - 2-Villanova - 13.7
28. Kevin Jones - 2-West Virginia - 13.5
29. Chris Wright - 3-Georgetown - 14.8
30. Rick Jackson - 1-Syracuse - 10.0

On the third hand, maybe Ricky will go nuts during an SU run. Maybe HE has the most to gain from A-O's injury. He was brilliant during the Georgetown-Providence-Villanova high point of the season.

WAIT.

Hold everything.

Baylor has players named LaceDarius and Tweety?!? With 70s ABA names like those, they're making a run in this tournament. In fact, check out the other guys I just found on their roster...
(WARNING: excessive use of parentheses ahead!!)
(Note: I did little to no research on these guys, other than looking at the roster)
Ekpe Udoh (Nigerian center (even though he was born in OK))
Quincy Acy (perfect name for a glue guy)
Josh Lomers (backup white center (if Lomers is black, I'm going to be really disappointed))
A.J. Walton (token son of Bill Walton (if A.J. isn't related to Bill Walton, I'm going to be really disappointed))
Nolan Dennis (token guy with two first names a la Kris Joseph and Xavier Henry)
Dragan Sekelja (token Croatian center who they realized was a stiff AFTER they gave him a scholarship (Baylor should go see...How to Tame Your DRAGAN!!!))
AND the bench warming, walk-on odd couple... Oscar and Mr. Crump!

Wow. Needless to say, I am now rooting for Baylor.

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31. Luke Harangody - 6-Notre Dame - 22.4
32. Kalin Lucas - 5-Michigan St - 14.9
33. Eric Bledsoe - 1-Kentucky - 10.8
34. Donald Sloan - 5-Texas A&M - 18.2
35. Gordon Hayward - 5-Butler - 15.4

Notre Dame sure looked good down the stretch. They were all over the place this season. I could see them getting knocked off by Old Dominion. I could see them in the Final Four. Kalin Lucas could benefit from playing for the best tournament coach... maybe ever?? Tom Izzo has made the Sweet 16 eight times, and the final four five times. Hayward, just a sophomore, is going to win a handful of tourney games before his college career is done.

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36. Jimmer Fredette - 7-BYU - 21.7
37. Jordan Crawford - 6-Xavier - 19.7
38. Lazar Hayward - 6-Marquette - 18.1
39. Kevin Anderson - 7-Richmond - 17.8
40. Quincy Poindexter - 11-Washington - 19.8

Jimmer (let's all agree to call him by his sweet first name) scored 49 against Arizona and 45 against TCU this season. Lazar (let's all agree to call him by his sweet first name) has helped the Golden Eagles go 3-1 in OT games this season. And Quincy Poindexter (let's all agree to call him by his sweet full name) may play in the CRAP-10, but that doesn't mean Washington can't play to its potential and reach the Sweet 16 out of a weak pod.

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41. Xavier Silas - 9-Northern Iowa - 19.7
42. Ryan Wittman - 12-Cornell - 17.5
43. Jerome Randle - 8-California - 18.7
44. Tre'Von Willis - 8-UNLV - 17.3
45. Damion James - 8-Texas - 18.0

Northern Iowa is my super-duper, "Merlin approved," (I think Davs, who gets that joke, is the only one still reading a this point. Hi Davs! Miss you!) dark horse. The Missouri Valley Conference plays some good basketball, and NIU is good enough to play Kansas close on a neutral court. Cornell is Jay Bilas's super-duper, "Merlin approved," dark horse, and Wittman is their best player. By the way, anybody remember the origin of the term "dark horse?" I think I've read stories that say it comes from horse racing. Still, is anyone else afraid it has some horrible racial connotation? I mean, would you be comfortable saying, "Barack Obama was a dark horse Presidential candidate?" Me neither. Oh, you said "Yes I would be comfortable." Sorry, I mis-heard you.

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46. Jahmar Young - 12-New Mexico St - 20.5
47. Jonathan Gibson - 12-New Mexico St - 17.5
48. Randy Culpepper - 12-UTEP - 18.0
49. Aubrey Coleman - 13-Houston - 25.6
50. Anthony Johnson - 14-Montana - 19.6

Sweet sassy molassy, New Mexico State has TWO guys who score 17+ points per game? AND they've got the infamous 12-seed? Okay, I'm picking them to win a game in the rest of my brackets.


Finally, I totally screwed up the "Secret Mid-Major/Celebrity Crush" analogy I made on Sunday's post. Western Kentucky won a game in the tournament last year, and made the Sweet 16 the year before! Denise Richards peaked in 1999 as Christmas Jones in The World is Not Enough, unless you count her 2003 cameo in Love Actually. So here is my revised list...

Gonzaga is OBVIOUSLY Mila Kunis
The Zags made their first remarkable tournament run in the 1998-99 season...the same season That 70s Show came on the air! Since then, just when you think they're going away, Gonzaga and Family Guy come back stronger than ever. Gonzaga's and Mila's profiles have consistently risen, to the point where the Zags are perennially in the top-25 and Mila is getting the big bucks to play opposite Denzel Washington.

Butler is kinda Isla Fischer
The Bulldogs ALMOST broke out in a memorable first round game against the tournament's runner-up, Florida in 2000 while Isla was trying to break out on some random Australian TV shows and movies. Then in 2003 and 2007, Butler crashed the Sweet 16. In between, in 2005, Isla hit the big time in Wedding Crashers. Since then, both have risen towards elite status.

Western Kentucky is definitely Marisa Tomei
Their best moments are surprisingly few and far between over a long period...
1993: The Hilltoppers made the Sweet 16 the same month that Marisa won Best Supporting Actress for My Cousin Vinny.
1995: The Hilltoppers play to their 8-seed, winning only one game, then start regularly missing the tournament. Marisa is parlaying her Oscar into a string of forgettable films.
2001-03: Starts off promising for both, but in 3 tourney bids, WKU wins 0 games. In the Bedroom came out in 2001, and Marisa was brilliant in it, getting her second Oscar nomination, but she followed it up with... nothing much.
2008-09: Back to the Sweet 16 for the Hilltoppers in 2008, and another tourney win in 09. Back to the Oscars in 09 for Marisa with The Wrestler from 2008.

Eleven Teams I'd Rather Face than Vermont

If we all talk about it then it won't happen, right?

When Syracuse takes the court Friday night, it will be the 104th time a 1-seed has played a 16-seed. The 1-seed has never lost that match-up.

Going into 1991, no 2-seed had ever lost in the first round. Then the Richmond Spiders knocked off the Orange. Happily, I don't remember that event.

Someday, it will happen. A 1-seed will lose in the first round. Could it be the Orange?

It's preposterous, of course. Syracuse is really, really good. They won the toughest conference in the country. They've got a hall of fame coach. They've got a future NBA starter, maybe two depending on if Kris Joseph has made your head explode yet. They play great defense. They're ridiculously balanced on offense.

Finally, and most importantly, they're playing in Buffalo. Normally, the underdog gets the crowd behind them if they keep the game close. But in Buffalo Syracuse fans should dominate. Come on Buffalo! Be loud!

There is the injury to dear old Uncle Aku. That is a serious problem, and the second biggest reason I'm worried about this game.

The biggest reason is the opponent. Vermont. March 18, 2005. Sorrentine. Coppenrath. THAT game I do remember, though I didn't watch it. I was sitting in a back hallway of the Albany Pepsi Center (now the Times Union Center), monitoring the computers for the XMIevents.com webcast of the ECAC men's hockey semifinals. Cornell was playing against...yup...Vermont. They kept announcing the score over the loudspeaker, and the Vermont fans would cheer. It was the only thing they could cheer about, with their team ultimately losing 3-0. Even though it might have affected the bandwidth over which we were streaming live video, I pulled up ESPN.com's text play-by-play. When the game went into overtime, I was sure SU was going to pull it out. Didn't happen. The Catamounts outscored the Orange 9-6. Going in, I was so certain SU was going to win that game, and I was going to have several more chances to watch Hak, my all-time favorite Orangeman. Instead, he finished his college career while I was sitting alone in the bowels of the Pepsi Center, refreshing the web page in disbelief.

So what about the 2010 Catamounts? Coppenrath is gone. Sorrentine is gone. Their coach, Tom Brennan, is working for ESPN. How good could they be? Well, Lunardi had them as a 15-seed, not a 16. Plus, they've got a really nice player in Marqus Blakely, a senior, who is the kind of guy that could give us all nightmares for the rest of our lives. He averages 17 points, 9 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. The only thing he doesn't do is shoot the three. Okay, so the zone should take care of him, right? But what if it doesn't?

Blakely shot 297 free throws this season, or 8.7 per game. For comparison, KJ got to the line 107 times this season, the most on the Orange at 3.3 times per game. What if Blakely gets Ricky in foul trouble? What if DaShonte Riley has to play major minutes? What if HE gets in foul trouble?

Vermont isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but anyone can get hot. Their best shooter is another senior named Maurice Joseph. Born in Montreal, Joseph played two seasons at Michigan State before transferring to Vermont. He also happens to be KJ's older brother. Perfect. What if KJ has a psychological block? What if Maurice goes off playing against his little bro?

Okay, I'm sorry. I'm driving you, me, and the people who occasionally post spam ads on this blog crazy. Still, I'd rather face another team. Like who? Like these chumps and chumpettes...

1. Ark-Pine Bluff: Started the season 0-11.
2. East Tennessee State: They play a zone. How cute!
3. Lehigh: The Patriot League champs...pleeease...
4. Winthrop: Knocked off Notre Dame in the first round in 2007. This year, they couldn't hold Clemson to less than 100 points.
5. Robert Morris: Coaches philosophy - "To be honest with you, I have no idea what we do sometimes on offense. My whole thing is defend."
6. UC-Santa Barbara: Saint Barbara is a women's college basketball fan.
7. Morgan State: Literally, no inside game.
8. North Texas: You know what's weird? The team's mascot is the Mean Green, and "Mean" Joe Greene is an alumus!
9. Oakland: A rematch against a team we beat by 32? Yes please!
10. Sam Houston St: They love to run, which would play right into SU's Onuaku-less hands.
11. Texas: What? I'm serious! Bring 'em on!

Notent Notables - I (heart) brackets

I love Championship weekend. I had basketball on all weekend in background while I was grading midterms. I paid attention for the last few minutes of every close game. This evening, I thoroughly enjoyed the selection show for the first time since before the conspiracy of 2007. (Even last year, there was that tiny kernel of doubt...ugh. Scarred for life.) Now, I'm ready to bathe in the brackets. Here are my thoughts on SU, favorites, dark-horses, Cinderellas, Thad Matta, the Butler Bulldogs, and everything else I love about March.

(Note: I originally posted this Sunday night, then did some editing Monday afternoon.)

• The Duke-over-Syracuse controversy is only annoying to me in the post-2007 world. The other issue I have with the bracket is the Mississippi State snub. Ultimately, I have three problems with the way the committee chooses team. First of all, I don't like the make-up of the committee. I mean, look at these characters. "The dance of the living dead!" as the late, great Rodney Dangerfield/Al Czervik would put it. You're telling me athletic directors and conference commissioners, who have to manage rowing teams and volleyball tournaments, know more about college basketball than you or me? Let's get some coaches, or at least ex-coaches who know the intricacies of the game in there. Let's get some journalists into the room, who have less to gain or lose from the selection process.

• Another major problem with the selection process is consistency. The members of the committee serve five year terms, so the group is always made up mostly of holdovers. Still, they've made a lot of head scratching moves. Last year, Saint Mary's was the most infamous snub, missing apparently because their WCC schedule was too weak. This year, Utah State and UTEP edged out Illinois, Virginia Tech, and Mississippi State. Back in 2004, OK State won the Big 12 championship on selection Sunday, finishing with a 27-3 record while Duke lost the ACC championship to Maryland and finished 27-5. When Duke got the fourth 1-seed over OK-State, everyone wondered if the committee had even bothered to consider the Big 12 championship.

Apparently, Duke got the edge over Syracuse for the shorter trip to Houston (and the weakest bracket) because they won the ACC tournament while SU was bounced in the first round and its starting center has a day-to-day knee injury. Duke's 3 conference tourney wins came over powerhouses like Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech. Tech is the only tourney team of the bunch, and got a lower seed then all three of the teams that gave SU its four losses on the season: Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Georgetown. The conference tournament counts!

Meanwhile, Mississippi State lost in overtime of its conference tournament to the second best team on the committee's board, Kentucky. That game only went into overtime when Kentucky tied the game with a fraction of a second to go. It beat two tournament teams along the way: 10-seed Florida and 4-seed Vanderbilt. The conference tournament doesn't count! (Certainly, a team's actual on-the-court performance in its most recent games isn't considered. Why would it be? Well, it is for some, but not for others.)

Whatever. We'll forget about those crappy teams that missed the tournament soon. Still, the committee could be better. Here's my idea:

What if Joe Lunardi and four other Bracketologists put the bracket together? And what if the bracket Lunardi posted every week wasn't just his best guess, it was the official tournament bracket? And what if Lunardi and Co. released updated brackets daily every day of Championship Week? CBS would lose out on the ratings of the selection show, but college basketball's regular season would gain attention as the casual fan gained an appreciation for way regular season games affect the post-season. You know how college football fans claim they have the best regular season of any sport because it feels like every week matters? It'd be closer to that, only with a tournament at the end that fairly determines a champion. What's the problem?

• Okay, that was a long Notable...I'll make them shorter. My other suggestion for the committee: consider head-to-head results. I know its imperfect because so few teams play head-to-head. Still, I would have been furious if West Virginia had edged Syracuse for a 1-seed because the Orange beat the Mountaineers in the regular season. If teams are really close on the committee's board, head-to-head can factor in, with the most recent meeting breaking any ties.
  

• But enough complaining. It's time for my first prediction: Evan Turner will make the #1 draft pick a heavy debate between him and John Wall by the end of the tournament.

• I know I was down on West Virginia before. I changed my mind. Don't get me wrong, Huggins is still a weak game coach. Da'Sean Butler makes up for it though. I should've learned this before he took over the Garden this weak. Against Syracuse, he realized in the second half, "Geez, my coach's offensive planning doesn't make any sense. I better take this game over or we're going to lose!" Butler shot poorly in that game, but he contributed across the box score and hit some key shots down the stretch. Now he's playing better than ever. I think they get to the Elite Eight at least.

• Look out Villanova. They're playing poorly; clearly they're the weakest 2-seed. And in the second round, Richmond could spring an upset. They've got a little guard, Kevin Anderson, who can really catch fire.

• I love Butler. They're my secret mid-major crush... my "Mila Kunis," if you will. But a 5-seed seems really high. I don't understand how the Bulldogs get a 5, but Gonzaga gets an 8 and Cornell gets a 12. (While we're at it, Gonzaga is Isla Fisher and Western Kentucky is Denise Richards, because the Hilltoppers haven't made a run recently, but they retain a place in my heart. Also, the Hilltopper is insanely awesome, while Denise is just insane.)
  
• Speaking of mid-majors, Siena gets flailing 4-seed Purdue. The Boilermakers literally played like crap Saturday.

• Setting aside my love of the Orange, if I could go to every game at one 1st and 2nd round location, I would go to Spokane or Providence. In Spokane, Siena and Utah State could both spring upsets, and if the other pod goes chalk, you get Tom Izzo v. Gary Willliams in round 2. In Providence, you've got the weakest 2-seed (Nova) with one of two good mid-majors looming in the second round. The other Providence pod has a solid San Diego State taking on a streaky Tennessee team. Georgetown could make a run in the tournament, but never underestimate the Mwacky MAC, as I like to call them. This year Ohio survived the MAC bloodbath, and draws the Hoyas.

• Duke beware. A 16-seed has never beaten a 1-seed, of course. But I would like to bring up my play-in game theory prediction: the first 16-seed to pull off the upset will come out of the play-in game. It gives them a chance to build momentum and get comfortable in the arena. Of course, whenever there has been a close 16-1 game, it hasn't been the 16 coming from the play-in game. So I'm probably wrong. (Vermont! A 16-seed! AAHH!)

• Kentucky has some fabulous talent, but they seem to play down to their opponents. The Miss St game didn't make any sense on in the background. Over and over, I'd look up and see the Wildcats making some ridiculous offensive play, but somehow they trailed most of the game. They'll catch a team playing well - Temple, maybe - and lose before the Final Four.

• Potential George Mason (double-digit seed that makes a deep run): Hmmm... I'll go with Old Dominion. They've got tourney experience. Plus, they play in George Mason's conference

• Potential Harold "The Show" Arceneaux (player on tiny school who wins a game or two): Aubrey Coleman, guard, 13-seed Houston. Can I interest you in the nation's leading scorer at 25.6 ppg? What if I told you he bested his own scoring average against major teams like Memphis (W), Oklahoma (W), Miss St (L), Iowa St. (L), and Memphis (W) again? Does that do anything for you?

• Potential 2003 Syracuse (3 or 4-seed that gets hot and wins it all): Has to be 3-seed Georgetown, right? When they play well, they can beat anyone. Rebounding is literally their Achilles heel, though.

• As for the Orange, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw they had Vermont in the 1st round, followed by Gonzaga, likely, in the 2nd. Then I reminded myself they are playing in Buffalo, and that Vermont of 2010 isn't Vermont of 2005. Further down the road, I do not want to face Pittsburgh again. My buddy Dr. Paul says he's not afraid to face Pitt at this point, but if Pitt makes it that far, that means they're playing well. And if they're playing well, they have SU's number. Luckily, I think they'll get knocked off before then. Kansas State is tough, but so are most of the 2-seeds. I would both love (it'd be a good game) and hate (it'd be a good game) to play them in round 4. Kansas would probably be waiting in the Final Four, but you have to beat the best to be the best. And the Best get Better, etc., etc.

• Ultimately, I'm standing by the gut feeling I've had about SU all season. They could be a final four team if they play their best, but there are too many explosive teams standing between the Orange and the championship. In 2003, I told everyone before the tournament that the field was wide open, and we could be the ones who got hot and won it all. This year I feel like its the opposite; the field is wide open, and we're the kind of team that gets knocked off by the hot team. I'd be satisfied with Elite Eight and out in a great game against K-State or Pitt. I'd be happy with the Final Four. And beyond that... ...

• Initial bracket picks: The Elite Eight! Kansas over Ohio State. Syracuse over Kansas State. West Virginia over Temple. Duke over...who knows? Notre Dame, maybe?! (That's right, all four 1-seeds make the final 4. I'll probably change my mind by Thursday.)

• The championship: Kansas over West Virginia. I'm sick of the experts saying..."There are no great teams this year. Kansas is as close as you get." Kansas is great. They'll win it all.

Fear is Good

I'm nervous about the Georgetown game tomorrow. It's tough to beat your rival three times in the same season. Georgetown could come out trying to get SU in foul trouble like the last game when the Hoyas almost stole a win late.

Plus, there is the stink of the Louisville game on the Orange. Has Pitino figured out a way to beat Syracuse? Toss up 40 threes and crash the boards? Georgetown is a much better 3-pt shooting team than Louisville (.388 to .334). The good news is Georgetown is the worst offensive rebounding team in the conference, at 9.6 rpg. Hopefully the Hoyas will shoot and miss. Hopefully.

Gone is the confidence I had - and the whole city had - less than a week ago. Gone is the swagger of being #1. As I type this, Cincinnati is finishing off Louisville in the Garden. Cincy! The NIT-bound Bearcats beat the team that just beat the Orange! Ugh. Syracuse is vulnerable. Syracuse can be beat.

Then again, anybody can be beat. There is no superpower in college basketball. Plenty of teams could beat even mighty Kansas if the Jayhawks merely bring their B-game to a neutral court. That is the reality of 2010, and the reality of March Madness almost every year. Last week was fun, but whether or not SU really is the best team in the country, Orange nation was fooling itself. We are vulnerable. We can be beat.

Fear is good. My dad always argues that Boeheim teams play better as underdogs. That's his explanation for this season; it had to be a team unranked at the start of the year to break a two-decade drought and crack #1 in the polls. Perhaps that's why Syracuse was #1 in the 87-88 preseason poll... and never again that season. Perhaps that's why Boeheim won the championship with a 3-seed in a tournament with 15 or more teams that could've been the one to get hot and win it all.

I didn't really buy into the claims that those earlier losses were somehow good for the Orange. This time, though, I think the humbling loss at Louisville came at just the right moment. I think Wes, Rautins, Uncle Aku and the rest of the guys now remember that they can lose if they play poorly. They have a reason be afraid.

For a long time I heard a lot of athletes claim that fear was their biggest motivation to improve - fear of personal failure, fear of defeat - without really understanding what they meant. It always sounded like they were fooling themselves. They were at the height of their sport, playing games for millions of dollars, or at least for the adoration of their college's community. What did they really have to fear?

Then I started my PhD. For the first time in my life, I found school challenging. (I don't mean to sound arrogant. Bear with me, I'm making a point. I was always good at school, tests, papers, and whatnot. But whatever. I'm sure you're better than me at lots of things that are much more important in the grand scheme of things than school. For example, I live in my parents' basement. Feel better? Good.) I found myself surrounded with people who seemed to be grasping historical concepts and theories better than I was. I began to doubt whether I was smart enough to get a history PhD. Unfortunately, I didn't have any better career ideas at the moment. And I was already living in my parents' basement. That's when I decided to keep on truckin'. I even made "keep on truckin'" my New Year's Resolution for 2009.

More specifically, I got to work. I read the assignments - hundreds and hundreds of pages a week. Some of the stuff was interesting and, occasionally, entertaining. But my biggest motivation was that I didn't want to look like an idiot in class, in front of my peers and my professors. And that's when I finally started to understand how fear motivates. I also started to see it in the discussion sections I was TA'ing. My students almost never speak up unless they are CERTAIN what they are saying is correct. No one likes to be wrong in front of a group. I've learned to both try to use that fear to get them to work, and to try to minimize that fear by being super-nice and encouraging when they say something stupid.

On Saturday Syracuse was beaten on national television. There is a very good chance that if you and I are afraid about this Georgetown game, they are too. You know what Georgetown fans are thinking? "I wish SU hadn't lost to Louisville because they're too good to lose two in a row." You know what Georgetown players might be thinking? "We've lost to SU twice. I'm not sure we can beat these guys." That's doubt. Doubt is different from fear. Doubt is bad and distracting. Fear is truth. Fear motivates. Fear is good.

OK, OK... so my brilliant analysis has convinced you its good for the Orange. But what about you and me? We can't use this fear for motivation! Well, here's two things that might help:

1. The Kryptonite theory: Louisville seems to be Kryptonite to the 2009-10 Orange just like UConn was Kryptonite to the 2002-03 Orange. It's extremely possible SU is kryptonite to the 2009-10 Georgetown. Moreover, Georgetown is not a great basketball team. If SU is just a little Kryptonite-y for the Hoyas, the Orange will be fine. Plus, the game is in the Garden! We love the Garden! We're probably not going to lose.

2. What if we do lose? Sure, the 2-game losing streak into the tourney is a bummer. But SU isn't going to lose in the first round, so the winning will pick right back up. Will the Orange lose the 1-seed? I've stared at the numbers, and I think the 1-seed is just about locked up. The only strike against SU would be the 2-game losing streak to end the season. In all other categories, SU will have an edge over everyone besides Kansas and Kentucky.

And even if the Orange does fall to a 2-seed... does it really matter? It might even be better. SU will be that much further below the radar, just where Boeheim likes to be. At their best, the Orange can beat anyone. Maybe the fear as a 2-seed will help them play their best.

Email Round Table: Looking Ahead

If you're wondering, I'm predicting a blowout win for the Orange, followed by Uncle Aku grabbing the public address mike and announcing, "Freedom Hall is now closed!"

In the broader scheme of things, I've kinda run out of things to say about the team. Luckily, my college buddies and I had a little email chain this week. So...I'm just going to copy and paste that. First, let's introduce the cast...

Moore: Former Harlem Globetrotter's PA announcer and general fount of sports wisdom.
Grossman: If not the coolest kid in our frat then second to "The Dude."
Chaves: The realist. If SU losses, his explanation is always, "We suck."
Chris: Sports Sauna contributor emeritus.
Me: The blabber-mouth.

By the way, I copy and pasted this quickly, so don't blame me for any grammar or spelling errors. (Bethany, I'm looking at you.) Here we go...

Moore: Assuming we get a No. 1 seed (I think the only way we don't is if we lose to Louisville and in our first BET game), which of the potential 2 seeds would you most like to see in our region?


Grossman: Purdue... No question!


Chaves: Yeah, good call. I also wouldn't mind someone we already played. Nova, or if osu squeaks into a 2. Maybe pitt. Wvu worries me if they get one, and its us.


Moore: I can't wait to see the zone against non-BE teams.


Me: West Virginia is a joke. Huggins is a nice recruiter, but he couldn't coach his way out of Pita Pit. He still hasn't figured out that we play a 2-3 zone and not man-to-man. I'd love to see them in our bracket because they'll be upset before the regional finals.

In general though I'd rather not see any Big East teams. I also have a rule of thumb where I generally want to avoid anyone with a player whose name I know (OSU-Evan Turner, K State-Jacob Pullen). Give me Vandy (although I'll probably recognize someone on the Commodores), New Mexico, or Purdue. James Harden-Az St. is the exception that proves the rule.


Chris: Isn't there some rule against stacking conference teams against each other in a single bracket? Maybe not.

I'm with Paul in regards to West Virginia. I would love to play against Bobby Huggins. Seriously, homeboy always seems shocked about the zone. It's crazy. It's true.

The type of team I want to avoid is a team like Purdue was: super aggressive on their own defensive end, and capable at shooting threes. Syracuse, as always, is long and relatively strong. As always, however, Syracuse is not particularly quick on the offensive end.

Scoop and Joseph are able to drive against defenders who are half-quick. But if another team has two super quick defenders, our offensive grinds to a relative halt: we have to pass for penetration, and we're not very good at that.


Grossman: Of all the possible twos Kansas state and duke scare me the most. Kstate has a lot of big lanky athletes and duke has shooters and a couple big guys. I'll check them out first hand at the md game and let you all know what I think. While both these teams could also bump up to 1 seeds, they are not ideal matchups for us. Another possible concern I have is that we get placed in the south with a 4 seed Texas and a two seed kstate, that's a scary setup... Of all the years to be a one seed, we have to have the regionals at the dome... Duke, UNC get to play in Greensboro every year!!! F--- them!


Moore: Well, I must say, this is righteous payback for being a 3 seed in '03 and getting to go to Albany to face Oklahoma...


Me: Duke and K-State are probably the two non-Big East teams I've watched the most this year, the former because I like em and the latter because their home games made for great TV this season. Duke is not scary. I think they'd give us a good game, but Coach K wins with defense and I just don't think their defense is strong enough to stop SU this year. Our bigs are better, and I'd love watching Singler try to guard KJ or Wes. They'd probably draw double-digit charges though.

K-State...part of me doesn't take them seriously, part of me really fears the beard. I could see Pullen having the game of his life and pulling off an epic upset.

The you-can't-play-at-home-but-you-can-play-basically-at-home rule is pretty crappy. I don't know what the answer is. Kansas will probably get seeded in the midwest (St. Louis) which means we'll have to win 2 games in Salt Lake City or Houston. It's not saying much, but for a medium-large private school, we have a pretty decent national following.


Grossman: As of this moment, I can say definitively, from first hand experience, there is no way we would lose to duke... A bunch of tall unathletic floppers!!!


Chris: And that's why the U.S. can beat England on June 12.


Grossman: Hold the phone... Nolan smith is good! (BTW Chris, I'll be at that game June 12... )


Moore: With Cuse kicking the snot out of Nova, Kansas kicking the snot out of K-State, Purdue losing their 2nd best player, and Duke losing to MD, are there even many teams below SU, UK, and KU that people think can win it all?


Chaves: I think KU and SU are the choices. UK can't shoot the three or free throws well enough to be considered a top tier contender.


Chris: UK has more talent than everybody else, though. I think we could take 'em, because they've never seen a zone like this, but they scare me.


Me: If the question is darkhorses...

Michigan St, purely because of Izzo's tourney success
Pitt, defense
Notre Dame - Ewing Theory is rockin'
Gonzaga - everyone is sleeping on them this year
Ohio State - It's highly possible Evan Turner is the best player in the tourney
Northern Iowa - I want nothing to do with them