The Contenders
I'm writing this before I fill out my Sheet of Integrity. In reverse order, who I think could win it all, why, and why not...
10. Drake
Why: Fear the Missouri Valley Conference. FEAR IT! I know nothing about these guys, except they won the conference championship by 30 points. Oh, and their best player was a walk-on for three years before getting a scholarship this year and turning into the conference player of the year. This year, as in most, the committee was really stingy with the mid-major teams. I almost believed there was a conspiracy by the power conferences against the middies when I saw Gonzaga matched with Davidson and Butler matched with South Alabama in the first round, ensuring that two potential mid-major Cinderellas get knocked out. To earn this 5-seed (against, of course, another solid mid-major team, W. Kentucky), Drake must have REALLY impressed the committee. They must be good. If a mid-major is going to make a deep run this year, this is the best bet.
Why not: No tournament experience. That's a huge knock against them making a run. Also, they're Drake.
9. Louisville
Why: Do you remember Louisville making the Final Four a mere 3 years ago? Me neither. But they did. You can look it up. Pitino is a great coach, and has improved his team vastly over the course of the season. Like the other top tier Big East teams, these guys do it with defense. The press/zone is really clicking.
Why not: Their top scorer, Padgett, averages 11.7 points. That's hideous. This offense is not good enough to make the deep run some of the experts are predicting. In fact, I originally had these guys a few slots down until I took a second look at their player stats.
8.Texas
Why: Once they reach the sweet 16, they'll play every game in Texas. They've got outstanding guards.
Why not: I just don't buy them. I don't think Augustin is good enough to carry them. I think Rick Barnes is a sub-par coach. Most of all, the Big 12 has just one title in over 50 years. Did you realize that? The conference is clearly overrated, especially in March. This Texas team is not going to be the one to disrupt that trend.
7. Tennessee
Why: Bruce Pearl is a really charismatic guy. No but seriously, this is a good team. They've beaten a lot of good teams over the course of the season. Chris Lofton might be the best shooter in the tournament.
Why not: Chris Lofton is their best player. He's too one dimensional to be That Guy who carries the team to a title. At the end of the day, this is a live by the three, die by the three team. And even with all those impressive non-conference wins, I don't think they'll survive a loaded region.
6. Kansas
Why: A lot of depth and a lot of talent. Arthur and Rush will both play in the NBA. They lead America in scoring margin, a key stat for predicting tournament success.
Why not: And good heavens they've been horrendous in the tournament! Brandon Rush is not great enough to carry them. See also: the Big 12 stat under Texas above.
5. Duke
Why: When they beat the Tar Heels at Chapel Hill in the first meeting this year, they were the best team in the nation at that moment. That was a dominant display. Coach K has changed his style this year, going with a deeper bench than ever before, and they all can play. Several players can lead them in scoring on any given night. Paulus has improved as a point guard, and is finally showing signs of the clutch shooting he was known for at CBA (Syracuse). I love Scheyer. Finally, no one is paying any attention to them.
Why not: They've got a bunch of great players, but they lack that one personality that puts them over the top. DeMarcus Nelson is a fine college basketball player, but he isn't that guy. Duke hasn't been "Duke" in a few years.
4. Memphis
Why: Great starting five with perhaps the best offense in the tournament. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a stud, and Derrick Rose could be a great NBA PG. Callipari is a great coach.
Why not: Two huge reasons. First, I don't believe playing a Conference-USA season has made Memphis battle tested enough to win six straight. Look at it this way: after their first round game, every game will be harder than any they played in the conference this year. Second, they're terrible free throw shooting. That is not necessarily fatal...unless you are as bad as this team is.
3. Georgetown
Why: This was my pick at the beginning of the season, and they've held up their end so far, winning the toughest conference. They've got a nice balance on offense with Hibbert inside and three-point shooting on the perimeter. Their coach is an offensive genius: when the Hoyas are clicking, it's beautiful to watch. Having said all that, the Hoyas win with defense. Everyone plays hard and well on that end of the court. Hibbert could use a strong tournament to vault into the NBA draft lottery.
Why not: Hibbert's had a terrible year. He disappears on offense, be it his fault, his teammate's, or JTIII's. If he has a bad game, and the perimeter shooting doesn't pick up the slack, the Hoyas will lose, whether they're playing Kansas or Maryland-Baltimore County.
2. North Carolina
Why: I'll admit it; Tyler Hansborough has been the best player in college basketball this year. When the best player in basketball has great talent around him, that very often leads to the title. I don't believe a dominant post player is the difference-maker in the championship. You have to have a guard that can take over the game. Carolina has a couple of them. Based on the buzz I'm hearing, this is the favorite to win it all.
Why not: Roy Williams. Even post-championship, he proved he still has the touch of death with the Georgetown debacle last year. Even though they get to stay in Carolina, that East bracket is tough, with perhaps the strongest 2-seed and 3-seed. Even the 4 or 5-seed could be trouble.
1. UCLA
Why: The last couple weeks my gut has been saying UCLA. I said it before the Sports Guy did today: Ben Howland might be the best coach in college basketball right now. After two straight final four appearances, both ending with losses to Florida, it's time for Howland to take these guys over the top. They win with defense, with everyone chipping in on offense. They have at least three starters who could be drafted. Coming out of the Pac-10, which is stronger than it has been for a while, they feel like a team of destiny with their success in close games.
Why not: They've played a lot of close games down the stretch. It takes as much luck as skill to make three straight final fours. They're a little banged up. Frankly, I'm not sold on them. But there's no one else...
10. Drake
Why: Fear the Missouri Valley Conference. FEAR IT! I know nothing about these guys, except they won the conference championship by 30 points. Oh, and their best player was a walk-on for three years before getting a scholarship this year and turning into the conference player of the year. This year, as in most, the committee was really stingy with the mid-major teams. I almost believed there was a conspiracy by the power conferences against the middies when I saw Gonzaga matched with Davidson and Butler matched with South Alabama in the first round, ensuring that two potential mid-major Cinderellas get knocked out. To earn this 5-seed (against, of course, another solid mid-major team, W. Kentucky), Drake must have REALLY impressed the committee. They must be good. If a mid-major is going to make a deep run this year, this is the best bet.
Why not: No tournament experience. That's a huge knock against them making a run. Also, they're Drake.
9. Louisville
Why: Do you remember Louisville making the Final Four a mere 3 years ago? Me neither. But they did. You can look it up. Pitino is a great coach, and has improved his team vastly over the course of the season. Like the other top tier Big East teams, these guys do it with defense. The press/zone is really clicking.
Why not: Their top scorer, Padgett, averages 11.7 points. That's hideous. This offense is not good enough to make the deep run some of the experts are predicting. In fact, I originally had these guys a few slots down until I took a second look at their player stats.
8.Texas
Why: Once they reach the sweet 16, they'll play every game in Texas. They've got outstanding guards.
Why not: I just don't buy them. I don't think Augustin is good enough to carry them. I think Rick Barnes is a sub-par coach. Most of all, the Big 12 has just one title in over 50 years. Did you realize that? The conference is clearly overrated, especially in March. This Texas team is not going to be the one to disrupt that trend.
7. Tennessee
Why: Bruce Pearl is a really charismatic guy. No but seriously, this is a good team. They've beaten a lot of good teams over the course of the season. Chris Lofton might be the best shooter in the tournament.
Why not: Chris Lofton is their best player. He's too one dimensional to be That Guy who carries the team to a title. At the end of the day, this is a live by the three, die by the three team. And even with all those impressive non-conference wins, I don't think they'll survive a loaded region.
6. Kansas
Why: A lot of depth and a lot of talent. Arthur and Rush will both play in the NBA. They lead America in scoring margin, a key stat for predicting tournament success.
Why not: And good heavens they've been horrendous in the tournament! Brandon Rush is not great enough to carry them. See also: the Big 12 stat under Texas above.
5. Duke
Why: When they beat the Tar Heels at Chapel Hill in the first meeting this year, they were the best team in the nation at that moment. That was a dominant display. Coach K has changed his style this year, going with a deeper bench than ever before, and they all can play. Several players can lead them in scoring on any given night. Paulus has improved as a point guard, and is finally showing signs of the clutch shooting he was known for at CBA (Syracuse). I love Scheyer. Finally, no one is paying any attention to them.
Why not: They've got a bunch of great players, but they lack that one personality that puts them over the top. DeMarcus Nelson is a fine college basketball player, but he isn't that guy. Duke hasn't been "Duke" in a few years.
4. Memphis
Why: Great starting five with perhaps the best offense in the tournament. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a stud, and Derrick Rose could be a great NBA PG. Callipari is a great coach.
Why not: Two huge reasons. First, I don't believe playing a Conference-USA season has made Memphis battle tested enough to win six straight. Look at it this way: after their first round game, every game will be harder than any they played in the conference this year. Second, they're terrible free throw shooting. That is not necessarily fatal...unless you are as bad as this team is.
3. Georgetown
Why: This was my pick at the beginning of the season, and they've held up their end so far, winning the toughest conference. They've got a nice balance on offense with Hibbert inside and three-point shooting on the perimeter. Their coach is an offensive genius: when the Hoyas are clicking, it's beautiful to watch. Having said all that, the Hoyas win with defense. Everyone plays hard and well on that end of the court. Hibbert could use a strong tournament to vault into the NBA draft lottery.
Why not: Hibbert's had a terrible year. He disappears on offense, be it his fault, his teammate's, or JTIII's. If he has a bad game, and the perimeter shooting doesn't pick up the slack, the Hoyas will lose, whether they're playing Kansas or Maryland-Baltimore County.
2. North Carolina
Why: I'll admit it; Tyler Hansborough has been the best player in college basketball this year. When the best player in basketball has great talent around him, that very often leads to the title. I don't believe a dominant post player is the difference-maker in the championship. You have to have a guard that can take over the game. Carolina has a couple of them. Based on the buzz I'm hearing, this is the favorite to win it all.
Why not: Roy Williams. Even post-championship, he proved he still has the touch of death with the Georgetown debacle last year. Even though they get to stay in Carolina, that East bracket is tough, with perhaps the strongest 2-seed and 3-seed. Even the 4 or 5-seed could be trouble.
1. UCLA
Why: The last couple weeks my gut has been saying UCLA. I said it before the Sports Guy did today: Ben Howland might be the best coach in college basketball right now. After two straight final four appearances, both ending with losses to Florida, it's time for Howland to take these guys over the top. They win with defense, with everyone chipping in on offense. They have at least three starters who could be drafted. Coming out of the Pac-10, which is stronger than it has been for a while, they feel like a team of destiny with their success in close games.
Why not: They've played a lot of close games down the stretch. It takes as much luck as skill to make three straight final fours. They're a little banged up. Frankly, I'm not sold on them. But there's no one else...
Labels: NCAA basketball
posted by Prof. A at 7:52 PM
2 Comments:
You are effing insane if you think Memphis and/or Duke is making it past the 3rd round. Conference USA is a mid-major my friend. They are slightly better than Butler. Also if Duke shots worse than 40% from 3 , they will lose. I forsee a second round upset to Arizona/WVU.
Funny how you don't have Stanford anywhere on your list. Can't wait for their run so I can point at you and chant "you, you, you!" whilst pointing.
These were teams that I could close my eyes and picture hoisting the trophy. Can you do that with Stanford, a team that features a pair of tall white twins? I can't. As my bracket of integrity shows, I like Stanford to make a run. But not the title. No way.
I stand by where I ranked Duke and Memphis. They could hoist the trophy. Memphis is a lot like that good St. Joe's team that made it to the elite eight and lost an epic battle a few years back. That's how I think the Tigers will go down. Fighting, in the regional final.
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