Wednesday, December 20, 2006

On Barry Zito

I'm not sorry the Mets didn't trade Lastings Milledge for Barry Zito this summer. New York was the best squad in the final four of baseball and could have won the whole thing. If Barry Zito had been on the team, Oliver Perez would certainly not have pitched when he did and, as a lefty, might not have even been selected to the postseason roster. In fact, he probably would not have even been acquired by the Mets. And this cockeyed optimist still sees Cy Young talent in the 25-year-old Perez, and refuses to remove the "possibly" from in front of the title, "The Possibly Insane Oliver Perez." So hooray for not getting Barry last year.

However, after a discussion with my brother, I'm fully in support of the Mets investing in Zito's services via free agency. I believe he could be a rich man's Al Leiter for the next 6 to 8 years. Frankly, a big money free agent pitcher who is as low a risk as Zito is at this point in his career comes around only once a decade.

First of all, the guy has made virtually every start in his career. It's pretty amazing. Look at his game totals (from ESPN), starting in 2000, his first year up: 14, 35, 35, 35, 34, 35, 34. It's unbelievable. And he threw over 210 innings each of those years. I've read that he's obsessive not only about his physical condition but about his mechanics. His delivery is not high-stress.

His numbers, for the most part, have been pretty consistent. You could even characterize the season's he's had by tiers. Out of his 6 seasons, 4 of them have been second tier caliber: ERA in the mid to high 3's, 14+ W's. 1 of them was third tier caliber: 2004- 4.48 ERA, 11-11. And one of them was top tier caliber: 2002- 2.75ERA, 23-5.

Tossing out the high and the low outliers, you've got a second tier pitcher who never gets hurt and is only 28-years-old with only 6 and a half seasons on his arm. Barry's not an ace, but next year, if Pedro can come back healthy, he won't have to be. And after Pedro's contract is up in two years, the Mets will be in the market for an ace anyway. Plus, they've got some nice young arms in the system.

Bottom line: Barry may not be Latino, but Omar should still sign him.

3 Comments:

Blogger Chris said...

I completely agree. I want Seattle to sign him.

But, I mean, there's a deeply unsettling commentary on the price of talent in MLB when stability — not spectacular talent — is the motivating force for signing what would be baseball's third ever $100 million contract for a pitcher.

If Zito signs for $100M, Zambrano is going for $125M plus next off-season. Minimum.

12/21/2006 8:04 PM  
Blogger Chris said...

Er. Zito for $126M means, geez, I cannot even imagine. $150M for Z?

12/28/2006 2:58 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

My mom is so pleased. You should have seen her face when she saw the story on ESPN. Of course, she's not paying the contract.

1/10/2007 11:48 PM  

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