I apologize that it has taken me so long to respond to the news that Donte has entered the NBA draft. I was out of the country.
(I happened to catch the London Marathon on Sunday. If you've never been to a major marathon, I recommend doing it once in your life. It's quite a spectacle. Something about tens of thousands of runners all killing themselves together, while even more people urge every one of them on from the side of the route... it's strangely exhilarating. Also strangely moving was the sight of the last stragglers still plodding along a few hour later, long after the crowds had dispersed. Marathons are strange. I hope to complete one someday soon.)
I haven't read any quotes from Donte or anyone else. All I know is he's declared for the NBA draft. My brother tells me Boeheim talked him into not signing an agent. That's probably wise.
I really believe, from what I heard and saw, that Donte had decided during the season that he would return to the team. I suspect that someone changed his mind. Perhaps it was family and friends, or perhaps it was an agent. Someone got in his ear and in his mind that the money was too good to pass up. So he flipped and declared. Now you've come to me looking for answers...
Would his stock have risen substantially if he stayed another year? Absolutely. He would have been the best player on a fantastic team. He might have led the Big East in scoring, and who knows how far he could have led the Orange in the tournament. Plus, he had a lot of areas that he could still work on at this level. I think he could have pushed as high as the top 5. In other words, I think this decision costs him money as far as his first contract is concerned.
Where will he be drafted? Chad Ford has him at 18. I think that's about right. I can also see him rising, not falling, as scouting drool over his combination of height and range. Let's face it, the upside is there.
How will he do in the pros, and how much will leaving early hurt him? I think that if Donte had stayed one more year, he would have developed more confidence in his game overall. His defense was improving, and he was starting to develop his inside game late in the season. One more year in college would have been the right amount of polish to become a quality NBA player quickly. That said, I don't think his overall career will hit a lower ceiling having left a year too soon. In the long run, he'll be a fine pro. He's even got an outside shot at being a star. I don't think the odds of him becoming a star are changed much either way by him leaving now. It probably has more to do with the team and the situation he ends up in than whether he plays one or two years.
Would Syracuse have been a better team with him than it will without him? Probably, although there is
Ewing Theory potential here. Name me one key game when Donte Greene took over on offense down the stretch? He didn't, and that's a big reason why the Orange missed the tournament. Also, never have I ever gone into a season wondering how Boeheim will distribute playing time to the extent that I am going into the 08-09 season. Suddenly, we have no power forwards, but now I think Andy Rautins may start and Rick Jackson will play alongside Arinze Onuaku a lot - a fearsome duo. Still, even though Flynn won Freshman of the Year, Donte Greene was and would have been our most dominant player.
Is Donte ready for the NBA? As ready as 75% of the guys who will be drafted. He's a good guy, and he'll apply himself to learning how to be a good pro. He's young enough that it will be four or five years before we can fully evaluate his decision to turn pro now.
Can you sum that all up for me? I wasn't listening. Donte's decision to leave early means he'll get drafted significantly later than he would have, and thus costs him significant money for his first contract. However, he's good enough now to start playing and learning in the NBA. Syracuse, though it has lost a huge offensive weapon, is still in very good shape for next season.
Labels: Donte Greene, Syracuse Orange basketball
