Big East Preview

Syracuse enters the Big East doing everything fantastically...except rebounding (The Orange are 104 in the nation). It's not if but when that deficiency will catch up to them in conference play. Let's take a look at every game on the slate from now until Louisville closes out the season in the dome on March 3.


Dec 28 - vs. Seton Hall: The Jeremy Hazell Can't Hurt Us Anymore Game (Note: I wrote this before tonight's game. Any accuracy is purely a reflection of my brilliance.)
Rebounding problem? - Nah. Syracuse just needs to keep the rebounding battle close. Their turnover margin can more than make up for a small rebounding deficit. In this game, I think the Pirates out-rebound the Orange by 2.
Opponent to watch - Aaron Cosby. You'd think I'd say Herb Pope, but I see the Orange dominating underneath. Something like...15 blocks. Give Melo, um, 10 of those. As long as Cosby stays cool from outside, the Orange will be fine. 2 for 7 from three or something like that should do it.
Prediction - WIN


Jan 1 - @ DePaul: The Road Warm-Up
Rebounding problem? - No chance. (215th in the nation)
Opponents to watch - Sophomores Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young. Averaging 18.5 and 17.4 ppg, respectively, these guys might actually make DePaul a challenge if they get any talent around them.
Prediction - WIN


Jan 4 - @ Providence: The Trap Game
Rebounding problem? - Yes. (31st)
Opponent to watch - LaDontae Henton. "ME LADONTAE! ME LIKE REBOUND!" Some guys are just born to grab missed shots. The Freshman is bringing down 8.8 rpg.
Prediction - WIN. Providence breezed through an easy non-conference schedule. They lost to St. John's tonight and will lose at Georgetown again before the likely-#1 Orange come to town. Better to give this young team its lumps early in the season and avoid them late; they might be rounding into form by conference tournament time.


Jan 7 - vs. Marquette: The Revenge game
Rebounding problem? - Oh yeah! (78th)
Opponent to watch - Jae Crowder. He's baaa-ack! That dreadlocked dude who put up 16 & 7 against the Orange off the bench in the tourney last year is now starting for a fantastic Marquette team. DJO (Darius Johnson-Odom) is still there too. I recommend watching them in non-SU games when you can appreciate their hustle and game against someone else.
Prediction - WIN. Scoop doesn't forget. He and fellow senior KJ take care of the Golden Eagles this time.


Jan 11 - @ Villanova: The You Used to Be So Tough Game.
Rebounding problem? - Yes. (21st)
Opponent to watch - Maalik Wayns. The familiar faces are gone. Junior guard Wayns leads the team in scoring (17.4) and assists (5.2).
Prediction - WIN. Like the Providence game, I was tempted to go the other way in this one, but also like the Providence game, I think this team will improve as the year unfolds.


Jan 14 - vs. Providence: The Flat Home Game
Rebounding problem? - Yes. (31st)
Opponent to watch - Bryce Cotton this time. He's shooting 43% from three point range. If he gets hot under the dome, there could be trouble.
Prediction - WIN. The students won't be back yet. This Saturday evening game will see a decent crowd, but it will be one expecting an easy win. It will get restless when its not, but will lift the Orange late.


Jan 16 - vs. Pittsburgh: The We Never Beat Pitt Game
Rebounding problem? - Big time. (25th)
Opponent to watch - Travon Woodall. Pitt slipped up against Wagner without the Junior point guard. He's back from injury now, leading an offense that collects 17.4 assists per game (13th in the nation).
Prediction - LOSS. This seems about right. Pitt is stumbling at the moment, but Jamie Dixon will right the ship by the time the Panthers visit Syracuse. This Monday night game will be tough and close, a classic Big East game (soon to be classic ACC game). And low scoring...a classic Pitt game. Scoop will make a horrible error down the stretch. Melo will foul out. And the Orange will finally fall.


Jan 21 - @ Notre Dame: The Never Scary Irish Game
Rebounding problem? - Not at all! (227th)
Opponent to watch - Eric Atkins. With Tim Abromaitis done for the season (ACL), the sophomore guard Atkins is picking up the scoring slack.
Prediction - WIN. This feels like an NIT team.


Jan 23 - @ Cincinnati: The Glad You're Not Xavier Game
Rebounding problem? - A chance. (129th)
Opponent to watch - Yancy Gates. If I learned anything from Antonio Gates's college basketball career, its to always be afraid of big guys from Ohio named Gates.
Prediction -WIN. And enter the gauntlet.


---BEGIN GAUNTLET: 2012---

Jan 28 - vs. West Virginia: The Bobby Huggins Always Forgets to Prepare for the 2-3 Zone Game
Rebounding problem? - Definitely. (34th)
Opponent to watch - Darryl Bryant and Kevin Jones. The seniors have never beaten Syracuse in four tries. The forward Jones leads the Wildcats with 21 ppg, but it will be the guard Bryant who could really hurt the Orange.
Prediction - WIN. It's Bobby Huggins! He'll forget SU plays a zone, as always!


Feb 4 - @ St. John's: The Battle for MSG
Rebounding problem? - No. (172nd)
Opponent to watch - Moe Harkless. The Freshman swingman put up 32 points in his Big East debut.
Prediction - LOSS. SU will probably be the 9th ranked team the Johnnies face this season. Maybe the 2nd #1 team and 3rd or 4th top-5 team. St. John's will pull off one of those games. I think it's the Orange.


Feb 8 - vs. Georgetown: The Hoyas in the Dome
Rebounding problem? - Perhaps. (96th)
Opponent to watch - Jason Clark. The Senior guard is hitting 39% of his threes this season.
Prediction - WIN. This Orange team won't lose two games in a row all season.


Feb 11 - vs. UConn: The Rivalry Game
Rebounding problem? - Massive. (19th)
Opponent to watch - Jeremy Lamb. Perhaps the one player in the conference who will DEFINITELY be the best player on the court even when he shares it with the Orange.
Prediction - LOSS. With Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond, the Huskies can match SU's height. Calhoun and company spoil Saturday afternoon in the Dome.


Feb 13 - @ Louisville: The Kyle Kuric Kills the Orange Game
Rebounding problem? - Big time. (9th)
Opponent to watch - Kyle Kuric. In my nightmares, Kyle Kuric is always dunking on the 2010 Syracuse Orange in their first game as the #1 ranked team. He just keeps dunking and dunking. And then I wake up. And it turns out it was real.
Prediction - WIN. Kyle Kuric finishes with zero dunks as the Cardinals fail to keep up with the Orange offense.


 ---END GAUNTLET: 2012---

Feb 19 - @ Rutgers: The Last Easy Road Game
Rebounding problem? - No. (103rd)
Opponent to watch - Eli Carter. The Freshman guard is second on the team in scoring.
Prediction - WIN.


Feb 22 - vs. South Florida: The Last Easy Game
Rebounding problem? - No. (Didn't bother to look up their NCAA rank)
Opponent to watch - None. Just skip this game and go spend some time with your family.
Prediction - WIN.


Feb 25 - @ UConn: The Rivalry Game
Rebounding problem? - Rut roh. (19th)
Opponent to watch - Shabazz Napier. The other UConn sophomore can also put up points quickly.
Prediction - WIN. Road team takes it in this year's series.


March 3 - vs. Louisville: The Kyle Kuric Kills the Orange Game
Rebounding problem? - Yikes. (9th)
Opponent to watch - Peyton Siva. The Junior point guard isn't a scorer, but he is the quarterback of the team.
Prediction - WIN. Out of the ranked Big East teams, I think Louisville is the most overrated. They lack the 1-3 super-talented players the other great Big East teams have.


So there you have it. SU goes 15-3.

On second thought ...
Boy, 15-3 seems high, doesn't it? Actually, maybe 13-5 is a closer guess, and still good enough for best in the Big East. Give them one loss to Louisville and one more upset somewhere along the way.

Don't Start Dion

In his Sophomore year, Dion Waiters has made The Leap. He might even be the second best player on the team. Amazingly, he comes off the bench. And that is how it should be for the rest of the season.

Waiters was fantastic in tonight's tug-of-war match down in Raleigh. Most of his 22 points were momentum swingers, including the 3 of 6 he hit from three-point range. On a team loaded with scorers, he's now had double-digit points in eight of eleven games. He's quick and athletic, and he's playing the zone extremely well (see: 6 steals versus George Washington, and his 2.4 steals per game).

His cousin, Scoop Jardine, meanwhile, has hit his ceiling. We know what we're going to get from the fifth-year senior. Tonight was fairly typical. He gave the Orange some good stuff (7 of 9 shooting), some spectacular stuff (the two threes on either side of the 7-minute mark that helped extend a 3-point lead to 11), and some ugly stuff (4 turnovers, including one where he paused to beat himself up for the play instead of hustling back to defend the ensuing Wolfpack fast break).

It's easy to compare the two guards and say Dion is more talented, therefore he should be starting over Scoop. You could also make the argument he should be starting over Brandon Triche, who is in the midst of a 3-game funk. Actually, Triche's last big game was the 20 he had against Florida, when Dion scored only 2 points. Triche had only one tonight. Lately, it seems like if one of those two is playing well, it comes at the expense of the other. But that trend probably won't hold. Triche made The Leap last year at the beginning of the Big East regular season, developing into a consistent scorer. He had double-digit points in all but 5 Big East regular season games. He'll get his offense going again.

Dion could start over either Triche or Scoop. He IS more talented. But Boeheim will never do it this season. And he shouldn't. He's not playing a video game. He's playing with human beings. Triche has started every game of his career at Syracuse. Why undermine him with a benching, no matter how good Dion is playing?

There will, of course, be more talk of playing Dion over Scoop as the season unfolds. Actually, it started after SU's loss to Marquette in the NCAAs last spring, when Dion scored a team-high 18 as Scoop went for only 8 points and took a horrible three-point shot late in the game. In the video-game version of the 2011-12 Orange season, you start Dion.

In real life, you need Scoop in the first five. You cannot bench a fifth-year senior who is your heart, soul, and voice. You shouldn't do it in a normal year. And you can't do it this year, with the Bernie Fine scandal hanging over the program and the head coach. Scoop is talking for the team off the court, and he is setting the tone for the team on the court, in games and (I would imagine) in practice.

Scoop has to start. He HAS to start. He paid his dues, and was once a talented sophomore coming off the bench to provide a little offensive spark. Now this is his team. It is Scoop's team, more than, perhaps, it has been any senior Orange's team since Gerry was proving he wasn't overrated.

You have to start Scoop. You just have to.

Scoop-haters can take some solace in this - Boeheim may never change his starting lineup, but he has shown that he will ride the two hottest hands out of those three talented guards. Triche was off tonight; he only played 17 minutes. Scoop was horrible against Virginia Tech; he played 20 minutes. Dion got 14 minutes against Florida. One of those three will sit in crunch time in any given game. And you know why it will work? Because Scoop set the tone for cheering on your teammates in that Virginia Tech game. Unlike the potty-mouthed Freshman Dion (may that version rest in peace), Scoop cheered happily from the bench during Dion's pivotal 9-point barrage midway through the 2nd half against Va Tech. It is possible to have too much talent on a basketball team, but that problem isn't going to afflict this team. Boeheim will start the upper-classmen, and the hot hand will get the playing time.

Dion is going to have a great career. Next year, he will be the star on a talented team. But this year, like it or not, Scoop is the leader. His play might drive you crazy at points. He might even cost Syracuse a critical game. But the Orange aren't winning the title if they change up their lineup.

Still don't like it? Well, try saying this out loud: "Our second five is better than your starting five." That's pretty fun, no? And it's probably true when directed at 90% of the teams in D-I. Dion-MCW-Southerland-CJ-Keita. Good times!

Interesting Timothy Tebow

I love watching interesting athletes. To be precise (a Tintin reference, incidentally), I love watching athletes who make things interesting. Vladimir Guerrero in his prime, when he swung - and hit - everything? I'm not changing the channel. Apolo Ohno surrounded by angry South Koreans on the short track? I'm on the edge of my seat.

Hakim Warrick was my favorite SU basketball player ever because he was the most interesting talent I've ever seen come through the dome. Gerry was a clutch shooter, but there are plenty of those in the NCAA. Melo was a dominant scorer destined for NBA stardom, but there is a dominant player every year or so. Hak's dunks were...unique. Amazing. Interesting.

I read everything Bill Simmons writes, and since Simmons writes a lot about the NBA, I've gotten back into pro basketball. There are relatively few players in the NBA compared to baseball or football, so it's easy to know a little about a majority of the guys on the court in any given game. And, guided by Simmons, its easy to find something interesting to watch in many random regular season games that I happen to catch, and certainly in the long postseason. The same thing is drawing my back to the Premiership, via the brilliantly hilarious podcast, the Men in Blazers. Roger Bennett and Michael Davies are guiding me towards interesting stuff to watch for in EPL matches. All of a sudden I'm TiVo'ing British soccer and loving it.

Tiger Woods in his prime. Michael Jordan in his prime. The two best bets in my lifetime to make things interesting, especially down the stretch. If I listed my top 10 greatest sports memories, those two would dominate my list.

I love watching Timothy Tebow play football right now because he is so freaking (to borrow his word) interesting.

Yes, I think it's cool he's a class act, a good guy, and a Christian. But whatever. That's just an added twist. No, I don't think he's single-handedly winning these games. The rest of the Broncos are playing great, especially their defense, but especially Matt Prater. John Fox is coaching well. Nor do I think God is manipulating the results because Timothy Tebow is a Christian. As Chuck Klosterman suggests in his brilliant take on Timothy, "I doubt many Christians believe that God is unfairly helping Tebow win games in the AFC West... However, I get the impression that especially antagonistic secularists assume this assumption infiltrates every aspect of Tebow's celebrity... Their negative belief is that penitent, conservative Americans look at Tebow and see a man being 'rewarded' for his faith." Not to go into too much theological thought right now, but the God of my understanding was fixing NFL games, he'd work it so the poor and meek won. Instead of some home-schooled, rich, white boy, the Buffalo Bills would be pulling off miraculous, come-from-behind victories.

I don't think, however, that Timothy's faith is what makes him so interesting. It is certainly central to a lot of the popular discussion about him, but it is not driving that discussion. What is driving interest is that Timothy Tebow is interesting when he steps on the football field. And that has a little to do with his religion, but it also has a little to do with how horrible his throwing mechanics are, how tough a runner he is, and, most of all, how he keeps winning these crazy game.

Eventually, the Broncos will lose. Probably this weekend, when they host the New England Patriots. The Broncos will probably make the playoffs, and they will probably lose their first game there. Timothy Tebow might not develop much as an NFL quarterback beyond what he is doing right now. The rest of the NFL will adjust - it always does. They will come up with a game plan for him. It is quite possible that Timothy Tebow will never be as highly regarded as he is at this exact moment. But I will be watching Broncos-Patriots this Sunday. It is going to be interesting.

*   *   *

Wednesday night, the NFL Network replayed the Bears-Broncos game from Sunday, editing it down to its essentials, adding in NFL Films footage as well as in-game audio from a miked-up Timothy Tebow and post-game audio from the press conference. It was riveting. Here are my thoughts, recorded as I watched the replay:

• The Broncos moved the ball fairly well in the first quarter. It seemed like by the end of the first the Bears D-line started doing a better job of keeping the shape of the pocket. That prevented Timothy from rolling and extending the play. Having a guy like Urlacher spy on Timothy is important, but the key is keeping containment on the pocket.

• As Margaret Kramer (Lauren Bacall) says in the famous and much-loved 1996 comedy, My Fellow Americans, "Don't say freaking, [Timothy]. If you have to use the 'F' word, go for the gold!"

• If you block well, you can run steadily on the Broncos, but don't expect to break any big plays. The Bears' TD drive took forever. So you can run on Denver, but you can't run away.

• Hey! Marion Barber is religious too! He shouts "Hallelujah!" repeatedly as he struts around the sideline after the touchdown.

• Mike Tice is the Bear's offensive line coach! I bet he has some great Timothy Tebow stories. "One time...I was driving in my car...and I saw Tim Tebow drinking a frappucino in a Starbucks! I waved at him...and I think he saw me! It was awesome!"

• Actually, Caleb Hanie reminds me a lot of Timothy Tebow, only without the running ability and the drastically improved play in the fourth quarter. Basically, he's not very good at throwing a football.

• Big play at 11:41. Caleb Hanie misses a wide open Marion Barber on third down. I mean WIDE open. Fox's Daryl Johnston said if he completes that pass, Barber is STILL running, and I think that's as true now, on Wednesday night, as it was Sunday evening! Immediately after that turning point, NFL Network cuts to a clip of Timothy Tebow reassuring his teammates, "We'll be all right!"

• "I don't care how this game is going. This is your quarter! You're about to make this happen, dog! Remember I tol' you!" -Willis McGahee to Timothy Tebow. The pair are holding hands, as Timothy stares at McGahee with a dazed smile that seems to say, "Wow! I can't believe God blessed me with the opportunity to play pro football with black dudes from the streets! This is the best!"

• Around the 6 minute mark Timothy Tebow has a ridiculously awkward conversation with his arm draped around one of his wide receivers. "And you're about to be... the hero of the game!" Yeah! I think in that pause he was trying to come up with some street lingo, something like "You're about to be the shizzle, my nizzle!" but he thought better of it.

• OK. The Broncos just got the ball with 4:30 to go, and I STILL don't believe they can come back, even though I know they do.

• Bill Belichick isn't dumb enough to run a prevent defense against Timothy Tebow in the fourth this weekend, is he? Someone is going to figure this out...

• At 2:08 Demaryius Thomas catches a TD on a beautiful, BEAUTIFUL play by Timothy Tebow. Steps up in the pocket, slides to the right, feels the line of scrimmage and finds the wide open receiver late in the corner. As it turns out, they needed every second; Timothy had to score that TD on that play, getting it in before the two minute warning. No timeouts left for the Broncos.

• If you've watched these Denver games, you know Matt Prater has been brilliant, and as valuable as any Bronco. How good was his onsides kick that Denver didn't get? So close...

• Lovie Smith threw Barber under the bus in the press conference clip NFL Network played. "You gotta know the situation. You can't run out of bounds." Marion Barber deserves a lot of blame for running out of bounds, but not ALL the blame. Barber is a hard, scrappy runner. Why send him on any kind of run towards the boundary in that situation? He should be running straight up the middle. 

• I felt like Timothy could have gotten a few more yards on that last play before the Prater kick, but he didn't want to risk getting tackled in bounds. Smart play.

• Matthew. Prater.

• Timothy tells Von Miller he's proud of him, and to go do this thing. He does this all with an awkward earnestness, and a relaxed, almost inhuman niceness. Wow. He is SO Christian.

• "OOOOHHHHHH! OHHHHHHHH! I told you Tebow!" -Jeremiah Johnson after the Barber fumble, slamming Timothy on the shoulder pads. I can't see Timothy's face, but I think he's probably smirking, and thinking to himself, "I'm friends with charismatic black people! This is AWESOME!"

• I didn't notice this the first time through, but Matt Prater's "Red Line" in overtime is on the Bronco's 47. That's a 70 yard field goal. I mean...I believe it, but that's still hilarious.

• Ho-hum. Prater's game-winner ends up being only 51-yards. It's not perfectly kicked, either. It went slightly, slightly right of center.

• After the game, Timothy tried out "dog" as he shook hands with a few African-American Bears. They seemed to take it well, so maybe going forward Timothy will get a bit bolder in his vocal embrace of black culture. THAT should be interesting.